·YEARBOOK OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS - 1953 PART 1 - PRODUCTION Part 1 provides basic statiala on world agricultural production. It givet authoritative Infor mation on hand use, agricultural population cops, llvestock numbers and products, food supplier and their uulization and on commerdal fortilbers, posudder, and agricultural machinery It ikke Indudes the more important series of agricultural commodity prices in many countries # wal us Index numbers of prices received and pald by farmors and of agricultural production PART 11 - TRADE The second part is a bralc reference work on world trade in agricultural products and give mtatistlas of the Imports and exports of the major agricultural commodities. It Indudes reglom and world total computed from official and unofildal Information. For some major ammodlues data are given by trade season as well u by alandar yar This two-volume yearbook is valuable reference work for importers, exporters and com merdal houses, as well as offidal bodles concorned with food and agriculture. It is avullable from any bookidler or from any of the FAO ales agents listed on the back cover of this publication Prias Ench part $3.50 or 172.66 FAO STATISTICAL PUBLICATIONS Monthly Bulletin of Agricultural Economics and Statletia Single casy $0.50 21.60. Annual subscription $500 258. This bulletin glver tatsula of production trade and prices based on Information wallable on the 25th of the month proceding that of lguc. Each numbor contains one or two artides on mat tors of current Interest in the field of agricultural tronomics, and a section of commodity notes Editions in English French, and Spanish Sample coples of the bulletin will bo snt on request Second World Food Survey $0.50, 23.60 A broad statistical survey of how the world s population li courtshed Agung the unsthafa cory prezent situation are sot desirable food consumptlon targets country by country for 1960. In EnglishFrench, and Spanish. $2.50, 121.64 Yourbook of Forest Products Stadstios 1953 This soventh laue of FAO s forestry yarbook contains new Information for 1952 and revised data for 1951 from more than 100 countries The text is in English French and Spanish and the table in English and French $3.50 17460 Yarbook of Asheries Statista 1950-51 Contalna tables on atch, vuillador, external trade and fishing craft. Text In English, French la prop and Spanish and tables in English and French The 1952 53 edition of this yearbook tion.

·PRESENTED
BY
SETH I UW.OT
THE STATE OF
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
1 9 54
REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
ROME, ITALY
AUGUST 1957

·NOTE
The statistical material in this publlation has been
prepared from such information is has been avallable
to FAO not later than 15 July 1954

·TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Foredord I Summary 3 World Review and Outlook Regional Problems and Policies Commodity Review and Outlook 5 7 10 II World Rcoiew and Outlook 15 1B 18 21 21 21 28 30 31 The Supply Situation Agricultural Production Long-term Production Trends. Prospects for 1954/55 International Trade In Agricultural Products The Problem of Surpluses Food Consumption and Nutrition Trends in Food Consumption Patterns The World Economic Situation in 1953/54 and the Demand for Agricultural Products The Economic Situstion In 1953/54 in Exch Region Prices of Agricultural Products Farm Prices Retail Food Prices Farm Incomes Investment and Credit The Demand Outlook Summary 36 38 40 43 44 46 49 51 54 III Regional Problems and Policles 57 61 61 62 Western Europe Changing Conditions in 1953/54 The Reorientation of Policies Prospects and long term Problems Eastern Europe and the USSR. Policy Changes Changes in Consumption and Trade. Forest Products 67 69 70 ·70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 77 79 81 81 82 North Ameria Surplus Disposal Adjustment of Output The New Agricultural Policy of the United States Outlook. Latin America Basic Policy Problems Over all Trade and Payments Position Domestic Demand and Prices Oceania The United Kingdom Markets. Alternative Export Markets Domestic Consumption Levels Prices and Future Prospects The Far East Problems and Programs of Development. Changing Pattern of Agricultural Production and Trade. improvement of Supplies of Basic Foods The First Five Year Plan of India Development Problems and Policies of Pakistan Economic Difficulties of Ceylon and Malaya Reduction In Export Incomes of Burma and Tholland Transitional Economles of Indonesia and the Philippines Industrial Progress and Improvement of Food Consumption in Japan Economic Development in China Near East Production Trade Consumption Adjustments in Food and Agricultural Policy Afria The Diversitation of Economies The Development of Internal Markets The Improvement of Transport The Quality of Production Food Consumption and Nutrition 83 84 84 85 AS 85 85 86 86 88 89 89 90 90 92 93 93 94 94 95 97 IV Reoler and Outlook by Commodities 92 101 103 Whent Supplies and Trade Prices and Marketing Developments Outlook Course Grains Supplies and Trade Outlook 103 103 105 Rico Current Situation Outlook 105 106 107 ·Sugar Production Trade and Prices Consumption Outlook. Livestock Products Meat Dalry Products and Eggs Review of World Fisheries Major Producers Medlum Producers Selected smaller Producers Utilization Herring Sardines Anchovies etc. Cod Hake Haddock, etc. Salmon Tuna, Bonitos and Mackerel Fats Olls and Oilseed Fresh Fruit Production and Trade Trade Pollcy Outlook Orled Vine Frult and Wine Dried Vine Fruit. Wine Coffee Current Situation Outlook. Tea Current Situation Outlook Cocoz Production Prices and Trade Outlook Tobacco Supplies and Trade Prices and Consumption Outlook. Cotton Current Situation Outlook Wool Current Situation Outlook Jute. Current Situation Outlook 108 108 109 110 110 111 111 112 115 115 115 115 116 116 116 117 117 117 120 120 121 121 122 122 123 123 123 124 125 126 127 127 127 128 128 129 129 131 131 131 131 134 134 134 136 137 137 138 ·138 138 139 Rubber Current Situation Outlook Hard Fibers Current Situation Outlook Farm Machinery Near and Far East Latin Ameria Forest Products Recent Production Changes Roundwood Sawn Wood Plywood and Fiberboard Pulp and Pulp Products 140 140 141 141 141 142 143 144 145 147 148 149 Anner Table 151 - Figures Estimated World Production of Major Agricultural Products. 20 il Postwar Developments in the Volume of World Trade In Foodstuffs and Beverages 25 26 !Il Wheat Supplies in North America and the Accumulation of Stocks 29 IV Food and Population Distribution of the population of the World Ac cording to Dally Calorie Intake 32 V Food and Population Distribution of the Population of the World According to Dally intake of Animal Protein 33 M Per Caput Supplies of Animal Protein in Relation to Per Caput National Income 35 VII Per Caput Consumption of Cereals and Roots In Relation to Per Caput National Income 36 VIII Per Caput Supply of Cereals for All Purposes (including Livestock Feeding) and for Direct Human Consumption 37 IX. Movement of prices of Selected Agricultural and Forestry Products 41 X. USA Distribution of Retall Cost of Domestially Produced Food between Farm Value and Markeung Costs 45 XI Agricultural Incomes in the United States United Kingdom and Australia at Current Price 48 XII Monthly Average Prices of Grun July 1952 June 1954 102 X!! World Imports of Rice and Net Imports of Rice and Other Gralns In Six Far Eastern Countries 108 XIV Monthly Average Prices of Fats und Oils in International Markets 1951 54 119 XV Monthly Average Prices of Cotton (Induding Export Taxes) Rubber Prices in the United States and Malaya 1951 1954 139 XVIL Pace of Forest Products 146 134 ·FOREWORD Tho yeur 103 marted a turning point in the portmar food and agricultural dtoution. With the abundant harrests of 1932/03 world produation for the Ant time since the mur caught up with tho growth of world population. But the expendon of prodaction mu unesenly distribut ed, and in 1953 hours varplures of certain commodities accumulated in pomo countries, though thrro ru little Improvement in tho diet of millions of Inadequately fed peoplo over large areas of the world. This was tho dtuation which inced tho reprouentatives of Member Gormonents at the Botenth Seulon of the FAO Conference which met in Rome in November 18.33 Tho Conforence not itself two main problems in this field fint how the purplus stocks which had already accumulated could beat bo diapored of without diuorganizing world agricultural prodoo tion and trade, and second, what would be done to ensure that world production would continuo to cxpand in line with rapidly growing world require menta without adding to ointing or creating new surplumon. Both problems are closely intor-relat ed and noithor is of a character which permits of . quick or euy solution loverthelcas progres has been mado. To mnist in dealing with the Art problem tho Conference made rocommandation which hure now led to the wetting up in Tuhington of extend ing Bub-Committeo of tho FAO Committee on Commodity Problems in order to provido regular forum for later-governamental conultations on agri culturul surplumu and sorriu dlopoul. Here the problem an be kept under conttauqut rosior ud any time of hardship realting from poplo di pomal operations brought up for camination. On the second problem, the Conference recogniz ed that the time had pead hen food produe tion must bo increased by all pordible means in order to overcome tho perusteat postuar short ages and emphasized that from now on further espansion should bo closely geared to market domandh, without howoror losing dght of nutri tional roquirements. It theroforo recommended that all governments should rorlof their food and agricultunl policies in the light of tho new circumstances. It recommended aloo that FAO whould provido facilities for periodic international consultations on a rogłonal us well as on a world bales to enable governments to co-ordinate their policies as closely u powolblo with fall knowledgo of what mu being planned in other parts of tho world. This too le bolng done The provent report rortions the more recent de Felopments in the world food and agricultural dtuation and also tho immediate Outlook. In 103/01 world production continued to expand. Barplus, cepocially of wheat, became moro bur darame in rome trous, and in there areu farin prices and farm Income tended to decline. In other parts of the world, howovor supplier utro not exceelvo and efforts to opend production vero continded and in sono auses intendfied. Tho ontlook for 1054/05 auggesta noontial chango in this altaation, which is rummarized un Chapter I of the report and rostored moro falls on a world bads in Chapter II Jany governments are now beginning to roshape thotr agricultural policies to the now cironm stanice. But tho stuation is not to amo in all parts of the world thoro ar condiderable dif ferences in the police being adopted. The third chapter of the report is thereforo devoted to a re- Hlow of the main probloms aridng in each region of tho world and of the steps hich aro being taken to meet theto Finally the fourth chaptor coming the present Atuation and outlook for ouche major agricultural commodity Hero too tho duation runs widely and the facts presented emphasizo ugain the need for arefal commodity balance in plans and pol icles for agricultural production and marhoting 1 ·The oror-ill rarvey bringt out tomo encourag Ing dovelopments, and others which are low atio factory On tho orodit do may bo oounted the growlog Awarene of governments of the naturo and Importance of food and agrioultural problems, and of the fact that the problems of no country ounnot be considered in loolatlon from those of its poighbon. On the other band, much poope romains for cover co-operation between countries La framing national polloles full account to all too moldom takon of conditions in other sonntria. Thero is often a toodangy to look to the arport market for the solution of murplus problems, ove of . marginal nature, and to ororlook to como atent tho potentialiter of the dopoeetlo market and tho Toode of the domeetto consumer Although the problems doolt with in this ro port are mainly of 1 fairly short-term charactor affecting the outlook for the next for your, I would ophutze that FAOrexponadbultie abso extend farthor ahoad. It should bo repeated that the prenent altuation to not merely odo of over pro duction and purplur. Oror largo cross of the world Agrloultural production is still wol below the pro war lovel in relation to population Fully half tho world pooplo ero still loadequately housed, clothod and nourished. Tith tho proud of India totalization and koonpledge the dataand for bot. tor standards of Uving it lacresdng and gradually boooming ovanomioully affootivo This togeth er with the unprecedented growth of tho world. population with the wider application of medical rofano, means that nouto shortagou could quickly rappour if there werd ang halt in the stody a pension of world uriculture. Thoro Ls so dgn of any aluckantog in the growth of human roquíro ments, and to moot thom 18 ostrentially not a whort-tart but continuing problem If we fail In its solution tho poslal colloquenced nould be borious indood. As I woo it therefore, FAO, tack is both to uudet gorernments in dealing with tho pronant food and agricultural dtuation, and also to odontor to ensure that tbo vorld. groulton rosources, which are Umited and not expendable, aro sufoguardod and improved to most the ovor-growlog Deoda of futuro gonoration. In agricultura, pret ent and futuro probleme adnot be dirorood, and in thinking and planning for today wo man almo think and plan for tomorrow Maondon PV CARDOT Director General 2 ·Chapter 1 SUMMARY ·anchangnd in rocent years at almost asctly its 1034 38 lovol In 1903 thoro m. marked fall in the trade in cereals, duo mainly to good harvests und smaller import roquiroments in Westom Eu ropo and the Fur Eut But this fall offset by larger shipments of muger vogetablo olls, fralt, tobacoo and coffo Noverthelony, the growth of surplus stocka i in itself ovidence that the growth of onempton did not fully koop pero with inoroudng production. A primary cause scans to be the slow and limitod response of rotall priop lovels to falls in form and wholovalo prloes. It appears that the oontin ood growth of agricultural production and of consumption levels will depend to substantial entent on the poorbility of redudog retail pricom bo moto officient methods of production and mark eting A rocent rurvey show that in many countrios production and distribution costo (including transport and provening) och 4ooount for roughly half the final cost of food to tho onemor Surpluses Price of Agricultural Products Eroon stock of yomo commodities contingiod to eccumulato in 1063/04 partlonlarly in North Amorla, where the valuo of holding of the United States Commodity Crodit Corporation a stocks of yricultural producte rose from $3 000 millions in March 1953 to $6,229 million in March 1964 Cerculacoounted for about 60 percent, and shout alono for about 30 percent of the 1854 total. Whout reprooents the rue of the surplus problem. Stocks of whoat hold by the four main aporting countries (United States, Canada, Australla and Argentina) increanod by pomo 12 mill- Hon tons (33 percent) during 1953/64 and non roprosent about 24 timou their current annual lovel of sports. The carry-over at tho end of 1054/65 is likely to show forther INTO, though low than in 1003/04 For other poroals the murplu problam is loves Louto Although stocks of anno grain Incroused In 1963/64 and may incrous furthor nart your they do not appour unmanageable, particularly in view of growing pig number. Stocks of rico whilch nocumulated in Fur Eastem axporting coun thes an now moring more freoly at lower pricor. 8toclu of magar uro also very heavy but retrotions on production In Cuba and tho export quo tu under tbo Intonational Sugu Agroement may gradually correct the poation. Outddo the United Btatea, then surplus problem appous for tho timo being to be curing for most other commodities Lacrousing efforts to dispone of the surplures may boxovor preos down into rational prices, partiou larly in view of tho now United States pol oy of willing many products at world market prices, which means that domestio price supports wil no longer at 4 . support to international prices In general, farm prloos of some though not all foodstuffs tonded to fall in 1863/04 PHool of most agricultural raw materiala, Inoluding forest producte, wero much soudler and in some won showed somo recovery after the sharp fala in 1862. In the bevongo group prices of coffee and coco. roro aherply use mult of shorter supplies, with roperou dons on tho price of tea. Tho most stuhing AJ 1 1803/04 oocurred in tho International parion of cereale, though prion fupport mobomo largoly prorontod soy oomper ble doolino on domostlo markota. Lack of stor ego paco ha intongflod the pronaro to roll in several aporting countries, and for the fint timo talos under tho Whout Agroemont fel bolow the mudmun price lovel. Moroovor um rosult of the odor dollar situation in Woutern Europe plot promiams on osports from soft curranoy crown virtualy diappeared. Tho prloon of otrou oxporta from tho United States and a number of orporting countries in hurope, Latin Amosion and tho Noor Eat and now much lower than prions to prodocon lo thon countries, and in domo ir heavily cubeddbood. Bubadlon on arports beyo alimo beon adoptod by various countries for butter shoore mont, lintood oh, duod boans and sugar The trend of gricoltural prices, and oven of food price, hus not, howover boon anivorally dowanard. For examplo e comprobonero intor national parlon Index soch u that of food Imports into OEEC countries showed littlo change from 1002 throughout 1893 and rom wherply in the flot qpertor of 1854, while the United kingdom odes of imported foodstuffs foll by only two percent from the first quarter of 1903 to the first quarter of 18654 Demand and Consumption In gonoral tho demand for agricultunl producto in 10D/BT u soll maintained. The declino in economlo activity in Vorth America dld not roduce retall food sales, and in most othor regionu .cocomplo conditions teodod to simulato demand. 6 ·Farm Prices and Farm Income. Whilo farm prico indices bare fallen apprerlabls in lorth America the bare been constlerably more stable in \lettern Europe and in romo counttries in other region, including tho Far East dill show . rising trend. Farm prices would, of course, hero fallen moro steeply but for the opention of price support poll cler la mer countries and tho maddon increm in the cost of gach policies is caming concern to yotermente, turpayer and producent. lloro and moro gorommonts aro tonding to reduct the upport lorel, to limit their financial liabilities, or to Adopt lv rigid prico support pollda. Tho ratio of prices received by farmers to prices peld for production requlelter has moved to tho dindvantago of farmers in bearr all countries in the past fow year In concoquenco farm incomes hare fallen sharply in lorth America, but thor hure been more stablo in leatern Europo mainl because of tho rapid nimo in tho volume of produotlon. In Oceania farm incomer haro fluctuated widely in the lart for er Data aro lacking for other region Estimaton busod on United Nations date of national Incomo suggest thut in fort countries aro per caput income in agriculturo comparablo with thoro in other oocupation. In most countri per caput farm incomes aro of the order of two-thirds to ono buf (mometimes Iera) of amingo in other secton of the economy Although farm Income aro nourly ororywhero rolatively higher in comparison with other occu pations than in 1938 when the offects of the do predion of the thirties were ati considerablo in many countries much of the gains of the early postwar geen bus nco been lost uro taken this is unlikels to reduce to any citent the existing problem of agricultural murplom This emphasizes the nerd for carefnly planned and eclectivo espaodon of future agricultural produe tton clovels adjustel to marhot conditions Looking forthor ahead tho tear 1053 51 rectas It helr to me i continued eernaion in tho tlemand for agricultural producte. World supplies of grain and most other foolstoffe will continue to bo rela tirelt abundant and to that extent food ftuport ing countries should enjos faronablo terms of trade Prices of coffee should romain ilrm and prices of most agricultural nur materials (Including forest products) seem to be tending apwurds after the post Korean colaper & tendency which onld be strengthened bra rornal of economio activity in tho United States. Blarhet prospects for exporters of the latter commoditice, mainly in the les do reloped rgions, thereforo veem likely to improve These relatirols farorable development. how erer might be frustrated unleta thero i. () an effortiro ro-adjustment of the expanded North American agricultural production to reduced in temational needle, and (it) a gradual working down of accumulated surplumes without potero preware on world prico lorols. Premont policies in North America and sorking towards them enda though both and particularly tho second, will be difficult of achievement REGIONAL PROBLEMS AND POLICIES Western Europe Investment in Agriculture Agrloultural development is still rotarded by lack of investment funde, and while offort hare been made to Incrou the flow of Internatlooul Investment, the hero directly devoted to agricul toro declined in 1983/84 A recent FAO rurray bring out tho Tory vido disparities betreen differ ont countries in the ad quacy of the mupply of farm credit from ben, co-operatives and other frostitution pourcen agricultural prodaction in Western Europo in 1093/14 Tu greator then oror before, the crop of sugar beet and grains being ei coptionally heavy Ieather conditions wito favorable but Improved mothodo lo contributed Abatantially to the higher stelle Ttre progree in production coincided with . reviral in economic actirity in other motori Supplfer voro adequate to meet the riding demand and for bomo products Imports from outaldo Europo Foro reduced The general lorel of intr Euro peen trado in agricultural producto increased, though some countries orperlencod didiculties in disposing of onuccustomed merplast. A abatan tial part of Western Europa 1 butter esports was takon up for the fint timo by tho L8.6.R da agricultural production is expected to con tindo to expand mainly u tho cumulative ollect of the improred methods and more eficient squirment hich baro como into o in rocent Demand Outlook Arortex of current economic trende suggests How improvement in demand for agricultonl prod ucts in 1031/55 thoogh, unlew special mewares 7 ·the population. Any olgnificant expansion of congumption - aloo rogairo condiderable de velopment of marketing and distribution fealities Apart from tho perustanco in many parts of tho Lour East of unutlaatory conditions in the podlal structure of arloulture, lack of investment capital (except to oll esporting countries) tanda to limit tho mopo of government activities in agri cultural and othor conordlo dovelopment this diffloulty hu been noontustod by rather wideaprend dealinos in foreign archange racerpts from food and agricultural exports Rocent agricultural palloy adjustments uro on the wholo Limitod to mourros Intended to longen tho Impact of fluotustiora in esport domend. produotion in importing countries, partioularty Europo, may not prove us large as in 1833/64 there may be only ı modorato increano in Import requirements. Export prices dealinod goonally in 185/6 and by the end of the meagon most kolor both within and outsido the International Mheat Agreement woro being mado at identical Pricta pomes hat below the midpoint of the ITVA ringe 1 Course Grains Africa Bxports of courto grains in 1033/54 were the Amo as to the provious year and auty-over stocks at the end of the year troto larger than at the opening Shipments to Europe whoro larger ulthough European production increased over 1052/03, Erport prioes declinod during the your United Stata rupplies in 1064/65 may bo at least u largo u In 1053/01 dorpite zaroago rootrictions on maize and arportable rapplion of mabo in Ar gentina ll be somoshat larger owing to another increuso in the crop Totalmopplies of couro gratu are amplo to meet likely import requirements add aro tonding to Inorous. In Africa marplaces of agricultural prodaoo are at prement only of local dgnifiance, though the of foota of surplava in other parts of the world bero already been sharply folt in rome territorio For example the fall in otton prices reduced Ugande · favarıblo balance of trade to ono-third of its 1062 lovol whllo during 1803 tho Nigoria Oil Palm Prodao Mlarketing Board bed for the flot timo to draw on its accumulated funds to moot guar antoed price, which, hopovar will be somewhat lower In 193. Bat tho budo problems of African gricultural development remain ut before and aro only noontuatod by the percent world atuation. Somo of the more procariously based coabomies must bo divortiflod, Internal markota must bo do volopod, transport systetos Improved and the dia tary lovels of the rapidly increasing population must bo raisod. Rice Signifiauntly more rice my harvested in 2003/04 than in any provious your Two succeeiro good herroots have greatly altored the fupply position, but most exporters word reluctant to adjust their poloos socordingly Two main importen showed lor willingner to buy and world trdo contracted sbarpts in 1853 Stocla began to zooumalato in momo arru and towards the end of 1863 axport prioes started to dealino ITorld trado in rico will probably rocoror in 1064 from the low lovela of 105 oxing largely to a reo in Jepan. Importa following . poor crop and to a largo Indian por chure from Barme, faollitated by comprehend to financial rottloment betrean these two countre. This recovery honorot mas prove to be a tom porery one unlee price relationships altor to mako Hou moro attractivo to buyor, COMMODITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK Wheat Torld boat erporto declined further to mil- Hon tono in 188/BL, . fall of 16 porcent from 1002/33 owing to improved domestio crop in . pomber of importing countria. Btoclu beld by the major cxporton on 1 July and pooted to amount to 49 million tons (15 millioa tons more than a year earlier) of which over 80 percent is held in North Ameria Acraago tortrictloos in the United States and imaller woning in Canada will reduco production in 1054/55 but ontpat may still bo greater than the current lovel of domestic ra quirements and exports, and come further facteur In stocks may occur in the coming star Although Sagar World production of centrtfugal sogar roso in 1053 by nino percent notritbutanding further so sero restriction on Cubes prodootke Exception alls high steld woro obtained by Europaun beet producing countrier loro significant illu tho Hoo in production in many importing coun- 10 ·Fisheries Products trice and in the British Commonwealth exporting cotintries representing the culmination of pontrar cranston and clerrlopment program Ilthough 1031 proinetton will probably be lower the trend towania higher production will continuo in many deficit countries and in territories which prorluco for protected markets Interntional trade in ragar will be mihatantialls lower than in 1953 in ste of the doratloning of sugar in the United kingdom and the emergence of India as a major importer leverthelena collare of rugar priech has been provental in the negotiation of an Inter national Sugar Agreement which came into oper ation at the end of in and by the control metus ures adopter bi the Chun Goremment AWAN Tho 12 world atch of fish is extimetal to huic approximatel to the 1072 figure small Icelino In the total output of tho major proclacorr Bu counterlianced by increant among merlium and small producing countries There was a con tinuation in 13 of the trond in momo mountries from ulter fish prorluction in favor of fresh and Imaon fillete In countries whomo catchoy of herring manlines and anchorler hero wlown sharp increures In postwar een the increased output is being used mainly for meal oll and can ned provluct. The United States ulmon catch in 1933 was lower than that of the prortow year but In Cana ila the large Botlah Columbien catch wus respon. ble for a constvorably incronsell puch of anned almon There was reluction in tho Lnitel Staten output of tune abich resulted in record imports of tuna for canning, particularly from Japan Lloestock Products Fats, Olls and Oilseeds Irodaction of meat milk and cggs increased substantially during 103 and trade in livestock products wu almo larger The L.3.8 R parchared Abstantial quantities of butter and ment in worki markets Recanso of abundant applies prices declined in many countries of the lorthern Hemisphere and the increases of prices for livestock products from Oceania were ler than in previous year. In the lated States large quantities of dairy prodoce vero acquired by the government under the price aupport program, and stocks voro at record lateks Provided weather conditions aro normal pros pecto polnt to a further espansion of production Because of very favorable pig/grain price ntios pig meat production in lorth America w Increuso In 1951/55 Wilk production, dao to growing wieklo per cor and larger dairy berde, mas also continue to expand, though the major part of the incrourel - be wed for manufactures. In the United States where the price rapport level Tu rodaced, production is still a padding and it estimated that government purchases of dairy produce will alco bo largo in the current support Ytar Heat esports doning llui mas remain at the lovel reached in the past year un no great changes are expected in the crportable supplies of the main esporting coantries. Future derelopments in the butter inde will depend largels on the de mand in the United hingdom after the end of nationing and on the continuation of purchases by the USSR While prices of meat aplmal maar be more stable than in the past year priets of dairs prodace mas tend to be weaker partis due to the presence of the surplus stock in the United Stater There wu a moderato docllno in world prorlac tion of fata and oil in 1953 largely owing to a sharp off reason fall in the Mediterranean out put of olivo oil. Worll crports royo ahout fro percent reflecting substantially increased ship ments from tho Lnited States and Anna Furopean import demand recorered from its low 1032 lovel and the general lovel of international pricey of fats and oils rus somoshat higher The price of linseed oil was an outstanding erception und continued its downaard trend, mainly u a result of heavy aport ales from Argontine und from United State government stoch Production and export supplies are larger in 1 than in 1013 In West Afria production and exports hare materialls Increased and the Uniter! States an Argentino governments bare continuel to rell large quantities for export Jlogt prices on the International markets declinell moderately in the filmt half of 1934 and the outlook is for a continued downward trend in the latter hall of 104 und curl 101 Fresh Fruut Production of the mala fralts, except water and peers, Increased further in 10 and few otber Crop here abom ruch napld and continwas ex panulon. Trude aloo espended fortber unumpean imports, mainls of banana and citru fruita, 11

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·Jute 1oft currencies aro apeoted to increas Vorth Amerlan aporta in 1954/15 and workl trade in 1036 is illels to be larger Cotton World stocks at the end of tho 163164 raron Ato estimated at nearly eight monthe consumption at current rates Largo stock1 Acoumolated during the rear in the l nited States whoro in spite of Acteago reductions (xceptional rekla realted in • crop pron porernt greater than in 1012/03 Except in the loited States, stocku were bs no maani exccmire. Crope had been gonerally rodnood in other mafor ceporting countries, whilo the incroured production of India, the U.S.SR and China nu espected to be absorbed locallı United States price hero boon supportod rinco the beglaning of 1053 and romained fairly stable 111th tho United Blato de talon to limit cot ton production In 1851/65 hororor tho ontire structure of cotton prices has tondod to moro upwards On averago Velde, a total United States crop of 11.5 million balen (90 percent loa than in 1053/6-1) would be expected from the reduced area. World consumption is likely to be main tained in 1951/05 and oven allowing for poudblo incroumon in production In other exporting countren, bomo reduction in world stocla fe in proe poct. Torld trade hus rocontly expanded under tbo influence of rhwng price, bat mas lovel of us stocka in importing countries bocomo roplonlabed. Including the Paklatan Jute Board o rtook which word liquidated in tho course of tho pauron, tho total mupply of juto In 183/84 ww nino million belee. This apponn to baro been adoquato for onrrent requirements, us International prices have not adranced to a great artont, though thero hus been a rubatantial rocovory in pricos to producen Activity in tho jato manufacturing fadustry has boon utdactory In Calcutta, en Increano În berdan output compensated for declino in the production of maching and there has boca. recovery in European mfl operations In the Unito Stato the of hessian consumption hu been maintained, and thoro hus been an Incrousa um of juto goods in tho United Kingdom. Prospects for tho 1054/60 SOLD er vory uhcortain Although the price of raw juto favor an Introcrod cultiration, It le reported that tho Puli stan Government has aguin dooldod on « vory restricted acrtage The condition of tho crop 18 good, though the harvest is expected to bo lator than usual As soola havo boon substantly reduced ı further advanco in nn juto price may bo expected if joto mill activity and the demand for jute goods aro maintainod, Hard Flbers Tool World cancumption in 1053 wu only three percent below tho record 123 level, duo to a to COTCT) in the Europoen indust and further as pansion in Japan. Thero kuno corresponding rocorery in the lnited Stato Towards the end of the rear congumption genenils lovelled off and activity declined woman bat in the lust for montlu ITool production la 1033 54 -u main tained at the record lovel of tho propiou reason but total supplier bare been smaller u thero wus no moro than the normal CTT-over in exporting countries Tho reduced mto of mill operations hu consequently not resulted in any significant venkners in the market. Serino pricas baro onlr dropped slightly and combred prices buto remained firm porills under the Infldence of the slox rate of shipment from South Americu. Production doclined in 10$ fr the first time pince the war although only by seven porcent Tho declino w practically confined to Latin Amoric Tho offtake, including Aratoglo stock pdlo purchases, wu pot far out of Vino with output, so that prices were frmor than in tho proceding your There are, honortT till conndorablo un mold rocks of honoquon in Blario and of stel in French Afria, but government stock of seal in Brazil haro boon virtually oloarod Although consumption was hoavs North Amer len groatls reduced its purchase of hard fibori European and Japanese purchason, on the other hand rooorered. Commercial demand is expocted to improve u tbough purchases for the stockpilo are likely to Le redaced At the emo time the production of aſ hard ibors is aspectod to decline further Rubber Prodaction in all major producing countries egaln declinod In 10, Dainly on small holding. It the amo time consumption recotered thoro 13 ·incrouod about 20 porost. Further progress has been chlovod in liberalising imports and trudo is aspected to contlauo ito upward trond in 1053/54 of the total quantity ontering international trade, after the doratfoning of both tou and mugar Chrnumption roosloo In Continental Europe and in the United State The tou industry will bo able to adapt twell to the lacroured world domund and production will probably riso la 1851 Dried Vine Fruit and Wine Cocoa World production of nigine and currents in 10.13 remained at about the 1952 lovol menub tantia reduction in the United States pack mas offset by a larger output 10 Australia, Turkey and Inn. World trado expanded olightly though tho United States and Turkog erportod less Unit ed States rubeldies have been extended to ciporta and since the oponing of tho 1093/64 metron, Tur Loy has also pand export subsidies The United Kingdom discontinued bulk purchasing of dried vino frult in December 1803 Contrary to the Increase in fresh fruit consumption the consumption of drlod fralt is lower than befar the war Surplunos of common wine have occurred in rooent eers in some of the major produciog coun tries and tho French and Spanish surplures in crourod during 1053 34 Italy hu no longer any mrple and consumption hus regalnod its prower lovel Cocoa prica in 1954 roached the highest pouk in more than half a couture In Buy wholastlo pr100n mero about an porcent highor then at the beginning of tho crop year Prices began to ad nunco when It bocamo ovident that world prodootlan would be lower than in the proplow your dae almost entirely to a sharp decline in the Gold Count and Yigerian ontput The moont dgnifiant dorolopment nu . strong riko in European consumption. Demand in Europe specially Western Gormany and the Lnited Kingdom, roached unprecedented lovela. Due to tho normal time lag, the fall offcots of the higher prices of cocoa beans baro not rot boon felt an the rotall market In the Loltod States the prico increuret pororoly affectod demand, and the post- Far downward trend of per capat consumption continued potwithstanding the high national in The purch for rubutitatea and want to ooon obzo the un cocoa hu been interface The outcomo of tho 1054 crop will giro momo todl ation whether the 1003 production la Afra mu a pormal cellal movomont or the beginning of . long term trond of dollaing produotfon. COMO Tobacco Coffee Although olightly highor than in the provious your world coffee production in 103 wu still below the provar svornge Rudng demand, mainly from Earopo and the United States, combined with depleted xocks and prosporta for rodacod Brazi lien aupplies in 1951 (u xoll u mono short term factors) stimulated « great riso in pricam ID Day 1031 prions more 50 porcent higher than a Ver carlier Lodications are that prodoction likely to riro in 1854 in Africa and in most Latin Amortaan coantra other than Braul. Whether them in cruus - Ill componate for the front damage in Bruul romains problematlal l dless opneumor registance to high prices becomes moro effectivo Do subutantil rekening of puncte can be anti cipared for the current rear In 1853 world produotion of tobacco sights exceeded that of 100ttho roduced output in the United Staten baing more than matched by . romarkablo Incroer In production of the Oriontal type of cigaretto tobacco World trado Inorou ad over the lor lorel of 1012 By the end of the jer the incrorro in the Laitod Staten stooka wu mollent borno inctoeso in stocks of Oriental to buoco mar bo asported in 1831 though Oriental tobacco xem to be gradoally regulning en toportant place in European consumption. Stoclo of loaf tobacco in most importing oountries are still substantially belon the desirable lerol. On the whole to acto prove Incround wghith in 10 11 Consumption to increasing in Deurly all countries, and demand is strong The Looptured balance of permente dtution in Europe and Unit ed States ules of tobacco against payment in Tea With world output staWe at around 200 000 met rſc ton and coenals improving demand to price recovered sabtuntualls during 1003 and the first half of 19 from the 10te depression. Expectedr important was the rise in lnited hing dom consumption, which accounts for about half 12 ·Jute soft ctirrencies Aro cxpected to increase lorth American exporto in IDJI/ And world trade in 1054 1. lilch to Lo Inrger Cotton recovor World stocka at the end of the 100/84 kuson aro estimated at nearly eight montha concumption at current rates Large stocks accumulated during the year in the United States, where in spite of acreage reductions, cicoptional vields resulted in • crop poren percent greater than in 1852/0-3 Except in the United States, stocki wore by no meam excewire Crops had been goneralls reduceri in other major exporting countries, whillo the Increased production of India the U.B.8.R. and China mu aspected to be abeorbed localls lnited Statet prices hare been supported sinco the beginning of 1053 and remained fairls stabte With the United States decision to limit cot ton production in 1851/6 honorer tho entiro #tructure of cotton prices has tended to move upwards On averago Fields, a total United States crop of 113 million balas (30 percent lew than in 1053/01) would be expected from the reduced are, World consumption iu likely to bo main tained in 1854/85 and oven allowing for powiblo Increuken in production in other ciporting coun trien, como reduction in world stocla lo in pros pect. World tndo hus recontly expanded under the influence of Hong prices, but may lovel of us stocka in importing countrion bocomo roplenished. Including the Paklotan Jute Bourds stocks which nore liquidatod in the courts of tho koupon the total oupply of fute in 10.53/14 was nido million bekr. This appear to havo beon adequato for oniront roqulromonts us intomational prices hero not advanced to a great extent, though thoro har been a substantial recovery in pricos to producer Activitr la the jute manufacturing industry has been antifactory In Calcutta, an increaso in beralen output compensated for a deollno in tho produotion of maching, and thoro has been a in European mill oporatlone. In tho Laited States the nato of honden consumption hus beon maintained, and thero has been an increason! uro of jute goods in the United Kingdom. Prospects for tho 1004/06 Howon aro very un certain. Although the price of raw foto favors an inoraused cultivation, it is roported that tho Pald stan Gorornment has aguin dedded on very restricted acroage The condition of the orop la good, though the barvest lo apocted to be later than uml. A, docks have beon rubatantially redaced, further adranco in ruw juto prices may be expected of juto mill activity and the demand for juto goods and maintained. Hard Fibers TVool llorld consumption in 1033 vu only threo porcent below the rocord 1050 lotel due to a ro COTCT in the European industn and further a pansion in Japan. There was no corresponding recorers in the United States. Towards the end of tho voar consumption goneralls levelled off and activity declined pomoshut in the last for month., 1ool production in 1953/54 nu main tained at the record lerel of the prorlom sun Let total supplks hare been smaller u there mu no more than the normal cutt-ottt in cmporting contra The reduced rate of mill operations ha consequentir not reelted in any signifiant weakness in the market Verino prices have only dropped Uphtls and coabred prices have remained arm, posible ander the lafidence of the alon rate of shipment from South America Production declined 1913 Ir tho first time since the war although only by roven percent Tho decline was practically confined to Latin America. The offtako including strategio rtook polo porohara, WU not far out of Uno with output, o that price roro firmor than in the procoding year Thero uro, hon otor still considerable unbold stocks of bonoqoon in Blorico and of rul in Fronch Africa, but yovernment tools of soal in Brazll have been virtuelly cleared Although consumption ou heavy lorth Amer on greatly reducod Its purchases of herd Abors Enropean and Japanoy purchases, on the other hand recovered. Commercial domand i upootod to Improvo al though parehwer for tho stockpilo aro likely to bo redocod. At the same time the prodaction of all hard fiben is expected to decline further Rubber Production in all major producing countries igrin declined In 1803 malals on amal boklings At tho gimo time, consumption recovered thore- 13 ·by roducing oonddonably the gap between car ront production and consumption Most of the arcou production over commoral roquirements appears again to have been taken up by govern meut rtookple, which in the United States have pow preotically reachod tho niko ongioally shod ulod. In 1054 tho coca of production to exposted almost to dlaappour natonl rubbor output doolin ing furthor whillo conmmption axpande, capturing a larger abero of the total natural synthetto rabber merket began to prodao tractor. Dovelopmonts to im provo arvioing facilities and to make mechiray avullablo to larger groups of fumen havo boan wow and limitod to . for countries, Forta me chinery pools, honorar hero recently boon ootab Lahod or anlergod la Brual, Chilo, Peru and Gum tamala Forest Products Farm Machinery The Inorta in tho number of tractors ured in Far Eustom and Near Eastern countries has boca mainly limitod to a fow countries, and most of them are tending to consolidato recent aspangon by incrounod attontion to worrlaing and training of operator Moro attontion lo leo balng gtren to tho introduction of improved band tools and animal draw oquipement Tho auto of farm michinery continues to expand rapidly in Latin Amer ich und in 1853 Argentina und Brudl thomyolyos In 1953 tho produotion of rouodwood was groeter than in 1852, and now tooorde wero establabod for the production of Hawn wood aod mood manufactured forest products. The volume of trado mi aloo higher than in 1802 though it continued to dealino in lue Roundwood was un ascoption and thore was a sharp fal of over 40 paroont in world trado mainly bocado of onell er importa of pitprops and pulpwood by the Unitod States and lotern European countries follow Ing houry stockpiling in 1851 and 10052. The fa turo cooramption of am wood is throatened by tho intorudng mo of rubetitates encouraged by recent high prioes. The consumption of most other forest producte is expanding napadly 14 ·Chapter 11 WORLD REVIEW AND OUTLOOK ·w much as three porcent Berely to keep pece with the resulting increvo in food requirements is challengo to Agriculturo to do mund at tho samo timo to improvo nutritional standards # still greater challenge Althongh there are no technical roubou why the challenge cannot bo met there are formidablo problem of sconom lo organization and investment to be overcome. The growth of population meany, hovorot that in . for juan the present Jorel of agricultural prodaction will be quite imeficient for the worlds Deods and the npid growth of requirements should in ſtoelf eure the problem of prodaction adjustment Bector of tho accelerating growth of world requirements there can be in the long run, no slowing down of ygricultural dovelopment in the world a whole. On the contary it seems important not to love the rocont increased momen tum of expansion But it is oqually important that further expansion Rhould be balanced and reloctive both between commoditia and be tiden countries in order to facilitate the dupoul of existing surplaves and to provent thelr recur rence whon the world output (excluding tho V.8.8.R. China and Eastern Europo) rose by over firo percent largely because of faranable pentbor In the yean oince the period 1948/49 1050/61 agricultunl production ho increased by dearly throe percent annually compared mth an annual facron la popaletion of about one and half porcent. Por apat production slightly exceod od ita promer lovel in 1852/83 and maintained that position in 1953/54 Production in 1053/04 increased sharply in Western Europe and in the Meer East lo compar Loon with the your before The Far East and Dounla showed maller geint bat ebowhare thoro was little change from tho 1952/03 lovol (Tablo I) Westom Europe and the hour Eart hard klo shown the greatest erpapatos to the last four yaent with an arenago anual incrouro of the order of four to five percent compared with about two parcont in other roglane. Dovelopmenta in 1963/64 reduced to only a limited extent the disparitken in production which omorgod doring and oinoo the war On . per apat buls both total agricultural prodation and food prodaction remain approclably low than beforo the war in tho Far East Ocolnia and Latin America, bat thoy uro mamomhut greator la Afrien Tater Europe and tho Roar Eut and substantially greater in North Amoria (Tablo 2) Tor mu thoro any appreciable change in the all grouter disparitios between regionu in the abooluto level of por aput production which THE SUPPLY SITUATION Agricultaral Production The marked apward trend of agricultural production continued m 1953/04 though thero mu 210 repetition of the remarkable spurt in 100203 Tule 1 IXDI \Quen or OLDX or TOTAL AURICULTURAL PRODUCTIOY AXD AVERAGE ANNUAL LOREASE DY CONTARION KITX TU. GROWTH OF PorokATTOY Атеп ашпо укт otwar bun period 11334 to I HO 1910 11 Svet Postar becer Iust 19 1031 11 1133 (pepper) Produties Population Prona! 41 08 103 135 133 14 3* m - 1.1 114 114 185 148 LIO 10 108 11 101 100 125 JU J20 Wartom Europe \orth America Latin Americ Orcadia Far Eant (excl. China) Ta Fust Almen 14 112 151 147 IN 123 103 13 137 18 14 ?? 8 13 110 114 14 12 18 16 All abno regim. Ilock 114 103 118 113 125 117 119 3.5 Tu crop TH include thi and other table to the report comer Torten Duphort crop band in tbe frut the rar ned ad mortben Lamun trop barat d torud te of that yeu und the bestupe de markedok Year The avenute of the terre et 1913 ist 193 51 be been taka uport Lyuin mort puts of the work the Art pe of protiv umrit ud otro the bed bees bagpleted by 1911 Lycument for the LHHH Ee-teh Exrope and Tot anule YOTE Tbe bebou isk til Dd tro that follow in the cathetben el TL 814/ IN IN ht no lop n the botter of world and Modertha pere rattad to JPN odvr rridor the indketor 1951 and orile men, 18 ·TABLE - IXDEX \Uxbras or TOTAL AYD In Carut Foon PRODITIOY Tot i Feroclia fr (opet Fond I'mdrotton Hi Mo . 1953/14 preint 11/11 110/11 ігіп 1133/31 (j remi D/31 TM 1081/1 1132/35 DJI Mare 10. 107 103 138 04 118 Totem Europe \orth America Latin Arctic Arcke Tear East Far East (ezcl. China) Oceann 123 182 130 1344 123 105 117 121 100 138 134 1 40 109 120 101 123 07 100 101 85 03 101 85 81 114 99 11) 5283868 88 All abore regionu World 115 109 120 117 128 110 08 97 102 101 100 102 1 Includos robot ertinate for USAN. Ledden Lorope and Chloe primarils determine their food consumption botol. Food production per head of the population remains #omo four to iro timo greater in Oceania and North America than in the Far East the Meer Fast and Africa while Europe and Latin Americ fall into an interpediato position.' Food production expanded fuster than popu lation over the last four year in all the lew well fed regions of the world except in Latin America Tho gain In per capot production ru most marted in tho Nour Eust slow but fairly ateady in the Far East and Africa while in Latin Ameria there wu. or downward drift Hoat major commoditles shared in the luctus in production from 10.12/83 to 1063/6L. Morld cercal Produotion Increased by two percent the most mthfactory feature boing an increase of elght percent in rice production (ought percent also in the Fur Fuat in opite of a poor crop in Japan) which onded the most acute phase of the post war Ace shortage. Wheat production declined slightly mainly because of aller though still large cop in North America Lirentock products notably milk contributed largely to the increase in agricultoni prodaetion and the output of roger aloo Inetewed sharply In spite of further reutilctlog in Cobo mainly because of record Eorpeun crop of mugar beet On the ot ber hand thert wu a dramatie full in Jute production to about half the 1914 33 korel oving to acreage restriction in Pakistan, and maller reduction in the world production of otber hard Ribera natural rubber and cocon Retrictions on production are likely to becomo Increusingly important in 1031/05 particularly in the United States, and to limit the output of wheat rugar cotton and tobacco The world atch of fish cruntaccent and mol lusa la 1033 nu estimated at approximately the 1952 level of 280 million metric tons. Tho total match of fire major producer for which statistics are availablo (Canada Japan, horny United Kingdom, and United States) bus ahora little change during the yern 1851 1803 at 10 to 11 milion metric tons or about 40 porcent of the world a total no figures are avail able for tro other major fih producer tho 08.8.R. and Chine, but it is estimated that each of thom accounts for about 20 million trio tops per year The principal countries in tho medium producing group hero continued their upward post war trend of production to 1053 Production nu al maintained or increased in most of the omaller producing countren In regard to forest products world production of round rood tu maintained in 1953 whilo tlo production of finished products Increured largely by drawing on culating stocks of nx material Ter records rote reached in 10.53 in the world production of um wool (263 million CU...) Food palp (30 milion tons) Dentint (10 million tone) other paper and board (30 mil Lon toos) plywood (7-8 million cum) und Aber building boards (2.7 Tallion totu) Tho recond FAO world forestry Inventory mus completed in 1053 und is descubre more fully in Chapter 1 Groning stocks of timber in the rould foreste nor IQ o ir atlmated at 00 thound milion cu.m. (of bich about a pet sec State of Food and Agriculture 1855 Part I Ergure III 1a

·RGURE I – Estimated World Production of Major Agricultural Products
(hantogarth mult)
smerk
441
Muh
100
Mit
On
Harley
Meet (lye Astrou md ON)
Crns front
100
Vepra to
Eu (1 R AETKA I OTH
Tetto
1 00
Cices
T.
19242
172
1910
oven)
11/014
19132
rd 151
1114454

·cent art conlferous and 40 percent broed leared species) growing me total forest area of 1127 million hectarea This is less than one-third of the total world aren under forest of 3 100 million hectaren though 600 million hectares of unexploit ed forcat are alread acrylble The inventory shows that the world forests are potentially capable of fumishing a plentiful flor of forest products for world population much higher than today It also bring out once more the contrut between the fallr exploited coniferous forests wherd growth and drain roughly balance and tho ander-exploited broudleared forests It may lo mtel in passing that for a good many commoditter workil pet caput prolaction in 1031-33 us appreciably louct than in earlier periodo pertis herzite of droughts in 1034 and 1030 in Torth America but probably maink bechoro of the effect of the deprcalon on demand This customary prerar los period for Forkl Agricul tur was on the hole a time of somewhat rub normal production and consumption. Prospects for 1954/58 It is too early to form any real judgment of the trend of production in 103-1/85 Acrtege restric tions and generally lens favorable weather are like Is to lead to some reduction in the production of grain and sugar at least in North Amena and Europe Restrictions on cotton production m the United States ero unlikels to be offset by any Increamer which may occur oluen here lo marked recovery in the production of jute and hard fiber from the low level of 1053 sems likels and natural rubber prodaction may continue to decline slowly On the other hand continuing expansion of lirostock production seems probable giren normal weather in the maln producing areas and increus. ed applies of olbeeda coffee tea and tobacco pro alto expected in 10 World agriculturel production mı whole seems likely to be fairly well maintained in 1834/03 in opite of Increuing reetric tion schemes in oxporting countries, and thero mar well be a continuation of the recent upward trend Long Term Production Trends Year to year changes in agricultural production aro of course Largely affected by the weather and are generally lem significant than longer term developroiente, which u. rulo correspond more clowly to changes in world demand There an bo little doubt for example that tho long term nec in world per capat production of eggs sogar citrus fruit rubber and wood pulp (Figuro I and Tablo 3) reflerta a growing demand for there commodities though rubber lo increasingly affect ed by the synthetic product Slutlarly the declin ing per apat production of rye potatoes, dried fruit and mino probably reflects a falling off In world demand. Per aput milk production, though still below prowar hus Hren slowly but further development may be affected by the shift from butter to margarine In other curen, howover 0.8 rice coffee cocon and wool the low port war indices of per apat production are more likely to be the result of the show oxpansion of production rather than of any fall in demand, u la indiated by the current high prices of thero products Again the unchanging long term trend for cereal u whole le the result of a complos of opposing tendencies OB the slow recovery of production in the For Fut expecially of rice and higher production, toainly of wheat and malze in North America falling human consumption of cereals in the mort indontralized countries and como Inettare in countries bete standards of Bring ure only Dow beginning to rico lower requirements of coarne grains for horret (particularly onts) and to somno extent for cattle because of improrements in the production and utilization of pastore offset bow erer by larger requlrepente for pig and poultry The prodaction figures hometer sogget no mart ed change in the overall demand for cereals for la general the periode of higher productfoo were abo yeart of low prices and surpluri. International Trade in Agricultural Products The most notable feature of the international unde in agricultunl products during 1953 ms tho continuing dechne in grain shipments from the peak reached in 1951 dao mainlr to good harrests and lower import requirements in both Europe and the Far East This decline continued during the first half of 1034 Total wheat import requirements of Teatern Faropean countries for Crumple were reduced by one and a ball million toos br the bear 1913 barvest. Simultaneoualy there *an sharp recorers in Argentine gruin es ports from the lor lovel of 100% rome increase in eports from the lear East and Oceania, and with In Wertern Europe i marked Inc. lo exports from France and Sweden The main impact of these change ru concentrated on Sorth American exportu which in consequenet nett como o percent lorer in 19334 than in 16233 compared with 21 ·TABL. 5 INDA No123 or TORLD Pa Carut PopUOTTOX OT BELECTED COYXODITID (ETALUDIYO U.B 8R AND CHOXA) CONYODITT 1011 1 Ter IMED innto 1048:16 1110/31 Aroto 1031/ 110/81 (ptt halvery) 1036 -14. All cerouls Tbout 110 103 101 109 100 101 97 07 101 110 91 101 107 Rioo 109 87 110 105 110 108 113 111 116 100 103 114 101 118 69 65 TO LLL Barley Oats Ryo Potatoes Sugar Olloedo (o) equis) Citrus frult Drlod fruits Wino 01 104 08 08 101 100 87 101 107 79 111 107 80 116 110 73 110 81 70 130 80 85 101 09 59 8888 PES 231 2837 8885 88 89 Coffee Too. Cocon Tobuoco 40 100 78 111 100 100 SU 100 78 100 01 103 100 BI 103 BL 100 BU 104 110 98 103 20 Cotton Wool Juto Rubbor 101 DO 100 151 105 87 78 141 117 88 91 80 117 00 91 120 Boat BLIK Egn! 8uw wood Wood pulp 101 112 101 123 100 14 Talsu, aru, end date. North Abanon, Oonia and Western Europe uly 11 - 1 NtarulabL Buna Pabloation Internetou Institute of Agricultors und of TAO . fall la world grain shipments we whole of only oight percent Exporta of cerce from the U.S.S.R to countries outside tho rouble Iron Word Ako much lower and thoro wu some full in Far East or rice oxporte. In general wheat shipmenta foll moro sharply than those of other graine and Bomo countries of the Notherlands and Den mark, inorcared their imports of course grains mince prices wero favorable for restock producers. atnut to the declino in grain, world trudo in rogar increurd sharply in 1003 compared with the previous year and shipments of vegetablo oil and oilseede fruit tobacco and coffee mere aloo larger A retult the total volum of world tnde in agricultural products showed perso tlally no change from 1931 though thero wero fairly marted change in the share of different reglora and the rolatiro importance of different commodities (Table 1) Tho Inoroured trade in ragar wu duo mainly to greator Europoun imports and wu Largoly soroanter for by a specat United Kingdom pur cher of Cuban magar for stockpiling in antidpu. ton of de ratloning Shipments of ragar again boyan to dorlino tomard tho orl of 1163 and are likely to fall furthor fa 1004 in vlow of the very houvy 1063/64 production in European importing countries. For tobeooo too the incrouod trado In 1903 wu to some ertont fortaltotu, partly rosulting from dolayed shipments from the Unitod stata to tho United Kingdom though there We merked Income in osports of Grcok and Turhah tobacco Increuod inth-Earopean trado scrounted for most of the orpansion in the como of fruit thu osports of fruit from Italy Increud by 14 percent whilo shipudents of Spankh orangos to Germany doubled. For vegetablo olds uod cof feo however tho expandon wu moro gonoral 92 ·Table 1 INDEX NUMERS OT TIK VOLT. or TRADE TX AORTOULTURAL I'RODUCT: JY COYXODITY Roun AND BY REDOXA, AND TID BILANE OR FAOI IN TOTAL HOLD TRADD X AONICULTURAL PRODUCT Tride 1 dices et lame ITTY 1111 11 10.32 (prella dent) 10 15-30 avert 1031 1.53 (pteHolder) Print 100 100 100 100 100 All agricultural proclucto Cereals Buger Oilseeds and vegetable olke Fruits Livestock producte Other foolhatnas 6 7 11 7 7 20 o D 4 17 1 111 114 73 101 03 110 100 110 14 114 DO 110 10 gãā 8 5888.8 & 16 3 107 All foodatudis 08 57 07 00 93 13 Bovenge and tobacco Satural fiber and rubber Forest products 13 30 12 31 103 07 100 101 107 111 101 116 Ewrope 80 Grou e qorts Crow imports hot Importe 17 B 3 4 156 14 B 32 1 300 88 187 2 41 8 81 844 5 &8* Morth America Cro porta Groes Imports et trudo 118 13 B 10.3 106 20 176 143 17 6 101 120 100 13 + Latin America 150 164 Groen arports Grow Imports Net sporta 18 7 16 16 2 101 18 80 100 08 180 85 11.3 139 Oceania Grous oxporta Grom imports Not aporta 98 06 O2 124 0 Il 8 11 09 117 1 118 110 124 167 177 Par Eas 103 Crow orports Grom importe Yot opportu 10 0 13.1 207 16 0 4 14,5 88 71 100 30 10 01 4 ar East 40 11 105 1.5 ? 3 16 88 Om osports 07 Imports Tot opports Africa Grons esport . Gro importa Tet opports OP 16 19 97 117 27 60 110 137 111 130 172 116 170 113 Xe nhà The inte tale tot stand the between computed DOD-thoaiat contre, but petite button the cota molt corresten for at lata u L These hered on the tatialet Competitierpted corditet Toy por la lain. The floor later und the cat be tatbe pertritt what I would indo take into account tortut product 23 ·Tanu 6. COMPARATITI RATI OF Dr Elorto ar AquotUWALET AND A CULTOOLTUUL PRODUCTION 1 Rrox 1111-30 eren 1151/51 1113151 Jone North America Domanin 130 118 LLC 105 Africa Nour East Europo Latin Ameries Far East 68 LURER 84 61 70 72 72 06 86 00 Au moglo 8$ Index of from moritul Iports divided by Andar reultan prodotto TAD & Rate or GROWTH OF AGRICULTURAL IX PORTS COMPARED WITH AMJOULULAL PRODUOTION 1 Tror 1051/31 1111 ArenA 76 25 01 and reflectod both larger supplies in esporting countries and an increased import domand. It is apparent from Tablo 4 that world tndo in agricultural products which npidly regained it* prower volume in the lato forties and alightly Icooded it in 1951 under the infiuence of tho Korean boom, bus dnoo remained at almost exactthe 1934-38 loval Tho statio condition of world agricultonl trado io in sharp contrust to tho toudy expansion of agricultural production and indicate that « gradually diminishing pro portion of the world. output is ontoring interna tional trudo The declino 1o farris general for most mo for prodnotu bat lo aspoolally marted for oiloode fruit, cotton, and latterly for sugar and oornal. On the one hand this fa refloots tho trend in many countries tomard greater rolf-sufficienoy partly for balance of payments and partly for otra toglo rozona. On the other hand it reflects the increasing difficulty of some osporting countries, opodally in the lew dorolopod roglons in mein taining their former volumo of osports in the fact of the rapidly growing food requirements of thoir own population. A number of countries in tho loos dovolopod parts of the world aro indood incrout ingly dopendent an food Imports and but for this dovelopment the current level of world trade would bo approdle bly lofor then bofore the war As noted in lost your's State of Food and Agri culture, tho doalining food exporta and incoming imports of the lem dovolopod roglong wu the factor mainly roaponadblo for the greatly Increased thero of North Amodean osporta in world trado a trend, howover now boginning to bo toverred Thu, In 1834-38 about twolvo percent by volume of the world.grou osports of griculture products ome from North Americ. In 1951 North Amer lom. share rochod. pouk of 24 porcent but by 1003 had doclined to about 20 percent. In North America agricultural orporta hero inornuud much more rapidly then agricultural produotion. Thom.no la true to a low extent of Oceanle, wheto hovovor 1 spoolul offort was made in the immo diuto poster youn to maximiso esporte by nation ing domotio corrumption and where exports during the porlod more abo augmented from stools of mool acumulatod during the Fur But in all other regions of the world, and for the world * mbok the export tndo bu logged behind Agnoultural produetion (Tubio ). For importa tho regional situation to altogether different. In the main importing regione Europe North Ameria and the Par East imports baro ospanded leu rapidly than igncultural production 70 04 101 01 Europo North Amorias Fur East Docente Arton Latin Amorton Noor Post 100 118 111 116 160 130 164 184 126 128 140 104 All rogloos 18 80 1 Inder more grouhtrul Imports ond by tuer prioritar produto and there regloos hero tended to become moro self-suficient. In other reglons the correo L tho come pertloularly in Latin America and tho Near Fut (Table 8) I vow howeror of tho current efforts towards greater malleuticanoy being Tedo by a number of countries in the regionu this trand may noon bo rovernod Some of tbo mafor dovolopment in tho partner trade in food staffs are illustratod in Figure II World trado in fordat prodaota ropumed ito ttedy erpandon after the fluctuations of 1950-52, bat altbough to rolume of trade in 1033 wu higher than in 1852 It continpod to dosline in ralpe. The volume of trade in mm wood Increa od by some 16 porcent compared with the po vlow your mainly boatho of larger European Importa, and exporta of most other finlahed prod acts al continued to expand though whipmenta of mood pup and polp produot u . whalo did ·FIGURE 11 Postwar Developments in the Volume of World Trade in Foodstuffs and Beverages CURIALI Gret 100 Other Other America to t Lex Le Tur Kart 40 40 40 North America 20 20 Ocum o 11340 11 n 51 52 51 191 11450 11 12 S) IUGAR 120 On 120 Others Nour tauta Arra ton 100 100 h lut hs tant & 10 40 Ara 20 Montb Anarlaa o 1914-11 11450 31 ) 1914-1 IRAN 31 32 33 OILSIT AND VOITAIL OIL 100 to Om 45 Men Anna Oube hr En North Amma 40 Atria 40 2. LXn Anna fur Lux . 1114 140 51 52 1911 144 1451 52 JJ 25 ·FIGURE 11 Postwar Developments in the Volume of World Trade In Foodstuffs and Beverages UMESTOCK PRODUCTS Gros nunti Ant late 100 100 Other Othen 9 North an ria so مع ملا North Arena LHI Amerika 10 10 8 furum 20 20 o 0 19HJE 110 31 32 33 193+1 144 H 31 J2 5J FRUIT Ocher Ocheri 100 100 North America to 10 40 Aria Nour El 40 Month dama 20 Loo Arena . 1934-N 1 M H H J1 52 53 1934 140 47 50 51 52 ) TLA, COPEJI AND COCOA Atria Other 100 100 8 8 North Amra Lxu harria 10 + En 20 hr LR 8 1014-10 1941 49 11 52 ] 1954# 1949 30 31 32 33 20 ·TAJL 7 ETXATED TOJ or twox AGRICULTURAL COXOMODITIE ROTI t It? t bearbeited that the quantither in belo Irh normal curry or stocbe to the controler coocenud kad bonit not bot kent indkette thee of the reple OTOOII Emorts 1733 Month 131 goct of 1930 production CODRODITY 1151 1031 1993 1051 rake with here Percent Juls 16 3 10 8 03 70 74 58 71 14 102 Theat1 Unitol Stata Canada Argentins australs Coare traine United Statet Canada 170 + 42 н 10 :9 0 8 1 DO 18 25 0 27 18 1 34 32 34 August To retric cu Dec. 85 15 Rire (milled) Cambodia Vict ang Burma Thailand Sugar 100 -15 071 1 30 700 100 17 380 Cuba 1 900 725 8 800 - 200 10 .90 1 730 2 100 510 1800 1 610 1 800 BB0 1890 1 800 u petat ooorte 16 tlon 1 900 Joly 414 130 105 211 310 80 Dec. N16 188 179 6.51 400 10 20 Oct Jan. 128 46 18 00 25 17 1 7 07 281 98 13 101 15 108 18 M4 100 16 81 7 298 4 Other e porten' United Kingdom Other importera Lrmed Oil United Btate Argentina Soft OILU United States Buster United Btates Canal Other major producer Cheek United States Canada Otber major producent Dried Shin ALL United States Canada Nothorland Tobarco Upitod 8tatas Canada Rubber Producing countna and adost Comtuning counter Cotton Esporton United Stato Others Importon Jan. 141 43 75 8 1.115 5 11 11 14 15 13 30 July 1633 1 047 83 1 742 88 1 745 200 187 148 Jan. 503 1 000 26 281 350 21 λας on 491 501 1 141 COS 001 I 11 1 215 1 1 106 2 125 1 776 1780 11 700 Grport 1913/04 July-Jor UMA 1 Oct 1 mit 1 July tor berkey . 1131 coch 4% af 1935 production (11.1 putetica for weet and carmu) 31 Decembe Forrest Balcium, Brud, DTU I Phorter, Denmark, 31 Agr 31 luat. F bron 1156 CU Oct Japta, Kotberbanda Sreten. A 31 A rpt Japan and LGA Jude Ibo Iked in the of all. Aderable properties toe tried to mh deponde la Nay 11 the main for feed porpore Dar to na tebecca wet. Steidt formontin konto its porte 1931 ratu peront of 113 production Ket nubuk None or mobile 27 ·not rogain the boom lore) of 1951 On the other hand thoro wu sharp fal of orer 25 percent in world trade in round rood mainly because of dne. to outs in imports of pitprope and pulp wood by tho United States and Western European countries following beavy stockpiling in 1951 eod 1052 The Problem of Surplures Tho for ture of tho food and gricultural dtuation which hu and most concern in 1953/64 bus been tho continuing accumulation of orcet stocka of komo commodities, particularly in North America. Statisia ofotoclo ero maro fngmentery than those for production and trado but the estimate in Table 7 giro somo indkation of the magnitudo of tho main holding in robation to current produs tion and of thotr goographioul location. Tho rorpion of cercal and particularly of wheat 1 much tho mort marlous bour of It sheer dzo, Ito offect on markets and on production plans all ovor the world and because thero ero u yot no roul algne of its being Hqaidated, though acroago rotrictions in the United States may limit further stock scoumulations. The cour of tho Poblem is in North America (tta dovelopment thoro is illustrated in Figuro m) though Inovitably tho surploma in that region bus lod to merkot ing dimoultien Cleo where 0-8 in Awtralia Argen tins and Turkey Although the main inflation of North American stock camo with the bumper crop of 1802/03 - 13 million tons or over 30 percent more than tho arorgo of the throprocoding yours - wheat pro dootion in North Amedan huorceeded utilization in overy kuson but ono since 1918/19 und thero have been substantial additions to the curry-OTOT Tho 1963/64 wrop though amalar than in 1962/03 was still wino woven million ton abovo the 1940- 1051 . rarago. Moreover it mot a roduced export demand and increased competition from other esporter to that the addition to rock during the your will be about us largo us the year before It is worth noting that the major auto of the Increuod North American production wu u ruccor son of good harvesta rather than any great lo Croeso in crop arou. Thus in the bumpor your 1059/03 when production mu more than twico tho 1034-38 Avenge the increase in the crop uren Fus only 20 percent but the increase in tho yleld per hootard Dearly 70 percent (Tablo 8) Wh[o higher yields wero to . populdorable ortent duo to improved tochnical methode, they were also largely tho rerult of weather generally unfavorablo In 1934-38 and much moro favorablo in the postnur period, particularly in 1852/03. In futuro OT therefore, scraugo rostrlotion might bo reinforced by a return to lower ylakda. Similar Increason In globos per bootard are almo apparent in the Western European wheat growing arews and in the exporting oountries of the South orn Hombophero though in theso urou thoy uro partly affect by a muricod rodaotian lo tho Aret croppod For other corcel tho murplus problem low acuto. Although stocle of contro gralo fnoroa od in 1963/04 and may incrouro furtbor ta 1064/65 wine United States acrengo routrletlana on Dalto have not been fully effectivo thay do not yot appear to bo managouble particularly in vlow TULE . War Cror ARA, YOLD AND PRODUCTION DE CETTADT Rearoon ITEX 11I11 1140/10 1950/51 1031/01 1951/53 11/6 II1+1 me - Aorth drica Crop area Held por hectare. Grow production 120 110 14 17 179 119 IS 110 130 161 105 145 100 108 2013 116 157 180 Australia and Argenting Crop arne 170ld por bootaro Oron production 78 10 18 TO 190 111 100 នឌីន 81 146 10 76 110 110 07 ge 91 deren Jafor Ewopron Inporlar Crop are Hrold per hectare Grone productio 103 110 115 91 109 90 01 111 111 107 103 1. Beldus Tot nu tin Nepal Orteco Itab Ketberiud in United Klasson. 23 ·FIGURE 111 Wheat Supplies in North Ameria and the accumulation of Stocks +0 10 20 Apart from cercab tho Lergest stoola nro those of sager which have doubled in the last two yen bat horo tho rootsletions on production in Cube and the oxport quotus under the Internetton al Bagnt Agreement may in timo correct tho atuation. Morcovor rond per coput conscnption of ragar i rising stadily while that of ceroala (for all purposes) tends to comeln moro statio. For rubbor too production and consumption iro coming clorer togothor with a falling produo tlon of natural and restrictions on the output of synthetlo rubbor Similarly tho drustlo our tallment of Juto production to Pakistan will affoot. ively dispose of outstanding stoclo Excen stoala of deled shm mill in the United Statet und the Notherlande bare boon largely disposed of at low price for animal fooding and pricom hero aloo been reduced sharply in the Unitod Kingdom The main Loonmolation of stock of other commodities havo dovelopod in North Ameria, principally under United States price support schomo. Invontmonte of the Commodity Credit Corponton baro Inground moro thart throofold sinco 1852 Apart from cereals thoy uro partioolarly heavy In cotton, tobacco regotablo oila und moro racontly dairy products and wool (Tablo 9) Tho mooruroa boing adoptod by tho United State Government to adjust futuro production to orpootod demand and to dlapomo of orating purplomo ero dimomod in Chapter NI The problem of murplures has bukod so largo in rocent thinking that it to Important to me It in porspootivo, without ornggerating or minimiz 10 1 1 0 110 1750-31 18152 1952-00 1815 MIR acu More Ttal will Bec Horth torta Demi ndlther of growing plg numbers in the Unitod States. Tho Amo may bo uald of stocks of rice nocumalatod In Far Eastern sporting countries which aro moving moro [roely now that perces baro cand TULE O. LXVIITE 1 or rou UNITED STATA Con OPITY CEDIT CORPORATIOK 31 Karol CoorDITT 1943 194 1031 1903 11H los Ured state went What. falco Cotton mod ou Linered oli. Fler reed Buttor Cheon. 081 6 60 no rus tau 13 202 24 618 10 498 13 100 10 311 12 244 468 00 40 1 180 18 145 2009 184 1 71 IN 171 17 08 1 110 819 08 80 14 04 16 3 183 1 101 181 20 07 Tobacco Cotton upland Cotton Lintan Wool All otbor 6 101 62 1 170 05 170 1 308 00 81 MO 31 100 Total Total oxel cereala 11 II 1 701 KOD 3 008 1 095 0 240 3 816 und for teatritt - Xon of secolo ROCRO Arport Nukle Conditionis, CIDA City Credit Corporation, Ward 1931 AN 1944 29 ·00.co ing Ito roal dangers. For cercel, and experially for whout the problem is one of world olgnif ance Lod apart from widerpread wop faluren there seem, littlo doubt but that the wheat our plos will throw its shadow over rorli tnde for Potud masons to como lloroorar many countries in other parts of the world, 8, Latin Amoria, tho Leur East, the Far East, togethor with the 18.8.R. and China aro maintaining programe of curral expension, and then mast limit esport outlets for North Amertean grain. For sugar also aconmulated stocks and too largo to be dispor ed of quickly although Cuban restrictions and tho measures taken under the International Sugar Agreement Indiaato how the problem may be tackled. But hero too, programs to expand poroduction are being preved forward by sugar im porting countriou for balanco of payments or other Oatsido the United States the morplus problem appears for tho time being to be ending for most other commoditie. Dlout govornments are now concerned to establlah pololes which all bring production and demand more closely into lino by stimulating domestio or erport demand, or sometimes inori tably by restricting production. Meantimo tbero remains the problem of dropoung of current our planes. One important difference between the provent and the Interwar period of surplus is that today most of the orceu stocks et ander govern mant control and there la correspondingły len dan ger of an morgunined unloading of sapplica onto the martint boonus of the Anandal dinoulties of farmers and to como ortent of potato firms. The danger now be rather of widespread oxtepalon of two poco echemon and the export of unrant ed soppllow at rubatentially led than tho domostio prico. Enamples of thu trend are giren In the poction on sgrioultural prices. But thatorer Afeguarda ero taken och policies are apt to dopren market price and harm normal trading Tho FAQ Conference at Itu Sorenth Goslan rocognizing thin danger urged govornments to urdid mstbode of dipool that might rewalt in anduo prouuro on markets or interference with normal patterns of prodaction and indo The problem mg subvequently coowdered by the FAO Commit tce on Commodity Problem which dirouryod means bs which the dispel of rurphure might bo pred to rise nutritional standards of of rulnerable groups in under-dereloped countries or to eld economic development and defined the general principles which should be observed in the dirposal of agricultural earplokcy. The Com atteo on Commodity Problems also decided to establish . Btanding Committee in Washington for continning Inter-governmental consultation on nurplus disposal and on the possible effect of fach transactions, In the long run the problema is how to arold the ToCurrence of surplus staation oristing stocks have been liquidated, and bow to achloro greater stability of markota. In other words bow prodaction can be kept orpend ing to meet the growing roquirements of the over Increding world population, and the need to nel nutritional standards without at the smo timo over-running temporarily the effectire demand of cortimer for particular products of in particular area to an ortant that ercomire stock accumulto, or thot prices to producera are dopremed to an toprofitabio level This Tu ono of tho main problemos discued by tho Seventh Sendan of the PAO Conforenco in Novom ber 1053 and its conclosons on such policies of "solocttro oxpansion of production and consumption havo ben poblished in its report. Tho practical application of them pobcies is bang dlacunuod further in a series of reglamual meeting and consultations under FAO atupices 21eans of ensuring = balanced and harmonlou orpupulon of agrloultural production to bado tunk of the Organization, and the problem which member oountries are mooting and Mourey tboy aro adopting for thoir wolatlan ero dicioned throogh out the latter poctions of tbl report I. OD Food Consumption and Nutrition Tho Incroured food production achlovod during the past three year has boon reflected to modo ertent in Improrod quality of the diet in countrien whoro food consumption level are rolatively high and in an tactoured coorumption of staplo food, in the countries where food consumption is low For . number of reuot however food consumption in most area has not kept Paco with increasing prodaotian. Probably the most important alnglo factor is the generaly continuing high retail prices of food loro abondant food supplies have cured furta price to ouro uppto cably during the past year bat retall prices haro mot fallen to the wmo extent and hard evan riren in somo co potrtas bero food midler haro been sodocod or discontinued (Beo pego 14). Prco rigidity not only in tho retail actor in aloo partly responsible for morplurer of worttu foodatuita in North Ameria und for dificulties la disporlag of red supplies in Far Eastern crport ing countries. The emergence of earplore follow 30 ·tood corrumption Lovol hare however been maintained and sometimes increased by lower tiports and barger importa In both them regions as well as in other less doveloped territoriet food consumaption lorola except in . for countrieo remain far behind thor of North Americ Oceanis and Tyestern Europe (Figures IV and ) Tho need to DAITOT this wide gap by rising consumption lovila in lens doveloped countries intill the centre problem of the world. food situation. Bat it Is increuingły crident that the problem annot be polsed merely by the application of improved tochnique of production important u they aro. Unless means aan bo found to orpand effectivo consumers demand and to ab orb tho IncTCHI ing rolamo of production, farmers annot bo ozpoctod to run that output to the required loveb ing carllet periode of acuto shortage in many parts of the world is main indiation of the lack of balanco betteen food production and comumption. In comparing the slower oipanalo of food conxumption than of food production during the past two or three your other coulderations must also be taken into account. For example kome countrict especially those dependent on importı, hare built up food stocka to pfer lorek, eg India. Larger quantities of grain bero been Used u animal feed which although increasing the supply of tho mord nutrition livestock prodocto approclably reduces the total adorler arall able for human consumption. The name may bo aid of the reduction in four ertroetion ister which malo oro baan erilable for animal feed in this cuo, however the nutritional quality of the brand produced would be somewhat lover ed through a low of enertial nutriente. The in arrand otilization of food materials to improve tbo quality variety and palatabihty of the diet ntber than the quantity is of courro Dorel und uscally desdrablo accompaniment of increet ing food production. Neverthelem tho fact remain that tho quantity of foodstuffs coorumod mewored in terms of calories is it far too low in many countries, especially in the Far Eut (ace Andor Tablo I) Ex opt in . very four countries food ration ing of all kinds hus now been abolished price control hero bern removed or cured til further and greater freedom accorded to proto tnder in the distribution of foodatafla. But unless counternalling steps to oxpand consumer effec tiro demend ero adequate the remoral of controls specially on prices may inflct bardship on tho poorer sections of the population in many countries And restrict the outlots for food often of typer *hour consumption needs particular entounge ment National areng levels of food contumption, in terms of calories and proteina baro focently become somewhat stabilired and it difficult to detect significant changer year br year by food balance sheet methods. For instance notre tional lotels in the OEEC coontrier u. whole which fortested rapidly from 1947/48 to 105031, haro mbora nther Httlo change during the past three years. In the Far East the large abeolate annual incite in population in countries where premtire of population on land la very heart met cludes an npid rise in pet rapat lete. In Latin America the marked Inertite in food outpat to being ontstopped by abarpt nsing population, Trends in Food Consomption Patterns Wartime and post or food shortages and the Deed to concentrate on the production of high energy ylolling foods led to enforced chungen In tko pattern of food consumption over largo parts of the world. It is too carly to judgo wheth or any of these changes is likely to be perma dent though there are Indications that some may be. But it is already clear that with more abon dant mpplies and the relaxation of food controla there is strong general tendency to return to prowar pattern of food comfumption, except wheto changed prico relationships hevo perdisted In Europe for example the consumption of cereal and potatoes, bolly foods Hch in carbohydrates, created considerably during the far and poatuur en in order to ensure an adequato Intake of alories BF 1002/03 hovover tboro u 1 marked drop in the consumption of there foodstuffs especially of coarno gralds of which tho contumption wu half that of 1947/48 Similarly in Japan coulderable efforts wero medo to Increaso tbe production of sweet potatoes, but their con tumption is now oven below that protalling in prema year. The decline in the consumption of much food in many countries has been accom panied by « larger confumption of meat eggs and regetablo fats which were formerly in rety skort opply Kovoter promur lovele hare by no means been fally restored in all countries specially in the United Kingdom because of the more limited supplier of 68 mert for Import The reversion to the proper pattern of con sumption might bare lieen open pore pronounced 31

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·Distribution of the population of the World According to Dally intake of Animal Protein FIGURE V – Food and Population 4 0 TO lo P 5 DO De uk Lab Imat Jon s Arte Sot h fun 1.000,00 Itape M 1750 Gro! - Drot un more Org - Or 15 water MM mothe Ora - www Cute Uute e Aura MOC. Cohe hetk Hutt Dean Rex Puno to Orla El Sander Hondru MAN Covo dia OB ir Nem Palun Coylu Ny Clu hara Thu Intech Malm Sun Dag vet alla Lights h S Parten taly Stils Sard Tout W** n Garut Star Aurte Yeni Euran Ger Po Cochester HI Upon ub It rich Ww Arva MM SMU Intret Sen - Goldt Cont Cu Pro Mu Ana tephan Soak Cur 100 Keny 107 107 - South Wen Adrian 10) Norther 104 Son KTM 105 Round Un 104 – Thebe MARA 10 - The 101 - Mat 110 -- Unita 15 - Colombia 16 - Y Mante Odu Lord Inol CU Intre Av. Ne Zaken Koru AMINT Urt Agent Llana Alle 107 Hamul Spel War hercher ·werd largely responsible for an approdablo shift from rice to whout consumption to traditionally nico consuming countries of which to oxamples uro gran in Tablo 11 TAL 11 PD. CAPUT Surr.In or Riaz w WHEAT (nx Tnx or FLOUR) Ruloo Wbet bat for the uncertainties of the balance of pey manta atuation in some countito Somo important alterations in prowar consumption pattertu have occurred partly ontng to govern dont offorts and partly to changod price relation abipu in rame chrow these changeu seem likely to poreist. In the former category may bo placed the trapreusive Increase in the connumption of iluld milk, stimulated in many cases by nutritional oducation and other moustres including bubeddies. Tho roduod demand for buttar at current prices io, in komo countries . further factor in stimulating the malo of fald milk for humed consumption. It wooms unlikely that the long term trend towards higher milk consumption loveb in many countries Ill be retornod oven though in momo come, og tho United Kingdom, Denmark Norway and tho Notherlands there has boon some dochino from tho rooord lovebs atteinod . year or tvo ugo. Examples of the more significant increure ero giron in Table 10 Kus per bred 140 3 DO 92 24 88 Coyton 1934-38 iyong 1048/49-1961/62 ever LO 1908/03 1883/84 Japan 1034 J9 arora 1948/40 1951/6 avor ILITO 1960/000 1963/04 141 13 108 113 98 32 17 TADI1 10 PER CAPUT FLUID VOL UI CONTIOX Prar aner Cotnar 1910/ 1951 151/ 1757 1013) 1910 103 13 MO Ceylon Japan. United Kingdom Normy Italy United Stata Autrella Now Lauland I. por kad 831 BB 13 21 BE 100 IS I. IRS IM 13 240 24 48 220 120 110 IH 100 187 108 21% 378 No entante With the rooant fall in prices of now there is POIDO orldance that thte trond 4, at least partly being roverded. For the most part the incroumo In wheat consumption has takon placo in largo towns and constal citio which har en ouder 10004 to whout from abroad. The long term trand is anoortain ainoo rico ropplies are becoming curler to get and rico-cater habits are not endly changod bat an onlarged market for whent at loust in some of the roo ooreaming countricu may bo pormanont. For instance an active onmpaign is being curiod on In Japan to encourago the production and oorkumption of whoet and berloy and to rodaco tho con amption of Hico Ono factor Laly to affoct futuro trends of confumption & the incrousing recognition by governments of antritional caruldorations in plan ning agricultural programs and the efforts In lem doveloped areas to orpand the production of cheap but notritious foodstuffs nach u puber and fish though this sametimes involve the dificult procre of overcoming atabluhod profer onces for traditional dieta Far instance plant for large-scale commercial prodoctlan of rolled royz-milk is being installed in Indonela. Another imple is in chilo whero efforts are baing made to Almalato fish production and consumption, and where con unor accoptance tests of edible fan fotr have already been complete od ruceafolly A further factor which may affeot the pattera of food consumption for individual countries in the changes in age groups amocated with tho Perhaps tho most trung Wustration of the effoot of changed price rolationship to the increus ing robotitution of margerino for butter For oxample in the United States per caput corrumption of margarno L Dor almost equal to that of butter hering increased nearly threefold fram the pronu arengo of 1.3 kg per your whilo butter consumption fel by hall during the Ame period In many other butter consuming coun the this displacement to equals rapid despito numcroni retrotrans which handleep tho ulo of margarino Significant changes hare cho taken place in the consumoption of staple creek For instanco shortogo of reo in postwur year and the high priceo prevalling for riee compared with wheat 34 ·growth of population. Preliminary calculations indicate that in most countries arenge alorto requirements for tho population as a wholo will not be significantly changer but that thero may bo a shift in requirements for certain types of food For examplo whero birth rates remain high and Infant mortality rates and falling the proportion of children in tho population will tend to rito with. Cortosponding Incorso in the to quirements for milk and other protein rich foods Rocont studles estabibah beyond doubt that protoin malnutrition among young children is tho most serious deficiency diverse prorulent in tho onder fod are of the world A moro goneral quertion l the long term changer In conamption patterne accompanying Incrocod Industrialization and Hong real Income The most completo dets on sach changes relato to the United States. In that country total per apat food connmption, in terms of rotall wight hardly changed over the period from 1900 to 1002 but thoro were considerablo improvements in tho nutritional quality of the diet The consumption of grun products potatocs and meet potatoes which aro of Importanco mainly as sources of colorles, wus rodowed by about 40 percent On tho othor hand tho consumption of protootivo foods Increased coralderably e.g cabely over 40 percent green vegetables by about 60 percent and oltrus fult and tomatocs by 80 percent Con rumption of met, poultry and fish increased by only two porcent though within this group the consumption of beef hus becomo lotter and of poultry higher Before Torld War II similar tronds Fero apparent in most of tho industrial od countries in Europe. It does not of course follow that industrializa Hon in the len dovoloped countries will be accom panlod by dmllar changes in food consumption patterns. hero the calorio intako is extremely low tho Anst nood is for increased supplies of high energy food, and thoro is little doubt that this will be the early response to roing per caput roul income. Novertheless in the long run it is likely that the proportion of tho income spent on high energy foods will fall and that the consumption of protectivo foods will increase Figurea VI and VI show tho consumption of animal FIGURE VI Por Caput Supply of Animal Proten In Rolation to Per Caput National Incomo C. Lorchake saal n + LO NEW CALAMD AROEKTIMA USTRALIA SWEDENU. A DEKNARK IRELAND CANADA WITZERLAND FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM NI THERLANDS JELGIUM AUI TRIA WIERNANY LINLAND YEREZULLE U OF S AFRICA CHILE 8 UIT.LY 3.RHODESIA MEXICO GREECE BRAZIL PERU TURKEY EGYPT CEYLON PHILIPPNI JAPAN PAKISTAN 16 INDIA 8 f100 11000 ar mie teen Dooo 35 ·TALE 12 ESTIUTED VOLJO. OF ROTAL FOOD BausDY BAO QUANTO OY 1903 Coor I 11 III IV 104 Coruspending 111-11. 1071 1141 116) 116 107 100 102 103 103 105 107 103 071 102 103 108 103 102 105 100 104 103 100 100 101 103 101 103 103 100 103 104 105 101 104 100% 106 108 101 102 101 Autre ! Belgium Denmart. Finland Germany (Tastern) Motherlands Normy 8 redon Switzorland United Kingdom Canade Unitod Blata" 103 103 101 Food and tobacco Food co-operatino Tood, drink and tobacco Cooperatin retail males. A umilar indor for the Ant tu months 1954 world b. 100 Rotun EOE Lowe domy Ewrope in 1913 (th bequont deur applied by EOE Retrth and landing Dihiat) und Unltod Blatos ad Cane dia ciu statistics. the world has looo nood for the exceptionally largo hlpmonts of food and ospital goods from North Amorlon which wero vitally nocemary in the first porlod after the war The ousing both of the doller shortcgo and the food copply mtaation has restored greator froo dom of choice to the main importing countries Tho Unitod Kingdom for oumple in restoring the import of grain to privato trado bus lifted restrictions on the import of grains from "hard OUTONCY arou. Promiums on non-dollar grains havo dlaappeared and their prices on the world markot have fallon to about the smo local u gralne from tho doller Are Toi trond has been strongthonod by United States mouured to mako poodblo to . Ilmaitod ortent and under pocial conditions Imports of United State foodstuits against payments in national currencies natber then dollen. For the procent at least currency considerations count for much low than boforo In international trade in agricultural products and for moro and more commodities romething Approximating to . world market is again begin ning to emerge. in July 1983 to 123 in April 104. This fal of ten porcent ws us much w during the whole of tho propiow rooesalon from July 1918 to July 1910 Although the dealine of industrial prodao tion pu faster than in 1948/40 thord mu no accal eration, but rathor a fiattening out of the curvo in March April and Vay 1054 Unemployment increased with rouood industrial activity to 37 millions (6 8 percent) in March 1864 and foll loos then i amal at this time of the year to 3.3 millions in May Docreured employment conpled with a generally reduced work week ls cartelling labor incomo. Ferm incomes also foll and total personal Incomo wa roduced by 1.8 porcent during the reven months from October 1933 to April 1854 But the fall in incomer hun been offset by lower terod, and total dispouablo Incomea, and honco purohulng powor havo remain od almost unchanged, though their distribution botwoon different rootions of the population may hayo altered to come ertont. Rotall Ala In tho Arnt quartor of 1054 woro como four percont les than your carllor but tho main docline wu In durblo goods and u already noted rotall food les vore at about the samo lovel as in tho first quarter of 1933 whilo retall price lovela roman od almost unchanged. Tho main dlroot offoct of changes in United State oconomio activity on tho rout of the world Is through roperoakedon on United States im ports which run clopoly parallel with tho index of total industrial produotion. This relation ahlp hus so far hold trao in the present roomlon. Imports of wricultural products howover fall nathor more than those of other products and thoro e a noticoablo declino in importa of agri oultural aw material in the last quarter of 1003 Although some of tho samo 000mornio trends u in the Unitod Stata huyo boon ylbiblo In Canada their effect has so far been upelor and the fiscal year 1953/54 wu the most prosperous in tho country history Despito fall in farm incomo grom national product and both government and consumor orpenditures inclourd by about firo percont Novarthelem tho espansion in production abowed down approcłably in tho recond half of 1863 Doamployment rose to e post war poak of five und belf porcont in llarch 1054 und nu perticularly housy in agrloultural machin ory and othor Indostner worrieng agriculturo. MarcoTo Orports have declined mainly owing to mallor shipments of whoat Dow print lumber and agrioultonl machinery Economic dovelopments in Tester Europe showed . Fory different trond in 103/1 from The Economic Situation in 1953/54 in Each Region Almost all coonomic indiaton in the Unitod Btate showed a penistont decline during 1053/04 The indor of Industrial prodoction (Honsonally adjastel) fell from a peak of 137 (1917-40 - 100) 38 ·TALD 13 ALUE OF UTTET STATES LXTORTA 1131 1113 1931 ITEX Ird, #tha in ar ind or Itha 1 gr Vier V8 731 .815 784 8.3. 1017 1 07 נין I DI 208 1693 Total Imports Totol imports of Agrioultural pourts of whileh cruule food to otber than trude foodstul +7) 614 6 813 $14 KS 557 810 607 409 184 4 those in Vorth America. Industrial production, which had stagnated in 1932 started to expand once mort & from the second quarter of 1053 partly under the influence of United States defetuse expenditure including offshore parches. Por the area u. wholo the industrial output mus POTATI percent higher in the fint quarter of 1034 thon A year earlier The fastest progresu in Western Gerranny and Italy but there were alvo rubatantial increase in the United Kingdom the Vetherlande Yugoslavia, Austria and Greece Tho Scandinavian countnes Belgium and France however wbored little or no Industrial espansion. Export values increuad appreciably In the second balf of 1933 with the main gaine in Westem Germany and the United Kingdom. Much of tho increase bowerer mu dve to an expanalon of intna European trade and largely reflected Inercared consumption in Western Europe Im ports Increased toore slowl largely because agri cultural "Ipanion reduced food Import requiro menta and the term of trdo berumo moro faTorbike As a result total gold and foreign exchange holdings of EPU member countries including the reteret of the sterling area beld in London, increased by about $2,800 millone (nearly 25 percent) during 1953 In ner of the development and greater internal inancial stability CUTEDT retrictions were considerably relaxed. Agricultural prodacte met strong demand on the domestio markets Agroning pesaro of copramer demand hitberto intentionally kept at a low level appear to bere been the main reun for drastic changes in polies in the USSR and mont Eastern European coun the daring 1033 34 There are designed to speed op the output of coMOET goods particolarly agricultural prodlaete According to published data ther we likely to lad to a higher rate of Inreatment in agriculture in 1933 34 and mpecia) Is in 1834 JJ and 1833 36 The chance in em planlı has alto obora itzelf in . sberp Ingrike in Rumun imports of- of butter frult and other goods and also in increased shipments of goll from the U.B.S.R. in payment u red u larger esports of cotton, timber petroleum and certain mineral. Esports of grain, on the other hand here declined ind . dnre has been started to expand grain production, probably mainlr for animal feedmg Economic activity in Latin America u e shok showed little improvement in 1053/51 Industrial production continned to expand though rather more slowly than before and agricultural out put rou maintained but mining wue affected by reduced foreign demand. The payroents difficulties Iperienced in 1952 doo in large part to the sharp deterioration in Latin America. terms of trade vere oumd in 1853/04 partly owing to rising prices of some export products including coffee cocon, meat and wool but still more through OTETO restrictions on importa Total importu wtro somno 18 percent leu in 1813 than in 1959 Tot all Latin American republla benefited borerer from tho genen) improrement in the balanet of payments in particular those affected by the reduced North Ameran demand and lorer prices for non ferrous metals grala And cotton. The ruluo of the l'erusian rol declined Maiber sharper Chills onlied ito multiple exchange mter without borete stopping the donorard trend on the free market, Brasil aitallished New exchange ratem, und Vexico Bolnia and Pangur had to retort to doraluution. Tbo continuing unfaronlle term of trudo of most Far Esstem countries in particular the bigh import prices of capital goods, are a Umut lng factor on the pace of economic development and to some extent therefore on the expanion of coaromer demand for agricultural products. Indu which Ulko Chloe l not bearily dependent og foreign tnde is perhaps the least affected and recent progree muggests that the main Indus tried and Agricultant production targets not in 39 ·its fint Five Yaar Plan d be achieved. In order to locolorate progress the government bu roversod ito ourlier palloy and hus programmed for controllod deflat financing to tho ortont of $500 million in 1854/05 In vlow of large rocant Increased in tho production of food and consumar good, thero u thought to be littlo dangor of Infls. tion, but if nocesury the government will time its cubstantial foreign exchange resources to import additional food and other mapplies. Ja pen u facing worlour sconomio difficulties u. romnlt of reducod United States old tho problem of war repention payments to othor countries in South Eut Asia and its high internal prico lovel all of which havo groatly roduced the com petitiro power of Ita osports of manufactured goods. Other Aplan countriou uro al experiencing balanceof paymenta dificulties in 1963/64 Barma and Thaland for oxample are having to adjust their oconomie to Lowor Orport prices for rice while Malaya and Indonesia aro affected by the low poricon of rubber and tin. Paklaten we badly hit by the collapo of cotton and juto prices after the Korcen boom, and by the partial failure of the wheat crop in two nuocemivo your but bus since improved Its portion with the help of a Largo gift of United States wheat and higher prices to sharply us : result of shorter supplier (Fly ure XL with repercumloos on tho consumption and price of too It be in the coreals group that the most pridng fall in prices has occurred. A stoudy decline in the oxport price of whoat and course grans reflected the markoting dlmculties ancomtered by grin-esporting countries while tho record rice harvest of 1953/54 reversed the long apward trend of rico poleen. Price of sager bo camo stoadier following the restriction on Caben production and the negotiation of the new Inter national Sugar Agroement Tho market for oll woods and vegotablo oil bocamo moch firmor in 1863 but again weakoned somewhat in early 1864 with increasing mapphen Prico movements of livestock products were leus clow-out. Higher price woro agrood for dairy products shipped to the United Kingdom from the Southern Hom! sphoro and Denmark, but other who paloc tended to f cxcept whore thoy waro maintained by govornmont supporte. Export prices of ogge fall FIGURE LX for jute. Lack of capital, ax copt in oil oxporting countries Also rotards economic development and the growth of tho domoetio demand for foodatuits in the Maar Eust. Turtoy contingen Its remarkablo progrem but peymonta didioulties, duo in part to houry imports of capital goode compelled her to ruspend tho Liberaluation of importa from tho EPU area. Egypt « country roceiving little or no apital from abroad, ahovod doftationery tendencies and a lower nato of apital Investment. Ln Australia and Nor Zauband tho economio situation continued to improve in 1953/54. Indo trial activity incomod further Inflationary prete sores dimintihed, and price of most esport prod ucts except wheat were higher than in 1862/03 Net Du Pet hotel ke Gud Auto Litter Morher wholesale wia to % fout ce De work I prea ton. Urodt battle Argesch Lhaken runt ( 1e Are ) , pol460-170 kgl. huht, for art. Au torbeel het, hofer to her trykt mye mwen for bmw crop. U.S. Chata Leweyhe 700-11001 M. Giaº h • nhu, th, DTH I, chent ut G Cardal No. 1 Northern Mabe home part Wintert Arth HI WA US Na 2 l Wheter at me x lar. Cum Ne. I Northen Mater, ortak MWA Hoe ULIN I How ca pekee dc. Super My Othe Sayu Leb. Tant prkce rodentunthe ether the U.L (No. 4 costrutt Cocos el TK X that, ILLI Php. Me 1 CW ma to mwen Prices of Agricultural Products Can Acer, et Mar Yertu Cate Trotle settes No. 4 ned, New York Tv Cuarto to nurt (1) Letic prle Lau. for Free Smartre 25 x 7 than pia هما معهما WL in Mom Anna mhy arent in hy oport we In spite of the generally mutained level of demand, the marked recent changes in the supply dtuation hero inoritably been reflected in price lovel. Broudly speaking prices of rome but not ] foodstuffs tended to fall during 1853/54 palces of raw material inelading forest prodacta, vero much toodler after tbe sharp fans of 1952 while in the borongo group coffee and cocoe prices US stule, et NY West UK, De tow the U.K Cut Karmel Aloner Ah, te qelny Nerisque 10 ·FIGURE IX - Movement of Price of Selected Agricultural and Forestry Product (January June 1950 - 100) (tepek al bw Porn Grun 150 150 100 100 B A Date the Dock but bratt C D H Malta U..I When UI. CuN 1 Oruko JL Marta Attrack Parts (U...I + r ) Unted HO ro 250 100 MA 110 200 100 150 488 98 8888888 D Leef met Art Authulle Le orth US. a res. L What Cards IM Mula ATM N Bartey in I prin vorreble Oitt 200 200 1 160 8:3R9 ORER & B A Um Ch 1 CACHIN 1 in Cher Cab D Ca. U. Cat US. I Tu KM her Peca Lt Meterd 100 200 voo 110 150 100 100 TO 10 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 4 t 7 ) 161 17 o Wes Hunter Sun Menime haiNUL 4 4 1 7) 171 192 La USA We UL N Tпно 1 163 t Cisco ·sharply Boof ottlo prioos becamo steedler efter the marked fall in North America and the mark od nito in Southern Homlophoro osporting coun trias dunng 1852/03 Proes of pige tanded to Incrous in North America, and in como but not all, countries in Western Europe. Tho gerrara! affect of these change wu to rodaoo the custlag wido disparities in livestock prioce in different parts of the world. In the nuv material group prices have been genonlly stable Thero wus slow downward trond of rabbor prices during 1053 but the market for rubbor and aloo for cotton bocame irmor in early 1851, while thero wu en approdablo Hee in foto prices following drustlo rootrictions on production Wool and hidas showed no definito prior trondo. Tobacco pricorn ero firmer In North America bat tended to fall elsewhere Prioca of forest products romainod remarkably stablo romo 20-30 percent below tho 1051 boom lovol but alightly higher than at the end of 1952. A chanzoterlotio aspect of the development of forcat producto prices la tho time lag betwoon tho falling of round wood and tho markoting of fintah od producta which varies from one to three yeen though changes in market condition affoot prices of raw material und Anlahed products omul taneomly This orplein the finenolet difficulties of the forest industries in the main or parting countries in 1052/03 Changou in market prices aro bo rofloctod coralderably later in International trado Thou whilo prioce already had bwcomo stabilised and oven shorod uomo advances in 1953 tho mal de of exports by the northern European countries In this year was borer than in 1852 dospite . larger volume of trado For many agricultural produota tho dopaward movoment of priood in 1063/64 would of courro havo boon much greator but for various stabla. Hon vahema. The restriction of ouger und futo prodaction duro dondy beon mentioned larly tho rooovery of cotton prices wu only por alblo becsuko of the withdrawal from tho market of octu ropplies in tho United States Agata the halt In the downward trend of rubber police mu partly doo to the rouponalon la tho United States of rotation stocks males and a wystardatio limitation on the output of synthotio rubber Prico support schomes havo maintainod tho domortlo prloo lovels for carosla in many countries but have not proventod e considerablo fall in pricom on tho intotnational Dartete Lack of stor uge speco hus Intonafted the prooraro to mall in Home countries 0-8, Awtrale, Burma Canada and Turtoy with incrounding compotition, from wheet oxport prioc haro doallnod to the memo lovelu price under the International Tout Agroament, and tho latter throughout 1003/04 were for tho int timo signiicantly below the merlmum loral of the renowod Agroement. Alany wbout aportar, including tho United States, Argentine, Turkey Franco und Swodon havo mido groater to of sobaldion in order to remain compotitivo. In ourly JO 1914 Unltod State Government Inorou od tho sabeldy on whoat osports from 45 to 50 conta per buahel, East Couet porto (oquivalent to $10.5 to $20.2 per motro ton) and soon after the Cana dlan Wheat Bourd also dearded to reduce port TAN 14 WHAT COPARDBOY OF PRODUOB AND FTOHT PRICE Lumuted aron prior to producen ATOTO od uporta lob (OLX 1951/ 1023/51 Jny/Duo 1151 JJJ 1953 Jolteo. 11 Jea. Acurah 1054 U8 do Mutrien 10.5 104 8 100 103 100 meden France Argentne United States (nada Aurtu Turkoy 03 81 00 T7 100 73 481 43 100 m3ww伊%的 48分切 42 73 100 125 108 Itincted Tengo niton to prostorem Guaranteed poet producer Arengt for ant tube Dogth 110H Arnt fix it borr Port Arthu Toon Iti 1 ratt m., roblett நய பt.. EXUmaid out I productie bie u rolatndt prodan Le trate dot rit non Cu priet 1 Armitide at at orth Atlantic porta are under JoJo 11 rolatu only to Nereb/Jn Tot nulable — Yope or boble HOCHO croul tatok tod data to Arenge romut rcodacen toppiled by forehonaptate PAO ·prices by 10%, renta per buubel. Similar condi thons are developing is the corno graim marhet In VAT 1034 the United States announced in esport cabelds of 15 centa per buubel (U.S. $0 to 7 pet metno ton) on shipments of barlet maize and mye ind of 10 cents per bushel (about U 8. $7 per metrio ton) on shipments of oat.. Cerrals are the most striking but not tho only example of rubaldired oportu. Thus the United States has offered par play butter for export at 10-48 centa per pound compared with the domatio price of about 60 cents, and Norway Sweden, Finland and Ireland hero alvo erported butter at prices rabatantially met than those paid to domestic producer. The same Is truof erports of checte from Austria, mest end slaughter attle from France and Buitzerland Unseed oil and died beinu from tho United Stoter, and mgar from France Belgium and Denmark Nevertheleu It rould be wrong to thnk of the trend of agricultural poker, or event of food proces, 4 uniretually downward. As already noted poi ces of a number of commodities are rising Stil more significant the price index for all food#tuffs Imported by OEEC countries tho largest world market for agricultural imports showed no dgni ficant declino danng 1053 and roco mharply in the first quarter of 1054 while a similar index for the United Kingdom fell by only two percent dur ing the year Tho fall in prires of cernal and sugar thus appears to have been offeet by rising prices of vegetablo olla and bovenges and of hve stock products importod Into the United King dom farm price indices fell by a further alt percent and eboren percent respectively during 10 though they recovered slightly in the fint quarter of 1854 In estem Europe farm prices hato been consider bir more stable Comparing the fint quarter of 1033 with the first quarter of 10 the Index of farm prices fel by two to three percent in Ireland, Denmark Finland and the United King damn, showed not more than ono percent change in Austris the Netherlands and Britzerland and roue by two to il percent in Teatern Germany Belgium and normy In France and Italy wholesale prices of agricultural products which trually follow farm price rather closely fall by two to threo percent. Unfortunately rather for comparable Indices are arallable outoldo North America and Earope The farm pico inox fell by about two percent in South Africa and by el percent in Australia, while In Mexico wboltalo prices of agricultural prodacta roke by the percent. Prices also tended to be in the Far East tho index of cholenlo prices romo by about one percent during 1933 in Burma and in India bg roven percent wbillo la Japan the poor barrest drove the farm price Inder up by 13 percent. There is little doubt that e 8 Western European farm prices would have been lem atable without the opention of price rapport pollden bat this does not fully account for tho differenco in price trende between that region and North America. By no means all Western European prod nots are covorod by price support measuren, and on tho wholo price rapport schemes are us cam prehensive in North Amories w in Western Ea горо a Loreover the relatiro stability of farm prices wu orident in European oxporting coun trier mach u Denmark us well In importing countries. The main explanation rem to lie in the greater imbalance between production and re quirements in North America than in Europe levertheless tho madden Initation of the cost to tho tarpayer of farta price sopport pobcier in both Worth Ameria and Western Europo i catti ing concern to governments and alto to produc er who to the continuation of their outleu threat ened and fear sharp fall in pricet. La Western European countriet for example tho guaranteed prices of cernal anti recently unully comper able with or below the cost of imported supplies aro Dor genenlr above world market letel per ticalerly with the increasing tendency to mbal doo exports the cost of the guarantees has thus become mbetuntial in the United States the current lorel of rapport prices for whert Interall TAJU & Patct Ixpic or IYOTTED FOOD TUR COCT Mit Hcond Third Fortb First qor qur զար ter ter te 191 1133 1153 11. 1051 1155 - 16. rom Au oEEL trial 101 107 100 100 104 United Kingdom 23 DS First two oth Not OEL lut Kordon Raititu. Farm Prices The increuing premure of supply in many com moditici rut reflected in farp price levels depite the operation of price support polide The de elimo wu datunlly sbarpest in the major surplus countries. In the United States and Canada the +3 ·grey to reduce the guarnatood wheat producen price thero huko for boon hardly any tendency to chango fart price policies in the regionu most countries and continuing their efforts to or pend production, including tho production of commodities ruchu cereal end togar which are in forplu supply in other countrian In the lang mun, howerar la thero roglom us to North America and Water Europe the probable outlook i for lower farm priood and lower price rapports for products for which large murplar odat. Retadl Food Prices od by = nie of good harrots, hu led to a valumo of production well boyond the capacity of the domortio and the shrinking export market and has involved tho government in houry exponditure In other cases where goeranteed prices werd in tentionally fixed at a high level u un Incentivo to production, 0.8 for livestock products In como Westem European countries, tho cypendon of production hu oatrun tho a beorptire apadty of the market at current price lorola Marooror high wupport prices eg for butter here cometime encouraged transfor of demand to alternthe producta. Yith tho fall in world prices and inctoured production of some foodstuffs, subudice whloh originally could be regarded primarily us consumer subsidia i Dow becauning largely producer subaldle, of milk and whout in the United Kingdom No country hou yot abandonod ito farm prico support polioy but thero lo romo tendency to roduce pnco mupport lorebs und more than one got ernment is feeling its way toward a limitation of its commitments or moro fodble price rapport system. In tho Uoitod States tho panty ratio for dairy products hu boon roduced from 90 to 78 percent and fedblo perity witom with support lovels changing in accordando olth the supply a tuation has been proposed. In the United King dom guaranteed prices for pigo and mink wuro lightly reducod at the Fobrury 1851 pulco rovlow And tho guaranteed price for milk Imitod to * certain rolamo of prodaotion. Thero here also been changes in the methods of implementing pried supports, particularly for cercals and ment, following the return to prtrato tradmog these changes lourd copadorably more play to market domand Sweden has reduced guaranteed price of broadgrains botter and eggo aod restricted tbo guarintee to ule on tho domestio market. In France lower gierunteed prices are to be an. nounced at the end of July for wheat and aro under consideration for mik Other couples could be quoted Oataldo North Ameria and Yastern Europo [am prico support palicia are leas widely develop od but similar problemu mom likely to aria For orample guaranteed prices to rice gruwort show • Tory do versation fross country to country QE the price peld in Coylon is four times that in Bursne et cureat ouebango nte. Esport prices of nico are still high in relation to the ro cently reduced price of wheat Although some examples could be poentionod eg the abandon ment in Brazil of price cupport for the 1851 cotton crop the plant of the GOTETTIDent of Ura In most countries retall food prices romained other stablo in 1983 The Lost effoute of Inie. tionery prowuroa nafuod indice of retail food pe ces by 22 porcont in Bradl from tho lut quarter of 1902 to tho lost quarter of 1963 by 10 to 16 parcant in Japan, Indonou and Inn, und by about rovan porcent in Pakhten, Australia and New Zealand Thero mas e fall of momo five per cont in Franco Egypt Cube and Morio bat in most other countries indicou of rotall food price changed by nontord than a fow points during tho year An unstlofactory foaturo of rocent prico trends has been tho anually slow and Hmited reporting of rotall prices to ahanges in wholesale prices, and tho widening gap botn con tho cost of food at the farm gato and the cost to tho cansamer This tandonoy is very Appartnt in North America. During tho youu 1802 und 1003 fara price fall by 17 portant to UBA. and 23 porcont in Canada and more followed closely by wholesale pricom bot retail food poceo foll in the amo period by only two poroont and oight parcant rospootively (Tmblo 10) A similar trend u ovldont In ramo Euro pean countrie, og Italy and Bolgium, whero farma prices fell momowhat during the past two yeart whilo rotall prices oontlanod to coop apmande. In como instancou, however og the Unit. od Kingdom and Normy tho divergent price trends were largely due to the roduction of com sumar food mabaddict As it b only the retail price which affects to final domand, the Higidity of total prices dorpito falling form and wholocado pelcou must bero rodeon od the expansion of demand which might here followed from lower fart prices, and la thlı ray contributed to the pillog up of marples and tend od to rodoco ferma poceo still further Form and stail pico Indices do not atstotly comportblo in that the form fodico Indodo na materials which do not appear in the retal Indice ·FIGURE X -- U.S.A. Dlıtribution of Recall Cost of Domestially Produced food between Farm Value and Marketing Costs (Induding Transport and Processing) TAJL 16 PERCENTAGE CTAXOD TY INDICE, FARM Peton, W.OLIUL. PRICE OT AORICULTURAL PRODUCT AXD RETAIL Foop PRICER Tam (ORY rite Ip-de 1 hotele prler of nato product Luder of retail food price 1000 MIL Ponte tar cho Vorth America U.S.A Canede 17 15 11 Il + 6 Western Europe United Kingdom Germany (Western) Panco Italy Finland, Torway Sweden Denmark Netherland Belgium Iroland, Rop of Switzorland Austria + +++11+ 11+||| +++1| + 10 1 + 1 | [+|| wwwdott 17 ++++ Other Artan Hadoo Australia (NIT) South Africa Egypt Japan Indu. Burda 1 .18 $18 : + 13 ++! | +11 1 !+! +++ + 10 9 Tout but Xerembe 1033 To July Aorut 1053 Lichte wool Food and tobacco ou Vorted ep the afteret food protocta Gepen whole prett. Yot rentable 14 tro 1H IM 179 1 172 10 Mort U-8. Department of Agricoltura Por ti, tre per Bulation Tegen 114 (the form an appreciablo part of the farm out pat in the United States Mexico South Africa and Egypt among the countries included in Tablo 10) while the retail prices cover imported us wel u homo produced food.. The differences in corongo may affect the magnitudo of tho percentago changes shown in Tablo 16 but do not appear to affect their general implation For examplo during the two sean under reviow farm prices of "market bukot of domestial ly produced foods in the United States fell by orer ton percent and retail price of the amo foods by less than four percent whilo marketing corts increuad by nearly three percent A recent terroy of erailablo dete brings out bow largely the cost of food processing and distri bation balls in the retall price. In oight countries for whilch faris comprehensive estimates here been made these marketing charges ropremented from 30 percent up to 6 percent and at timen han wala Herber به مرا 10 ·Dearly 70 percent of the final cost to the con somer of his total purchases of food. Thus in tho Unitod States, for which the dete ir most completo, marketing coets mounted to 68 percent of the rotall cost of food in 1032 during the dopret non fall to 40 porcent in 1940 in the period of multimo control, and rato gain to 2 percent dur ing tho jaan 1948-01 end to 65 percent in 1813/14 It is ovident, therefore, that greater afficiency in marketing and oconomies in the cost of procesing and distrbation con bo compenblo in importanco to greater efficiency and reductions of cost on the production vido in bringing foodooffs within tho purohanng power of contumen and thus nlning food consomption lorals and natritional standard It is equally ovident that lower production costo mll bo inoffective for this purpose if they are ab orbed in tho marketing margin aad not poured on to the consumor Form Incomes Farto Income depend not only on the lovel of price of agricultural products, but aloo on the rolamo of production and the ratlo bot den tho pricou rocoined by farmers and then they pay for fortilizers machinery and other necesary farm requisita. Rather fow ovuntrie publub statistia of sach prico ration and in most of them the movement of price during the past fov year hus oporutod to thodimdyantage of Carmen (Table 17) The decline has been much more marked in Torth Ameria however than in Europe where in some countries, 8 Bwitrerland and Finland, price rolationship bavo remained remarlaabts constant during the past three yren Japan is an exception to the general trend and there recent price moremonta horo tonded to benefit farger. La dorth Amoncs tbo doeliise of the pileo nitio in the past threo yan bu Leen doe mainly to falhng farm prices the love of prices which far mons have to pay showing relatively little changes On the ot bor hand, whero tbe to has futen In European countries (0 & Tester Germany Belgium the Netherlands) the offect has beon primarily duo to the rising prices of farm requi Estimates of farm incomes themselves are proper od annually by . limited number of countries, mainly in tho moro doveloped regions and show #inclar trend. Thus in North Amoria for which incomo data ero the most comploto farm Inoumon roud to peak in 1951 after the rocowion of 1840 bat baro aace fallen steadily and in both the United States and Canada mero nather more than 20 percent leur In 1833 than in 181 The percentago fall Labont tbo smo both la terme of money end of real purehulng power (not income deflated by coat of Hiring Indoz) and Leo far farm ons and for agricultural Incomo us whole, includ ing the age of paid farm wortor. As the nam ber of people engaged lo agriculture by falling how or the decline in per aput ferm Incomes old bo rather loga then in forma income we whole In North America the fall in prices of farm products was almost entirely responsible for tho doelino in agricultural incomes us both tho total ralumo of production and production costs abowod rele. tivaly little change. In Western European countries, on the other hand both tho not income of farmhart and total agrfoultural incomes (including farm worker wagoe) hero boon malatained or hare tended to nee since 1901 in tort of money though not always in term of purchasing power lot et countries maldng much cotimato, ho worer havo yot published figures for 1063 or 1853/04 The groeter stabiilty of farm Incounter in Europe than in North America route partly from the firper prices of farm products and partly from the sharp Inorous in the volume of production Gron roturns to farmer hero thoroforo incrocod und this bus largely bet the reing costs of produc tlon togalting from the incroured price of farm requisitos Farm lacomes to Dowanla havo fcotuated aharply in terms of money falling Lenvlly from the 2001 peak to 1952 but recorering comiderably in 1969 Oming to inflationery tendance anly brought to, halt in 1853 tho purchadng power of fum tacotta ber slog boworor doce 1901 Rocent movements of farm incomes from your to your in one oantry from ouch of tho sbove rogloos the United Stator the United Kingdom and Austrlie, ure Bestrated in Figure XL Unfortunately comparable data aro not available for countrio. outad, these regione. In 1934 fett Lacomos In the United States and expected to declldo by around ito porcent compar od with 1853 because of continuing drone mortment of prices and analler volume of produotionum rent of retiletlom. Production ratric The sue of the marketing margto narzes not nals mt the micrenry of marketing, but also th the land of food mun contumet (the over all mar in naturally teacts t be harmar when bulky permis able or highly processed food. form. Large part of the dret) and oth the type of service provided to the customer In more udrunced countries, at lng due to the greater eficiency of marketing tend to bo offset by more clubunto arvice and higher degree of proceeng 10 ·TALE 17 RATio Or Pricre lotTED AXD PRICES PAID BY FARXERS 1151 1951 1133 Jun Jua 1031 Jlyiller ITTY 1754 Junta on ( oY J 128 113 111 110 114 104 100 113 07 103 111 2.3 107 113 25 14 117 110 108 107 114 14 101 119 20 & 1108 111 108 110 06 114 97 107 120 BO JOS 121 87 181 124 120 120 119 3 121 102 111 121 100 121 198 106 100 112 United State (a) Trice morird. (b) Front paid (c) Ratlo alb Canada (a) Picea rocinad (b) Pnces pald (c) Ratio ajo Belgium (a) PHeet rrected (6) Price raid (r) Ratlo a 6 Finland (a) Priemy received (6) Prices mald (r) Ratlo ajo Netherlands (a) Pre receivel. (b) Price paid (c) Ratlo ab \orway (a) Prices received (b) Prices pald (c) Retro (1) Germany Wentron) (a) Pricee received. (5) Price paid (c) Ratlo alb Japan (a) Pricey received. (6) Prioes pald (c) Ratlo at Hitzorland (a) Prict received (3) Picou paid Ratio ab 115 Izo 07 114 128 01 113 I 01 11B 127 13 07 113 120 132 91 110 13.5 124 136 120 137 92 85 111 121 92 118 131 00 111 132 844 113 in 87 114 130 88 145 127 120 140 131 107 131 IM 13.3 134 10 140 116 110 103 100 37 104 109 100 10.8 103 107 104 100 03 Joury r bru 1954 Jly Detta ber 1011 tlone in tho United Stator will operato still moto strongly in 1054 Similar tendencies are likely in Canadı doring 1854 particularly in rem of formen intontion to reduce the wheat acreage though womo of this area will be transferred to warso grate is a favorable factor in the Important livestock Loctor It is too early to say how tho rolume of output in 1954 will comparo with tho rory largo 1053 production, but there are at keut no restrictions on production - in some other other crop ured. Tn Ocanla on the other hand farm incomat Tuy Increase in 1854 compared with 1053 Al though coste may continue to rise aloris firmer price for mol sod slight Increukt in prices for the remaining contracts with the United Kingdom may outweigh any reatening in tho orport market for whont. Broroover Incomes - be nogmented by tbe somewhat increased plumo of production For Western Earopo prospects are thet the rela tire stability of farm Income mey be melntalond in spite of increased competition from overhau fupplies and tendency to reduce price fupport lovelo slace it la the policy of a number of Forum ments to maintain . truonable stability of farm incomes Voreover the lower cogt of imported The abovo paragraphs aro bevod in the pain on cstimates prepared by the agricultural wothor itle of the countries concerned. In udition, ho worer national Incomo statistia published by the United Nations on tbo bulu of Information mupplied by the countries thon ches, show tho industrial origin of tho net domestic product. They thus provide basis for roughly estimating how inoomsau in thosricultnl rector including forestry and is horle hard moved in relation to incomon In other occupatiow (Tabto 18) A number of polnts como out of these compari In the first place only in low Zealand soch. in Statistiaal Series Ho, Fobruer, 1951 ·FGURE XI - Agricultural Income In the United Saates, United Kingdom and Australia at Current Prices UNITED STATES 30 10 11. 140 18 1956 1951 UNITED KINGDOM ML among tho counties listed hare arerio agricul turl income in rocent years been codebtedly higher than a rarago incomes in othor Occupations, Rough perity between form and son farm Income appears to have been recabed in tho United King dom and the divergence is not very greet In Theat omn Garmeny und Denmark. In most countries, hovovor por aput Incomes in agriculture rango from two-thirds to ano-half of tboo in other ocotrpations una stole and and wometimes eren lowot Tho estimates do not includo say ineomo rootved by the farm population from ponegricultural sources, c.8. handicrafts or part-time om ployment lo Industry and marrices, but the roceipts Fould be too umall to have moch offect on the goveral picture. The estimates are how Over Infloccod to como estent by the fact that in most countries thero tend to bo a larger num ber of children in farm than in urban famillos. The figures of course whow only tho compar stivo portion in acah country and tell nothing of the booluto level of incomo. It is certain, for bamplo, that averago fum incomes in the United States are much larger than in many countries with higher percentago ration, and the rather low figures for tho United States in Tablo 18 rofloot the high Inoamnet gulnod outaldo agri culturo rather than . low level of farm income For ul countries for which the comparison i Avallable tho relatiro poaltion of agriculture hus Improvod substantially compared with 1938, when, howote agricultural income were all worloanly effooted by the dopremtom of the thirties. Poat war trends nary from country to country Thu in Thottern Germany Denmark od Tutoy tho relative position of tho farmer seems to bo gradual ly improving In Awtrie Ireland Peru and the Philippines, to quoto only for crumpler be wema at lout to be holding his own On the other hand in some countries, Including Japan, Italy Belgium and to a low extent the United States and Norway agricultural incomes have lost ground in rolation to incomes in other industrie doring the past few yean. Tho margin of error to estimate of this Had must be considerable and the concept of pational Income and farm population very pompowbat from country to country NO tocount should therefore be taken of moal ditforenom betroen countries. The jour to your eatimate for ongle countrie, horover should be moro comparablo and probably roreal gononl trends without exceptro distortion. On the whole it appears that whilo farmers bero improved their relatiro podtlon in mont parts of the world in comparison with the thirtles, those 100 AR 0 100 141/50 1700 1751/12 1910/13 1134 AUSTRALA 1,000 13 1950 31 1811 1952/31 ISH (weeble) Greu Not enorm ten Net Kort M He упан пік nl - Kut Nurt - 48 ·TARU 16 I'TIR DArUT IXOOXIX AQUICULTURE, FORTY AND FORDEA 4. A L'ERCISXTAOC or PR CAPUT Ixcox D ALL OTHEA OCUOTATIONS 19T 1913 1919 19 1931 1911 Percent 100 160 132 101 163 47 13 81 81 ዚነ TA 77 81 00 67 42 00 os 01 28 338 388 81 8 81 Na Talamel. United Kingdom Gormar (1lcstem) Denmark Austria Canada Turkey Greece Finland Vorway Irolard (Rop. of) Italy Unitod States Bolgion Poru Jopen Philippines DO ol 82 3 ca & 81 02 31 LS 70 17 7 47 合占 4 42 45 41 40 41 10 10 40 31 37 348 20 Xot Aula dhe Machop Daned on UX out of pational heon And TAO olmates of lealtadal population. UTO onoo moro gulna ato not overywhoro being held and in good many comtrios farm Incomes falling further behind incomes in other pert pations INVESTMENT AND CREDIT Although overall satistics of public and privato fonde invented in wrioulture are very Inadequate It is wel bouwo that Lack of opital la mujer factor rotarding agricultural development in most grarts of the world and particularly in the Fur East und Latin America. Not mach progrew an bo reported in the providon of funds for wricultore in recent your, orcopt to some extent in the mobilization of domestio ospital. Sorno attempts havo beon made horever to facilitate the intentment of foreign apital. A number of capital importing countries hore adopted measures to attract mon foreign aptal, and the United States, the largont apital ozporting coun try has dored turn on profits from foreign la vestment Arocent United Natlow reportatimated the current det unnual outflow of printo capital at about $2,000 million, no more than the lorel renched in the 1990. despite the marked decline in the real purchasing power of monoy and tho largo orpandon of the world. oconomy Thi figuro la of online the total for all industries, and to .] countries incoding mach dovelopod countries a Canada Tho roport braphonhos the tendonov for the bulk of rgoh funds to be inretto la anter prises under tho managerial control of the foreign Investor which appreciably limita tho powłbility of layout pont in agrloulture The International Bank has romained the most important source of pabulo funds in the field of foreign investment and la the lart fucal year the total of loan authorized Incloured considerably Thomo directly alding agriculture however remain ed about copstant w that the share of agricultora declined Agriculture of courto benefits indireot. ly from mbetantially inoroased louns for og electrlo poner ud transportation facilities. The United States Export Import Bank main toined in 1983 the same lovel of loan authorizations u fa the previous Hr hat granted bone directly uding agriculture, There bas been modo corinal of portfolio Investment particularly in Bulu ap! tal osporte, but thero contribate to agricultural development only marginally in strengthening the currency podtian of the borrowing countria Finandag of colonial development continue with Increasing direct borroring of colonial govern ments of individual enterprises on the metropoli The International Flax of Pro Capital 1945 1851 (E31) United Natioas. Yo lorf, January 1954 40 ·TABLE 19 LYTELXATIONAL BON OR REOON TRUCTIOX AXD DMTOTNZXT LOAN AUTHORITID Y 1982/1983 AND 1053154 Ιπ 1 July 1 Jaly 1156 1183 Ho Jo Jodoto Jou 1933 111 Vie U8 her Total los suthorisod 178 7 21 43 0 13 ID B Due tly aiding agriculture Blohinery and spare parts lmigation and flood control Grain tongo Timobor equipment Proooming industrien Julti purpose loans 50 03 00 17 0 0 0 148 40 0 Indiretly aiding agrire Trnoport Power Other 213 7 104 a 109) Parent Peronnt dirootly alding 4rloul ture 198 1 14 D Iachadw credits to Arne, naland Tepes India and Poru. IDolade Otoditat Autre, lockord, Italy Pin and Poro. La lader & crudt i $ 30 millin to Tarourie, partly to thatin i forest rewareen and production I rarerpbor pbata. -- NOTA netti HOUT IBND A*** Report 1013/05 and preselor by onlarging tho role of the Central Benb in po viding funds to agriculturo and by roorganding and strengthening the o-operativo credit moto mont Anner Tablo II maggosto in fact KODO Increase in the provision of farm rodit in 1954 oompared with 1851 Thm of 20 countria for which comparable data aro anale ble 13 showed Inorousod loans in 1052 yainst one with Do change and a which rodocod the lovel of londing For thoto countries, however total loans loned in 100woro four porcent lower than in 1891 the over-al igorts being considerably attootod by a marked dooline in the rate of landing in the Unitod Statou. Loum outstanding at the ood of 1903 wore higher in 17 of tho 31 countries for which comperativo figura ero snalleblo uod lower la only four Total loans ontstanding at tho and of 1902 for tho 21 countries wero 12 percant higher than a your carller The rory different level of urodit frolliton in different ragions and controu, however le or dent from Tablo 20 which relate the amount of loans rued in 1982 to the grloultural aren (arablo oqalvalent) and tho sgrioultural population On an aron ban, loans tond to be highout in fairly dranood countries with . considerablo preomuro of rural population ruch u Japan, Italy and Belgium. On . per asprut bule they uro highout in adnunood oorintrlow with high agrloultural output por men (0.8 Now Zoelend Unitod Btatos) or with wall-doveloped co-operativo organizations Soundinavian countries) Thoy mro bo high in Israel whoro pocłal ottontion to being giron to agricultural dovelopment Tho tablo emphasizou boveTor tho ostromo Inadequoy of institutional Agricultural crevlit op efther bank of comparison in most countries in the Far East the Nour Past Aftas und Latin Amaria. Tho grostet ditticulty in providing adoqueto credit facilities in under dovrloped countries i admittodly the gamenl shortego of apitel but It appean that in many cases Lack of propor financing Insti tutions has been largely responsiblo for thotr inability to mobilizo for agricultural developmont over the limited domootio resources and bla Commercial banks and an important sourco of Agricultural credit in moto advanced countries In tho Unitod States for example 01 poroant of the total agricultural modłt outstanding at the end of 19 aume from commorotal bank wd to Franco companies (Incloding to this como much of the long term or farza rool estato bu) whilo in Italy the corresponding figuro wo 65 percont, la Modeo 38 percent In Now Zoolaod 28 percent and in Nomy and Sroderi 11 poroont Com ten markets in addition to loan from metropolitan govorimonto and financial institution.. Domostio mourne #ill, homover provide the great bulk of the funde for egrloulture Agrloul turul credit from pribllo or co-operativo organistion is probably the largest source of domestic capital, and an analnis of tho recont supply of such funds in 34 countriou doning 1051 and 1862 in given in Annox Tablo IL Tho barycot amount of loun, of the ordor of $3 000 million in both years wus inued in the United State. In France and Japan mch Lomne crocoded 31 000 million, whilo in many other countrio total loans were al subotential The data do not hoveyor Corral Loan to 4 in the countries mate sources, for example not covered by the tablo are morchants in Agricultural requisten and spo olally In low developed countries primato money lenden The growing nood to dovolop their agriculture has led many countries in recent youn to expand their system of agricultural credit This has boan dono in three main may by setting up speciel institutions where these rere poorlowly aching 50 ·TARLX 40 OUTATANDIKO IXATITUTIONAL LORICUL TURAL CREDITAT EX IDJ IN RELATION TO AARIOUL TURAL ARPA AND ARRICULUL POIULATIOY AYOOTT COURT $100 Italy Amare lower per Arerar en la Canne minek n Above Japan Between $ 80 and $100 $ 60 and $ 80 $ 40 ar S 80 Thelgium $70 and 40 France UHA I'mimpines, Yerland $ 10 and $ 20 Brun $5 and $ 10 Tagoulavi Ceylon, Al peria, Egynt Turisty $ 1 and 8 6 lalega Southern Rho. de SITA, India Blexico percont and in lorze) truro percent In othor countries in the Near Enst and in Latin Amerim the contubation of coporatives negligible In India and Pakistan ther word the largest single pourro of institutional credit though tho Actual funds prorded werd very small Specializod banks and other institutions pluy to important part in financing long term agrictltural prolcots in most countries of Europe and North America, and abo in bomo leto developerl coon tries to most under developed countries homotor sach institutlana hans still to lo established. Spocialized institution have been wot up in recent years in 'Vertom Europe in Latin America and la tho Fer Best. An Interesting dovelopmont in the Nour East I tho propoul now onder consider stion to stablah . common bank for all Anb countries which would inter la nako Lornu to agricultural of industrial crodit institution. Four of adding to inflationary prowuran and limitod apital ronource: havo underlined the neod to make tho most national wo of agricultural crorit This has been fought by diroct govern ment control of major loans and inrootmonts in ugrioulture by centralized administration through the central banks or other official 4goncica u in Australis und India and by adjustment of Intorst rates us in the Unitod Kingdom To a portain ortent control is ororcloed also through the traper vlolan of credite granted og in the United Statet and somo Latin American countries Arren homenatonin me kot templatina Aboro 3800 Tew Zealaod Betem $400 and $800 8 eden, Intel 8300 and $400 UBA Chile $900 and $300 Finland, Tommy $100 and $200 $ 80 and $100 Belgtum, France Italy $ 20 and $ 30 Austria West Clermeny Cypru S 16 and $ 28 Brul Japan $and 18 kuponlarle, Philippunen, Hosco Algeria $ 1 and 38 Ceylon, Ily, Egypt Turkey Ler than $ 1 India THE DEMAND OUTLOOK York It bedbe borde ha baise that are the table to credit rrunted by the alpattutione bene Iwan De Compepin, coperthe tous Nde not comer Adruce by Derebants drilen, pert TOOT-hepden, et The litt couTuy en Important role particolarts in tb loote uderdeel ped urdu. Agricultural land cut an und (locadas reborde on). Derbit pecun Aroon muutos et Te data f the Latt T Tatable Unimprurdu un dro KTUPO bra tontert a to and eqoiralrat by oupa conremos tantot analyt e tepth Lotto tutapdine at 11:31 Ested toerutront dtrerti trpendant au ture r10 rear that emerel Hat in De mercial bando ere pot, hoveror an important Our of credit for mall or Abelstence farmers and plas a minor part în countries where testenco farming predominate, Co-operatire socletles cater for the neerle of hoth large and recall farmers. They are the main direet pourco of utitutions! short term credit in number of countries specialr in Europe They contributed, for crample $5 percent of the Joan outstanding at the end of 1954 in Austris, 4 percent lo Broden, 30 percent in Finland 30 percent sa Belglurs and 31 percent in Germany Thes were also rers Important in Japan with catrihation of perrent in Torte sth 45 The future lovel of world economio activity and hence the lovel of demand for Agricultural produots will be influenced largely by the altuation in North America If the forcaton there were Intensiled and protracted its effect would be bound to spread to an increasing degree to other countrieu. The ultation in North Ameria la thoroforo dlocum ed below in some detail As pointed out earlier moet major permomio Indiators baro boon doolining in the United States although the fall slowed down in the first quarter of 1884 and the trattable data for Blny od curly JADO muggested some slight Improvement But there are still woune adreso ogni particularly in the continuing reduced rate of now orders for manufactures, especially of machine toob, in the expected declipe of expenditures for now plant and equipment and in the indications that the reduction of Inrentorice is not ret at an end. On the other hand tho general climate it still rather optimistic 51 ·Oatleys for now construction aro rlong and the trond rooms leely to continue while the romant Ablo riso in Industrial baro poloes in tho spring of 1951 though largely dao to lower tard on pra fita lo roflootod the confidence of lavestors many of thom cautions Institutional Investon. Although fodenl budget cuponditures are to bo rodaood tho doolino in the net couh balanco will be vory Small Tho slow rise in lood gorom ment spending is likely to continue. Moroovor If the fall in inventories tapent off grow privato investment should not be very different from the 1953/T4 love] Au no further major changer soom Ikely in other components of the groun national prolgot the lovel of United States ooo nomlo activity in 1954/55 will dopond largely on contumor expendituret. Thus variations in con sumer owpondituros which in rooent your hero acoountod for over 60 porcent of tho gre national produot uro likely to determine whother the lovel of ooonomio activities will go ap or down. Tho doalino in potronal income due to higher unomployment wortor worldng weela and falling fari income in 1963/64 is being partly afiret by roductions in Inoomo tasol Actual consumption oxpenditure and theroforo Iikely to fall lows than might have been ospected from the doolino of Industrial production and reduced government expenditures, and may bo enouraged by lower oxcito tare On tho other bend murvey rug goat that purchase of bourer utomobiles and othor durablo goods will be lower in 1954 than in 10.13 Govermont action may also infonco economio dovelopments Somo Lotton bu in fact already boon takon og by the Federal Rererro Bank by purchares of governmont sourition dealgned to ospend tho bonoy ropply and by two roductions in recorro requirements and by reduction in diroount rutos. Congreu, la addition to tax adjust monts, has provided additional funds in 1054 for roerl contruction and publio balding. There meurtres ar vidoly credited with restraining the defletionary movemonts of the last nine montbe But thoy hayo not prevented tho gradual declino and in order to revont this trond much stronger moutures may be nooded. Although the prevent Unltod States administration 4 gufried by • phil osophy of the least possible interference with the markot mechanism It has stated that “it wil not hesitate to make greater the of monetary debt management and coorlit policy including liberalized use of Federal Inuunnce of privato obligations, or to modify tho tur atructuro or to redoce tare or to expand on a largo calo the construction of weful public worla, or to tako any other tope that may be noortry " How over the effectivenen of any such measures may dopand largely on how quickly tho nooetary begle lativo and administrative action an bo takon. On tho wholo It woms likely that unlem rob. stantial no Dourro ero adopted by the govern mont United States boinca activity and hanoo tho level of demand in 1054 may everage at or . Httle bolor the loval of tho first quarter of the your In that 006 the domestio demand for consumer goods would probably bo rory little balos ita prescat lovol thou providing market for about tho amo volumo of farm prodaots at somewhat roduced prices. The foreign demand for Unito Statos products, which hu whown . down murd trand rinco mid 1853 may bo stabilized at or «Ughtly below the lovel of curly 1054 Thus the main agricultural problems of 1004/05 .ro likely to bo doo to excomnivo rapplico nathor then ahrinking demand. Lo 1955/60 there may bo romo further modif aation of United States government polichow to rostoro the growth of coonomio activity and to load to fullor employment. Bat apart from . dow Incrons in military expenditure, the nato of recovory rooms unlikely to reatoro the national produot fully to tho per capat loval of 1053/04 International prices of farm producto havo u yot (with the arception of cereals) boon little af fectod by North Amartcan marplurou, being partly inmulated by the United States farm prico fup port reogram. The lovel of that price support for tho 1054 crop ho boon rooontly rodaood for como commodities, howorot und may bo lor ared furthor Borooror the docidon of tho Unltod Stata Commodity Credit Corporation to roll abroad at world market price moans that for pomo commodities United States prico sopports Fill no longor bolp to Loop up tho lovel of intor national pricom. In Canada 1954/08 is officially orpootod to bo time of sorer ospanion but not of recoulon This new le partly based on a continuing high in vogtmont nato ar on slightly higher govomment oponditurou. The government is therefore bud geting for only limited ter concedor and for pomo cusing of crodit to primo the economy Dir floulties are likely to contino, io foring orpart markote not only for roultural products bat also for Anlehed minulpoturo which aro mooting locroaung competitioo from the Volted Atata Onome Report of the Presiden U R Covom ment Printing Oploo Washington, 1964 p. 113. 52 ·and Western Europe However eten if the official view prores somowhat too optimistlo no decline in the domestio demand for gricultanl prod ucts la likely Thoro ero no signo at present of any change in tho generally favorable coonomio dovolopment of Vostorn Europe and anothor prosperous year lo likely If thero lo to sharpening of the recogion in North America. This is tho general tenor of all respondblo crocomio forectuts. Thu tho Unid Kingdom Ecomonto Survey of 1031 erpoots that pernonl consumption will at least remain at its prevent lovol, that oxports will not be wromly reduced and that prolaction will coatinue to rise. It is ho that intemel usings will increate roticontly not only to prorido the recommary capi tal for domestio Investment but ato to mantindo fidancing economio dovelopment in the Common Walth In thoso circumstances tho demand for agricultural product. i likely to incru controla over food congumption and many romsining im poot restrictions baro been removed. Tho progress of conomio orpansion in Western Germany alao poems to bo umurod Whilo mal incomes of wge ournion are unlikely to increase u mach u in 1853 tho rising rolomo of omploy ment may loud to rluing domestio consumption and a strong demand is probablo for agricultural product. Tho Pronoh Covornmont has adopted an 18-month program of economio espanalon, devigned to Inorte national income industrial production, and tho total wago bil by ten percent If the program ruccooda thero should be a correr ponding riso la domaatio contumption and a metala ed demand for agricultural product. Thore were Home olgna in early 1051 that economio conditions in Franco had begun to improro. In the rest of Western Europe with the pooiblo exception of Spain, oconomic development Labo likely to improTo though not at a uniform pece In epito of the remarkablo improvement of Western Europos balance of payments parti cularly with the United States there is still worse danger of . recurrence of the dollar problem, us much of the improvement has been due to United Staten ald and on-thoro purchaket. The United States administration has requested only about $3.500 million for foreign operation in 1951/58 25 percent law than in 1990 and this redaced request may be boterelt trimmed by Congreu. JLoreover Europes where may bo lower But taking into socount apullocated foods and out standing contracto military aid and off thore purchases are likely to be twiet u lange in 1954/53 As In the previous yeur Two shorld maintain and might oron Incrcano the flow of aolen to Europo in comparison with 1053/84 Unlens Unit od Btator imports declino drastically tho dollar gap theroforo reems unlikely to reappear in 105-1/65 even though its underlying 808 may not bo permanontly removed and there should be no major rogoro rostrictions on trudo in agricultural prodacta. The slow improvement in Latin Amerian. economlo ritustion la likoly to continuo in 1054/05 though the outlook is moro uneven. Thus tho less feronabto terms of trado for countra osport ing, 6 grain, and the moro favorablo torms for thoro osporting, og, coffee are likely to persist Argentina is expected to show an apward turn in Industrial production, and orport didioultleu for grain may bo partly offeet by Improvod prospecto for wool and posibly meat Any improvement for these products would also benefit Uroguay The lower production of coffee in Brail may be partly compensated by higher prices and perhaps a larger volumo of other orports. Other coffee producen who have not raffored from front damago will benefit still moro from higher prices. If the procent uprwing in the demand for non ferTOTIS motel la rutalnod Chilo and Bolirla proront balenco of peymonte diffoultler will be much murod. Moxico is oxpecting higher lovel of agri cultural production in 1954 and an improved bol ance of payments but the offoots on demand are obecurod by tho poelblo price rimet due to tho rooont dovaluation Cabas total output is likely to be adversely affected by further of thelal restris tion of the suger crop No major change aro expected in tho othor rozrublia, though lessoning of inflationary prourire le powiblo In vlow of the low lovel of locomo and consumption in most Latin American countries any improvement in the economic struation should bo quiokly reflect od in increuod domestio demand 1 At the beginning of 1081/80 though Thor tions Administration (FOA) «hi had about « BOM) million from previo appropmation not out and it is expected that total sotoal expenditurto by FOA in 1051/05 will about equal than $5 000 mil lion disbaned in 1953/54 Europe « shart in the 1934/ 1038 request of Hightly over $200 million is about half of laut yeur. but in aldition to dollar stem ming from previous appropriation there will be a continuthod of militar, ont aboro purelusa in 10541 1935. la 1953 tho value of military good purchased abroad under "of-shore procurrment contracta amounted to $200 million. los contracte placed in that year wore of the value of about 500 million and total contracts outstanding $ 1 000 million. 3 ·The main factors determining economic dovelop. ment in Occunla are the prospects of grioaltural oxports in 1851/03 which are generaly favorable orcopt for wheat The outlook for rool is fotonblo and exports of meat and dairy products to tho Unitod Kingdom market no rocuro despite tho ending of long term contract. The condder sblo economio Improvement schiovod in 1953/61 and continuing largo development projecte ruggeet that there will bo no fall in the present high lovel of domestio demend. Yith a probablo inctouse in foreign domand for rabber juto and other for Eastern products tho terms of trade of tho nw material oxporting countries of the Far East may ahor some improto mont in 1951/65 The coming your my witne . growing conflict between urgent claims for onenomlo dovelopment and the prooring need for im provement of the current oxtremely low consumption lovel. Some countries are already committed to a polloy of social wolfers expenditures, which It would be difficult to ourtal. It would be idlo homotor to orpoot that osponditure on consumption and model wolfaro will cause the region's offootivo domestio or import demand for food and agricultural products to increano npidly Host govornuments aro taldog roulustlo viow of thelr resources and giving inertadng attention to planning ocomomio development on an integrated best. The Interest exproped by rotoral govern meats of tho roglon in ea lacrewing Bow of foreign Investment louds and grants is readily under stood in the context of tho extremo poverty of the peoples and almost univernal urge for economic Add ocul bottarmont mainly through wolf help. In the lar Fest no major changes aro osportod Lo coonomio conditions and fu the damo tio demand for agricultural products Countries without for olgn old or special source of foreign revenue of from ou fll continue to be hampered in their driro for economio development and for ning consumption lovels, With growing agricultural production, the problem of finding of port markets at romansnatiro pouces for Turtdoh and Syrian grain and perbapo for cotton from Egypt Syria and Turkou mer become moro scute and there is little likelibool that improved terms of trade will expand their purchasing power for imports. United States is alowly coming to an and, tho ontlook for 1854/00 in the more advanced regionu of the world North America Yoteon Europe and Oceania - likely to be ano of modest improvement. In that coro the total domand for agricultunl prodacts may be expeoted to show somo Increato Unlos special mentres are takon bo moter the incrous in demand is unlikely to affoot to any great oxtent the dating problem of agricultural surplaten In the logo dovolopod parts of the world where the Deed to increan comuption to of course grottest there are no indication of any coulder ablo orpansion of the affoctive demand for agricul tural products. In a fou countries with largo-culo dovelopment programs, governmental Mousers tend to limit any riad of demand rewalting from expanded ccocomio notivities. Yith a low loral of foreign investment and relatiroly mall domotio apital resources, tho major part of the cost of economio development ho to come from ourront output If inflation and forolgo orchango difficulties are to be arolded. A fow countdo aro wing deildt Ananaing on a limited scalo while others are trying to increase availablo fareatment funds through taxation and through encouraging and mobfituing domestlo mring. Under such cir cumstance any increase la per caput olloctivo demand will necesarily remain small Thus the gonoral outlook for total demand in 1854/80 1 ano of slow increas, though not enough to greatly affoct tho marplus problem. In conno quenco price of cordalo and other products in heary supply may be somon hat moekar in 1854/26 than they suro in 1953/04 Tole emphasizom the good for a molectivo rather than an overall aparation of agrioultural production, Looking forthet a bed, 1005/00 should con con tinnod world economlo programs with a correspon ding expansion in the demand for agricultural producte Torld rupplies of grain and most other foodstuff, will continue to be relettroly abundent and no rooovory In pricos rcom Ikoly Food importing countries should therefore con tinto to enjoy favorablo terms of trade and bal ances of paymente, orea though Unitod Stator economia all and militars payments may dealino Price of coffee and other bovorige weem likely to remain very remunerative For gricultural nw material present indication aro that tho collapo after the Korean boom has perd ita lowert point and that consumption and price are yain tending upwards. This tendency should be reinforced if the United State bas recovered from the slight recension of 1953/04 cod onlargas Sunmary The effects on the rent of the Torld of coatinoa tion and deepening of the United States recension rould by rrot inleed If bюгетеr цот remy more probable the down-twing in the 54

·ito imports of rar material and finished products
and If Earopean countries contindo a high lovel
of inlustrial production Blerkot prospects for
raw material osporto mainly in the len doteloped
replone thereforo rem likely to improve
Theme relatively farotable developments how
over might bo frustrated unlens there is an offeetire
realjustment of the expanded North American
agrioultural prodlaction to rerlaced international
secde and a gradual working down of accumulated
surplages without sotero pressure on world price
lorele. Proeent policice in lorth America uro
working toward there ends, though both and
particularly the second, il bo dlmcult of achiere
ment Ther would lo facilitated by economic
recovery in the United States leading to an ex
pendling domestio market
BU

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·Chapter III REGIONAL PROBLEMS AND POLICIES

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·Chapter III REGIONAL PROBLEMS AND POLICIES Tho prerior chupter revoked briefly tho main dorelopments in the world food and grioulturo situation in 1833/84 dictewed some recent trondo and reached tentativo conclusions on prospects for 1031/05 The chapter which follom cum ines the impart of tho dtuation now emerging on tho problomı of agriculture in each region of the world and the shifts in agrioultural policy which aro boing made in consequence In spite of largo differences in conditions and problem, * number of common trendi rem to be emerging in the ugri cultural policies of many though not all, coun tries in widely operated regions and somo com ment on these trends may bo toful before procood ing to a region by region dlounion Tho mixt striking is perhaps tho growing tend eney in many countries tomard uricultural self raffclency Formerly autarchio policies In urt culturo vero adopted mainly for the oconomio protection of fermen or for dofoneo reamon Both motives at operate but slace the war they bare becn powerfully reinforced by balanco-of pay ments dificulties, and aboo by tho increuring Intor eat of governments in fostering general economio dorolopraont. This often makes them rolactant to spend foreign exchango on agricultural imports In order to mrmlıo tho fundo atailable for the import of capital equipment. There renou motives are o strong that the etxergence of surplus stocks of some commodities in other region he saarely halted the trend to and greater welf-tuffielenos except pertupe in como parte of Western Europe. In the lendore! oped regions in particular there ar u yot for indications of any major change of direction in agricultural polley Agricultural derebpoent hus become an errential part of the otti-all economic planning of the countries. Their governments aro increuingly conclous of growing food requiro menta. Tatime and postmar shortages bare impressed on them the importance of enord fon! upplier and sometimes made tbem maistrat ful of too great dependence on importa They therefore ked no traron to change their production plere become of tompotury surpluses in other parts of tho orld. This attitudo an bo roadly under stood in cur where conditions of voll und allmato aro valtablo for the typo of production enviuged for goveramonte la leta dopoloped rogłona expoct steedy progress in tochnial mothode of grou) turo which will gradually wipe out any dised vantages in this roepoot which they may havo in relation to other countries. A point which should not bo ovodooked in this connection is that in a world where the freo play of sconomio force is ovdrywhero modified by government action, it is becoming more and moro dificult to judge where the balance of coonomlo adnantago her. Por examplo e country may bo a high-cost producer of any given commodity rel atire to world prices not becaur of any deficien olo in gricultural methods or in conditions of poil and climato but bomuro its currenoy lo ovor valded, or bocaune hlgh facentivo price fixed dur ing erllor periods haro Dot yet beon adjusted or bocauso competitiro exports are dircotly or Indi rootly buldózed. In thoso circumstance, . chango in govermont polloy 68 devaluation may within limita transform a high-cost prodacor Into low-cost producer overnight and vico veru. Price comparisoni at any one timo do not nocer mrily give a reliablo indication of compantivo anantago Again, even when the balanet of advantago la more clear-cut , country may be unablo to chango its production pattern for practicol ronsona. It may here to cont into high-cost prodaction of certala commodity bocinto thoro lo no suitablo alterutro tre for Its land. Por cramplo oven though conditions of woll, topography or climato may bo omaltable for cereal growing and botter Adapted for purtare and atti it will be impou. alle for a country to take up restock prodlac tton and import itu cerca If the population is too poor to provido e market for Ort and milk Conterrels « country muy bo naturally wlapted for cereal production, but be forced to specializa on livestock holandry boonuo the mall size of 09 ·Its farmı rules out any lets latensive form of ugri culturo. Or again, the uncertaintia of tho oxport market may swing a country towards the produo. tion of beslo foods rather than tho Industrial crops for export which it is inherently better able to produce or the need for a more balanood unti culturel rotation may load it to dovelop crop which in themselves would be unoconomic Enough hu loon vald to make it clear that far moro then simplo price or cost comparisons havo to bo takon into woooant whon deciding whether . oountry should attompt to booomne moro self muffident in any commodity and to bring out tho difficulties of changing procent prodaotion patterns. Yot when all this has boen allowed for there to main a good many cases whore the ortreme dis panty of prices or costs suggests that efforts to rach wolf-suficiency havo been promed boyond reasonablo limits and whoro . rappraiul of agricultural production policy rooms Oyordu. Un duly high-cost production of commodities for which 4 country is not woll adapted to bound to retard moro sound types of dovolopment and to depres Hring standards. A rooond fontoro which rooms to pour all ovor the world is tho relativo nogleot of the dore opmont of tho domestio pertot and the notitlane) noods of tho country's own population, both in general agricultunl planning and in the disposal of surplumea. When tho rapply of a commodity oxceeds current effootiro demand for example, there are broadly treo porable course of action to restrict production, to expand osports or to encourago homo consumption. The roader of tho raccooding rogional mootion vil find not a for are whero governmonts havo restricted productlon, many where they hard tried to capaod or port. but rather fow where any very substantial mensorea havo been takon to expand the domes tio marko Similarly whon importing countries haro Increased thoir domestic production the ton dency has often beon to restriot importa rather than to expand camption, og, in tho intor ent of apital accumulation for economio dore] opment But the fact romain that . majority of the world a people are still not adequately fod and that in Wome countrie under nourishment is o acuto that the mass of the population in lothar glo and inapallo of full days wort It le noted clue here in this report that oren in . region with high consumption lorels, mach w North American domestic wales are limited by lock of parchasing power in the lower income groupe. Io le developed regioru this applies to an oren greater 6tont Increased consumption of prod acts with a high outlety of demand at the per tlonlar economio loral of the country would thero foro result from higbor roal incomo (which most countries and striving to attain) or from lower rotall polcon. It may room pandouloul thereforo that with tho powibility of Incroarod ular on the domestic market so many countries are conoon trating their offorts on oxpanding axport ontlots, For there can be littlo doubt that in all cantico Incround tolonoy would meko powsible coonto mies both in tho production and marketing of agricultural products, which in turn would enablo rotall prices to be lowered. That Doro countries horo not msdo such attompts probably revolta Largely from tho adjustmonts of policy and como timos sloo from soolal conditions which may bo implied. Por exemplo many governments aro concorded to maintain and stabilito farm Incomes an onttro ly Inotlieblo rodjel objootivo Thoy hevo thero. foro a direct interest in maintaining farme price particularly whero thoy hero giron prioo support to farmers and . full in farm price « labło to Involro them in direct financial Ilabilities. For Imported commodities tho simpleat means of mala taining farm prices la to limit importa by tariff or quotes for commodities in which country is roughly polf sufficient the amplest oude la to osport any quantity which cannot bo mold at homo et current prico lovebo. loro and moro countries aro boginning to roll agricultural products abroad at low often with the aid of or port cubolillos In order to Umalt thoir financial liability on tho largor quantities sold on the domestio market. As noted earlíor bovovor tho coat of production roprocents only about half tho finel cort of food to the consumer the other half is made up of tho cost of processing transport storage and dir tribution A good part of tho lattor uro certainly Docomary and anarolda bio und tboro ero se wbero tomo Incrou os may bo urruntad in order to improve the quality of the final product. How evor distribution and procesing in Industrialized coantries haro tonded to become womotie over elaborato la tho course of yean and could often be nmplified, tho roducing rotull cost. In la doveloped countries tho syttom of distribution le simpler and loos wol organized but done tho lo expepaye. The distribution trade offer one of the few means of earning a uning open to peoplo witbout land or fobe and with only limited ro. boards. Thl apples particularly to food dbtH bution, for which little initialapital L pocoonry 00 ·Thore ero undoubtodly good reasons for the emergence of tho polloy tronds which hero boeli melectal for comment but thoy do not run oully together Although in each country the any for Inetrukod self-tufiolonoy may be strong It Alk hudly with tho parallel trend to expand oprits if both aro continued tho result an only be con dict and frustration. In the amo way the continu ing emphasis in many conutile on Increasing production cannot cerily be reconclled with the comparativo negloot of measures to develop the domestic market and to ensure a paralel increase in consumption In many countries the time seoma npe for general reappraial of food and agricultural policy ruch reappraiale would be more offective if they were mado with an ade quato knowledgo of the programs of other coun trle oo that gorommonta mould bo in a position to co-ordinato their polideo a far u poolblo with tboto of thoir neighbon The forthcoming PAO rogional consultations and the roulons of the Committee on Commodity Problems, Connal and Conferenco afford opportunities for an exchange of vions with this ond in mind. In consequence the porcentage of the non farm population engaged in detribution li high but the burimet are cottcaporulingls mall with . low tumorer and they can marviro only in charg Ing high morgins Loutr costs roukl be possible only by reducing the niunler of business and niing the arerago turnorer But this naixes to cial probloma and might mean that the govern ment had to provide fobe or unemployment relief for the displaced trader. Thus in both econom laulle well doneloper and less doveloped coun then the problem of ro lacing food dienbutton costbriathos th dificulties. In addition tho lowering of abolition of indirect tarn where lor! ed on retall food purchases and the reduction of high price charged by pronto and public food import monopolies, provide in some countries other means of reducing the cost of foort to the con sumer The importance of lower rotail prices if food congumption is to koop pace with the moro rapld Increase in production is bocoming increuingly recognized, though wo fur tho tendency has been to relato this primarily with tho need to reduce food production costs. There is no doubt that such roduction are poolblo by improved mothols of farmmg and tbet in thls way form Incomes could be maintained or improved aldo by ndo with . fall in furm price. But it is no lont certain tlint thero lo alio mop for improved methodo of marketing and lower distribution costs and in #pite of the difficulties it appears that the problems of reducing retail prices ahoak be tackled from this end u well Thore Are Indication og in countries a widely sopanted u the United King dom and Argentina, of increuaing Interest of producen organizations in co-operativo marideting and it may bo that it is through tho dovelopment of producot and consumen cooperativen that kome solution of the problem will come But there aro o fer fow lovlications of rapid progren. An important point to be borno in mind is that in general production costs can be loreted malustantially only by increased prodactivity un komt meures un pomible to reduce the cost of inpet factor But incroved productivity waly implia inecased production wwthis may agyra vate the samplus problem, u to emphasized by re cent experience in countries where farm prices and especially retail prices tend to lo rigld This Janger an be reduced If moro flexible price neem can be developed and if rotail prices ro pond more quickly to a decline in lar prices then they trually bere in the last tro reun WESTERN EUROPE 1 Changing Conditions in 1963/64 Agricultural production In Wouter Europe u . vbolo in 1953/01 was greater than in any pre you your and ouslly surposed the previous rooord of 1052/03 both in orops hervoted and livestock production Tho Inaroored production of sugar bread ynine and cours grina (27 per cent 10 percont and 16 percent respeotively greater than in 1952/63) wus spocially improwito and materially changed the supply situation in a number of countries Although fovomblo woathor has played an important part tho anually rapid rato at which crop and livestock ylokda havo doon in recent yoan is ovldenco also of a vigorous applicatlon in many countries of improved me thods of farming and moro otident managemen The godenl economio background in Westem Europo hu already been dloobused. The Incroured farm output coincided with and contibutod to . roriral of geen activity and thereforo bet 1 Austria, Belgiun, Denmark, Finland Franco Corman Federal Republe, Greeco Iceland Iroland, Italy Lurembourg Tothorlande, onny Portal dpain, Swalen, Britzerland United Kingdom, Tu goalarla 01 ·with strong depend. It amo about . timo when tho balance of paymenta problem ww greatly cused # that restrictions on Imports from outaldo tho urou could be rolased, and when groatly incrous. od supplier of agricultural products particularly grains, vor aviablo on tho world markota. AN these factors greatly influenced tho supply and trado mituation in the region. More than half of Westom Europe gricultora) importo aro mado up of tortlio Alben rubber olluceds and othor tropical products. The effect of change in domostio production is therefore concentrated on the romaining part mainly ooreele, sugar livestock products and fruits and vegotablom. Europoun production of all the lattor commodities incroured in 1063/34 and in con quonco imports from other areas were often roduced whilo Europoan countries with marginal osport murplures could generaly dispowo of them only at price wall below those paid to their own farmers. Broad grain importa into Western Germany Italy and Grooco for examplo wero reduced whllo in Franco and Boden exportablo oaspłuson totaling more than ano million tons becamo evall .blo. Italy and 8wodon withdrow from the Inter national What Agrooment the fint bocano Its dofiat had bocomo low than ito Import quota under tho Agrooment the second boatso it had ourod to boa not importar and had wheat to oxport. Both France and woden, Anding that thoir domatio whoat polcom were well above tho world market prioo had to dispose of thoir surplures et considerably below cost. Some food import. ing countries however including Denmerk and the Notharlando took advantage of the largot supply and lower prices of course gruins and Increanod thotr importa oren though their own production ww wo orpanding Even boforo the proceeding of the rooord 1053 harroat bogan, oxports of roger from France Denmark, Belgium and Spain reto competing in . falling market which vu fooling the proward of abundant supplies. The average 1953 world price was lower than in any your since 1944 While Cuben sogar mu delivered to French ports for Frin. 30 per kg the Fronch factory price u Fr fn. 72.20 In 1063 Danmark or portod only 30 percent of the quantity osported in 1852, and Belglan exports were restricted by the quota Ased ander the International Sugar Agreement For commoditler normally traded between European countries of restock prodaets and certain frafts and vegetables come importing countries began to rodaco the quantities importod, und tho countries with otport surpluwe had to And markets clowhere. A number of buttar Importing countries redaced their foreign pur chamos considerably 4 domotio production increurod. On the other hand, tho Valtod Kingdom bought Larger quantities of botter in preparatlan for the abolition of natloning, and Dew oatlots wore found in Eastern Europe. Thus the 1.8.8.R boamo tho wocond largest importer of battor talng 30 percent of Dutch exports in 1883 Tho trade atuation thus changed differently for the various countries, dopending on whother thoy woro Importen, oIportors or roll-mofilimt for partiouler commoditie. In the main, it could be mld thet agricultonl production and trude dorobopod retdactorily consumption lovela Tero maintained or Incrowned and the goneral loval of Intra-European trudo ru nired. In partiouler thoro wu • markod incrono in the volume of such trade in fruit and vegetablou. Wharo di cultier Voto osperienced thoy occurred mainly in countries with suddenly increased export forplans and with no long established channel of trado. The traditional oxpartort of Uvestock products particularly Danmark and tho Notbor lande, are officiant low-cout producers who can bold thoir own so long as competing osport: from othor countries aro not hoavlly mabaldbed on . Lerge lalo Probably their chlof cuum for con corn ww the rapidly increasing output of pigmeat and egg within the main importing countries the Unitod Kingdam and tortorn Germany and guddon routrictions on importa romotimo. Impowod by Importing countries lahing to protoot thotr internal price lorol. But when for remplo innoo Switzerland Norway Antria and Bol gium rishod to find a markot for cortan marginal and perhaps temporary forplus of somo lhrestock products they had to export at a subaldized price The Reorientation of Policies Tho alteration in the trading relationship of some countries for major food producta lrought about by increuod produotion and in somo ce resulting in merginel whilfto fram. deildt to. garplus pogltion, hu rovired foen of supply oatronning demand. There is growing conicom unong Western European farmon that any Additional prodoction may find , markot only at greatly roduced rotall pulcea, with a consequent drastio declino in forza Income The key problems are thoroforo felt to bo the stimulation of con 02 ·Gumen food exponditure and the reduction of production and marketing coutu. To a cortain extent foor consumption habiti can be changed by guremmontal meanire, ruch u tho prorlalon of free of mubalized milk to Kchoolchildren, but it is the lorel of real Incomes of the wholo population which will largely determino faturo food conueamption lorele. An annuul ox pamion of national Incomo at an average rato of three to firo porcent roems the most that can reasonably bo erpooted in most countries. Bince I given rico in income is invariably gocompanied by ı much smaller Hiro in food orpondituro especially at the lovel of income ruling in north western Europe the annual rato of incrous in food expendituro is unlikoly u ralo to oicood two percent though there may bo oIcept toru in individual countries where the national income may advance particularly nupldly or where incomes are so low that there is still • high sbaticity of demand. Against this must be not the current rate of espandon In agricultural production. Even mak ing full allowance for the favorable veuther of the last tro crop year it wema certain that the annual rato of Incrono appreciably oncedo two percent and is likely to continue to do to Agri culturo i. showing the cumulativo offects of the efforts mado in rocent year to modernizo equip ment and methods of production and of tho en.cour agament given to farmon by high and often guarantood pricou Better poloction of seeds and broode of livestock is giving higher yiolde, ferti liters and pesticides are boing uned in increasing quentities, draft unmak are being displaced by tnotors with corequent aving of land for food production the general standards of form management and technical bowledgo aro belng raired. All these factors are continuing to operato in favor of higher production Under preward of lover priced and often rubai dized importe, governments are beginning to count tho cout of this expansion and to consider bor much longer they can word to protect domestic producen on the present scale This basic problem prevents itself in urlety of ran in different countries so that the response is far from uniform, though op to now no country has indlosted any intention to abandon all protectiro meurtres and pries guanntet. In the Stundination contries food consumption levels are already high and 10 test expansion of domestio demand can be foreseen Breden bon policy in recent yun has been to alio at proriding 10-100 percent of itu food roqurements has not more than attained this objectivo and in 1053 had export murplures amounting to one quarter of its production of bread grains and butter and ono tenth of its pro duction of egg. Prices of thero products herr been reduced in 1953/54 and tho govommodt offers the farmers no prico guarantee for that pert of production which to in order of requirements for tho homo merlot. It is rocognized that somo of the lene quitable farms havo to rodoco or giro dp production of those commodities and come marginal land will be turned over to forostry Danmark in the most important European oportor of agriculturul producte In 1003 nearly 70 percent of all Danlah oxports Fero of agricultunl origin and tho wholo ferming Industry to poured to this end Producon organtuations aro watchful of production trends in the countries to which thoy export and, wbillo maldng otory effort to mainteln thoir long-establiabod load based on nationalintion of methods and uniform high quality of product will bo propared for a systematio contraction of output if marketu shrink. This nocenity is already rocognized for sugar tho production of which is to be restricted to homo roquirements. In the Notherland. food confumption loveb on the evorago omowhat lower than in Bwedon and Denmerk Reul wages are tonding to rive and agriculturo may find moro domestlo outlots for Ito produce. But in the long ran tho Notherlands faces similar problems to those of Denmark. The promuro of producor In Wortern Germany for higher tariff on oggy to proteot their own increasing production is a warning of tho pomiblo contraction of a mantot which in 1053 took about 85 percent of Dutch egy exports Similarly the Dutch trado in aldm milk powder 1o threatened by oxpanding production in other countria ruch u Bolgium Finland and countries ootddo Europe. Some of this skim milk powder ha had to be sold at greatly reduced polcon for animal feeding stuff. Ireleed wother food-orporting country ham almod to redaco ito dopendence on imported feed mupplies. The res under tho plough to being increased, more wheat and nugar beet uro being GIOTT, and the quality of the pastures is being Improved. Yuch 1-draled or derelict and lo aboo being reclaimed. The orport tndo las been assisted by the rapid development of various food processing Industries. The United Kingdom and Testem Germany hare special problems urlong from thelr dopend 63 ·OT enco food Imports. Consumption lorele improving in 1953 more rapidly than in other parts of northwestern Europe may yet riso approclably ospedally if Inorcu in national inoomo aro roceived mainly by the lower incomo group. This may reduce the marketing problems of homo producent, but the question of cost is .] important. If food becomes dourer labor oosts in industry Inarouse and this happens the export trade in menofactured goodThe dati geru of ruchu dovelopment havo beon partly conocolod In tho pent year by an improvement in the torms of trade but this position may be only temporary In any case these countries will wish to buy food in the cheapest markot and aro urging thoir own farmon to bocome moro com potitivo In tho United Kingdom, tho lovel of guaranteed minimum prices has beon fixed on the exsumption that increasing officiency will partit steady roduo tions in government rubeldien Tho price roductions of Fobruary 1904 ure not drastlo bat ero or posted to bo followed by farther reduotions year by your unlous couts Inorouso rabstantially Pig pricou were cut by fivo porcont and milk by three percent. A demand for an increase in agricultura] wagen wu rojacted in Juno 1034 for the first time in many your Toutor Gormamy hus innounced that its policy is to mako homo prodocory fully competitivo in common European market within ten years Prco lorok, insofar u they can be influenced by the government are srpootod to be established on the beats of corts of production on well managed farm, and not on thome of farms which are defoc tivo in structure or managemont duotion will probably continuo to expand but Western Germany is being promood by dobtor count-les to accopt more agricultonl imports in return for its manufacturer Belgium and Switzerland still rely to a consider ablo ortent on food imports but the margio are narrowing for number of commodities In Belgrom a lower price for sager boot is orpooted to result in a reduction in the actergo plantel In Switzerland where meat and milk production haro dovelopod to tho point where export outlet wero sought at muadixed prices « special ter her boen imposed on imported feeding stails to dincourago further expansion of Urcotock output The reduction of botter imports hus mount the low of revenue from • lots which had been arod to koep down the retail pace «f domestic dairy produce and coniequently the producen price of mik has been slighth reducer In Fronice there is room for a rip In food con sumption levels which are at prevent kept doon by the high costs of production on many farms An Inoresso in agricultural exports is an important part of the program to improve the balance of payments and at tho samo timo 4r7oulture] imports are to bo roduced. Efforts and to bo made to incrour production on farms in backard roglons with inadequate equipment and frafltier Tomporary measures of government estatance uro onriesgod but the ultimato aim is to rodaco costs of production u i wound basis for nahing the standard of living of the prodacons. Tho chronio rurplus of wino lo to bo roduced by the elimination of low quality vines and the con vor son of hoger boot apples and wino Into alcohol under heavy government boddy is also to bo rostrlotod. Reductions in the guarantood prices for whoat and milk aro ander oondderntion In modterranean countries the main omphasis has to bo placed on measure to rule the prodaotivity of tho woului an esential stop to sconomio progtoeh To sustain a growing orban population, the agricultural community must in caso ito marketablo surplus of cereals and livestock prod uota In relation to northwostern Europe food consumption lovelo aro low yet in thon southern countries the nto of incream in produotlon generally low An exception is northern Italy whom agriculture has many foatures in common with that of north restern Europe Marketing problems may tako on moro Importanco Blodi tortinoan countries face locroeung competition in the export of fruits rogotables and wine frym North Afnca and Innol and of tobacco and attu fruits from North America Broditerranoen producan hare also to competo with the horticultural pociallots oltasted near tho largo atles of the Importing countna, Spain hu staffored a shortage af whout and will andotvor to reduce the area dovoted to vines and mugur best and to grow more cereal , Home pro- Prospects and Long-term Problems Ono problem will override all other in the coming your the increase of consumption. All meuures to expand production or change ito pattern must be relatod to this ond Efforta nude within agriculturo itself aan at best prorido only . partial solution to the problem Along with inoretked officiency on the farm must go whole series of meuin elmed at ning the purchadng power of final consumen the promotion of indor triel set sity and full employment the improve- 64 ·ment of the economic poaltion of the lowest poid members of the commonltr tho reduction of fiscal charges on bacio fool commodities in creused eficlenoy of marketing the propision of specially natatire food, at reduced prices to schoolchildren and other needs groups and stollar schemer Production at lower unit costo le becoming the mort durablo and effective means of protection farmers can elm at If unit conta can only be reduced by oxpanding production as to often the came then the reduction has to be all the greater in order to market the larger rapply In countries whoro mrplases are appearing the most welcome technical improvements will be those which reduce the cost of producing the present rolamo of output Unfortanately farm structure is far from Btia factory in many countries boldingi frequently being too amall to prorido full employment for the occupants. Tho mobility of agricultural Labor lo Hmited, and rince most farm Labor in Tostorn Europo condots of owners of mall farms and their families it is not always the lack of non farm employment which cauri ruch immobility Farm ownen may not want to give up low incorno farma boonuse thoy profer their indopendent my of hfe or annot sell their land at « romunerativo pelos or boonus of their greater security in com parison with landlen yago tarners in times of unemployment or inflation. Thus agriculture bus romained over tocked with labor in many coun tries and the lovel of farm incomo lo accordingly doprtaed. Only in Breden hato comderablo efforts botni mado to reduco gradually tho number of marginal producen resulting in an annual dimppearance of nearly 6000 mell high.net anita, Tho final goal in Sweden is to establish anito not oma ket than 30 hsctere. The need to be tho arorago sito of farme hus aboo been aromod by other governments, but has not yet becomo practial policy In a number of other com ther whoro the amo need exists the problom bas received littlo consideration, elther because of the lack of alternatire employment or beats the polley io to maintain the agricultural population at a lorel considered desinbloom grounds other than cuonomple Past experience has shown that changes in fum nracture conn abont only Tety Boxir upowing of general economic activity may here little effect on the maldistribotion of Labor doce It tends to take inar from agricoltare needed hired labor on Larger farmi natber than attracting tbe redundant farmers who operate small bigb coat farmi unit. An additional defoct of farm atmoturo impodling tho Increux in labor productivity is fragmentation In spite of governmental effort in all countries progreu in consolidation has beon blor orrn where the need for it greet u in Italy Austria Western Germany Bölglum Franco und Switzerland whoro 30 to 80 porcont of tho total agricultural Area La In need of consolidation. For the time being lower conto per unit prodlac ed my thereforo continue to depend primarily on higher yolda Great progress has already been mrdo in this direction but in all countries there orlat regions which havo not got fully shared in tho Improvement It seems important from now on to con contnto allorts upon thero regions and to work out alotanco programs adapted to their noods such u advisory work, credit for the pur oboro of oqulqmsnt grants for the introduction of improved mot hode. Programs on theso lines iro already being developed particularly in France Belgium United Kingdom and Testorn Germany Instead of trying to procuro e uniform lorol of producent prices which will emuto certain minimum standard of Living oven to the least efficient farmer moro must be dono to see that tho avallablo resources and their way Into the hands of those farmers who aun ako tkom most offectively This confronta goremments and furto ort organization with different and moro diffioult problema than in recent years when thero Wat . moro indiscriminato emphasis on higher total production. But in tho long run tho goneral pacoperity of agriculture will depend on their volation. Apart from roducing costs of prolaction, an expansion in demand can also bo meblered by delivering better quhty product for the samo price and by redacing the margin of cost Letween the farm gate and the consumer In a number of cores marketing problems and requests for gorernment rapport animo not be cause there is a lack of demand for certain prod acts bat beat he consumeri ero saking for. better or different quality than tho ono tudi tionally offered. There may be a low demand for poor quality fruits but quick maler for tho better qualities. Tho price of fat plot may fall but lean port u in demand The larger part of the marginal rurpluks of livestock products and fralta could bo marketed in tho countries where thog trive without consumption per head lecom ing excenie This abeorption depends not only on price/income relations wat also on new waji and means of processing and darbution in particular for fuld milk and fruits It for Ered an 05 ·the farmers themselves to take action to bring about the nocetury roorganlation and adep. tation Among the reason for the wide margin be troen producent and consumont prices are the Irrational organiation of distribution the reusana! wration in rapplies (eg moet and milk) and the inficient attention paid to the requirements of the market. In como tho Franch and Gorman milling Industries tho apudty of procenuing plants not in keeping with tho requlrod ralumo of suppllom. Oboolete or rodun dant plant is kopt in uso at the orponse of the consumor or through processing subaldies, of the tappa In Austris, tho orcm capacity of dalies and routing hetry Overhead posts is one of the rounds proventing the price of dairy products from falling fiorently to dupono of tho present marginal surplus of milk. On tho other hand loadequacy of storago faclities in Bordo caren provents the froning out of wookonal fluctuations in rapply or the curry-over from year to your of relatively mad murpluses whono relous on to the markot has disproportionately depreos. ing affoot on prool and undermines stability Such . atuation could wally be remedied without henry orpondituro. The wldo pulco fluctuations which are typial of the market for many agricultural products are doplorod on all ddow but Uttlo affootive action can bo takon without a thorough knowledgo of the In reality there is not ane merlot but many spread out along the chain from producer to consumo Very Little lo know about tbo rolatlonuhlp of supplies and prices at the various stagere, but it is alour that if some of the fred chargou much as tern and transport charges which wo impowed could bo roducod tho porton received by farmors rould show lou varution At tho same time when a real roduction takes place in ferro pricou and costs of production, It will not benefit other the prodacor or the consumer wou a substantial part of tho bapaft Ands its way to tho consumer In lowor retail prices. Histor leally rotall prict huvo ganonally been elow to follow doraed movemont in farm perico hindorlog the expansion of commumption which to exrantial to tho prosperity of vriculture The forogoing romart Indicato that pornothing moro for reaching and at tho samo timo lou oder ow than a simple system of guaranteed price lo roquired Agricultanal polidow hard to be coordinated with more comprehenddro police for economlo orpenslan and for the reform of the 6000omlo struoturo of the various countries tho policy for igniculturo itralf noods to bo meloc tive and dynamic with constant attention to the necde of tho market and . duciminating we of financial and technical alttance in regions which poed it most That international co-operation fallo short of what is roquired it oquely ovident The growing tondanoy for countries to provido export oubaidles in order to diaperto of their strplumen will Inovitably provoko now protective measures to counter them Progress along the unes described aboro will in any can be slow but more effectivo intonational co-operation could grontly uwolot the procem of TALE 21 15 TRY EUROn: ProDoorT0M or RELZOTED CODIODIDOS COYODIT 1931 33 untur IHIN ennur 141/33 The la 19 254 (8 913) 18 880) 41 (0 320) (6 400) 30 CLS Brend grim Frunce CETTADE (Wertem) Courte grabag Gugar Otru fruta apples D Olivo al Tobecro Borſ and seal Homet Lutton and lamb ER 015 15 725 (8 457) (8 385) 31 010 4 870 1 801 8 18 12 050 004 3210 (8 PO3 16 410 13 OTT 8 403 * UI 11 281 12 910 610 120 3 457 4 194 001 3 00 3012 7 41 14 0.90 78 188 1 640 4004 7 1 039 90 20 1891 D 200 18 100 9.3.5 075 3 I 576 I 001 74 316 49.13 00 018 Inter of all for products 110 JOJ parko a ou 60 ·TA NATELY EUROTE: From AYD Lront. Or SEOTCD CoxorodITIE COCHODITT 1911 20 Art 1911-30 Tere 1151 190 Te intre in 1 18 745 (3:03) 84 (0) Gross Erports Citrus fruto. Spain. Rabins and current, Grero Wine Oure oil Bacon, ham uod malted pork Denmark Butter Den Setberlands Checne Egg in the abell Denmark \etherlands 1 181 (810) 118 (104) 601 110 205 (18) 71 (149) (10) 141 10 I 400 (1 050) IC (100) 201 0 207 00 101 (89) 193 (11 94 (87) 101 01 TRO (178) IO (117 100 215 200 (09 (80 210 (157) 130 149 (7) (00 II 801 (6 691) 8 400 120 3 000 1 600 (1 231) OSO 337 238 14 0 (4 094) 4 ILD 357 3 137 Grow Imports Wheat and wheat flour United Kingdom Late Rico (mited) Vegetablo otheeedda and olla Wino France Coffee Cocos. Teu Tobacco Cotton Juto Wool (oken basis) Rubber 13 880 1 656) 3 9.30 23 1 613 1 0.50 (1 176) 23 12 610 (4 701) 4 100 218 2010 (1 072) 158 DO 218 1 304 1 72 080 501 313 1 31 411 420 007 380 33 I 420 28 488 813 15 1937 territory I porn paret the t motors t the Tederal Republike Trude free prewer tor Cernant refert Drin tralt ruraleol Arun to n. Wheet cauruleat. O radulent. at nuk adjustment to the changing circumstances, lor can this International co-operation be confined to European countries alone. The surplures existing In other parts of the world and the measures taken for their orderly disposal will, without anr question hare # profound influence on the situation of European agriculture EASTERN EUROPE AND THE U.S.S.R decided to alloate more resources to consumer goods Industries and particularly to agriculture Hltberto primary attention had been giren to the development of Industry with emphasis on heart industry In consequence industrial prodaction targets were generally reached, though the growth us often aneren between busic and manufacturing industries and between different brancba of the samo industry The npld Increix in eroployment oatside agriculture however brought about a marted increure in the demand for foodstaffs und abo for agricultunl nav material which has not been met Oficial statements etophasize that there were e number of reusons for the flure of agricultore to repond to the increasing demand none of bich can be rightly considered in isolatlan from the othen The year 1953 brought about i marted change in the cronomie policies of Eastern European countries and the USSR Al there countries · Balguna, Czechoslorike, Fastem (termans Humgary Poland Romania 67 ·(1) Inficient supply of renowo to agroculto Efforts were made to equip worloulture with modom machinery but rate and collectivo farms benefited far more than Individual farmon ho still constituto the majonty croept in the USSR und Bulgaria. The situation wu dmilar for fortilbrors inpooticides, etc. which wuro produced la inartanod quantitia (orcopt phosphatio feliz ets for which thoro mus & shortage of raw mate Hals) but word not always medo evallable to tho prodacen who could to thom most officiently Tho higher yields which aro oloimod for tho stato and collective forms thus appear to havo boan duo at least in part to tho advantages which these ontorplaer havo onjoyed (11) The method of operating the system of compulsory deliveries By Donalring tho producors who remained out aldo tho colloctivo forme particularly those with tho largest holding tho rystem did not oncourage any inordoro in production. The low prices fixod for compulsory deliverior and the size of the quotes Impoood rostrotod farmers couh roodipta. Moreover tho incontivo to produce wu weakened by the lack of consumor goods on which farmers could spend additional ournings from Inoroured Lolo of dovolopmont In Poland and Crochownika the transfor of Labor from ugrioulture is other to bo brought to a halt or to be allowod only la. linitod measure for particully important ron vrloultural occupations The furthor ortension of co-operativo farming and the integration of rottared plots of individual farms is envisaged in all countries, but there he inorowed rocognition of the fact that too rapid . pece of cllootivation of agriculturo would be dem ging to production. Poukota wl bo oncour god to join tho lower types of co-operatives la wbich they remain individual owner of their land and their product. There types of coopontirou do not moot with redutance on part of the permante Moreover all governmente hero dooided to help indopondent fermers by providing ruutantial invootment crodite rapplying the mount of prodaotion, radacing the compulsory delivery quota and wooldng to improto tho prions of vrloultural u Against manufactured producta. Special ad vantagou are granted for produotion of industrial crops and for animal breeding, and all countries alm at increasing their output of Il nostock prod Dota. In tho U.8.8.R. mach attention is being con Contratod on Livostock Total number of arttho and shoop word omaller in 1863 then in 1948 and pig numbers word only three poroent greator The insufliclont output of livortock products hus boon largely due to the lack of fodder and to a ter system which discouraged Investment in podratoly cultivated plote and ovon Induced farm en to give up thoir printo livestock. This tas system is to be changod and a dlroot incentivo to tho ro-establishment of privato cow ownership ha boon introduced. In addition tho rorlaton of the tax and the prloo ryttoms io Intanded to Incrou oyar ell farm income. Intensivo mostret are being takon to Inorouso grain production, mainly by winging wder cul tiration 14 million hectares of now land (Including I million bootares of follow) beforo the end of 100 with the belp of an umy of young men quippod with the Docomary machinery I nuo comful tho new land might produco op to 10-20 million tons of Additional cercul 1 Efforts to (111) The too rapid extensor of the system of collective fanning Outsido tho 0.8.8.R whore the process of colloctivization Fu already comploto many colloo tiro farms woro ostablishod without proper socount boing taken of the olomonts necessary for their mucceful functioning moh u managerial ability an adequato supply of trained tochnicuns and recoptive attitodo on the part of the rorants towards the new methods of production In there circumstances it tu clear that If. npid improromant in the situation wu to bo obtained moro onçonnagement would have to be given to the independent producers That is 49 ctential fouturo of the new policion now being followed Policy Changes In order to improve agricultural production, all Euter European countries hare introduced a namber of meurre dealing with many aspects It is not clear shathor the origma 1906 tergot uodor the outent ilvo-year plan of at least 178 mlijlon tom of ocroato ha dor born abandono. Hinco It would imply an inartoro of about 35 poroont over the 1963 production of about 130 million ton It oould not in any are bo achfoved. Font orotary of the OP Committee, Kruchey in hi apcoch of Fobruary 08 ·Ako boing made to increase olen to the gorem ment over and above the compulsory lellreries, In Eastern European countries the docted Cures are denigned to bring about in 1954/05 Increase in total agricultural production ranging from fro to ten percent ahovo that nobloved in 10:13 a comparatirely poor year for agriculturo Such an Increu would help to diminish the import of food and feeding stuffs into Czochoslo rakia and Eastern Germany and to do away with the unusual import of grain into Poland which hu been of the order of one million tons . year in 10.33 und 10B 1. Changes in Consumption art rade In 1053 the U.S.B.R bogen e policy of supplying consumer with more goods including imported foodstuffs. According to figures published in October 1053 males of meat should incroeso in 1031 to 2.2 million tons compared with 1.2 in 1050 and males of wholo milk products to 2.3 million ton u compared with 11 million. Cattlo numbers fell from 48.8 million in 1952 to 88.6 million in 2053 and domestio production could hardly supply moh an increur in consumption within one year o copt by increanod olaughtering, with further ret uction In nombor which would bo Inconsistent with the long term polloy In the spring of 1953 after rotail prices were greatly reduced certaln orta food supplier came from stocha. In addition, rapplies are being sopplemented by Imports. Particular attention : being paid to frult importa, which ontll recently had not bocn considered important enough to merit foreign exchange and during 1834 kome 100 000 tons of durum whoat will bo orchanged against Italian citrus fruits abondo eto. In 1053/54 the quantity of butter imported from the Tetherlande Denmark, Norway Finland, Sweden, Argentina Australia and New Zealand amounted to "0 000 tons of hich 40 000 tona nume from Western European countries. The US.BR has become the recond largest importer of batter though part of the quantity received hur apparently been re-exported to Eastern Germany In addi tion, siger has been bought from Cube and the United Kingdom and bacon meat and lani from Denmark Franco the Nethorlands South Africa And Uruguay Altogether according to a stato mont by the blinlotry of Trulo imports of food in 1984 and to amount to fotir thousand million roubles (one thousand million dolen) Thoro ero thus amell prospects for any consider ablo Increase in the procent lovel of orports of foodstuffs and feed from Eastern Europe and tho U.S.B. The bulls of tho oports avallabte from the southeastern countries of the region will be absorbed by Czechoslovakia Easter Germany and perbape Poland Tho now importance giron to the production of coreak in tho U.B.8 R. Lo ousy to understand bearing in mind not only the incremko in internal requiremonts (about three million moro inhabitants auch year and . rime in Incomce por houd) but ako the fact that oron if the planı of the other countries of tho rogion are fully achloved by 1050/58 this would only restore per caput rapphes to their prowar love] In 1063 moro than two and a half million tons of coroals had to bo imported by Euter Gormany Poland and Crochoslovakda, and most of the probably como from the U-8.8.R. which exported 37 million tons of grain In 1053/01 of which only 11 million tons wont to Western Europo No doubt tho Eastern European coun tres given a favon blo harvest could export a certain amount of grain in orchango for other products but such orporta reem unlikely greatly to orcoed hell a million tont. The participation of Poland Crochoslovakia Hungary and the U.8 8.R in tho International Sagar Agreement roggests that prospects for rogur erporto may bo more favorablo although the U.S.8.R. itself is stili . not importor Apart from certain exports of eggs from Poland (18 to 20 tboumnd ton year) and small quantities of a number of other products (tobacco ollacedo certain textiles malt bopo certain llrestock To ucte, etc.) tho prospects for crports of agricul tural prodaco appear to bo very limited On the other band some export of petrolewn products, of raw materials for industry and eten of manufactur ed products and equipment may be porollile in the future if the goods offered in erchango aro acceptable It is impoe! We to estimate how far Eastom European countries will go in prorking now outlets for the agricultural products of Western Europe and other regions but if the Intention is to increa consumer ropplin the rolume of much tnde at least for a time might become important 1954 launching the cereal program, poke of an increas of 33 percent not in productios, bet ir rere and wate purehave Thieh seount for perlur one third to one-ball of the grow otput Thais a mucli lovor target stuch might be achiet odif fam malo uro incround and the bulk of tbe umorne arts of new land succefals brought into cultivation in the turon allowed. 69 ·Forut Products An increased output of wood palp and paper ako planned. Yood pulp production fell frato 1 10 million tons in 1938 to about ono quartor million tons at the ond of the wet and only rogain od Its probar level in 1050 with an output of 16 million ton Production racbod 2.1 milion ton in 10K bat novortbolon substantial importa were required NowTprint dovelopment has been still fastor by 1048 the production of 272 thou and tom wu 20 percent grouter than in 1938, while in 1963 it rote to 480 thogand tom. Simi larly the output of other paper and bourd reachod 1,940 thoonnd tany in 1950 and 1 050 thomand tons in 2003 (noerly twice tho 1938 prodaotion) Eron so imports of paper and bourd into the USSR showed a noticeablo Inoreko in 2003/04 AID NORTH AMERICA Housing 's still one of the major problems of the U.S.S.R und now housing and the fumitur to go with it togothor with the very rapid Indus trial or permion, will probably aboorb tho balk of any Increase in own wood production for , long porlod to come Boature of these boery roquire monts Imports chiefly from Finland are likely to oontmto at about their procent lovel and ero understood to be contial for the still continuing robolding of the Loningrad district harlly deficit in uw wood. No great riso in osports of Awn wood from tho 0.8.8.R. to Wootom Europo and other rogłons would thoroforo bo erpootod despite the conulder ablo mousuro of racoons achlorod in expending W wood production. On tho other hand if East West trudo continue to dovelop there to nomo poolbility of tho U.B.B.R. stopping op Its exports of aw wood to pay for Industrial oquip ment and food and other consumer goods which are badly noodod More detailed information has rocantly become available about the forest resources of the U.E.S.R. and the program of its forest industries. The country pocketo momo 425 million hectares of mcccolblo forato or about one fourth of tho total world area and nearly ono third of the wron in The growing stock of forests in this porno 33 000 million oum of which 30 000 million on.m. aro conifor, maro than half the world total of conifor forests. Despite the onormous tenou on the produotion of industrial wound wood has boen little groter than the European production and only two-thirds of the output in North Amer ten though fuel wood production is the highest in the world. Present plans are to Incrturo the production of industrial rood by 66 porcont (somo 30 million c.m.) oror tho 1850 lovel by 1965 and it is understood that fair progress has been made tboogb dovelopments are not fully up to rhodole Most of tho iacou od prodaction is intended for wn wood of which the U.8.6 R. Wu the world second largest producor with an output of 49.5 million cu... In 1950 It is planned to raise this total to about 77 million cum by 1055 but in 1812 only 85 percent of the scheduled progress had been completed and it uncertain if the 2011 wh bo reached. The expansion bu had to be extended into remote region bero ur mill ing expect is low and has to be Incroured about clghtfold UiO. Anothor neur record output in 1953/04 moconta stod the problom of urloultural sorpuso in the Unitod States and to a lower extent in Canada The domotio domand for foodstuffs romainod high in spito of the lower lovel of economio notivity though the consumption of cotton declinod Lloreover the fall in agricultural osports wu hatod and in the fint oight months of 1853/54 thoy woro low than one poroant below tho umo period of 1952/53 The sharp riso in stocks of Agricultural producte u only explainod to . limitod ortont by tho rodacod export demand. Thus from tho and of March 1053 to the ond of Harah 1954 CCO stoob roro by ovor $3 000 million, while ricultural exports in the 14.20 porlod were about $800 million lowor than . your carlier Alt boagh bomo of the footar wblob havo rodaced United States agricultural os porta affoot abo Canada, Canadian osports bave declined only alightly from the high 100$ lovel oxcopt for what which in the first roten months of 1003/04 nu about no-quartor ler than in the amo months of 1933/03 Although the statistical position suggests that tho surplus problem is partoon in both North Amor lan countrion polloy dorobopments hero boon Fory different The United States administri tion to reviewing ite entire agricultural pollov in order to rodaco accumulated stocb in an orderly fashion and to adjust faturo output to tho kely demand In Canade on the other hand it is felt that the situation does not pot Futunt portal meuurce, It to pointed out that the excoption ally high yields of the last three crop year an not coatinge indefinitely that Canada mey to 70 ·Konably expect to maintain her shore of the im ports of her traditional cutomer In particular the United Kingdom and thet domestio pet corat food consumption, which began to increase in 1052 may rlso still further Surplus Disposal Special action for tho diporel of agriculton] surplaves held by tho United States Government has so far been mainly directed towards inuling now foreign oatlets. A variety of leglalatire protiatons operato to Wed this end Section 650 of the Jural Security 40 (as amended in 1953) requires that not lem than $100 million and not more than $250 million of funds natborized for foroign economic and in 1853/01 should be tuned for sale of United Stata agricultural murpluser to friendly foreign nations agaimat local outonoles Up to the end of Blay 1034 ruch sales amounted to more than $220 million. Sedion 4 h of the CCC Charter Ad per mits certain burter transactions. In 1063/64 there amounted to about $38 million, principally in graine, moro than threo times the amount thus mored in 1852/83 Under Sechon (5 n of tho hume act $20 million worth of whert u vold to Spain, the money equivalent to be med for off shore procurement. Under Section 42 of the Agri cultural Adjument Act of 1935 whloh also cover domestio disposal program export payments aro made for certain fresh, processed and dried fruits and honey Lou than $12 million were dbaburned under this provision in 1052/53 Scior u16 of the agricultural Ad of 1919 permits the donation to noody persons of government rocb which are in danger of spolla go practically all of these gifta at an annual rato of about $70 million in 1004 ure directed abrond. The Famine Relief Ad (P L 216 already expired) provided op to $100 million worth of surplu stock to alleviato serious food abortagem abroad but less than $10 million baro boca utilized (wheat to Bolivie Jordan and Libya) The renewal of the authority and restoration of the onginal amount is now being sought in Congress Under special keglahtion over 600 000 tons of wheat (about $70 million vorth) Kete giren to Pakistan in 1053'5t to rellere famine condition there Under other special foreign relief programa About $14 million worth of food rus distnbutert to Individual in East Berlin and Eastern Germant and another $12 million worth us Christmu gifts to needy families in 20 countries in Europe Latin Ametia and the Near East Among the domestlo outlets for rarplures tho donation of foodstuffs by the Federal Government to tho National School Lunch Program to privato rellano agencies and for other ptrt potes amounted in 1053/81 to an annual rate of about $200 million tro-thirds of which rere for school lanches. Di roct domestio commercial sales of surplos stocks haro remained relatively low it about $50 mil lion . year in 1053/54 Altogether in 1953/64 disposal programi vero moving agricultural prod ucto back into conmption at an annual rate of $800 million, of which about $250 milion appear to here been for domestio consumption. Government holdings of surplus agricultural products at the ond of Aaroh 1054 honorer amounted to over $6,200 million (Tzblo 9) and were still increasing and attempts are therefore boing made to accolento their dispoul. In his menge to Congress on his not farm program President Elenhowor proposed "to not uklo reserved up to the valuo of $2,500 million from the stocks presently held by the CCO" to bo "ured in contractiro 2. Buch we will inclado school lunch programe duster relief old to the people of othor countries, and stock pilod roucrvet er homo for oro in war or national emergency Tho order of magnitudo of zid to people of other countries Thich noem to cover what now Season 550 is indicated in . bill which would limit tho President authority under thta aid program to friendly countries to a total of $1 000 million during the next threo yean Le in average of $330 million a your In addition, it is proposed to set uldo $100 million worth of surplus com modities for help to goromments regarllew of their friendlinon torud tho United Statet und to authorize tho e of further $300 million worth for gifts in famino and other relief substance Tho CCC rovering its provious policy has start ed to sell many commodities abrord at world mar kot prices, which are far below United States sopport prices. The commoditles include butter and other dairy products wheat coarns grain lime baan cottonwood and Drucod 01. Stocks of dried milk hare been almost fully disposed of to domestic animal feed producers at • Aominal charge. No other major changes in marketing policles for goromment-Omed nuplurcs are plan ned for 1951/53. Testimony of John H Deyn Ambtant Beertuan of Agricult giren before the House Committee on Agriculture : April 1954 71 ·two percent and eight porcent ropeotirely in Amo two year. The lower fam prices an t baro hed uttlo ofoot in orpanding contempt Cotton consumption in North America, whic! 1093/84 doolinod by 800 000 baler or about 1 percent from the provioqı year would also pv ably benefit from lower prices to the con un Over tho first four months of 10084 prions for apparol had declined by leo then porcent compared - th . your earlier der Lowor wholeulo priood for toxtıken. consta Adjustment of Output Apart from a reported plan to try out on a wmplo buio e port of Food Stamp Plan, tho dovelopment of the school lanoh program already montlaned and the reduotion of the opport price for dairy products little romu to have boon doo to fer in the United States to incrosso domotio consumption of food la creea nupply Novor thelor thoro appear to be a considorable onestis fod demand for food among the lorer Income groupe. According to one stody', compartoon of the 1950-82 por ceput consomption of the 26 percent of the labor force coming hood than $2,000 . your with antimates of potentlal consumption show that por apat consumption of og dalry produots could bo increaaed by 24 percont that of four and cereale by 22 percont and that of muger and grup by 23 porcent Similarly in . rocant household rorrog in Seattle Weahing ton, not one of the least prosperous parts of the country It was found that wzty percent of the lowout inomo group danrod additional food ex penditures while only 24 percent of the highest inoomne group desired moro Practically all the additional money donlod for food products wu to bo spent on threo general groups of com modities inclading day prodaote, fruits and vege tables poultry and rod morta. On the whole It appean that in opſto of the high average level of food confumption in North Amer ion there would be . conaldorable roupono in the volume of males if tho rotall cost could bo to daced by lower production and marketing costa. For womo commodities og butter tho effoot of lower rotall prices on cutrent surpluses might be diroct whio for other commoditien, 28 food grains, the effort would be indlroct. As noted in Chapter I however while farm ploco foll by 17 porcent in U.B.A. and 23 percent in Canad. dur Ing 10J2 und 1053 mod were followed closely by wholomalo priors retall food price fel by only As supplies of certain farm prodacta ere in con of the antletpetod demand and romerto qulrament the rootrictiona proworlbod by tho Uni State Agrioultural Adjustment Aot bocomo of attro. For tho 1054 wheat harvost the crop a new limited to 62 million acros against 70 milk in 1053 und sotual plantings were indicated mid Marsh at only two percent above this Hmi Supplies will no bo limited through markoti quote scopted in a roferandum of wheat grohe A smllar limitation on mairo planting of 17 P cent (about 10 million acros) in commercial me produdng arou appears however to have be ineffootirou tho indicated acrogo is only 300 C acres lous than in 1963 Presumably mondo co mordul grosors have not complied with t restrictions and an approciablo urna may he been added in non commercial Arou. Aloroor an additional 13 million acros is reported und other courro grains particularly outs and barte so that thoro may bo. much increased output 1954 of courro gnina u bolo. Some of t] land taken out of other crop hun aloo been diverti to soya beans where tho acreago la reported bo twolne porcent greator then in 1063 Alarko ing quota were co establihed for cotton In 10: (11.8 million balos from 91 4 million ucret again 18.3 million balet from 20.2 million acter in 100 and sarengo rastriotion and Alotments were nga applied to tobacco Still moto wetoro restriction are propouod fi 1950 The wheat arouge li to be reduced by further treiro percent to the minimum of 65 m lion acrot permitted under present legimbatia IT plan u practiced in the thities and cry in the war onnetted of digribution of food samp to brpelcranes of publio or printo relief antitling them to recono certun foodstuffs gnt s equal in quant is to thox tley bought under render oon ditinm o rtal torer *ILC Drax do tmalyns of Certain Estimate of Fool Hewire ond Demos Agr Economie Ro Kurch, Vol III To Haslington Jan 1931 Potential consumption is a theoretroalime poppored to indketo per aput consumption in the by potletlul cum that mnrimptop of belor 53000 Anal income familie mult be nurod to tbo con muption lovel of cam lies wth an arenr anmel income of mor than $200 1 F L BALM AND I L (LODBIDUE IS Journal of Fan Economi. Fuh 1934 p. 115 Fomen are allowed to plant whout above the Allotment provided the old from mich are acrtao N Dot deated for human conturation bu us to bo bod for posture hay ulago or for plought under to improroll; proridon hat am born mac to increase the ullotment of durun wheat 72 ·milk, egg, hogs and honoy Tho Board mil openter on its initial allocation of $200 million in 1040 of which up to 31 Blarch 1963 about (312.4 million had been used for prico rapport operations The New Agricultural Policy of the United Stata In addition “TURA-complianco It being mado a condition for prico supporto fermen most re main within their attrago allotments for all the crope they grow If the intend to apply for price rapport on any ono Further farmer bo bsro to dirett more than ten acree from any controlled stop will baro to comply with acreage allotments for all crop on their holding oncept hay and puture Both measures are designed to eroid whifting the surplus problem from odo crop to another Altogether the new restrictions and orpooted to tako slout ten million acres oat of crop production. For some commodities existing United Stata logislation provides for como Boxibility in support prices, and mpport prices of milk for manufso turo and of butter pero accordingly reduced from 00 to 75 percent of perity in 1953/54 with the hope of Increuing domestio consumption and checking any further incruto In CCU stocb of butter cheese and dried skim mil. Present agricultural leglalation in Canada does not provide for direct government intervention to adjust output. The Canadian Wheat Board i virtually the role handler of oxport whert und abo Largely controls the marketing of onts and berley Tho Bourd make an initial advanco payment to producers the Anul roturno being determined at the end of the crop your by tho rocoipts from domostic and export mieu Tho Boerd might thuis try to infiponce production by lowering the initial payment. For tho coming crop year 1001/88 an Announcemont of tho initial peymont is being deforrod until neuror tho ond of tho curront crop your According to spring roporto however Canadian farmers planned to wow Dearly one million lo len to wheat than in 1053/01 this being • roduction of four percent. Some rodactlomu uro 26 indlated for ryo and potatoes but the ferred acreage is expected to be doubled. For agricultunal products other than wheat an Agricultural Phot Support Board lt authorized to buy at priecs catablished by the Board in order to maintain genenl market prices aboro a giren "oor" or alternatively to pay directly to pro duce the difference between the Board . nd the Arenge market price in giren period. Among the prolacto handled long the Board are appler beef cattle brottet cheere dried beans dry skim Bocutio of difficulties in Linglog agricultural production and roqulremonts closer together while maintaining a reasonable stablllty of farm Incomes and avoiding sharp fluctuations in output and prices the United States administration has proporod now for loglalation. The President . farm mestege to Congress states that dnce the restrictions on outpat already proposed may not appreciably reduce surplore Locatie of expected higher yields on tho reduced screegen, ohrinking foreign markets, and the planting of alternativo стор, “we must moro without further delay to treat the fundamental and of oor prouent oxcere rapply Tho program omphasizes that by using landa of the agrioultural conservation program, divorted setage should be utilized for soil Consorvatlan. Tho most important new features of tho pro porod program ero a flox[blo rather than a Higid prico support, tho goneral application of a dow parity forcoala the freezing of a part of the mo cumulatod oxcou reserves tho fostering of ox porte, und an incrouto in tho borrowing authority of the CCO from $8 78 to $8.5 milion Only the latter feature has so far boon implomonted Under the proporod program price of badlo crop would continue to be supportod provided farman cumply with acroege restrictions and markoting quotes when mach aro in effect lovebs would be announced boforo tho planting Koukon and . 90 percent colling for such rapporto is proposed but also a floor ranging from 76 to 00 percent according to tho supply situation. Sup port levels would be adjusted up or down by ono percent for each two percent of variation in total rapply of the commodity In question (orcept for matto here the natio il 1) Legislation pued in 1918 included . Dow parity formula bured on prico/cort rolation over the last ten yun but the application of this feature to the buic crop has been repeatedly postponed For beat mabze cotton, and peanuts it la nou proposed that the per loro shoukl Locopo effco tire from 1 January IDJO Lut with the proviso that the chango lo medo in annual Instalmente Prico rapport To be effective on all fart, It keen that the U.S. Adonist nation would alvo laid to proclaim sreage allotrgents for almost non basic unicoditia to which etag med to be diretted from Laslo mope 73 ·TAIL, 13. NORTH AMERICA PRODDOT10T O ROND COLODITIO Coocmort 1934-36 ATIN 11130 Tento 1031/03 103/ (pool) \Vhout Malze Rico Beef and youl Pigment. Butter Egin ALLE Boybeans Groundnat Cottonised Tobuooo Cotton (Int) Index of all farm producte. 133 800 18 600 0.0% 3 000 3 610 1114 1 103 b3 346 1 170 840 090 88 01 1 780 8 289 816 830 3 481 BO 783 6 013 0-13 O 01 54 074 B3 901 3 189 8 291 8 740 700 3 74 20 8 424 47 173 81 182 I 183 6 000 5002 890 3 789 0 873 7 200 714 8 616 в СОН 1 080 618 3 768 1 BOS 3 801 100 148 147 103741 The Art production for the then 1051 36 wu abnormally low owing to the floote of the extreme dronchita of 1934 und 11 rithe United States, production on tarme only of five poroant. For wheat thu would mean stretch Ing tho change over threo year. The major commodities affected by theko propos od ohangou are whout malzo cotton and wool. For wool it is proposed that prices abould be left to find tholr own lovol, and inatoad of prloo supjorta diroot payments should bo mado to growth to raisothole avengo returns to 90 percent of per ity 8uoh payments would be uniform to rotard offidont production and markoting. Outlook No markod chango in the high lovel of Unltod Stato domestio demand for farm products or in the rodgoed current lovol of wricultural esports rooms Ukels in 1964/65 Equally bowover supphou of most fun prodoots and expootod to romain Largo and no martod improvement in the nurplus situation woems probablo The increased borto ing power of the Commodity Crodit Corporation should rulice to carry on prico sopport operations at lout through 1951/55 and while prezent prico mupport programa continuo farm prices may de clino rolatirely slowly Farm production costs show little change hovoror and the coct/price queeze in United States agriculture is likely to contince though perhaps to . voroshet ro daced oitent. As noted in Chapter II, not farm Income aro oxpected to be about fire porcent lower in 1054 then in 1963 Tho more stringent acreage restrictions in 1853 uro Ukoly to redaco United Stater crop production comiderably and the otpooted Increure la lito stock prodaction due to larger feed supplies is expected to reduce livestock prices. Perm in comes in 1950 may thoroforo docitno approciably Canada is starting the 1984/05 wuron with an uaprooodented carry-ovor of wheat and the im proving supply pooltion in other roglon i. Ikaly to creato additional export difficulties. There is o an unusually houvy arty-over of courro graine and tho larger supplies in the United States and Argentina Ill Inorouho competition in export markota Domotio consumption, particularly of livestock products however is likely to remain high Canadian farmers cuah rooipts in 1864/ may be comowhat lowor than in 1953/54 and this is likely to be reflected in net incomon Noco no doclino in production oxpenditures lo or peoted. Tho reductions which havo already taken placo in farm Inoomot in North America havo had ropercuotons on the general doonomlo otuation. Whilo production of machinery u. wholo in Crowed in the Unitod 8tata in 1063 "In . fow machinery lines such w farm tractors oper ations Foro at rodaced rates during a largo part of the your Similarly in construction setiv ities “farmeri eo tho only important group sponding less than your artior In Canada alo “thoro to moro farm equipment in the hands of dealers and manufacturers than . year 4go. Tho posible effect of fur thor rodnotions in farm Income therefore andot bo ignored 1 1 U Department of Commerce Surry of Cutou Burmen Pobrary 1904 PT 16 and 19 Yoon DIY Mestootlog Borrico Dopt of Agricul ture Ottan: Our Reolew of Agri utwal Cond tion in Canada, Yol 18 No 1 Jan 1954 p. 18. 74 ·TAHIZ 2L TORTA AYINIOA : FORTI AWD Lromu OT BEZOTED COSCHODITI2 CUYODITT 1101 ETIL DILLO att 1151 31 70 10 981 1 180 469 16 600 3 TO TUD 793 Cross Erports Wbaut und went four Lair Rico Lent EEST Mal (condensed and onporated) Cbecne Bottor Vepotable calls Tobooco Cotton (unt) 10 2 60 1 100 21 107 1 051 249 014 1 43 6 BUS 1 401 6 0:57 Grous Imporis Bano De Bopar Cocon. Cadre Tom Tool Juto Index of <U for productos Gros Esports Grow Import 1 157 4913 201 901 80 08 7+ 1 457 6 572 184 1 200 00 IO 76 1 200 17. 1 310 08 120 78 100 176 201 109 100 111 Inoka bort det Imohdos o monyt add cottaa Ia ter of nw mor - Noble De and ruralents to Iported betons. For North Americ ua bolo tbe 1931/3.5 mm son is unlikely to no any robotuntial improve ment in Itu major agricultural problem of orice mupplier. Unlou tho series of good harrestu of the last yeun lusharply interrupted both countries are faced with tho need to tako effectivo nenures to bring supplies and requirements more closely into line by or pending marketa, especially domes tio markets, and by curtalling the output of prad ucts for which to increased market an be fore nen. LATIN ANTERICA Year Agricultan Program. Mexico has tran formed it. Two Your Emergency Food Program Into permanent feature of the administration. Uruguay 1 giving the final touched to . Lirestock Development Plan Boull la estirely using the nor Foreign Exchango Law for the protection and 61c0urzgement of agriculture Progress is retarded however by rocent dotel opments fo the world maskot Pnces for a gum ber of products exported by Latin Ameria baro fallen during tho part two year and production of some of thom he tended to docino Rocont decreases in regional production of cottan, oll moede ind hard fiber and the fortber rettriction in Cuban mogu production largely reflect this stue tion levertheless, in pomo instance Latin Amerian countries aro Anding nor markets for their products eg recent purchase by the USSR hero allowed Argentina to dispose of u rubstantial part of her accumulated stock of Linked On the other hand the outpot of grains bus con tinced to expand in every country port prices at Incentive levels are being maintain During 103381 moet Latin American countries haro been erining to increze ugricultural prodoc thon, which in previous years had been lagging behind Industrial development To achieve this objective governments hare either continued to nam opt or bere under actire coralderation protum und meuures aimed at piring greater in centives to fartplof Argentina fot erupte hes continued to push formand its Second Fire leur Plan Chile is starting a romprehemalte Eight Oniolal sap- 75 .

·od. In defidt countries, the orpandod produc tlon has boen eanly aboorbed by the local mar kot and Uruguay which hade record wheat crop during the last season, has been ablo to roll ita oxportable marplay to Broul and Paraguay In Argentins however whore grain exports in 1053 wore considerably larger than in 1952, . rather sablo stock remunod umsold at the be ginning of the now reason, which, addod to tho good crops of 1953/61 put exportable suppllow at significantly higher lovels than in reoent reen. To cover the disposal of largor supplies of gralne Argentina has been very activo sinco 1853 in ronow ing and concluding bi lateral trade and peyments agrooments with a number of countries and st tho wmo timo in developing an intensive pro gram for enlarging storage and murehousing faolli tia Whother tho volume of grain osports can bo oxpanded in the yeu Immediately aboud still remains to bo reen, but the goneral feoling in Ar gontine is that the rurplus element in procent stock may bo considered fairly small although wheat or porta to Bud here slowed down and are at a lower price than before and oxports to Bolivia hevo not beon pooblo on account of United States abipments of 100 000 metrio tons to that country It Is oonddored that no advan tego would bo roapod from rovlsing downwards tbo targets not in the Fire You Plan DIost rignificant for many Latin American coun trios daring the last your has been the rise in coffeo polece. This rico to largely dao to the sovero damago crund by froet on tho Brazilian coffee plantation in 1953. In the State of Pennd alono but for the front production would have reached about 77 million bags during tho 1954/55 colico crop menson, where it is now unllkoly to or cood 1.8 malllion. Coffco production in Brazil will only bo ablo to rocotor slowly from ruoh. sotback. with the drire to improve land the ind to modem iso ugriculture is based mainly on foreign ox chango coruiderations Most Latin American countries aro reluctant to use thoir foreign ex chango camnings for the importation of food and otbor encultural prodacts unler. It is impossible to produco thom locally It is well known that in Latin Ameria tropds in Investment and closely linkod to tho balance of paymonta altuation and levels of foreign reserve, lergoly because of tho regson. dopendance on foreign countries for the mupply of capital goods. If osports cannot be orpanded, thereforo imports of aspital goods both for agricultural and Indon trial parponor can only to maintained or expand od if there is a reduction of ourront nate of im porta for consumption and larger inflow of foreign investment A roduction of importa for concamption lo por blo in certain counter and be already been attained in some by . reloctivo control of Importe. But in general e out in Imports of consumer goods Is difficult unlea tho domentio production of rach goods can bo ospanded rapidly The u tho pol foy that govommonts are in fact pursuing In the field of agrioulture the orpension bs to be achloved both by oxtonding tho orod under oultivation and by improving farming omotancy It lo impreudva for instance to recall that the number of tractors In tho arou he increused about di time since 1030 The greatest powibibtiet of npld agricultural expenmon in the deficit countries however aro to be found in the owo of whost and other gain, mgar and cotton tho producto nov in rurplus rupply in the world market. The problem for thoro countries to thorofore whether to produce these commodities (oven at the risk of developing A high-cost production) in order to uro foreign oxchange or to import them at a lower Immo diato cost but at the price of limiting the coon try'. porabilities for sconomio orpenalan. On the eldo of the orporting countries, tho prob. lom of continuod agrloultoral o pandhom i stil more dificult if they have to faco stiff compotition in the world market. Typical curs aro tho production of suger in Cube and the grain and olla seds crop in Argentina. Developmont of griculturo In there and othor countries in a similar position will certainly Le retarded us lang a current world conditions persist. For other products such a coffee ca and boof prospects for larger esports are moro favor ablo But an increased prodoction of these com modities by the nature of things can bo obtained Basic Policy Problems Astrilung fcaturo of current Agricultural poli cies in almost every country in Latin Ameria is the strong drive toward national welf-sufficiency Specific instances of this trend may be found in tho recent esta Wishment of the sugar boot industry in Ohilo although the sogar output has been fur ther curtailed in Cole and in the heat am paigh actively conducted for inutaneo in Bred Peru Colomble and orico in spite of the stock of wheat accumulating in Argentina and in whout exporting countries in other region. This policy of self-suficiency worinted in rerenl instances 70 ·only aloxls and the desclopment of the export trado u aloo limited by the rapidly growing domet tio demand Theto are thus major dificultier in the way of any short-term readjustment of ouiment proteo tiro agricultural policies although in the care of some crport stop toch readjustment may proto erential. In the long run, bokeTET TANT govern ments are likely to find it adrantageous to do Felop the production of the commodities for wbich their initul conditions are beat suited and to relar the strong current trend toward relf toff denoy at all costs A moto comprehensive intra regional and international co-ordination of agri culture would then be pouibke Beteral countries have taken step to attract . larger few of foreign Investment oither by allminat- Ing erlating obatacla (Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia) or by wettllog former debts with foreign holders (Ecuador Pera) in order to clear and im proto their extemal crodit conditions. It is to be noted however that foreign investmont in the region as a wholo reprezents only 1 mldor part of total investment particularly in the firld of agriculture comprehensive procedure of monetary donloatfon (Bolivia Chilo Joxico) By thoro menores or port proceedi in national cultencies were increu ed and high-cost esport products in danger of being priced out of the market continued to more abroad. In this is a stimulus for producing for orport ww meintained in spite of increasing competition from other producing arcan, Reduction in importa were more pronounced In the non-doller countrict of the region especially Brazil. In October 1053 . new exchango system adopted by the country established memiums for exports and an auction market for the malo of import permita. The new syutem in basically in tended to encourago agriculture Not only will agricoltunl erporto be rubidized by export pro miams but proceeds accumulating from the auc tion of availablo foreign exchange which already in the first sir months of operation of the new yttem amounted to 56 thousand million icelrom will be used for financing agricultural projects Among tho other non-dollar countries Calle wu affected by a drop in tho values of sports duo to declino in demand for Chilean copper The valuo of exports from Argentina advanced ngnif icantly because of much larger shipments of grains and wool than in recent yean. In dollar countria both exports and importu were lightly lau doring 1033 than in 1052. Tho declino in oxports occurred mainly in Wozlo Cube und Vonezuela because of rodacod oz porta of cotton, sugar and minerals. Exports increased particularly in Colombia on account of the much Larger volume and ruloo of coffco shipmenta. In most other countries in the region importa were made at similar or slightly Locreased rata com pared with the previous year During 1033 ve result of trado policies and Increased production, there was sharp rovernal in the past downward trend of both grou and not exports of agricultural products from the re gios The index in Table 25 comprising torenty two major uricultural products, Wurtnter this dovelopment. The larger proportional al la net exports than in grua exports reflects a declino in groue imports due to larger domestic prodaction u well u the control of importa in certain countncs TADLE 25. LATDX AMAICA VOLUME OT AORICUL TULL EIOITI Gru uporta esporto tiporta Dit rer- 1980 88 1931 8 1951 1953 (prol) 93 85 Grow riporta mbi po Inporte. Over all Trade and Payments Position Under the influence of changing national and international conditions the overall balance of trade and paymente in the region improved some what in 1933 Although there were some increue in total exports the improvement over the was mainly due to the sharp reductions in im portu Vessores contributing to improve the balance of payments aittution are the reduction or elimina tron of export IIIn the granting of preferential osport cxchange nates the conceation of special bsidies or esport premiosos, and finally the moro Domestic Demand and Prices Letla Ameria is a region where consumption, particularls of food v expanding rery rapidly The high rate of population grorth (24 percent per 77 ·annum) is primarlly responsible but the facteur in the purchulng power of the population also play . part. The factors and naturally adding to the dificultia that countries here to face in shaping thelr food and gricultural policies. An argent increas in production has to come prino pally in the way of enorgy producing foods which thu compete with other moro patritionally deals abla foods in the one of arzilable remorce. Tho strong ampaigns for increased wheat production lo serenl defidt countries where livestock develop mont lo lagging comidenbly behind population growth may bo oxplained by this quick orpendon of contamer demand. Tho napld expension in consumption also ox plains why the current picturo in Latin America L ano of rocurrent food maratlaa uod inflation rather than ono of surplus production and stablo prloes. In many instances transportation und marketing desconder contribute to mako tho opply problemu moro scute A typical examplo of the problems Latin Amer loan countries aro currently facing le gren by Modeo. This country's economy husboon orpand ing rapidly during the last for your but wo has Its population and consumer domand. In order to check inflation luut your the government adopt. od nadons restrictivo moures such as signif feant out in the rate of publio lareatment and tight restriction of bank credit for commercial purposes. At tho Ame time ostentro fucilties vero granted to agriculture for scoolerating the orpangon of food prodaction As foroign exchange roverves continood to dwin dlo Blexlco in April 1951 doralued its pero by 80 percent or from 8 65 to 1250 per dollar Throngh this dotalostlon the govornment orpects to encourge oxports and the Inflow of foreign apital and to discourago competing imports and the outflop of Merlan fandı. Also tho gorom mont hopes that this mouto will correot coodi tions of International deequillllom that dovelop od largely because of reduced export demand and perloca and the indstion of domestlo prices that took place in proviow yours. It is to be expectod, bo more that further Inflationary prourures on domestio prices will be felt as a conuequonco of the monetary dovaluation, which in turn, will posibly alow down tho Increase in per caput consumption loveb. During 1063 fluctuations in Industrial activity govomment trdo and spending policien, u will us changes in agricultural output manifested themselves diversely in the various Latin Amerland countries. Inflationary prewarea for instance weto substantially reduced in Argentine. The domestio demand for food wus firm but weakened for other consumer good. Polona ganonally tended to loval off and to cost of Uving dochined alightly In Brasll and Chillo bowover Inflationary proudret porulated though in the former country prices InCrowd at slower to then in 1952. Inflation ary condition also perulated unabuted in Penguy and Bolivia mainly due to increased budget defi ofts and expansionlst bank credit policor Bear dty of applies was folt in both countries and more notipoably of food In Bolivia Prico Increased cho persisted in Para, mainly reflooting higher rato of publfo Investment and tho docitning trend in tho oxchange value of the oturronoy Bome Info tfon dovalopod in Colombia during 1063 w higher cofloo prices and progreoiro dovulation of the TABLE: 10 LATLY AXORIOA : ProptOrion OT SELLOTED CODXODITIN CODUODITT 1014 JI erer 111110 ten 19311-3 1104 (proxy) The matris true معاماد 18 000 (7 801) B 40 (0034) 6 490 of whiteb Argenta Whout of whilen Argentina Suger (contrifugal) or wuch Cuba Conco of which Bril Bananas out 14 000 (1 319) 6 130 (5 390 ) 11 000 (5 515) 1 850 (1 039) 6 480 5 OUT 16 300 (3 6.30) 10 610 (7 801) 11 800 (5 150) 1 920 (1 125) T40 17 TL (4 800) 07770 (6 800) LS 600 (4 801) 1 ASD (1 116) 7 720 1 118 (I H6) 4 sto 4 904 Inda of all form prodwes 100 10 138 Bert uudelport, mittop 40 b. 78 ·TAPLE 7 LATTY AMERICA I Brom And Lyrom or 8PATID Coxoxop 1 1132 1733 COXYODITT 11133 Arerur 1711.30 Tetto 1 350 1 100 6 020 70 10 6 990 1 503 7 090 Grow Erports Haire What gugur Cotice Banan, Beef (fresh chilled and frozen) Tool (clean buss) Cotton (int) Cacao • 140 .040 307 117 340 ZOB 1 010 33.0 10 370 14 1-46 104 400 147 7 700 1 710 1 00 140 100 490 200 Grou Imports Wbout 1 Rice (milled ters) 1 070 3 810 140 0 300 3800 100 310 210 180 180 170 170 49 Poutod Banana Cofeo Cotton (lat) Beef (freuh, chilled, frozen) Condensed and eraporated milk Powdered milk POO 200 190 1 30 3 8 23 Inde of all form products : Groe Esports Grous Imports 100 101 30 90 100 153 100 156 Including what don is tern of het ooffco oport exchange rate opwded coffee grow en Incomes and demand The remaining coun tries of the region generally showed a fair degree of prícontability with applicant mtbfuctors logela for meeting tho increased demand at stable prices both at the wholcal and the consumer level OCEANIA Oceania hus thus far been affected only to a limited extent by the increasing competition in world agricultural markets. Despite the region. great dependence on esports of furth products the continued strong demand for rool, meats and dairy producto u well u the special marketing Arangements with the United Kingdom for the Latter two group of prodacts have contritated toward matatalning the farorable economic pod tion of both Australia and \er Zerland in 10 BL. The major exception ry to be found in wheat where there is a sharp declire in both volume and price of exporta. Apart from wheat the main Oceanza export prices han continued their ring tendency ap to 1853/64 with meat cod dulry contract prices xboro 1962/63 lovely and wool prices showing little change Tho continued advance of export price lovela hus however been reflected in some further increu. es in tho general price lorel in both countrien This tendency toward higher prices and then higher costs of production to tlowed with momo concern, mpecially at a time when iniatlonary prerrures have sobeided in neuly all the regions competitive and export markets, Tablo 23 shows that particularly in Australia the general price level and agricultural siges hero riuen alnce 1018 more than those in Denmark and the Metberlands the major European competitors and in the United Kingdom the major export market With the ending of nationing of meat and dairy products in the United kingdom, increasing com petition will be felt by Oceanlan agricultural producer and it is onlely that export prices will adrunco much further Tool prices and somewhat wily in 1051 but molequently recorered while wheat prices may perbapa fall further Att ult of tbe faronable conditions of prodaction and the high labor eficiency of tho regions agricultural 10 ·TADLI 19. . Impex ADHD or AORICULTURAL II AGES, COYT or LIVING AND CEERAL HOUDUL Puur IX SALLOTSD COUS Aploulton met Cort of it Cheben boltrale ptice ( or 2013 1237 rost 1031 1351 1151 Astralia 100 1971 100 170 178 100 184 109 On Zaland 100 142 148 100 133 134 100 140 1138 Unitod Kingdom 100 125 ISE 100 118 130 100 149 100 Donmurt 100 197 137 100 100 103 13 Notharland 100 130 135 100 130 IVO 100 140 134 TOUT Norr AN Ar countrier duratord theb ITDOT by about #percept la plupt mber 1911 industry current oIport prices for most commodi tic continuo to be remmorative Some prico declines would not present sorlow problems or copt for Australian dairy producte rugar 88% and driod vine frulte Para incomes in Oceania are among tho highest in the world both in absolute terms and compared with incomon of Industrial workers, but if they uro to be maintained at the high lovob of rocent veen the problems now emerging are how to sbrorb any poolble price doelina by axpanding tho volume of production in tho most profitable enterprisco and how to maintain or incrocio present profit margins by roducing costs of production through groater efficiency Tho oror-all markot ontlook for the regions farm produots howoror remain favor ble u economio dovelopment within the region proceeds und Occunian osport markots are not likely to orpo ronco any important contractions from Australia to the Unitod Kingdom Are govern od by the long term agreement artending to 1987 Whllo the United Kingdom hopes to obtain cheapar food pricom br rotoring competitive pri nato indo in its domcatlo market any prico de proming affects on major Oceanlan osport produots sro likaly to bollmited to wheat and dairy products, whow prices may declino under the promuro of surpluxes in other crparting comtries. On the other hand though murkot prospects for meat in the United Kingdom aro wamewhat anoertain u roult of the rotum to privato trading, tho total demand for meat is om pocted to romain strong and thore is littlo fear of verlouw compotition from Argentina in this market In tho long run, adjastmonts may lo necemuary in the rooton wboro Ooeanien production costs and los compotltivo o g. dalry moducts In Australia, but in viow of the favorablo ponition of Oceanla. Beat Indestry compared to other o porting com thes and tho anticipatod strong demand in the United Kingdom It L unlikely that the minimum guanantoes for Australia will baro to come into operation. The general qunnteon of wrotrict a entry granted to both countries win continue Thus, tho onding of the United Kingdom bulk purchasing polloy le not expeoted to harm tho export trado of the two countrien. Tho volume of 103/04 United Kingdom Importa of wheat from Australia w reduced following the release of gorortment beld stockin connec tłon with decontrol of the grain trudo and tho greater availability of what from otber moureu. As importa retom to normal loreb 1 compotltivo market to expected of which Autulle whould be able to socuro • good share In Her of the non partielpation of the United Kingdom in the now International Wheat Agreement Australie. The United Kingdom Market The most important detelopment of the year 1053/34 Affecting Octanian agriculture mu the gradual elimination of government food trading in the United Kingdom Tnde in galny and in meats Futter and checoo ras restored to privato bends in 1033 and 1951 roapeotirely At the amo time rutroning and price controls on meats butter and cheese were eliminated Doreover the modification of the inde and supply policy pursued in the latted Kingdom forores the ending of bulk purchasing contracts The meat and day contacts with leu Zealand lapse in 1054 and those with Australu in 10 and 1016 respectively After this, trdo will be in parte hande vith the erception that minimum prices for mat esports 80 ·esport quote was mit br 30 percent in order to enablo the country to continue to supply the tn ditional United Kingdom market The United Kingdom demand for lok Zealand and Australan wool is likely to remain at high lovels dependent upon economic conditions remain ing farorable On belanco prospects for disposing of Oceania : exportable surplures on the United Kingdom markot at remunerative prices are therefore good There prospecto are further strergthened by the obtence of preferential tariff protection on trade with the United Kingdom though it should be remembered that this does not cover the tro im portant commodities of wool and beat Further more where there preference were fixed in money terme the percentage benefit to Oceanlı xil bare dechred considerably rinco prowar Movertheless in Australia consumption per caput of some of the main protectire fools eg butter egon beef mutton and pork has remained some what below prowar levels once nationing wus ended probably becaur of consumer reshatance to higher prices. This tends to redoco average return to farmers in rotno branches of Austra lian Agriculture of dairying poultry farm ing and dried rine fruits for which there are price scheme denigned to also producers returns from domestio nle above the lovel ruling in the cxport market. In nov of the uncertain market ont look for dairy products, tho Australian government has not noised 1933/04 farm price guarantee do spate ascertelned increures in production costa, contrary to the tual practice in low Zealand export return hard remained profitable and domestio oansumptian lovebs of dairy products which already are very high have shown a rang trend in recent years with an increuso in consumer rubadies. Furm prices in low Zealand were held below export prices up to the 1253/81 rearon and by this means tho Row Zealand dairy Industry has been able to build up a largo estabilization to berte (1.7.£24.5 million) against any decline in export prices Conditions for further expan dion of dairy productfon in New Zealand appear to be favorablo Alternative Export Markets With trudo between Oceania and the United Kingdom favored by special marketing ammungomonte by preferential tariffs and by membership of tho sterling erca alternative orport markete ard of minor importance oxcept for wool and wheat Tho Impootlon of strict quotu on importa of detry products into the United States virtually chor this market while the European continental markets for dairy products are likely to be Tory folly rupplied from Denmark and the Netherlands and from tho countries now turning toward e sports Tho nearby and important Aslan markets which havo incroured their porchases of Amtralian wheat esprclally in the form of flour do not generally hero enoagh consumer purchasing power to buy other export products from Oceania, with the exception of wool for which Japan lan customer Rever thelea, imports of certain cheap source of animal protein, such as edm milk powder into many anderdeveloped areu in Africa and Asla here recently increured and if parent development programa in those areas are mecewful an enlarged market may de rebop for such products. The rather sharp declines during 1053/64 in the world wheat market hero Coured como concern In Australls which tnditionally exports orer half her wbeat crop. Although recent trendo la Austra lien wheat prodaction aro due mainly to fluctus tions in weather conditions, planted acreager declined steadily until 1952/03 but roso romewhat in tho 1953/54 Kerron. At tho namo time officially ascertained costs of production have increased sharply while the average farm prica has shown little change. It appear therefore that the relatire profitability of wheat production in Australia must have declined especials fumeri rotors from livestock prodacts bare den Over the past five year. Despite the rising lovel of production costs and the fall in osport prices doring the 1953/01 Keuson, the Bureau of Agn culton Economic comandar that the Australian wheat industry hu w for mintained its favorable position in comparison with North America u. traditional low-cost producer JoreOTET the recent incteute in the price of wheat for horae consumption cod some cuing in rool and domestic mat prices reggest that the Incentives for whent pro. duction muur hare improred and that the decline La tbe dostnikun bent acreage may be chechel Domestic Consumption Levels Price and Future Prospects As a result of generally favorable economie con ditions and the npid growth of population in the region partly due to heary postwur immigration, the domestic demand for furto products has been very strong in recent man Food coorumption kerela bere remained high in both countries 81 ·TAOL. 29. OCEANIA I PODUOTOX OT on Fan PRODUOTT ut 1 ITO IH- Arer 10 19571 fprel.) On the whole therefore curtoot end proo tiro market opportontley appear to be faror. to . further expanion in the rogion s agricult prodaotion. By further atflization of it agar tural resources, concentnting on the produc of those comodities which enjoy tho gran comparatiro adrantago Dounia may well cont! to contributo oven more to world osport rupp ned trip to Anatrella and Now Za Juod: Wool, alan Soat Buttor 1 676 104 168 70 1 BIB 1 020 370 THE FAR EAST Amatnlla thout Sugar Imdar ol all for prodwest 4 2005 21 313 8 410 7601 231) 96T 1 574 100 Tho year 1853 witneand the posing of the at phase of the portwur food shortago In the Eust. A larger production of food graine materially reduced tho import demand of an ber of countries, and with the recovery of al doned rice areas in some of the earplus produk buntzion, the volen markot in Hoovito diwappeared. Bat tho basic problems of porter mangtrition, and unbalanced diet of the e majority of Alans remain to bo moltod. Ne Lutend in Apr 113131 Producers' rotura, in both countries from wool and meat production, with tho pomiblo dicoptsan of plgmoet oontinuo at rommarstiro Hotels and tbo asportod high demand in domortlo and over A markou in the near futuro sem likely to encourage farther arpansion in the output of thom products Problems and Programs of Developmı TARLE 30. OSLA EID AND Lrom or JOB FA ProDUOTI 1136 JH 1180 1941 113 Ayer 40 Grow Exports Australia and New Zoe land Wool (clown) Heat (orta) Butter Attention must now bo focured on tho probl of nuing consumption levels and of improv the health and efiiclenoy of half the world - po Letion concentrated in this region. The pot taution for economic orpenalan of this tut 1 for the most part under-dordloped reglan great Equally formidable are the latt factors and markot forces that coadition repot dovelopment Most gorernments in the regl consider that tho Widota circle of low fnoon poor connumption and statlo prodaotfon can at bo tackled by stato Intervention in planning a financing agricultural and coonomio dovelopune In imploranting their fint Five Year Plan India and China cech in its own way ar unde going ooonomic and social revolutiota. Bacau of the fact that these two countries togeth account for over two-ift of the world popol hon, their economio program of great digal aunce both to the region and the world Eco) whoro peace and security are throtoped or no gency conditione premall, governments of oths Far Eastorn coantites are also implementing dore oprnant programs though one le comprebena ) 193 310 240 451 04 414 713 201 Autml Want ! furu 1 757 ? 1007 1 078 480 74 Grou (importe Kow Zaland beat 101 1D4 Indes of all form prodwest Gross Exports Orow Inparts 100 100 1551 je 157 In 1853 84 wroitunl and erobomo docelog ment wu dor and haltlog in the countries whet the national income Ls heavily dopendent on os po anings of one or two specialled producte. Unde the pronar regimer much prtrato capital and in Leute weet dro ta what dreigt. 82 ·Changing Pattern of Agricultural Prodoc- Hon and Trade ported technical kill went into there countries for profitable production of plantation of oxport crop hilo hale food crops mere relatirely neg lected That situation hu imported an imbalance to agriculture and a degree of rigidity to the nation el economies. How to diren agricultural production in there countries of more speciil calls how to grow more food for bome consumption and ralo a rarkets of cash cropa for wider csport toarkets are tho mala problems of development lational welf-rafficiency motinta much of the corrent development planning In abocating mirro remorcer high priority is famille giren to Yricaltural dovelopment and to promotion of transport power and other buio facilities without which indotrs cannot espand. Since the natu nalresources of tbr region are diretto and Its popo Lation density untren ite economies and largely complementary and there la mach rope for expan sion of intra regional trade in food and agricultm] products. This la part of tho vider qoration of the coordination of national economic policies and dovelopment programe which wu nimed at the recent Conference at Colombo of the Primo Minuters of Burma Ceylan, India Indonesia and Paldietan, altboogh no positive action to that end w taken Blast countries of the region aro passing through - period of transition in which national food and Agricultural policies are being readjusted and foreign economic and trado relations re-oriented in consequence of the vaning influence of the colonial empires each with ito special economic and trado tles with the metropolitan countries concem ed. But although many prowar trado preferencen bere been eliminated the prema pottem of ecomonio relation till influenced the foreign tnde of many of the now state. The progrew of indus triahzation and pentru trend toward all suficien CF are beginning to affect the pattern of agricul tural production and consumption as well as the rolume and direction of foreign tnde in food and #gricultural product. The region us whole remains a large net importer of food although orpenditure of foreign excbargo on food Imports it tending to shrink. In all Asian countries food lo produced largely by subsistenco ferment on extremely omall hold ingh Thov are generally influenced more by baste consumption requirements of tbeh furather than br profit motive to grow more food for the market TUN 31 Pu Pari \AT TUDI OX CELAL IT ti 35 are III. Art 1131 II 19 Ils (IT) Yelen utrk is 1 04 120 let Erports Bumm. Asociated Btates of Laoa, Cam bodla Vlet lam Thailand Othere 25 083 1 on 1 78 I 37 017 15 1 16 0 O A&A 3 0 15 1 40 010 I 40 000 003 TOTAL 843 49 118 la Imports Ceylon India Japan 0 00 302 000 $97 OBO 1 07 10 O 0 ܡܕ درهاعمل 09 3 DO 3 35 00 IO 0 80 07 3 OS 0 73 00 0 00 4 10 000 004 Other 0 00 TOTAL 874 7 01 11 35 10.58 OBO 7 CD Trade Balance Tet esports Vet importa 64 7 07 + 45 Fred H (dual Laduated 83 ·In Jore where land and water resourcer tre well doveloped tho yield of rice per hecture is among the highest in the world. The poor ever age yield in most countries of the region u doo to goneral under-dovelopment of land und specially of water resource Eren with traditional ferm ing practices production per bootare and per per on an bo ospanded materially giren faller deral opment of beslo resources Tho ruolts of the annual crop competitions organized among small furmers by tho agricultural authorities in India illustrate the poolbilities of ordinary farming mothods put to optimam Do Rocent dovelopments in the filold of food and agriculture of apocial significance are the communi ty dovelopment projects and tho largo-sculo in gation schemes and the multi purpomo niver valley projects which are under way and in como o nearing completion Community dovolopment, which is integrated with gricultural extension services Dow cover nearly 40 million people lying in about ono-elghth of India , belf a mil lion villagea Tho incitared tompo of activity in constructing minor damn irrigation rolls and amls maldog of compost incrowing the one of commoralul fertilen introducing better took and improred poed wil orentaally make an impor tant contribution to the oxpansion of food and agai cultural production. Tho raccea of wat joer' experiment in adopting the Japanere method of rico cultivation on L4 million hoctaron la a dgnif icant pointer to tho poublo improvement of all holden ylelds in the jours ahead TAD 32 LYDIA 1 AORIOULTURAL PRODUOTIOX UNDER THE FITE I un PLAN COVODITY Improvement of Supples of Basic Foods Under tho promuro of critical powthar xhortages miny gyrotamsatsioltiated food production dures out of which havo omorged much of the national development policies and programs in the field of agriculture. In the last two youn the baro contributed materially to the orpansion of food production in the region Ercopt in Pakistan and Japan, weather conditions hero aloo Loen gener ally favorable BLoroove prices of rico wheat and other grain, have been more remunerativo than non food prodacta. This has provided added Incentivo to food production. Analhablo statistics which are far from perfect and by no means tnctly comparablo suggest that grain prodaction in the region, orcluding China, In 1833/01 rus nie million toru or about nino porcent abovo the provar level The Inforence that the incrouse in food prodaotian has failed to keop p co with the growth of popa lation is almo supported by the continuing bigh lovel of et corcuh Imports into the region. Hos erer tho 1954 import program of goremments suggest a significant improvement in the rapply atuation of cereals in the region HAM yer (111) 1931) 1931/ 115t 1833 1931 1968/ 1931 1950 re) teht Low mairiem Pood gramat Cereal Pulie 40 2 431 47 4 86 65 0 DO B 9. Tota 51 8 BOO 640 01 0 57 64 Hugur (guit) Olmedo (3 main type) Cotton. Jute 6.3 0086 0 0 08 084 OBU B6 O as 0 371 078 098 Eropti tood un for which the relately food atop er of 1918/19 be bocu teln is the period The First Five Year Plan of India Among the under-deteloped countries India is an quo lo tho degree to which it has planned an integrated development of Ito mlied economy on the basu of eelf help and thoot onddo regi mentation Stato control is applied only at an tegic points in order to enruro that the pattern of developroent is in line with the First Fire Year Plan Essentially the plan enrlaager public financ Ing of remorce development with high priority for expanded production of food and fibers in the first Are your The polics objectire in this period is to restore the premu lerel of consumption and dirert any surplus aring from current consumption into larestment for further economic dere lopment Fasanble rather and development programa have combined to make the vear 1012/03 . turning polat in Indian Agriculture In the year the prodaction of food mains wu for million tons (ten percent) zboro the output of the provious yeur and the improvement continued in 1963/64 with further locteix of about eight milion tool. As a result importa of cereals hero fallon from the postmar part of 47 million tons in 1001 to 3.0 in 1939 and 20 in 1933 Price and disti bution of busio foods are being gradually decon trobed us the supply station Improsta Alt bough grain production in 1964 1. about equal to consumption roqutrements Indla lo to 84 ·import mo 000 tons of reo from Burms in order to bulld up a food reverte this is aboat one third of the power aronage of 2.7 million tons of which 17 came from Burma and the balance from the grun surplus atras now within Pakistan. Judging from fierent production trends the tar gete for grain production should be reached well within the Plan period. The position of commer clal crop other than cotton and oilseeds is some what less promising Strong export demand wil however inflaenco the production of tes, coffee tobacco nuts and spices important eameti of foreign exchange and for which no targeta haro been ret under the Plan. Economic Difficulties of Ceylon and Malaya The cronomics of Cerlon and Jlolayı art broad ki similar in that they both hard attained . relativels high national Income through agricul tural specialiation at the risk of insecurits with regund to baslo food only a fraction of which is home grown. In recent year the economic alt ution of both fluctuated widely doc to a rapid riso folloned us an equally sharp fall in the export prices of rubber and admilar morement of their terms of trade. Cerion has already undertaken . number of irrigation and power development projects u vell w land reclamation and coloniza tion schemes to reduce its dependenco on imported rice and abo to diretoify it. economy In order to finance its development projects of high porty the goremment bu reduced the food rubaids suspended some social services and factured the chargea for publlo utility wervices. The Federa tion of Malaya, . British territory is still faced with a serious emergency situation, which is draw ing heartly on the resources of the Colour and the Plotropolitan country Juch of the funds arall able for economic development la being prut on Improvement of transport and communications and the share of agriculture is relativels small Farther pret Development Problems and Policies of Pakistan PaHstan . economlo polioy hu stressed rapid industrialization of the country and in recent yan cotton and jato textile industries for in stance bare been given higher prionty than agn cultural development Economic conditions in Pakatan deteriorated npidly after the collapse of tho Korean “boom. Sharp decines in forelga demand and export prices of its two main cush crop fate grown in Eust Bengal and cotton produced in Test Pakistan, reduced the tempo of agricultural development The partial failure of the wheat crop for two succeuite rarona transformed the country e mall food murplos into a beary deficit yuro ru placed on foreign exchange resources by the purchase of nearly 500 000 tons of wheat in 1032/33 In 103181 however the United Stala mpplied 610 000 ton u uglft and Canada and Axtralia contributed further topplies through the Colombo PLL With food shortage coinciding with the full in prices of Pakistans mala export products the Agricultural anthorities were confronted with the problem of growing more food at tbe expenre of cash crop. Not only were the price rapport schemes for jute and cotton withdrawn bot measures rere alto taken to cut the jate area drutclr und Tor more rice instad In 1033 jate output fell to leat than half its 193 levelIn 1934 production of cereals to expected to be about one million tons above the output in the previour The country is now in a better pouition to finance agricultural development rhemet. Tbe immediate objective of the economic police of the governdont ure to regain rell sofficienes 10 food us quickly upouible and to pash abead with Redaction in Export Incomes of Barma and Thailand The relative prosperity of the rice-4urplus coun tries of Southeast As particularly that of Thai land and Burma may decline with the emergence of the buyers market in nice unles thet a export mort dee or promote trdo in other commoditie, cg, timber minerals etc In Burms, the rice trade a state monopoly has accounted for three fourths of the foreign exchange carnings olnce IDJI and has corered the heary cont of re-ettabluhing Internal recunty rehabilitating the mur-derulated nee industry and retiring the forestry mining and ou enterpriset. Thaland bieh suffered little war damage and hu been producing anul esporting more nice than before the rar is ako fucing a bus of revenue from the state-controlled nice trade and with an adverre balance of in de las had to cat nonethential importo Her Transitional Economies of Indonesia and the Philippines Both Indonesia and the Philippines are passing through difficult period of transition With the ritual diuppe rundt of her former sugar itu industrial program 8.

·trado two thirds of Indoneslan aarning of foreign exchange oome from rubber copra, tes palm oil and tin, commodities for which demand and price have fluctuated sharply To sve foroiga oxchango the government is endeavoring to la crear, rioo prodaotion by 200 000 tons anatally with the intention of roaching relf suficlancy in 1050 Progreu la roportod to hero boon good and r1oo Imports fall from the peak of 760 000 totu in 1962 to low than 300 000 tons in 1963 The Philippines have already regained their prow rolf-anfilotenay in rice and efforts are being mado to improve the quality of the diet Insuf Aalency of feeding stuffs has hitherto conditioned tho improvement of Urestock and increased produotion of mout and dairy prodacte. The programs for tho dovolopment of tho cattlo poultry and pig undantries are likely to be stopped up in the coming yon. But the country lo fadng economlo dimculties because of its persistent trado deitalt and tho roduction in direct Amorian sid. Tho pooltion may booomo more difficult after July 1054 when her traditional exports to tho United States aro llable to increuing osport duties and . diminishing freo quota. has surpawod tho provar lovel. A significant change in tho pattom of dlot has also taken place with tho increasing sobotitution of other cereale for Hoo and 1 time in the consumption of milk products and sugar Imports of carcal Into Japan aro bow trico us heavy us before tho var Boonuse of the pur tlal crop fallare lo 1053 imports of 4.18 millo tom of carcas baro boen programmod for 1051 This comparts with the total Imports of 8 46 mill lion tonu in 1853 300 in 1052 and 1 85 befaro tho war Japan is leo the largest wnglo merkot in the roglan for each esport Products us sugar woybauds delry produota robbar vad no cotton. Economic Development in China Industrial Progress and Improvement of Food Consumption in Japan Many of the promont day food and agricultora) problems of Japan arise from postwu territoria) change population increases, uwoll us ocanonio und social readjustments. Tho rohabilitation of the war-dovastated industrial economy has roool od a higbor pelority in Investment than agricultura Although tho Japaneno hero adopted very eni cient motbods of rico cultination ylalds could be ruined still furthor for example through moro effective control of plant divuit and peste Tbo rapid ospedaron of industrial outpat lo roflected In the improvement of food consumption, which In 1953 tho Contal Pooplo Corornment ord berkod on its first Five Your Plan for sconomio dovelopment which Laid spocial emphasis on Indur trial espansion. This implien Incrouod importe of apital goode, ospodaly heary enginoering equipment in orohange for food grains and other agricultural products. China has already coured to impart rico, wheat wheat four tobacco gundy ach and nay cotton and for some of thoro hu bocomo en or porter It has, for instance entered Into . fivo your trado agreement with Coylou in 1853 under which the Littor roceives 270 000 toal of Chinoso rico in erobango for 60 000 totu of sboet rubber auch year Grain crope harvested in 1003 aro now estimat od to have been a good w in the prorious year With the improvement of Inland transport tho overhaul of the grain colloction and distilbution system, and thoanlability of substantial surplauch of millots and royboans in Blanchurle, any roour ranco of wriou end ulderproud food shortago poems onlikely In the last threo your agricultural prioon havo boon atabilized rources doveloped and farming methodo Improved Tho ortenalan of pouunt proprietorship after tho ospropriatlon of tho Lendlords is reported to havo provided wn Incontiro for incroused agricultural production. But beau of tho denuo rural population tho farms aro extremely small and much fragmented und to counter the impediment to aficant farta ing, the authoritios ero organbing perante into mutbal old toume. No significant atep haro yot boon takan torund organizing farming into producen co-operatives collecthro andstato farms, Altbough the ultimate policy objectivo is to estab Dlab fully wchallat Largo-rcalo mechanised col leotiyo fuma. TAJLE 32 JAPAX Foop RUTFLY HX Carut COMOTODITY 1953 Aron 1351 1053 Drut 200 2 183) 71 4 360 7 20 3 12 0 18.3 30 2 87 Rico Whost Barley Peu and being Olk and dairy pro docto. Ruger (refined) Potatoea Greet potatoor 84 12 9 NIO 11 1 17 7 416 06 7 313 201 414 000 fort 124 Orkad Er Tokyo, Jauny 1951 86 ·Tur 34 PAR EAST PRODUOTION OF BELECTED CoordITIC 1734 38 duto 1111 0 Tento 1131/13 Co OKODITT 1933/64 Orol) Tad metrte to Roo (milled oquivalent) beat Other portal 05 3.89 13 126 4 961 it 10 34 200 07 804 10 097 17 18 7 130 10 AJO 23 0.23 100 TOTAL LALA 100 413 105 071 111 776 8-17 8 OTT OBUS 016 8 115 4 447 504 Pulson 8ngar Iogutablo olla To Tobacco Cotton Jato Rubber 437 703 1 0.00 1 000 800 607 710 1 128 1 574 O 01 70444 4 000 302 000 059 1 048 1 02:8 021 1 700 Index of a larn products 104 6:9 100 103 Tan 36. FA EurExrom AND Lrom OT BOZOTED ComutoDITIES ComoroDITI 103133 TIR 111 50 anana 1951/52 10054 (prel.) Gran Erports Rico Thailand Vegetable Ollo Toe Indle Tobacco Ipd Cotton katan Jato Pukutan Rubbor Helga & QUU (1 389) 1 800 308 (140) 110 "(21) 740 (013) 700 (768) 905 (120) 3840 (1 178) I 200 191 (101) 67 (18) 3 250 (1 413) 1 30 410 (168) 68 "600 (1 312) 1 110 400 (125) 60 (39) 35 090 (210) 1 780 (1) 1 800 1650) 310 (246) 845 1888) 1 600 (590) (980) 1 884 (678) Gran Imports Rico Wheat India Cotton Japan 630 1 750 (50) 090 (770) 1 290 4220 (1 715) 510 (214) 000 810 (500) 760 3 160 6 100 (1 678) 700 (481) Index of all for product Gros Esports Oron Import 100 71 TO 100 100 91 عمل ما علفعل Eschdre Brper cotropit trade 87 ·NEAR EAST 1 Tho topld expension of Near East food and agriculture in recent year bu naturally wrought special problems along with it. Some of thoro problems and related to tho partioular structure of the region food and agrioultural economy and are of a moro permanent nature while other are tho remult of oxternal factor either lang term or transitory of which cutant changes in the global mapply and demand otuation ero the most Important. Tho impact of the lattor obviowly vurled with tho apocial agricultural and economio chanzcteristics of individual countries currently their effocts are mont marked in thou areu where long rungo policies and program for food and egr cultural development had craved major shanges in the volumo or in the orientation of prodaction Tho probleme reviowod hero ero groupod under three heading production, trade and consumption, although clearly they are closely inter connected. A final votion nummarltos recent adjustments mado in oxloting policies and programs in some major countries of the region. 1991 and 1052 being more than offret by . docino of about ano-fifth during the following your Relative to the reto of increase of crop production, expansion of Irostock produota hos boon muoh slomar Bulaally those trondo rofloct tho Holdity of the pattern of our Estern griculture in which rather limited zones of highly intensive production, mostly cultirated under irrigation and froquently dopondant on export markets altomate with rut Areas of ortensive grain production and with aquelly large erou of nomadlo and somi nomadio livestock broodling Efforts to simulato agrico] tunl os panaion have not yet substantially modi fied this bordo patter Emphul has often beon on crops which are relatively bury to orpand such grains and in countries liko Turkov Syria and Ing for instance thero is still imple scopo for further program toward diversification of production through the adoption of more inten giro crop rotations including fango crops and the reduction of fallov (Table 36) In many countries of the region bowover thero are verlots obetecles whloh stand in tho way of such an adaptation of urſoulturo weakness of the grarian structuro resalting olthor from an arceiro rubdivision of tho land in kmall tuneco nomlo holdings, or from an oxtrotoo concentration Prodaction TAD 30 ARAR EAR LAND UTILITION DX BELMOLOD COURT ITD Tarhet Ing Byrteryprus 48 Grin Follow Other emble land 43 40 3 48 11 9 Tho most atribng foetores emerging from an analyzio of recent trends in production in the Nour East are on the ano hand tho unoren gea graphical distribution of the expansion achioted and on the other tho appreciablo variations in the ortant to which individual commodities or commodity group havo contribated to this expen ulon Progtes tends to be concentrated largely In food murplus countries lio Turkoy Byrla and Ing In major defiat countries liko Egypt and tho Lebron, production has developed moro slowly and on . per caput bazi, hus thus far falled to recover its preuar loroAs to compooditie whilo all major cropa shared to a varying ortent in the advance made the largest expansion has taken place in grain the output of which in 1953/ 1054 reached . record lorel of 32.0 million tons or more than one half and one third respectively over the pronar and post ter svergo (Tablo 38) In contrast with the costuned expansion of graine trends in production of cotton which are largely determined by developments in foreiga demand have been more ematic the sharp Increase between Total anublo land 84 08 00 Orchards and vineyards Blondow ***** 10 Total cultivated aro 100 100 100 1 100 Van het ont Total cultivated area 1071 00 Additional muing lands 66 toMD 1 Tu tema talent 10clude the countna from Turks in th rth t Fthu Tha and tho Somali Land in the south frm Lubya in the last to Afghan Intan in the East Mtsnukle Kone or more Torlei fatintol Nord • Led Uulpa tlog 11511 Ing Talpary Ron 10-11/93 AmicoKUNU UD Syn_ Ette, volstry of Aottare 0 Whet Dard Cyphicalmul Copo 1730 88 ·la large extata often cultirated under share cropping arrangemente porerty of the farmers which lord no enrplas for even the most neces ury inrestment in fertilizers and other agricultural improvements poor health conditions and while spread malnutntion in rural areas Jſoch hus already been acbicted br Near Fast gorernment to improve these conditions, eg through meumrem to Increase the flow of agricultural credit direm Ination of more efficient farming techniques and improvement of agrarian structure. Further progrey may be expected as development programs now under ny begin to beur froit Tevertheless, the thinformation of Amer East ern agriculturo along more intensire liber la likely to be slow procent. Realization of the phriaal powibilitleg of imprutetoent require considen ble amounts of investment which in much of the Near East are not readily avalable. The oll producing countries of the region form a special Here the problem is the directxon of spend Ing Thilo Ing and Iran aro endowed with rich Terourcei capable of intensive development other oil producen are faced with lack of productive enterprises on which to spend. In most other parts of the region, however derelopment has to bo finan ced from local resources and in many countries, capital is inadequate to meet oten minimuro invent ment neede Regional antwogements of the type proponed in 1933 at a meeting of the linisters of Finance and National Eronomy of the Anb States to facilitate the matement of funds within tbo Near East deserto carofol comideration Also poteworthy are the long term credits recently frunted lrg some Europeur countries to Turkey and Iran for the purchase of machinery and equip- Dent. reflecting the expansion of local production and the effects of programs to attain greater relf sufficiency in lasic foods such u had been initiat ed for instance in Egypt In 10.2 Esports of food and agricultural commodities which in most countries account for • very high proportion of the total (excluding oll and oil prod Octa) arengeil vome keren percent over the pre w rolume during 100-53 A harp increase took place in 1073 with exportu ozceeding tho jmo var everage by more than one fifth Pricto, bor over hero generally been lower with the notable exception of coffee cxporta from Ethiopra. The relatirols glow development of dear Eut food and Agricultural esports since the war hat been influenced by several facton come «bort term in character others mort lasting in their effocta Higher domatio requirements of food atuita and raw materiale baro sometimes rosulted in reduced export availabilitles A fundamental difficulty horever is the limited range of Neur Eutem osport commodities for some of which such us fresh and dried fruitnuts and tobacco, marketing dificulties are considerable wbile other like cotton, are particularly remitiro to fluctura tlons in the level of oconomic activity in the import ing countries or to competition from alternatire Hources of supply as shown in Tablo 37 wome progrew has been made in the past two year toward • further direnlcntion of the esport structure. In particular the growing importance of grain ciporta is to be noted. It is uncertain to that extent the currently contrging pattem of leur Est exports with its incteuing concentration on basic agricultural commodities will be malatained the appearance TAL, 17 \FAN FAST CoxroSITION Or Eroty of Food XD LORICULTURAL PRODUCT) Trade (Drop - BI ATT ܐܟn 1413 Meret 45 45 42 17 18 17 Tho postwar period has been chancterized bs important shifts both in the rolume and compo altion of the region foreign trade The gradual intensification of development policies and program and tho espansion of the of Industry hare cused an increasing demand for capital equip ment foodstuffs and other consumer goods and importa hare inceared npidh During 1031 however the errunsion of importe bas not been posintuned Following the diarreruse of the nur material boom and the inbrequent fall in esport prorteda tbere ns. substantial decline in imports in most countrie The decline nu Accelerated busharp contnction in food Imports 10 14 10 17 Cotton Fruits and vegetables Onla Inyetable oilseeds and oils (Incl. oikat) Tobacco Other 1) J 7 4 8 7 7 17 11 10 $ TOTAL ion 100 100 49 ·oorts of production by raialng sgriooltan produk tivity and to lower costs of distribution lig im provements in the marketing system. of largo sorplus opodally of grain and cotton in North American, and the decline in prices of ny materials havo already cured . sharp fall In the foreign oxchange receipts of Egypt and tho Sudan, Fhoto oxport tredo ta etentually dependent on cotton The grain surplus countries like Tur koy Syrle and Ing aro also oxperloncing markot ing difficulties as exporta decrease in olther volumno price or both. Resulting polioy obenges aro dia cugod Lator Adjustments in Food and Agricultural Policy Consumption In many Repldly incrousing populations and tho gndue) growth of incomo tocintod with ooonomic dovel opment are causing the demand for food to orpand stondlly in the past two or three yean supplies from local production sapplemented in romo in stanoon by importo bero on the whole been adequato in rolution to offootiro domand. This does not imply of courro that food supplies havo boon atlofactory in all rowpoota. Progress has been mainly in tho Inteko of onergy producing foods Iko grains and protoctivo foods of higher nutri tive valuo moh u animal products and pulee have not shown a correspondinginorous Improvo ment in the general standards of food consumptlon remain doinble over yut arou whero sabalatence farming is prodominant as well u in meny urban centon There is orldone that lack of transport and distribution fochtier i bocoming * vrtou ob. staclo to the crpanalon of consumption, partlon larly in those countries where the improvement of production has been most marked. In komme ureu of Latemalto cultivation of fruits and vegeta blou markoting dificultlu hare forced farmeri to cut down production. In contrut whoro ado. quato processing and marketing facilities buvo recently been establlahed much u milk conser ration plante in oortain cities, local demand for and production of mik uro inctoulog sharply There are also indications that government poll cles with respect to rotall prices of food particu Larly livestock prodacts by impoulng medmum price in an attempt to reduce the cost of Living haro sometimes discounged the dorelosment of production It would seem that in many countries of the region the problem of reconciling adoquato Incentire to producent to orpand production in e derin bila direction with prices to consumen which will not disconnge consumption has hardls been tackled A atlsfactory solution will inyolso In most instances additional action both to teda.co Tho preceding peragraphs hare outlined the mala dimulties of food and agricultural develop ment in the Nour Eut In production, the problem in much of the region is the sohíovement of further progrew toward . Doro Intensive pettom of agn culturo epocially throngh . clower Integration of crop and livestock farming to make poelblo an improvement in the standards of consumption Espansion of consumption mordover will require . considerable dovelopment of markoting and do tribution facilities to permit tho absorption of the products of an expanding grdoalturo Apart from mouknoues Inherent in the modul structuro the obstacles to progres along there lines aro with tho notablo orception of the oil prododng arou often of a Inancial chan otor countries abartago of capital imponon merlot Ilmi tations on the roope of government action and thu dificulty has been accentuated by the full In faroign exchango rocoipts romulting from the doolino in oxport prices of many produota of tho reglan Where policy adjustments are being made in the Ilght of the changed conditions of supply and domand it is gonerally emphasized that no change In bulo polioy is intended The objective romain further oxpanelon of agriculturo not only to moet the roquirements of a napidly growing popo Letion but also boonto stagnation in wriculturo would be a dotorront to progrtIn other voctors of the economy Tho adjustments made very of couro with the particular altuation and the problems of cach country Among the grain murplus countries tho impuot of faling world poiten bu probably boon mont verlow in Turkey whoro rulotential surplus o mainly of whout and barley hato boen avail able for osport daring the past three youn. Bup. plies have mored rather slowly however whilo arerago erport riuen hare toadily declined in tbe case of wheet for instance from $111 por ton at the end of 1952 to $70 por ton in December 12.13 Yith guaranteed price paid to farmer narying from $00 to $100 por ton for tho 1063/64 euron, there is thd . Largo dlfforonco betroen loal and export prices which is met from govern nent fund ·In spite of merent difficultler however it to boped to maintain a steadils expanuling rolume of exports with emphasis on laric agricultural commodities like grain and cotton Special atten tlon to being given to measures to improve the quali trof Turkish csport products, in particular through the development of better grain rareties and the improvement of gading and randardization Since failare to meet delivery date has not Infie quently resulted in loms of estes and bar tended to keep prospectire boyen out of the market programe for the expanion of transportation und storage facilities have been speeded ap While the system of guaranteed grain prices ls to be maintained modification hare recently been in troduced to increase prices of coarte graine rela time to wheat and to provido additional premium for certain type of grain like luard wheat for which demand prospects are conaidered forombie Al though there changes have como too late to in fluence the years production, it is likely that a hift will take place next year toward larger outpat of contre grain. With the significant improvement in Turkey Kandards of living arer tho pust four tean partie alarly in rural areas meamures have been taken to encourage • pansion of output of livestock Jodacta to meet demand from higher income. It is expected that part of the course grain produc tlon will be abeorted by the livestock Industry Expansion of transportation facilities may alto lead to a widoning of the market for fruits and vegetables of the Holterranean region and for fub consumption of which has been confined to the coutal area and the citla. While durering in male the problem of Syria with its growing erport economy are not unlike tbomo of Turkey and government action is largely on similar Unen High priority lo being given to programs for improving transportation facilities particularly with a rlow to boring mpplies more quickly from the newly dercloped Euphrates and Jezireh districts Yith expeculon of production expected to con tinuo the need for quality improvement is increaingly being realized. Recent meuurts Include provision for wider distribution of improved wheat varieties through the heat Bourd while activ itla of the Cotton Bureau with respect to weed distribution, ginning and grading continuo to Increure. In the food deficit countries the problems of production and consumption are particularly prem Ing in Egypt Fallure of production over the past decades to provide adequato consumption standards for e rapidly growing population had caused a large increase in importe of boalo foodstuffs, carpe cially grln. Following tbo very sharp fall in cotton prices during 1031 and 1032 the Egyptian Government faced with serious balance of payments dificulties, embarked opom. policy of greater rellefficiency in food Including mach meuuren u the introduction of improved wheat varieties and hybrid malze At the same time tho price of local wheat w greatly increased · minimum acreage to be worn to wbent establibed and the area under cotton restricted As a reralt production of wheat increased to 1.8 mi) Licon tona in 1033 an Increase of one third over the proceeding year and importa docliped by over The output of cotton foll br 30 percent Whether the trend toward greater wolf-sufticlenoy will be maintained in future yten batill uncertain, Roriring demand for Egyptlan cotton lower pri ces of imported wheat and an improved balance of payments poultion here already cuoed some one hall TABLE SEU EXT: PRODUCTIOY OT SELECTED COXXODITIO TOOTHTI 1331 35 Everere 174 30 Stetso 11.59.3 1933/34 (preudert) 100 21 200 (7 200) Temetrie Le 10 200 14 000 40 O 400 2 200 0 200 (7 910) (11 000) 16 000 6 000 3600 (13 000) Cheat Parks Total gran of wireh Turkey Зураг Citrus frut fchich lel Cotton (lat) of which From Tiburto Inder of all farm products 70 (307) 9.00 (31) 1 100 (100) 601) (to) 85 (301) 115 (HO) (317) I.J 100 115 134 Ipohdinte smk din tand worshippt, md rice 91 1 ·TABLI 39 NE FATEORI AYD LOD OF BLOTED COOCODITI CODIODTY 1NIH ante 1941-50 &TIN 13/ 11.30 polothury 240 Gros Esports What Barloy Total grain 1 Citrn frunt of whlah Ieruel Cotton (lint) of which Egypt Tobacco 140 440 1 010 240 (211) 19 (343) 700 310 1 910 170 940 340 (300) 470 (878) 10 010 0 1 600 240 (162) 400 (170) 60 0:00 (310) 75 1 240 Gran Importa Theat of which Peypt Total grain Bagar po (16) 470 320 (482) 1 070 510 1 710 (002) 1 000 470 1 500 (157) 1 770 320 Inder of all farm productos Grow Esports Crow Imports 100 07 106 111 100 APO Inchtne tym te, bat, utlet od morgun, ud som relaxation in ecroago rostrictions on cotton and u redaction in the price of lovely grown wheat. It is unlikely that ondor prouent condition, Egypt aan achievo moro then an uncertain balance be twoen th. ulterutro other to raiso andmed maro cotton and import food or to limit cotton and grow its own food, Themo cumplea of recent polloy developments in some major countries of the lour Eut show that the adjustments mado aro largely within ruthar narrow limita. In most cases, thoy have been determined by external factors of trends In demand for Near Eastera osports and develop mente in the balance of payments dtuation Only exceptionally has any attempt boen medo to hnk programs for the expansion of production with special meunures for a general improvement of consumption Where this has been tho can attention has been directed mainly to uban urdu In most of the region, the problem of improving consumption standards in the subsistenco rector remuns virtuely untouched the prosent world situation. Samo areas have a ready sharply folt the effoots of lower prices for commodities now in moro abundant supply but in such areas u in tbono whomo prosperity hex not yet boon affected, tho beslo problema romin the mme u boforo. Such noodo u tho divern fication of the more procariously barod doonomies tho dovolopment of Internal perkota, tho improve ment of transport and attention to tho quality of production hero bocomne moro urgent whillo tho improvement of food consumption raains tho most important problem of all Actual surpluste aro at present only of local importanco in Africa Stocks of botter and cheero Are growing in the Union of South Afrian, but it ta hopod to clour thom by campaign to stimulato homo consumption and by oxports to other parts of Africa. The maito surplu in Uganda arting from the unexpectedly bary 1963/64 crop mus sold in Kenya and Tanganyiko where thoro were sorloo shortages though Ugande producor havo boon ukod to Umit future production to the torri tory's roquramenta. In 1853 Algerian wind output regained the pronar lovel with an abrupt Hoe of 60 percent which will neceultato the destination of greatly increased quantity But surploma in other parts of the world apo cally of oilucede and cotton, here already bed pronounced effects in some African territorler A AFRICA 1 The problems of agricultural dovelopment in Afrio are accentuated rather than changed by 1 Eccloda Eppt Eritrea, Ethropia Liby, the Bomaande und the Budon.

·dlrontification. In Pronch Yast Africa for in stone there is already tondonoy for products to trabufor from olweds to the moro proftablo bovorage crope. The purchasing power (1938 100) of coffee mus atimatol at 200 and of oocom 200 in this territory in 1052 as opposed to 117 for palm oil and 86 for palm kernel The sop fa] In cotton prices of nearly 40 percent reducod Uganda , favorablo balance of trade from £23 million in 1052 to about £8 million last year West Afroan tontories and in particular the prodacent of palm products, and feeling the effects of the changed oibeeda situation. During 1053 tho Nigeria Oil Palm Produce Martoting Board had to draw for the first time on Its scoumalatod funds to meet ginnteod prices, to tho ortent of £37 million for palm off and £07 million for palm kernel. Tho primo announoed for palm oll in 1934 ahom. full but does not completely reflect the movement in world moon rato Nigerian Bourds mtablebed to market indi vidual product, havo rocently boon roorganized Into Regional Boerde, auch responsible for all the major export crops of the region. Palm product are produced in both the outen und western regions and it is therefore pondblo that there may be different regional prices, pocially · tho castern region may not out of ita omall rocorro bo ablo to continuo the stabilization of palo oll pelcom Another now dovelopment for tdo Batish West African territorio is that with the return of tho Unitod Kingdom trado In Ouluoeds to printo hends the government « long term contracts will end in June 1031 Instead of JD-0.5 The Dloersification of Economia The Development of Internal Marketa Growing domestio demand for agricultural prod note with incrousing populations and tho emer genco of non-ugricultural activities to likely to bring greater olomont of reability to African griculturo by diminishing dopendanco on ign cultural oiporte Boforo tho mar not oxports of groundnuts and oil wore about 60 poroont of the regions production in tho 1048-52 porlod not exports roproented only about 40 percont of production which had almost doublod. Orer the umo porlod dot orports of sugar foll from 30 to 18 porcent of production, whillo production Inoroased by dearly 50 percent with an uncor tan export situation moto producer will find that production for intomal trado may bo itroll profitablo and froot & moro stablo markot How over It cannot of courro compensato for any ko vero dotorloration in the oxport mitution - loon! domand itself dopondo greatly on the incomes derived from osports. Local procesing of some oxport Producta han aloo increased Before the war only about onto portont of African groundnut exportu wu In tho form of oll and to region wu in fact e not importer of groundnut oil but fn 10-18-62 about 30 porcent of exports me in thla form, mainly from French West Africa. About quarter of the otporta of oll went to othor Afrian territories. Tho reglan mall connumption of nx cotton Incround more then fourfold between 1038 und 1852 with opo cally thing rise in the Belgian Congo and tho Union of South Africa. Howovor per aput oon sumption of all cotton products still ruppled bargoly from Imports appear to have increased very littlo during this period. Tho increased production of food for tho domes tic market is un ementlal buls or further economia expansion. Efforts are being mado to Incroup food production in most ateus see and rogar in particular being planted on DOT) Irrigated or cleared land. Increased rice production to being Somo African economies depend heavily on the oxport of one or two agrioultural products and are thus veritivo to fluctuations in world markets. Tho Item Imples are the virtually completo dependence of Mauritius and Réunion on their osports of sugar and of the Gamble on ground nut. but some others are almost a striking Of ten a single commodits largely determines tho belanco of paymente position and the osport duty on it fomirbes a major part of budgetary Totende Tho sharp effect of lower cottom prices on Ugundas balance of payments wu cited above cotton normally roprementa Dearly 70 percent of the ruluo of this temtors 1 ci porta and the duty on it prodou third of its retende. The development of mineral resources and of processing Industries and the encouragement of alteratire crops are ſent uret of many detelope ment plana. In some teritorler boxerer It will be a long time before much can be uchlesed torud reducing the present overwhelming predominance of one or to crops. Recent changes in tark marketo emphusize the valaenbillty of much econ omics and should thus tend to arrekento their 1 Laurice Langolo “Lerolution du marche fren qala they hulles cosetter dan lo adro Dondial Chroniques of Own Ver Deo. 1983 Jan. 2051 93 ·promoted in the French territories, where rollanco on osport rope La very pronounced. In the dove) opment plan for tho Bolglan Cango great omphe sis is placed on tho internal markot. Any substantial incrosto in food production In volro drving on what is at protont tho mbalst onoo sootor Farmon in the hinterland are often almost completely out off from the rost of the conn try havo Iittio incontive to prodaoo for ulo eod thu make . negligible contribution to tho scono my If they can be linkod mith the root of the oponomy by marketing facilities and by transport and if adoquate stongo oan be provided for thoir produce their incroured incomes will stimulato demand for all the products of tho coonomy Tho problom is to turn the subsistenco farmer into . #pedaluat producor of food for the spodallat pro duoers of orport. Increanod production in the prouent wobeistonoo rootor hu its dangers of course and cloon attention must be paid to such technical aatort u tho hoceleration of crosan. the rest of the sconomy Tho premont oltuation is such that ofton ho an export only his lebar Roads ero requirod to Ink the hinterland with the more doveloped area bund on the export of grioultural and minoral producte, so that it bon como profitable to produce a surplu of food crops for ulo For examplo much of the food at pret ant imported for the Gold Court oocor furten could, us is rooognized in the dovelopment plan, bo produced in the territory's own hinterland if tramport frollitia vero provided. The Quality of Production The Improvement of Transport Tho romartable oipudalon of Afries i osports In tho peut Afty year bu gone hand in hand th tho dovolopmont of trumport and this is still tho criential bus for futuro program. The Locu mulation of stocks of grouorauts at hano in Nige He is only one Instance of the congestion of 1 wuy and port facilities that is frequent et pouk markoting periode. Most dovelopment plant rocog niso this pood by allocating the largest proportion of resources to transport and conuldonablo improve monta baro already boon made in Africa's ports and my though ofton at . abror rato than ww originally hopod Transport improvoments are also capontial for the Integration of the rubabstence producer with Increased compotition in world markots maken furtbor attention to quehty Impertiro Bluch hu already been achlorod by the price polides of tho Horloting Boards in the British administer od tarritories and by co-operativo organizations obowhare In Nigeria the production of "Spocial Grado palm oil inoroured from one poroont of total marketingo in 1060 to 80 porcont in 1963 Nover tholou, tho yield and quality of the produce of West Afria , will oil palms are still conuderably behind the Par Eastern plantation Industry Mach program li ospeoted from tho dlatribution of improved variation of meado and woedlingt in mout tortorion In Madaugamour for example old coffoo troen aro being roplaced by woodlinga of tho robusta varloty dlotributod froo and grout increason in ylekis oro orpootod In many one posts and discuss tako immen.ro toll. Lo splto of tho intondro ondication aum paigu, wallon shoot i stil , perfous problom in tho Eutern Province of the Gold Court und somo parts of Nigorie Dantage from capeldo and black pod rot eboo groetly roduces tho 0000. hervoat. TAM 40 AYRICA 1 PRODUCTION OF SALIUTED CONXODITI COCODY 19JI 1950 AT 1912/3 113/14 Qomat) 3800 (1 268) of och French Morth Afna Barley of which bra hlorth Africa LLO of such Union of South Africa Rico (peddy) Sugar (no) Grounouto (oil quiralent (3 019) 4 490 (1 995) 1 000 010 410 (1 043) 1490 (2 035) 5 670 (1 444) 1 370 1 0 (1 673) 1770 (1 803) O 030 (310) 3 4.00 (1 650) 2070 (301) 60 (3 800) 160 1 670 .20 I 190 Inder of all form products 100 196 1 IST ·Food Consamption and Natrition Tho most important problom Isutil] the improve ment of food supplies. Vory little is known of tho dlot of the African farmer so auch of which come from plantairs and other vild plants that 80 barocorded but It Is oortalnly ofton very pro arlou. Blany purto of the region iro ilablo to periodio drooghtı and faminet entailing u In Tanguaylk. last year tho oxponaire purchase and transport of mapplies by the government. If the harvest is short thero is ofton a hungry gap before the apring Auh of wild plants and oven after good harvest the umo gap ofton oecun bocando of tho ebeence of stongo fuokties. In general, por apat food applies appear to hero Incroured since before the mar Tho mall not oxport of cereul has decroured altboagh pero duction increased and in 1952 and 1053 thorogion was actually a not importor Not exports of magar here also falon. During and since the war thoro have been very rapid increase in per espat sugar conuenmption in almost all parts of Africa. The per copat cupply of groundouts and ollabo appear to haro Inotcured considerably There Improvements in food supplies are of course bered on a very boy prowar lovoL. Tho bargo Incorso la sugar consumption would not haro boon poolblo but for the oxtromely low lovels that proralled before the war llach of tho improvo ment in food sapplier hos undoubtedly boen in the moro dovelpod Union of Sonth Afrien und It is likely that much of the reut has gono to tho rolatively prosperous producon of cocos and min oral. Purthermoro improvomont. In the quality of the diet ero us argent us improvements in quan tity and there is no ondence that much has been schlovod in this direction. Improvement of diote in Afra facer many obstacles in particular tho difficulties of livestock farming in many parts of tho region and tho poriletonco of tribal habits and projudices TARLA 41 Anda Prom AXD Lom or 8CLEOTCD COYODITIES OODITT 1g AV Uto Iyorur IN 1000KS (reliminart) TARN metro Gro Esporte Total coronte Suger Groundnut (olloquimalont) Groundnut oli Palm lernels and oil (oil equivalent) Pulm oil 1 230 770 1 470 60 130 13 201 20 1 240 430 170 73 388 1 200 700 100 67 308 360 180 390 30 462 114 488 520 100 Coco Cotire Cotton (Hint) Sun Tool (clean basis) of which Union of South Africt 1 1903 188 120 148 GO (45) 210 00 (63) (00) (05) Groe Imports Total coreale Sagar TRO 170 1 080 400 230 1 3.50 720 Index of all farm producto: Grow Erports Orow Imports 100 100 116 137 130 172 116 In the period trou oparts are oret 46 H tou 95 ·promoted in the French territories where relianco On export arop is Fory pronounced In the devel opment plan for the Belgian Congo gront omphe ale to placed on the Intarul market Any rubatantial Inorouse in food production in volvos drawing on what is at preront the rubeist on00 rootor Farmon in the hinterland are often almost completely out off from the root of the coun try hero little incentive to produce for sale and thus mako e nogligiblo contribution to tho scono my If thoy an bo Ilnkod with tho rost of the conomy by marketing facilities and by transport and if adequato storage aan bo provided for their produco thoir increased incomes - stimolato demand for ] the products of the coonomy Tho problam is to tum tho subelstenco farmer Into . podalist producer of food for thospedalist pro ducort of oxporta. Increased production in tho prosent rabalstonoo woctor hus ita dengen of courto and clowo attontion must bo paid to such toobnioal factory u tho a coloration of oroslon. the rest of the sonomy The procent dtuation la much that ofton ho can export only hbs labor Roads sro requlrod to knk the hintorland with the moro dovolopod erou bared on the export of urloaltunl end mineral products, so that it be oomea profitablo to produce a furplus of food стор for sale For omplo much of the food at prou ont importod for the Gold Court coco. farmer could u li recognized in the dovelopment plan, be prodgood in the territory's own hinterland if transport faolltio vero provided. The Quallty of Production The Improvement of Transport The remarkablo orpandon of Afna 1 osports In tho post ifty youn hu gone hand in hand with tho dorolopment of transport and this is stin tho culontial beals for futuro progrea. Tho acon mulation of stocks of groundnuts at Kano in Nigo- Ha l only ono inatanco of the congestion of rall my and port faollition that in froqnont at peak marketing periodu. Most dovelopment plans rocog nize thle nood by loosting tho bergoat proportion of resources to transport and coraldorable Improve ronto have already been made in Afrious porte and railways thongh often at . slower nato than wu originally hopod. Truduport improromonts aro aloo tontial for the integration of the rublatonoo producer with Increased competition in world markets maken farther attention to quality imporative. Much hus already boon achloved by the price polidon of tho Darkoting Boards in the Butuh administer od territories and by co-operativo organisations abowhere In Nigeria the production of "Special Grado palm oil Incrowned from ono percent of total markoting in 1050 to 80 percent in 1903. Novor thelow tho yield and quality of the produco of West Afria. wild oll palmos tro atill oonalderably bohind the Fur Eestoru plantation Industry Voch progree boxpostod from tho dlatribution of improved rulotles of trods and seedlingo in most territorien. In Madagascar for Inmplo old coffoo troos ero being roplacod by modlings of the robote variety distribatod from and groet lucrous in yleldo ero ox pocted. Io maty Ouso perts uod dlounu tako immenso tol In spito of tho intensivo oredication aum poign, rollen shoot in all a worlow problom in tbo Bestom Province of tho Gold Coast und womo porta of Nigorie Damago from capuide and black pod rot alo groatly roduce the cooox harvest Ta 40 AFRICA PLOPUOTION OF SILEOTIP COXXODITIS CoorwODITY I 18 voru 112 ATRO 1111/13 100H (propery) Wbcat of worsh French Wortb Africa Barley of which Innob North Ana 3 4.0 (608) 1 300 (1 268) 1 000 (2019) 400 (1 083) 1 080 940 440 2.00 (100) 1 400 (3 399) 5 070 (14) 1 170 3 400 (3 073) 1770 (1 603) 6 820 (3 109) 1680 1 480 of throh Union of Bouth Afne Rkce (paddy) Sugar (raw) Groundnuts (oil oqurulent) Indo of ott lar products (1 902) O 030 (360) 9 200 1 800 814 100 18 157 ·Food Consumption and Nutrition The most important problom in stil tho improve ment of food mpplier. Very little is known of tho diet of tho African farmer so much of which comes from plantains and other will plants that go anrecorded but It It certainly ofton very procrioul Many parts of the region are lleblo to periodio droughts and famines entailing us in Tanganyik. Last your the exposito purchase and trumport of mupplies by tho government II tho harrest in abort there is often a hungry op boforo tho spring flush of wild plants and oven after good harteet tbo uma gap often occur boonoto of tho abronce of storago facilities In general, per apat food suppler appeur to haro increured since before the war The small Dot export of cereals has decreased alt bough pro duction Increased and in 1882 and 1863 the region was actually not importor Net orports of magar hero tko fallon. Diring and unce tho wu thero have boon Yory rapid increanta In per caput sugar consumption in almost all parts of Africu. Tho por caput supply of groundnuts and oil to appears to hero increased considerably Theto improvement. In food supplies 1ro of couro based on . very low prower lovel Tho large increases in sugar consumption would not hero boen poolblo but for the oxtremely low lovels that provailed boforo the war Vuch of the improTo ment in food supplies hat undoubtedly been in the moto doveloped Union of South Afrien und it is likely that much of tho rost has gone to tho rolatirely prosporow producort of rocon and min onake. Furthermoro Improvements in the quality of the diet are as argent u improrements in quan tity and there is no evidence that much her boen uchloved in this direction. Improvement of diots in Afria faces many obstacles in particular tho dimiloulties of restock farming in many parts of the region and tho ponistence of tribal habits und projudices TALE 41 Aruca, Eurom, AXD LOITO OT SKLZOTED COXCODITI OoOODITY 104# ATELS 1110 Tor 11/13 18H prodotory) T rat nario in 1 240 Grow Esports Total errouls Bhupar Groundnuta (oil equivalent). Groundnut oil Palm komols and oil (ol oqul alont) Pulm ou 1 470 600 700 1 230 770 1 100 700 200 87 118 180 170 72 D38 311 302 243 180 300 370 Cocos Cotter 463 400 2433 620 114 Cotton (llnt) BI Wool (clean beris) of which Unlon or Nouth Afrien 130 16.9 210 100 203 81 (50) 20 210 60 (15) 60 (05) Crou Importe Total coral 8ur 700 770 1 080 400 1 150 1 3.0 720 Inder of all fans prodwest Grou Erports Grow Imports 100 100 110 130 178 770 In this the the import med mer 40 Stra. 95

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·Chapter IV REVIEW AND OUTLOOK BY COMMODITIES

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·Chapter TV REVIEW AND OUTLOOK BY COMMODITIES WHEAT Supplies and Trade Tho striking advance in wheat production in 1952/03 Tu maintained Ln 1053[04 como declino in the major exporting countries being almost Completely offoot by incrous in other countries Owing to the large stock ballt up in the provlow your in tho four major exporting countries avail able supplies in 1083/84 greatly exceeded tho rodacod Import roquirements. Stockar in there wuntries on 1 July 1954 weto expected to total 40 million ton compared with 34 million tona your oarlier and an average of 19 million tons in the years 1948-52. Tho incrouro in stocb hu takon placo largely in the United States and Canada and la primarily the root of their higa production in recent year and partly of womo shift in import demand to non dolar wourten World beat shipments in 1802/03 at 20.1 million too wore italkir by 2.2 milhon tomu, or eight percent than in the preceding year and in 1853/01 doclined further by nearly 10 percent boing tentatively stimated at 2 million tone shipments from the United States and Canada boworer were only 13 million tons compared with 22 million toru in 1951/52 and thoir July stocla increased over these two year by 26 mil lion tom. Those in the United Stata bare trebled while those of Canada havo more than doublod The proportion of the total world Import requiremente supplied by tho trd dollar oxporting countries, which roxo to 78 to 80 percent in 1951/02 und 1052/03 mainly owing to the reduced osport capacity of Argentine in these yean fell bolom 60 percent in 1853/84 when Argentinas osporta recovered quito substantially Australla onable to maintain its prorious rolatively high rate of exports tn 1063/64 The remaining oxporten hevo medo u steady if slow drance in thoir osporta which in 1853/84 aro prortaionally estimet od to have to chod 4.0 million tons or 18 porcent of the world totul This remains lower in absolute and relativo torms than in the thirtie. In 2051/62 and 1052/03 tho U.B.B.R and Eastern Earopean countries a group were the male suppliers follow ed by Franco North Africa and Turkey In 1853/ 1934 there with the addition of Sweden, WeTO again tho meln suppliers among tho minor exporten. Europe whow import demand hu boon rather stablo in recent yarn at about 13 to 14 millon tona depito continuow improvement in domostlo productlon, achlored a sharp adrnco in ite 1063 wheat crops and reduced its imports by ten per conto Notably good production w obtained in TAIL. 41 WHEAT PRODUOT10X (ভাত 131 TO 193t 102 Vol wirke i 0 0 OD 0 Four roafor sporting countrieri 18 European countria. Aua (excl Ching) Lato America (cl. Argentina) Other 16 26 20.8 $1 O A 3 JOO 20 15 3 61 1 6 ) 10 2 1 #4 34 3 238 10 16 16 3 16 1 17 0 10 WOLD TOTAL (exel V&A RI and China) *113.8 117 2 10 120.5 104 111 Cauda, United Astey arretto, ott 1131-41 rt for Grude and the lated otata nthe areng protectia for the year in IDADE low ovet the text of the trpe drenght. 1971 ad IL Autre, Bem, Dar, The German Erol, Gretet Irel Italy Labour Xeberkande, Xerry Portia, free weden, twitserland butted Kordona, faruri.

·Tamu 13 Vur UD YUT FLOUD Econy JULT Jun Coumr 1915- 10 po IHIAS 1150 151 1951 1155/80 1101 te) Tin metre tou platnu 48 10 6 83 Canada United State Argentina Austilu. 61 10 1 18 33 13 0 08 71 58 31 10 29 08 28 31 Total countries Lt 01 Do 259 8 10 0 Othorn 81 31 01 00 03 IO 0 of hioh: Fronoh North Africa Franco Turkey Swodon V.8.8.A. and Fastern Europo 08 06 01 01 13 O 3 05 0 0 01 11 03 11 08 08 OD 07 10 WORLD TOTAL 17 8 3 27 283 Yol The followipe atmotion rate here bure tured in converthy tour to beat culot1 Arts and Adetrus. TO CdA TLIX i United States 11.3% other countrto S% nyarw1bclude aporta mader Low United data forele aid promo appete to territories and power, but arou de sport of our made from Canada bent imported for min la bood Inolodin uport from U.S.B.R.md countries within the form or bit, but exchdin tnt within the proop. None or modelo Tab 4 Wur WD WUT Flour IXTOTI July Jon Cour Ins 10th 1140 11A/B1 1151/53 1981/03 11536 Carol) Inho Are free, whest arriniai DO II 144 Il 9 13 7 II 3 07 07 88 13 47 18 1 13 07 EUROPE? of which Germany (outern) Italy United Kingdom ATA of which India Japan Or CONTINET of which Bril 10 86 80 1 7 01 11 lo 41 17 is 07 I 7 31 IO II 14 14 18 WORLD TOTAL 10 38 199 23 NO brohud og imperts of other to the Betlet orbi Tal der ay Indle And Pulau Not anul Italy whore anly • hmitod Import of durom wheat W nocemury in logoularis (a heavily deflett country in the proriont year) Greoco the Unit od Kingdoon and Sweden, the last named on porting robotanttal quantitie. Spalo alone oring to a long drought barrested significantly mall натор Domestlo food grain cope in Anio vero klo generally better but importa la 1003/54 woro only slightly lowor than in the provious your ow ing to the continuation for pert of the year of Palatan . excoptlana) importa following its pour 1853 crop and to tho oxtra Japanese toqulromant creatod by reduced whent and rice crop. Indle howorer nu able to cut down its imports nato rally following the improvement in its domestio food grain crop in the last two souroa. 100 ·Turn 6. BEAT ExTTXATOD BOTOX I JOLY EX DE FOUR LOR POTIXO COoxtir na Vatted Arce Aut. st Н. Totat prile trke (o 1 191 19 137 140 183 SLO 98 34 17 1011 38 A 1919 1019 1050 1961 195 1053 1054 (prel.) 83 84 11 o 10 8 70 18 3 38 03 74 114 17 30 1. 48 17 0 49 D Ruard on opin AA, and toutes of the UP Depert at of Arttoni od PAO to come Dr, of om Prion, au cut relate to 1 Juty and cont 1 D- Phes LAN on 1 Jaly Ibeladink oo trgutrecut 1 tbe portod Trolling at tbe betinal ftbe coun. tre repertit erup Teen bota the bot I buy il.. 1 Avrut tur Camiod I Deret for artists and Aartnula Prices and Marketing Developments With the entry into opentlon in August 1953 of the renowed International Wheat Agreement (TIA) -ith increased maximum and minimuma prices ales rere Initially made at prior higher than thome ruling under the provious contract, But thero we declino in na buequent month and by Jago 1854 tho quotation for Canadian Mo I Northern was equivalent to US $1 75 camparod with $2.05 in ourly August 1053 tho madman of the Dow prico mngo. Thero vw bo steady declino in the price of wheat exported outpldo the Agroemont and over most of the year Canada and Australia were charging idential prices for crport wadau within and outaldo the NYA Icept for certain grader. Slace carly December 1953 the United States also hu pat on who cortain quantities for emport outside the Agrtement et tho me prices as thomo for IYA Aleu Tho ap between the prices of non-doller Don My wheet (0.8 Argentina) and dolar whest elmo di minlabed furtber during 1933 during most of 1953/61 Thest of duferent origina mu being qua ted at • laisty uniforza lete) after allowance is mad for quality differentiala Bales of went fortaing part of trade agreements were I BRZO instances atid made at higher level than ordinary tructions but worme all abo occurred in these for early Juno 184 for Valted States wheat as measured by Chicago quotations for newest fu turn howoror Xoro practically tho Amou. roer earlier though 16 porcent lower than in June 1052. On the other hand domestle prices In general continued to bo dotermined mainly by national marketing atingements and are still largely in molated from the forces at work in esport markets Among the orporting countrie Canada alone oper ates * markoting bohone under which pulcer to tho domostio consumor ure tho umo u thon for orport and the rotums to wheat growon are dotar mined by the coceipts frora mlos domestic and crport though the bulk of tho wheat la markotid through the official marketing agonoy In Australle alto under the rooently expired marketing mchomto growen have been rocolving the proceeds from salos but the prico for domcatio males has been fixed by legislation and a deduction mado from esport proceeds for payment into a stabiliration fand intended to implement . guanunteed minimum in year of low prices. The renowal of the arrangements du nom under discamion. In almost all other countna horrover support pro gTu are preotised loroving government pey ments or como form of price malatenance In the United Statet tbo wheat producer may ei ther market his whent commercially or dioporo of it under the support program to the govom mont at . nto equivalont to DO percent of perity Oror the past two yean tho commorclal police has tended to fill below the rapport price epocially fn periode of horny farin Martotings and large quantity has come quently moved Into govornment boldings. Thle hus llmited the supplier of wheat anikhlo in commercial markets and tonded in time to strengthen the market price By the end of the 1053/51 Peron, nearly all the United State auty-oner bold by tho Com modity Credit Corporation (Con the gorom went agency which operates the farm support progrun. United States prleen hevo consequently been Armaer than those in other oxporting countries, though they are weakened at the end rith ima pouring non of the 103 crop The market prices Dow ruling are signifiantly aboro crport lorebs so that we mado poder tbe INYA require the proslalon by the goternment of . tuboldy whích by early Juno mounted to over 50 cents per bushel Baler of CCT holding out ildo the NVA are not made at AfTeement prices to a limited oxtent while some special ales against lemporter cumandas aro belag medo under the tolltary avi and nthem The decline in price, u peted by Canadian do I larther, by 8 June 1854 Tu 12 percent compared with July 2013 und 16 percent comper ed with Jals 1059 (non IWTA alea). Argentine mles were being made at prices 18 percent orier then la the prestons yeur Companblo igurt 101 ·AGURE XII Monthly Avenge Prices of Grain July 1952 June 1954 Wheat (Cuh prices In USA and Canada) U.SI/aunt to 120 U..Urk tou 120 110 100 100 90 10 O 70 70 40+ 60 5 A Cu No. 1 CW Ambe Dunn. U.S. Herd Wurt 2 ku aktycCurda Ne 1 Manitol, WA D U S. Ker Wux 2 Cap. I Can No. 1 Hub, IWAP IWA MDL Wheat? (chf prices, Northwestern Europe) 110 110 H 100 100 0 FO G 70 70 с H And COM NO 1 M, WA Canda No. 1 Metoh, IWA O U... Hard Win I WA U Heri Wint 2 OWA 1 WAJ Arre Coarse Gralost (alf prices, Northwestern Europe) 110 110 100 O 8 TO 70 99 9 : N o 43 リケ Oct. ART Oxt. Ape Oa hu 1952 Oct. La 171 1154 1732 1933 1151 L ATTEN Ilty Can Berity ley M. 1 o Arruds Mon. P US Mub, Mo. 2 Yara N In Lurity wort amb tu iter bort Wil Port Art de In ko at ash price for Clu!! nert de WA nie WettrolThe the Rua UN, IWA ab, but cont have to work in fra Dne Wala te ndri Naryottal ·In Argentina the price to prolucer has re maided at 50 pesos pret quintal equivalent to US $100 per ton, considerably more than the re cent returns on export aki calculated at oficial rate of exchange Export Ales by France and Turkey are umilarly mado et prices below thone paid to their producen. Among importing countries the outstanding recent marketing derelopment bas been the restoru tlon of free trading In grain in the United King dom and the ro-opening of the London and Liv erpool grain markets. Domestic wheat produ cera -11 continuo to receiro a guaranteed price for the whoat they market deflolenoy payments being medo to them by the goTernment to cover tho difference between the open market price and the standard guaranteed price. Prices to pro ducer in otbor European countries are still to largo ortent supported by governments and in roveral cases are now aboro the price of imported wboat The International Wheat Agreement now cor en mallor proportion of world trade. The total guaranteed males and purchases owing to the son participation of the United Kingdom and the withdrawal boforo ratification of Italy and Sweden, amounts to only 100 million tons com pered with 18 8 million tore in the last year of tho prorloos Agreoment. This quantityba lew than hell the current volume of world trdo in what but actual transactions under the Agreement are mbstantially amader than the foll guaranteed amount, Ale in the first eleven months of the 1933/64 Agroomont year totaling only six million tonn. rent crops In India, a better stock position in Japan and generally increzred rice topplies Asia. import requirements are likely to decline Thus largo orche rapplier ll continuo to orenhedor tho market in 1851/55 Preward on prices will continue and while the policier of esporting countries have hitherto prevented the largo accu mulations of stocks from exerting their fall of fects on murkete the problems of financing and storage may induce o Iporting countric to adopt more competitive selling policies and to make greater uit of special dispoul meuures, such u ulet against importers currencier or on other special terms. Such tendencies were becoming moro apparent at the end of the 1053/B4 year Yot owing to the relatively stablo demand for wheat and anuming the maintenance of recent production tronde in Importing countries there poems Bttlo prospect of increu in commercial import demand large enough to effect . Ognifi ant worldng down of stock.. The further curtail ment in acreage to be applied to the 105.5 crop lo the United States may chock farther accumula tion there and len faronblo RODJ may roverno the present increasing trend in stocke, Alean while sapphes are likely to continue to be very ample for at least the coming to him COARSE GRAINS Supplies and Trade Outlook With the enforcement of attuage restnetions and marketing quota the United States sheat crop of 1954/55 will lomme. Der than tboto of re cent en but the eady estimates indicate that theso mostrar may not succeed in reducing out pat to the quantity required to meet domestic needs and exporta at current levels. The city Over in mid 1933 may thu show a further inceur tbough not on the sale of the previous two yeun. Sapplica in Canada la 1954/55 despite come fall in the bett urte are again likely to be very ample while Argentina and Australia are abo in . podtion to continge exports at least at their recent mato for some time European production may not prore qalte u largo u luat years, bat import demand la not lels to show more than Limited Increixe. With ample roere from re Supplies of couro gruine in 1063/84 were gen cally adequate with crops again at a high level and with increured stocki arried over from tho perlow your Trade appeen to baro been no larger in volumo then in 1032/63 and prices de clined furthor Tho mupplies remaining at the clove of the year wero larger than at the opening Production in tho countries crporting feed grains was slightly below the high lovel of the preceding year owing to reduction in the United States maizo crop and in the Canadlan Top of barley and oats. Total supplier however were somewhat larger than those arailable in 1952/03 owing to come increure in opening stocks Tho Argentine matto crop (hervested in April Jiny 1053) na materially larger than the prorious crop and the 1803 production of barley and outs compared well with prowar areriges eren though It nu below the bumper crops of the previous year With for exceptions European countries obtained larger crops than in the preceding year This vu due to improved maire crop specially 103 ·TAU 40 COARA Gm PopUOTTON1 IND 103 10 Tento 111 1110 1131 1157 13 din metrta na 1280 IMO 1H 8 1207 117 6 39 8 Four major exporting countries 18 European countries Latin America (10! Argentina) Ante (ozol China) Othort, 0107 7 353 10 8 314 19 146 13 0 30 1 106 13 8 29 D $34 14 0 41 40. 400 38 410 World Torac (orol. U 8.A R. und China) 241 0 91 90 5 2028 286 3 of which : Barloy Oute JADE 3.5 5 408 1143 304 46 9 1198 488 120 0 03 40 111 0 40 3 49 1 1.7 D 47 1 47 6 IN 3 Parley at balu, murto and morbums. Curade, Valted 8tato Artintip end true 16-1 arorer for Canada and United States. in Yagoslovla and Italy and an incrouro in berloy The latter crop is Dov grown in larger imoonte, mainly at a result of improved ylelds the United Kingdom Franco and Denmark accounting for mach of tho Incroako wbich compared with 1934 1938 is oquivalent to over 30 percent. Although tho production of oats mu about tho came u in 1962/63 tho declining tandency of thla crop appoon to be continuing Imports of couro grains into Europo which in rocopt you havo aocounted for about 70 percent of world trado wore larger in 1063/64 than in the proceding your dapito the improved indigenous production. The increw w doo mainly to Larger quentities taken by the United King dom, in the form of Argentino maize and Cana dlan and Iraqi barley This incrou may be due in part to the puroheros made by the govern mont in properation for tho docontrol of trado partly to tho tormination of food rationing and partly to the trend of Increasing restock popu Letion Total oxports of carte gruns In 1803/04 provolonally owtimated at 12.8 million too, word about the umo u those of the procoding year Argentina after two yours of Indifferent cropa, obtained a Largor malko crop and orcellent cop of berloy and outs and thoro Increased were ro flected in larger exporte, The United States Canada and the remaining exporters, honorer did not export a much w in the procoding your Pricos in gonoral continued to doclino In 1803 but the dochino ww love stoep than in 1962 and the final months of 1033 and the early month TAL 47 CUADRI GRAIX Euro (JULY-JUWE) 1000 S4 1934R-1010 ATINO 1019/H 1110/51 191/51 1931 CotIY Tota Total Total Total Tota El Come Witcher La Coarn | Your Coarne Welcome Wat Coarne ADO Pruld MUM ITUD i etrie in O BY 7 31 1 11 I On 06) 06 1 0 1 Argentina Australia 0 0 05 0 g 87 11 0 1 31 18 03 Oo 08 37) United States OB 11 18) 19 SC 31 17 BO 7 40 10 81 Total 4 countric 17 40 99 8P 11 20 00 07 19 Otben HOLD TOTAL 10 T 14 41 11 1 10 ! 12 % 11. Harlot , dan worth to a morte Greimine trebt ei tartres La the Borkt wbit Itapt to the rear pested Arcade Chitae - None OT dle 104 ·TAJLE 48 COABE Gram Iwort: (JULY-JOYL) 17H Cottar 1112-12 ATCELTO 1010 11.50/01 103181 1051/ On retrict 89 70 PA 70 DO Europe of whloh Belgloo Chormany Weatern) Netherland United Kingdom 13 10 10 18 18 08 11 10 09 10 20 10 06 16 21 10 07 OD 18 01 03 0 00 OD 07 07 06 03 of which India Japan Other WORLD TOTAL 13 12 13 Io 11 0 107 131 124 Il 8 harlor, out, ale mogu nastu. Led Lahas import of creatie Interlat Orbit except for the previr period. Creodhar CAL x meble Outlook of 1851 obowod homo strengthening the fall was heut marknd in the car of United Stata mare No 2 Yelow at Chicago averaging $1 61 per ba ahol in Bay 1064 compared with $1.57 in January 1984 and 31 63 in diay 1083. Argentino mabo which had lost most of its premium over United States maizo by the beginning of 1863 did not divergo rabotantly from tho Lettor up to tho carly rummer of 1894 though forman positions were being quoted in May at a dlgnificant diacount Tho ateady price of United States meiro is partly explained by the much greater une of the loan peran gnum mado by growen in 1963/64 Tho malo holdings of the Commodity Credit Corporation on 31 llarch 1854 Inchading both its own Inventory and the quantity pledged for loan amounted to orer 20 moftlíon tout agelset 13 million tons Four earlier United States feed typo barley stood at $1 24 10 January 1963 fell to $1 02 In July and my $I 04 to January 1934 euing alightly in the follow ing months. Canadian barley on the otbet bend, wu 88 Canadian cento in April 1854 compared orth $1 to in January 1953 Argentine and Ingi burkey showed rets similar movemente to Camdian but their pet decreure nu sunte what larger Onts abo declined Canadian do: being 73 Canadian cents per basbel in April 1854 compared with 81 eenta in Jedders 1953 The most striking fall u bow by e Cane dian do: reaching 89 cento per boabel la aps? 1054 compared with $1 62 in Jarpers 192. If the 1994 growing conson does not provo tin fatorable applies of course gralds in 1861/55 will be ample Stooks of food graine remaining in the United Statet at the end of the 1953/64 year we exported to be cabetantially larger than 1 year before while the output of tho 1051 crope taken from . romowhat larger area de opito tbo reetrotions upplied to the commartin) moabzo Anth, Il proto larger than that of 1053 In Canada, the carry-oter of barloy and osts will be about the amo u in tho pre ceiling year while tho wea nom in 1854 blittle larger than in provious year. The maizo crop In Argoatins harrested in April/blay 1954 showed . further improvement though it mu #sob stantlally short of promur production Probabile import requlrements appear to be adequately to Texed by prospectiro erport mupplies, but supplies, though tonding to Inorreno alightly should not dovelop beton rrplus character in tho near futare apocially if pig production cipiod. In the United States, w is now anticipated and livestock product loa clushere continues to grow RICE The sellers market for slet which had premailed almost continuoully since the end of the war hus ended. Production has again reen noticeably World trdo borerer hus contracted sharply 100 ·mainly owing to the redoood Imports of India and Indoneum Stock documulated in South East Ads and osport prioc begun to bo lowered thero towards the ond of 1863 Importo Ill probably oxpand In 1054 but this may prove to be a tempo rary fontoro unlood price rolationships chango to mako rico moro attractive to consumons. Current Situation B[oro dice ru harvested in 1953/54 than in any provlons your nearly oight porcont more then in 1852/63 which had itself been a rocord your A very sharp fall in Japan, drop wu outweighed of the former mein Importer lewer lingness to bay Largor home grom supplies Hero twed pertly to rodaco imports, whillo consumption ru still rostrotod by rationing to romo countrie. Farthermore importen continued to regard tho price of other ooreeks u moro advantageous then those of rice The sherpeut fala in rice importe ovou rod in India and Indonela ouch of which bought in 1953 helf • million tons low abroad than in tho proceding year Amongut exporter, the most effooted by these changes wu Burma whom shipments declined by 300 000 ton i oby almost one-quarter Other countries which had TAD 10 Ria (PADDY) PRODUCTIOX Coumy 101.38 іліп 1146 1941-50 erent 1151 1031 114 (pool) The market 34 3 211 1 11 8 30 3 18 11 5 8 LI 11 0 31 6 II 8 11.3 41 3 13 9 10.3 114 O1 43 60 04 OO Indus Paldetan. Japan Indanode: Java and Ladun Other Llande Burme Amoutod Btate of Laos, Cambodie und Viet Nam Thailand. Otbor Arin. 70 3 88 0. S8 08 50 68 10 7 73 10 5 88 60 11 6 15 3 82 19 0 11 5 100 B4O 12 O 98 1 ICO Total Ada (orol. China mala land) Othor oontinents 04 94 111 11 3 12 3 WORLD TOTAL (arol Eestom Europo China and U 8.8.R.) 1009 040 105 3 103 110 110.5 1036 ener Uwcat. Naubte by the incround quantities roaped in most other rico-growing countries. Relatively high price for rice and vanou forma of watenco provided by govornmonta lod to widespread orpanion of tho area wow to rico and weather conditions word genonly fuyonable As in the previous year the groutest Incrouro in production wu reglatered by Indle whero a threo percent larger actoago ylelded A crop greater by 20 percent Paulatan also her Fattod ın oxcellent crop Among tbo osport. Ing countries Thailand and the Unitod States reaped rooord oop, while BumaHeo pro duction fell short of that of the prorious year Whilo moro ce nu thw grown low dee mus mored ACTUV frontiers in 10.03 than in Ibu2 and util ler than in 1931 This brot due to edy lack of sopplies stellable for export lat to sotto rico available for export suffered somewhat loo, partly bocau Bruall and Egypt which had bocomo Important esporton In rocent yeun had only raficient rice for homo neode u. roralt of their relatively poor 1852/53 crops Exports thus contractod whilo production et panded As connequence stoela begun to secu mulate in some countries particularly whero rellers wore alow In adapting the proven to tho changed merket oonditions. The bulk of tbero stoclo ha in South East Agle where they are estimatod to hero boon momo het in oncou of one million tons (In terms of millod rice) at the ond of 1933 . very small quantity in rolation to world consumption (about ono percent) but signifiant in proportion to present ennul world trdo (about one quarter). 106 ·TABLO 1OALD TRADE DX INLD RICE 1111 11 Terce 1118 ATT 1131 1932 imel 1931 torreut Cor12T Is port ID porte FI Mert Im Kto Ex port IDforts EL porty Ez POM port porta pott. ports HU rtrielle 10 H+ 16 1 + 02 1 3 01 0 1 соо 0: 07 0.1 07 06 Borma Thailand dvoclated Statet of Leon Cambodus An Viet um United States Italy Chida Indis Japan LaLara (Fed.) Indonesia. Other Ada Other Art 3 02 07 0.3 01 03 0.2 17 05 0 3 08 09 08 05 0 to 12 0.8 10 04 08 08 00 0. 11 0.8 03 10 09 10 0. 03 06 08 10 03 07 03 08 O + 02 00 09 03 0.3 0 02 WORLD TOTAL SO 83 40 38 80 AB +7 40 +6 Total port ert xport of dachtto rlee toa narpio productos tocatrer la addition bout 20 0 Gram to cert rice here and entben 440 tote a poatwar Tren vero Iported by Kiporto countries. Imports ere bet onte. With moro rice to well and faced by a meller import demand some of the chlof exporter efter long renntance reduced their prices during the second half of 1953 thus rotering the apard tendency which had provalled for over three yeun. The Dew record crop of the United States started to rell at 30 percent below old crop prices bat there was como vubecquent recovery to level about 25 percent below the maximum - which we maintained from the lato autumn of 1053 to the late spring of 1034 when Zenith lo ! kui selling at $207 per metrlo ton, Lob. Now Orleana. On Torernment to government contracts the Burmese authonties agreed to reduce their prices by about 20 percent provided buyen committed themselves for soteral geen abead The basic quality (Small 201 Speciala 49 percent braker) is accordingly price on rach contracts at £10 (5140) per ton for 1031 149 ($134) for 1055 und 146 ($120) for IDJO unu that alther comtry will import in future at the expected 1034 rte Ther. in natants plenty of rope for an increase in world importa which In 1953 vero well belox half the premur zvorage. Por put cotuumption of nicou probably all lems than it ru 18 year ago and popalation in increasing the recent lovol of nice prices honorer apart from stimulating widespread cxpansion in the cultivation of rice baro deflect ed womo demand torude other cereals and tourds mot Torx While la pruu day rice constituted abont nine tentha of the cereal importa of the main Aslan coreal importing countries this pro portion 24 only one-third in 1952 and fell till further in 1063 (Figuro XII) A rough comperloon of prowar import valdo units with those in 1953 for some of the main im porting countries of Aula thon that Import price of rico tose almoft eight times while the arer ago for vbest #beat flour and barley rose leta than fourfold. Colemment allocation of resour ctn for the purchase of diferent forolon cereals are pot determined solely by relativo price movements and the letter an be meuured only very approxi mately Nevertheleu bomo interent may attach to the contrat (Table bl) of the rive in the relative price of Heo with the fall in its share of total cernal imports. The treu outoldo Asla bere aloo greatly redoc ed their riee importe Unters this tendeney la reteted in an intreuse in total demand for cereals, or bs . shift in polce relationshipe which will belt Outlook World trade lo dice will probably recoter dur Ing 1834 from the low level of 1053 but may not reach fire million tons the lovel of 1031 And 18. Thì recovery soul horoter be mainis due to the loport demand of two coun India and Japan In both exceptional factor at operating this Tu in Japan she fery poorleector cod in India the new finan dia kettlement with Burms. It soukl Le Hiby to 107 ·FIGURE XIII World Imports of Rka and Net Imports of Rice and Other Grains in Shx Far Eastern Countries 1934-38 Avenge, 1947 53 Annual AL HT nco moro attractivo to important thoso natic hleb hare striron to expand the production oxportablo mopplies may ancounter incraving a ficulties in markoting thoir rica SUGAR 10 А Thoro mero two major dovalopments of La touching significance in tho world ruger coonon dertag 1043 Surplomes doveloped outaldo tho de lar eroe for the fint time in postwar yon. A tbough then surpluses were comparatively ama the change from previous youn, when Cube castle practically tho total world surplos fue importa and its effoota began to be felt in many countrie Socond an International Sugar Agreement ti primary objootiyo of which is to stabilize worl nagar prices nu condadod in August 1803 B Prodaction Lul o < 1/14 147 114 115 1931 192 193 there Wurth ti o nca Nut Inredoxbergh into the whor Laman curs Numeruore hote that her le cu Ouer My Mch who T artet , orwe sets, TX Aulas com Corholde en la of Muller, Rebu C Net Since 1934-18 including the far reun word production has increased by an arenge of 27 percant a your The restriction of the Ouban croj by 21 million tons In 1962/03 u compared wit] the provioon your cunod o fall in world production by 1.2 million top or 34 percent In 1803/04 homover world production roto nipo percent to 36.8 million tons (centrifugal sugar only new naloo) oven though the Cuban crop u further Teatrietor Tho most significant production dovelopment during tho current your mus a sharp Increur in producties la bot importing countries and Inox porting countries enjoying profated pooltion in import martota. Production during 1963/64 In not importing countries ou 21 percent higher than In 1851/02 und 29 percont bigborba proferred mupply countries On the other band production in dotter exporting countries wu 19 porcent lower although production wu tho Amo u in 1081/02 in orparting countries 4 . whole In part these doveloponenta roprosent a return to the proper pattern, ben production in dollar countries figured much less prominontly in tho world rogaur economy than doning 1840-62 loro la inrolrod, borovoz Blgnifiant L tbo groat oxpansion to production in Botbb Commonwealth countries artern Europes ootpat of sovet million tons mus throo million tons higher than prom ind almost 400.000 too suor Europos total 1934-38 prodaction Voch of tho oxpansion in importing and Commonwealth countrier mu undertaken for the declared object of furtbering TAILI 51 RELATIV> Lurr Prics IOTED or RIC AXD Orar CELAL CONDARD w Poror TIONS or TOTAL CELAL Inom DX BILEOTUD Amar Coon Ricloports u porcenta for total are porta 3 103108 svohn 1950 1981 1961 1930 on 148 138 115 RO 31 Ratio 1 lsport aut rahaa (pen 4 100) If the Unded by reminder for beat beat v ud berley Borat edes puruen for diferent mother. 108 ·TABLE 5 ROGAR PRODUCTION In 1953/54 ITIN 1934 1933 Tent 1911911151/1031|11317: 1151 init - 160 1951/54 - 1 Vibkar mine a rent TORLD TOTAL (including V SR. RL anul Cune) 30 S 1:17 10.5 38 130 (10.2) 80 17 1 131 76 19.3 (112) 138 1 101 106 (146) Set importing comotrien lot oxporting countries (incl. Cuba) Tet xporting countries (exol Cuba) Preferred countries BUAT French Portuguese Dollar oxporting countries 18 5 (134) 53 (39) 129 (7) (12) (33) (17) (35) (15) (01) (48) (20) 103 (16) (107) (138) 109 (01) (183) (100) 81 82 8 70 the oipanalon of cosmoption. Indocd ln not importing and self-mufficient countries . close cor relation has orated in tho postwr years ben tween expansion of domestio production and of Consumption, notwithstanding the fact that do moxically produced sugar is frequently more I penuire than imported. Trade and Prict International Indo in 1003 roechod tho higheat figaro on record with exporto almost 1.8 mil lion ton higher than in the previous year But the rive in esports took place low to expand current concuraption than to build up tocla in Oto countries erpecially in the United Kingdom in preparation for do-rathooing Early in 1951 Dalted Kingdom stocb mero million tons higher than in 1053 and tot stoca rere muficant for about nino montba bratloped congumption. There nu s moto than a decllno in world oxports toward the end of the year doring the Arzt few months of 1054 ports, especially from free mukot exporting countries, more mbetan tially bower than during the corresponding period of the prorloos eur At its December mecting the International Sugar Council decided to reduce bagio quotus embodied in the Agee meat b5 15 percent. A fortber fire percent redaction - or the maximum permuhle rodue tion ulder the Agreement nu maro in Slay 1034 and ot ber rettricting meunits Fere ale con widered Prozent indication point to . derline of at kust 10 million toos, OT iboat 15 percent in total international Inde during 1804 in spite of the nation trado agreements and specialy the Commonwealth Sugar Agroement which will com pol the Unitod Kingdom and other importing countries to purchase largor quantities than their stock portion justifier Undor primar marketing conditiom mupply conditions weh u developed at the end of 1953 would bere produced a vory sharp docmo in pol con, and a diorganization of world markets. That this did not happen was due largely to regulation of ex porte by Cabe end to tho Interrutional Sugar Agreement which went into effect at the turn of the year Prom an Immolate market stand point tho Cuban decreo establlahing quotes for otporto contributed maro to stability than the International Suger Agrooment. Whilo Cubs » Initial 1954 quote under the International Bogar Agreement wu 1912,500 tons (of which 371 000 toor weto to be released oodor Article 8 only after 31 August) « decide digned by the Prend dont of Cube on 10 Fobruary 1934 octablighed "Inittel world free quota at 721 000 metric tons - plos almost 51 000 metric tons asriod over from tho 1983 crop On the other hand, it is probably reasonablo to Antuno that vithout the International Bogar Agroo ment tho Coban authorities tomld have found it moch moro di cult If only for internal pohtical, social and popamo reasons, to impose drustlo rettriction of tho exporta quota, and might not baro carod to do so for reasons of general sogar police strategy Tho minlmom Agreement freo market prico of 3.25 U 8 venta . pound fo.b. Culon port is bora than the prodaction cont in all but fow boet ragar prodacing countries oren after the cost or transport of the new mogur to local rein erler is added. Lodced, the minimum price pro 109 ·TABLE 2 STUAK ETTDIATED CONTIOX (DX RAY VALOT) Haios 1911-30 Arno 1919 11.50 1151 Ijt (pred) Vullen metri in 87 80 94 10 08 19 10 4 3. 97 71 87 04 91 Europo USBRI Torth and Central Ambertos South Ameria Asia Atrios Ooonia 96 11 14 18 20 31 30 JO 16 40 37 08 08 18 10 16 06 17 07 08 07 07 TOTAL 24 1 19 8 32 ) 31. 34 3 Ecuato monta merlotu diffionitiat oven to some cano suger orporting countner signatories to the agreement. It la powlble that avon Cuba rould experlance dif floulties were it not for the higher price received for sagar exported to the United States In 103 Cube received about 6.32 cents pound on exports to tho Unltod States of 2.8 million tone u cam pared with the average of 341 ponta for the 30 million tons bought by other countries. Consumption Caamumption of centrifugal rogar has contin rod to increase Rising national income and in como countries lower prices specially in robation to other foods hero stimulatod toady rico In dermand for refinod sagar The greatest per centago increare since 1034-38 h taken place In Afdce South America and Anta. In all these low consumption arau tho live in consumer Income availablo for orpenditure has been of particular Importance in facilitating increured rogur demand. to be expected in Central and South Amerian ooantio cxcept Cuba Howover tho largest proportionato Increase orer tho Dort deado / probably bo in sala and in Afria whoro por caput consumption to still relatively low AJ though the greatest fncreases in prodaction ero likely to bo in roll-villdent and not importing countries which will reduce tho porcentage contri bation of imports to total world captumption, it is not likely that international tndo wll diminlah significantly from tho erorago of the put fow yaan anlew general ocopomio conditiona dotariorato greatly The postwar trend to higher comumption, a suming so fundamental change in oonomio con ditfon, will continue. Much I howoter de pond on dovelopmonts In Asia La Europe and Latin America farther consumption incroukt aro likely to be at a lower rato than in provlow your Asla and Afria remain the great potential ougar markets. Dorelopments lo individual Aftan and Ardian countries havo demonstratod that candi tions are rlpo for a major os punton in consumption. In tho Belglen Congo for crumplo con romptlan roro frame yourly average of 2,300 tone in 1934-38 to 20,500 tono In 1952/53 (per apot from 0.2 kg to 12 kg) in the threo British Eut African territories consumption in 1952 u 109 000 tons as compared with 32 000 pronar – and it is estimated that in 1000 consumption will be about 200 000 ton. However futare demand for suger will depend firstly on genenl economio tronch and focondly on the availability of domestlo rupplier or from low cost exporting countries pur chuse from which do not create stow erchango problems Outlook A fundamental change in the trends oither of tho production, price or coruvamption noems an likely While production in 2004,00 1. likely to be lower than in the previous year especialy in Europe where the favorawo weather condition of the previous rear are not rocuring the long term outbook to for a riang production treod onla agricultural policies of gorettimento undergo fondamental changes Increased beet tigar production moes occur in Europe and the United Stata Further production increuten ato 110 ·LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS Meat Vest production in 1853 mas mabutantially larger than year before in North America Orania und Wertem Enrope Nearly all coon trict of thet areas proluced moro the largest Increases were in the United States Auxtralia and Denmark. In Argentina, production in 10.09 appean to haro been maintained at the 1959 lereL TAJL 34 IXDEX \UDERS or SIKAT TRODUO- TION DE SELOTTID REGIONS Rion 1950 1551 1934 1013 120 Western Europe Vorth America South America Oceani 97 13 114 107 104 1 113 116 111 102 114 1 114 112 Bert, real pt outton lanh and out meth Any 1914-18 LV ta on au 1815 19 AOT dall Decod Por Land to Douth pens ending * Ben tember of year at tad 48 000 tons against 64000 tons a year before Becento of langor domestic production, Belgium Franco Italy and Switsorland importol lens Lirestock prices in the Northern Hemispheto countres in 1053 hero generally bolow tho 102 figures major orceptions being the United King dom for all livestock and North America for pige. Tho most severo docline was that of cattlo prices In North America. Avengo pricas receivel by United Stator farmon for beoſ cattlo in JOS MOTO one third belor 1012 and the government in order to wint in the stabilization of the market purchased about 113 000 tony of meat represent ing tho oquiralont of 885 000 head of low grado cattle Tho beef thus acquired u dlstributed domoptically to eligible outlets or exported under the foreign aid program. Pig poicct on the other hand, Foro 20 percent abovo 1052 lovels both in Canade and the United Stater. An opred moto ment in plg pricen bocamo evident in the second half of 1953 alto in komo European countnes rach u Watern Germany and Belgium. In the Southern Komiophore uvestock prices continued to rlso donng 1953 but the IncTook in meat prices from Oceania to the United Kingdom for tho 1063/64 BOLBON was much less than in proplous year and no change from 1953 took place in the price for moat to bo shipped from Argentína to the United Kingdom in the fint helt of 100-1 Cold storago holding of mouts in the United States during the put year vero much anallor then in 1052 mainly bocou of heavy declino in stocks of pig meat Tho situation remained unchanged during the first months of 1001 and total stocks at tho end of April 1051 were 20 per oent low than a year beforo In Canada anul Aus tralla klo stock of meats in tho fint months of thin your were low then they had boen in the beginning of 1903 Berring unfavorable weather meat proluction is likely to expand further during the current your bat ut . lower rate than in 10:53 In North Amerian rith attle number at record lovel, beof production will again be larger the other hand pig numbers at the beginning of 1031 wero ten percent low than . year beforo. Al though oving to very feroralle plg meat and feel price ntion an opred movement in plg pro dactlon bue started this year marketings will Le maller than ln 103 until tho coming fall und the Increure In total meat prolactlon jo lorth Aperice All therefore be small In Oceania tbo Increix may also be small as larger production in Nex Zealand will be largely offset by * declino Tho world meat tndo which in the period 1918- 1052 had been on the averago ex percent less than boforo tbo mur increased sharply in 1053 and the prewar volamo in termen of career weight equi valent) wu slightly or ceeded Imports of ment oncept anned, Into the United Kingdom in the pust seur were 30 percent higher than in the preceding yeur Leof accounting for the major part of the increuse. Compared with parrur tho 1833 rolurno mu 323 000 toru lem but this deficit mu partly covered by much greater Imports of canned maat.. In mid 1863 the U.S.B.R Legan to purchase Beat on world markets and by slay 103 is estimated to have bought about 70 000 tons Ar gentina, Uruguar Denmark und Franco are the main soppler. In tho United States due to redaced prdaction and high prices for pige im ports of pigment incroured heavily but not rati dently to offret a reduction in beef Imports. Total imports including cummed meats therefore de clped from the high 1912 level A exports rose by nearly 30 percent the net Import balance mu ·bo infiaenced by the abundance of contro grin. As to the Southern Homusphere no further incre of any substantial siro are to be orpected. Recent Degotiations botween the United Kingdom and Australie concerning the procedure to bo adopted aftor the change from bulk puroheros to private trading rocultod in an agreement andor which the United Kingdom will guarantee for tho 1031/05 muon, minimumo polcos which will be 05 percent of prevent returns for beef und 03 porcent for lamb and first quality motton. The minimum poceo for lower gnda of matton are copadorably low in Australia. In Europe prodaction should in creato in general although in pomno countries the expansion of plg moet production will be shocked by the deolmo of pig number daring 1853 Tho Increased rapply and the lower prices of fodder grains havo not yet boon fully reflected in the supply of pigmest. This is in part attnbot. ablo to the usual timo-lag and to the price rapport policies for grain in some countries which hero resulted in largo stocks of courro guids By 1050 the reuniting increase in pig and other moat pro daction sbould be rabotantiel International trado b not espected to show any substantial change from tho high lovel roached in 1953 Smallor orportable supplies in Oceania may result in a slight doureuso la United Kingdom los porta Whilla tho rolamo of exports from Den mark may romain priotically unchanged fur ther incrouto In shipmonts from Argentina aan bo oxpootod In July 1054 mont rationing came to an ond in tho United Kingdom and privato trade in hrestock and mont both home-produced and im portod, is now being rostorod Only for bacon tho Ministry of Food will continue to not u Bolo importer Meat consumption in the Unitod King dom is still below the prowar level and It remains to bo soon to what ortont the end of rationing will offoot futuro importa Tho ertont to which the U.B.8.R. contingos to import most L of consider ablo importance for world trade Pricos of Irotock in the Northern Hemisphero may bo maro stablo in 1954/88 than in the pust Komeon, although pig prices and marketing may Dalry Products and Eggs The current oltuation of dairy products is char notorized by generally high level of production which in many Instances uro abovo 1953 and by . palderablo soumolation of stocki in omno countries notably in the Unito Statou. Milk production inctoured strongly in the past your partly becaun of favonblo prices. During 1962/03 for fostande producer price for milk Tero tho highest in rooont your la poærly al European countries and in the Unito Stato, high pries rapports favored milk prodootion The orpansion of produotian bus continued but in pomo countrie prodacor prices have been below the corresponding 1903 loveb. ilk production in 1963 oxpandod considerably more than ffold milk consumption and the major part of tho Inorouso went into butter and choero. Fuld milk Comption, which to the major outlet for milk, increased only slightly during IDOS and per capat consumption runga inod TALKI FAT ETO TI 8ELEOTED COUNTS All tyre, aroep aard Canned OUTLY 1134 H nuo 1941 118 111-14 nh 1951 Turn In 193 70 194 75 147 0:8 14 61 Argentina Uruginy Australla low Zealand Canada Unitod Btutos Denmark Franco Ireland, Rop of lotherlands 400 73 344 107 84 57 117 3 45 40 00 179 68 124 24 40 02 440 10 08 57 11 DO 10 8 0 48 14 70 14 10 11 UD 10 241 10 10 43 76 318 15 74 17 10 10 44 TOTAL 1 310 1 170 1 341 1 410 316 Prentar und bei dem toate order Te your Tenge 1131 40 typet, mort en 113 ·more or leren unchanged In one countries, 06 the United Kingdom Denmark the Mother banda and Sweden, per empat contumption hus declined in recent yan. While in the majority of countries, retail prices of Auid mik in 1853 remained virtually anchanged or werd oren allghtly higher they doclined four petent in tho United States where the damnrd trend has continged in the current yeur In many countries incrou Ing attontion is boing giren to tho posibilities of otpunding fluid milk corrumption. Among milk products tho greetart Increase woro in battor Total butter production in the major producing countries la 1053 ru eleven percent higher than a year cartier but still about iro percent below prom Indo Incrouod also and importa into the United Kingdom wero nino percent aboro 1052 but 200 000 ton laps then the avorage in the period 1031-38 The o Ipanalon of trade in 10.33 we strongly influenced by U-8.8.R. purchases, which in the recond half of 1863 totaled about 40 000 tone mainly from tho Nothor landı, Denmark, Sweden, Now Zealand and Argentina. Owing to high domestio production Imports into Belglam vero only half of the 1862 volume and importe into estern Germany and Switzerland are also declining capat consumption mu olght percent aboro pro The U.B.B.R purchand 4 000 tons of cheese from the Netherlands betreon lust autung and April 1054 In contrut to buttor and chocse len hole milk wu used for manufacturo of preserved milk bat much moro driod kim milk wu producod in 1053 than a year boforo bocause of marked in Cours in prodaction in tho Unitod States tho United Kingdom and the Notharlandı. Tho vol Omo of trado in preservod milk incround only alightly Boorneo of larger mupplios piece of datry pro duce during 1063/84 tended to declino major escoption. boing the United Kingdom contract does for batter and choose from Oceania, and for batter from Danmark. Tho 1053 averago price for batter from Denmark to markets other then the United Kingdom wu at tho previous Tour's lorel In the United States, the fall of paices mus chockod by the provalling support lovola. As produotion ax cooded domand tho United State Gov omment bus been buying under the oxlating price rapport programa, large quantities of butter cheeto and dried klm milk. In spito of efforts to dupone of accumulated stocla government holding have grow. Inventories of tho Com modity Credit Corporation at tho ond of March 1954 wore IBO 000 tons of batter 148 000 tons of chocs and 239 000 tons of dried sklm milk against 43 000 tons of butter 18 000 too. of chocs and 50 000 tome of dried klm milk a your boforo. For the your beginning 1 April 1001 tho peloo support lovel for dalry produco ww rodaood from 90 to 78 percent of parlty rocalting in roduction of about 13 percent of tho mppart pricom for butter and checto Tho govornment cortion on number of operation to dispose of morplures of dairy prodacta, ach u males against payment in importan currence (Section 300 of tho Mutual Socurity Act 1963) ulan ot oonconclonal prices, free distribution to donatio Institutions, spo cial distribution programa for lor incomo group and donations to welfare agencies for froo ditubution to needy peoplo abroad. At the beginning of Play 1054 the United State Department of Agriculturo announced that it would sell its forplw butter stocka for export at world market prices which are considerably below tbo domestic lored, and it would domestically during the first three weels of May about two-thirds of its stock of dded a milk for the slivostock food. In tho Netherlande alto purchase undor tbo palce support program led to a considerable acco TARL 8. IXDEX NOU or I PRODUCTION TX RELLOT.D Reorom Rabox 1010 1151 1111 1153 Prero Western Europe North Ameria! Boath Arporla Octum 104 113 140 104 107 112 140 105 108 112 168 113 116 1KO 110 Malaly 1914-31 mer DE o 115-10 min er du tar metod the United States Prontation of our Tretrepoutremods endine Janet Tur et Total cbeth prodaction in 190 mu nearly nino percent above that of the preceding juar and 80 percent abort prepar In romo export ing countriet ech w Mommy and Sreden, und toward the end of the year in Denmark aloo, daranard trend la chette productioa beaamo trident Cheere trdo in 10.33 after dedine in 1032 muagala larger Particularly mounted were the increux in importa Into Western Germany ud Italy The United Kingdom abo imported Ten percent more As at the uno tlose do. moetlo production increased by 60 percent per 113 ·mulation of stocks which rached its pak luat fall, but since thon batter and cheer stocks have been disposed of almost entirely and dnod km milk stoclo word reduced by about two-thirds. At the beginning of the oturant your butter stock. werd larger than a your beforo in Western Germany and Canada and comiderablo Increato in checto stoel ooowrod in Switserland. In New Zealand buttor stock during the current meson varo let then in 1952/03 Europoun ogs production made satisfactory progrou in 1863 Esports expanded and tho Netherlands Denmark, and Poland accounted for nearly the ontire incrouro Wastonni Ger miny which in rocant Found has been the largest importor of sholl oggs increuadd its im porta in 1803 by more than one fifth. Unitod King dom Imports of shell ogge word ten porcent larger and itæ imports of ogg products were more than doubled owing to larger rocolpta from China Prvuto imports of shell oggs into the Unitod Kingdom from the sterling area rete permitted in Jannary and from OEEO countries in April 1054 In the United Stator and Caruda egg prodao tion Incroarod kughtly Australian production In the curront Holson is ostimmtod to be at about the name lovel u in the previous ano North Amería oxported loom In 1963 tbo roduction in exports from Canada being nearly 40 percent Ege prloor in Europe were ganendly bolow 1902 owing to uplo soppliou. In the United Statos and Canada on the other hand prices were con alderably aboro 1052 Cold storego holding of eggs in the United States danng 1963 and at the beginning of the curront your haro boon much maller than in 1062 The dairy Industries of the main produaing coun tries may have to fuco Lacrousing difficultlo danng the reason 1054/63 copocially in high cost arou If demand does not catch up with production Numbons of milk cow Increased generally during 1953 and a vior of steadily growing milk yiolds per cow al production in the current years of pected to bo voll above 1963 proridod that gras ing conditions romain normal. A. In the past year production of buttor may increuro more then that of cheese. Exportablo supplier of botter in Oceania may be tomowhat smaller owing mainly to decreased production in Now Zealand in the current soumon. Import domand for buttor will bo rodacod to certain extent because of groetor domestic pro duction in Belgium France Wantorn Germany and Switrerland. Tho major footon on whloh butter trado will depend are tho dovelopments in the United Kingdom after tho ond of ratloning of butter and choor In Blay 1054 and the extent to which the U.B.A.R. will continue to pornhard buttor on world marketa. Owing to tho romorul of subaldian butter and chocmo prices in the United Kingdom havo Increased. In vlow of tho palco ditforenco and of the firm podtion which margarino TAL07 Error OT BUTTER, CHRZAL, CUYDDIOD AND ETAFOLATED MILK AND ADLI POWDER, BAJOTED COUNTIIN Putta Contudod Taponta min MK potrder Cattar 1036 1911 1945 1934 1938 1130 1133 1031 1033 I91 1130 1934 1.50 uto Throw wirto to 11 60 140 4 18 15 15 64 IB 1 20 1 17 50 100 Dennart Franco Ireland Rep. of Italy otherlands Tommy Sweden Buitzorland Canela United Statea Arfattaa Autali New Zealand 25-11ūnai Januão ao 85-58 แง! eal หง๒ ܘܘܘ ܐ 3, ܐܫܣ8 ܨܚ {{{{S}|| An] 1 Buluun = ("151198 42 18 15 8 100 140 16 57 Totat 50.- 403 315 3 1044 Ixlodie op Porder - Yow of Dorthe Xot ملطعه ۲ ب ·Medium Producer has gained in the rootmar period it is uncertain whether butter consumption will dire Efforts by the United States to dupoon of its batter stocks could Influenco considerably both the pattern and rolome of trado lo particular change on bo ospected la ciporta of cheese and preserved milk. Larger hon numben higher yields and emplo feed rappllow combined with good domand point to further increase in egg production and trado during 1004 REVIEW OF WORLD FISHERIES The 1063 world catch of fah, inclading crustaceans and mollub lastimated to have remained at approximately tho 1062 level of 26 milion tons Statistia are not arallable for a large part of the world, flah production but there and statistical data covering the production of botuten 17 and 18 million motric tons which are sufficient to show the trends Figures for 1038 and for the yean rinco 1947 aro giren in Anner Tablo III. Trelre countries with annual catches of be treon 300 000 and 800 000 motrio ton each aro conndered to fall within the group of medium poo ducers. The aggregato annual production of all tho countno in this group has lately been about flro million motrio tons or about 20 percent of the world total. Figares are avallable for nine of those countries, which between them produced annually botween 3D and 4 4 million motric tons during tho period 1051 to 1053 Production at 850 000 tons in the Union of South Africa (Incluing South West Africa) romain od at the record lovel roarhod in 1952 after the very rapid postwar dovelopment of tho pilchard fish ries. The Icelandio catch of 410 000 tons in 10.13 mu third more than that in 10:39 and also an improvemont on 1932 but It we still below the immediato postwar peak. Denmark (343 000 tonn) the Netherlands (343 000 tona) the Philippines (306 000 tona) Portugal (302,000 tone) and Spain (640 000 tone) again increased their atches in 1053 and they are now at produc tlon lerols well aboro the 1038 mark. Tentorn Germany has robabilitated Ita Baherim and in 1853 tho aatoh approximatoly equalled that of 1938 (T70 000 tons). Tho 1063 Franoh productlon of 6.20 000 tom also is nour tho 1038 lovel but although tho 1053 atoh mu greator than that of tho preceding your It was below the pontow peek roached in 1951 To comparablo statistics are available for the other countries in this group- India Indoneals and Koron. Mafor Producers Selected Smaller Prodacers The annual aggregato production of fish by flvo Loafor fahing countries for which statistics are available in Japan, the United States (including All) Norwuy tho United Kingdom and Canada (indading Newfoundland) ha period between 10 un II milion rootilo tona daring tho period 1031 to 1053 and account for about 10 percoat of the world. total. In 1053 tho ontput of those firo countries amountod to about 300 000 tonn ler than in 7032 An important contribnting factor being a decline in the Norwegian production of cod. United States output in 1953 ut about 300 000 metrlo tomu leta tban It: 19.50 total of 2 65 million metric tone, mainly because of tho continued abortege of California pilchardı. In Canada there wu i slight Increu us result of the salmon abundance The United Kingdom fisherien remaalne stabilited at leveh reached donng the curly 1850 .. The Japaney atch showed a light drop to 4,577 000 tona from 1,019 000 ton. in 1052 For two other major producer, the USSR. and China Atbatics are pot arallable bot It bo estimated that they each produce over tro millon Detic tomt ytur Taken toget ber all wion major prodacen match orer 15 million metric toru . yter or lorer hall the world total Seventeen omaller producing countries whore individual output does not surpan 200 000 tons per your here between them an aggregate annual production of about 2 million metric tons account Ing for about olght porcent of total world production Argentina, tho Bolgian Congo Finland Greece Hong Kong Malaya Sweden, Turkey and Thailand bare malatelord their postwar increases in production, which are however mainly of local elgni ficance Belglam tbe Fuoroo Laland. and Italy buro aloo kept up the lorel of their output except for beiwional iuctuations. Important increased bure been achlernd by Angole Baril Chilo and French Sorocco though in votne curs thert m. lerelling off in 10:53 The Angolan long terra os panokon 1 rolated to tbo dovelopment of tho osh meal industry and the French Morsecan crpanlon to tho hrdino cunding indutry ·Utilzation Whilo availablo statistia ro inadequato to determine gradul changes in utilination, it soon that during 1953 tho goneral postuar trends con tinued Particularly in Canada and Yoxfoundland during the period 1851 to 1953 ostohas of cod haddock, hako and other figh Foro divorted from salted flah production to the outpat of fresh and frozen Alleta. On the other hand the inability of Iceland to land fresh flsh in the United Kingdom ho tondod to encourago e roturn to cured floh production. In \orway tho output of ultod vod u reduced by lower atcha dao to . scarcity of fish on the grounds The group of species which includea berring, ardines and anchorle accounts for tho sharp Increases in the atohes of many countries whoso fuheries hard doveloped rapidly during portier yearTho lacroused catches in thero pountries hevo Lergely been otilized for meal and on produo tion and also for anning The world output of them prodacts whorerer reduced by a sharp drop in California plchard landingo in 1852 und 19.33 Traditional prodacen of alted herring baro muintalnod their output in 1963 Tank, macharel, and bonitos are wed largely for tho production of aunned fuh. A dechno in United States catches did not adversely affoct the output of the omninoria - they wero able to Import thoir requirements of fresh and troren tona from Japan of the Norwegian herring ontoh, of the landing on the west coast of North Ameria of menhaden landing on the Atlantic reaboard of the United States, and of pilchards in South Africa is utilized for this purpose in the United Kingdom moto herring ero aloo boing mod for tho manufacture of fish meal and oil beauto of tho diliculties in the traditional alted herring markets of Central Europe. Danmark is orpanding its production of moul and oil, principally from incroured hardng atehes Canned herring and endines are an important prodnet in . number of countries. In Franco Portugal and French Bororoo canaries have been in competition for supplies with the fresh floh market. The French production for local consumptlon showed an increas. In 1953 The Morocoun cannerles hero stopped ap thoir output daring the postwar your but tho pouk lovol wu not maintained in 18.2 and 1853 becaure of merkot Ing difficulties. Increased attention to now being pale to by prodaota and to rodaction in conto. As already mentionod tho Callfornia pilchard Industry ru almout complotely inaotiro in 1953 and us a result tho United State has imported Inortased quantities of aanned pllahand products from South Afra and Japan Erports of maltod herring from the Nethedando reachod pootwer record of 50,000 motilo tom in 1953 egalost nearly 42,000 in 1952 mainly doo to large wlow to tho UR&R. Nothodlands oxport to West om Germany and Belgium Laxembourg remained at approximately tho 1962 level, but thomo to Poland und Crochoulovaldo doclined. In 1063 alted bassing osports from Normy followed approximately the level and patterns proralling in 1062. In the Unitod Kingdom fresh herring und Hpper les appour to have doormurod. Herring, Sardines, Anchovia, etc About . quarter of total world catches constat of fish of tho Clupeiform spocies. Tho 1063 horring euron in Korny mu ertremely good depito the late start of winter fabing and outcally stormy wather The 1931 Intor kuon, with match of 1 080 000 metric tons bet. rooord Herring atches in Iceland mera moderate in 1853 but the otherlands bad Increased landings amount Ing to 1 700 motrio ton of fresh herring and 107 000 metde tom of ulted herring. In West en Germany Denmark, the Faeroes and France herring landings also increased during 1053 In lorth America the blennial off-cycle year mu to flected in maller landing in loine but those the Candian TTost Coast increured in spite of a strike early in the rar On the whole the 1913 horring reuron wu better than that of the preceding year The jur 1053 proved sonenalls utlofactory for fosh meal and oll, which are the most important outlets for berring and related specter Tho Lalk Cod, Bake, Haddock, etc In 1993 tho Aprwoglan ood fiaberles production fell to 70 000 tons us compared with 123 000 En 1853 and 149 000 in 1901 und in th, first half of 18 the important Lofoten ood fuherd rooorded en oten aller catch thon tho unatbfactory Jovel of 1903 Improved Norwegian atches of habe haddock, bank and fford cod and Finmark cod, made it possibło bowoser to incrown tho qman tities proceded both for the dorpestio market and for the orport trade u freob and frozen prodacts and stockfish. The Icelandlo catch of cod shored . sught decaur in 183 Bamo of the atch wu dirarted to Central European markets and higher proportion than pretlonały ww wood 110 ·in the manufacture of stockih principally for osport In Canada and particularly la Nor foundland the ralucard catch of cod reflected a reduction in mupplies but abo loret price for the end prodacty. The general poetrar decline in walted cod production ru evident both in Canada and Franco in 10-53 hilo in the Firoo Islands • strike reduced the landings of cod and a shift from cod to borring fahing lato in the year loo contributed to tho reduction By contrust the produotion of alted cod in Portugal continues to increase and to replace importa. In genonl tho traditional salted cod murets of Europo baro beon importing laws of this produrt duo partly to largo carry-overy from the provious warn and partly to higher horoba of domostio production Tuna, Bonltos, and Mackerel The United States a major producor and con sumer of tune cipcrienced a failure of tho alla coro fishering off tho Tashington and Oregon posto and tho catch of the tuna clippers oper ating on off-thoro grourult of Central and Southera American countrier declined mainly bocattso of bed fishing conditions. The total 10-13 catch of tuna and bonitos amounted to 142 000 motno tons com pared with IB1 000 motrio tonu in 1082. This Californien tune canning Industry horroror Increused its pack of cunnod tune by obtaining Imports of fresh and frozon tuna from Japan to balance the docline in domoetlo landing Im porta of frogh end froran tuna into tho Unitod States of Amoria amounted in 1083 to 1 rooord figure of 43 100 tona comparod with 31,300 metrio tona in 1852 Domestlomupplies toro augmented by an increase in the importa of onnod tuna (capoially tune in brine) which reached a record figure in 1063 of 13 600 metric tons Landing at Californian can norien u well us imports to be canned show an. Inertam during the early part of 1004 If thb trend continges tho 1054 aanned pack might be a record In Europe tho bluefin and bacore landings word maintained on moro or lew the arorago lorola propelling during previous youn although a slight drop to 8,000 motrlo tont vu reglstored in the Norroglan catches of bluefin tane, which had grown to 11,500 motrio tons from 1051 to 1052 Salmon FATS, OILS AND OILSEEDS Bocano of an improvement in the four year evelo run for kockoye malmon and . favorable your for pink salmon, the total 1003 autch in Canada (Britah Columbia) produced tho largest pack of canned abmon lo recent years Tho rubatantial arty-over from tho 1052 almon pack would havo beon greater but for Inercard males, particularly to the United Kingdom and tho United States. loro attention is being glronto the Canadian domestic market where with the waistance of an advertising campaign, theto u good domand A pacooulon of poor runu of Alaskan pink abmon 1 reflected in a dorlino of the total United States walinon atob from about 170 000 motrio top in 1952 to 145 000 in 1863 und rodaction of the onnod pack of Alaskan pink to 62,000 motto tora, which is the lowest figure daco 1921 Mor mu this dochine offoot by tho peak of the pink salmon blonntal ran in Puget Sound of by in crowd atoha of rockoyo Salmon fahing in Alaus might bo restricted for conecrration reasons. The your IB3I will also be up of Cyrelo Fear for pink Almon in Puget Sound There we slow crpamalon in the Japanese canned momon ontput by means of mother thip Ospeditions to the Testem zono of the North Pacific but it is not expected that this development will contribete substantially to world mpples of canned woon. Data on the 1.8.8.R output of Almon are not available but the goal for 103 is reported to be 180 000 metric tons, of birb about 60 percent and to bo anght wround Kam tchatka Tho plan aboo provides that boat 35 percent of the total autch lato le canned Excluding the US.BR world poroduction of fata and alle (with butter in terms of fat content) is about 18 porcent larger than prowar TUL Incrouro fu slightly less than the rise in population. Horrerer the deficit in produotion per perwon La met offoct by a remarkablo factou unce promar la tho production and wo of relatively De substitutes for fat and producte. Tho outstanding examplo is synthetic detergents, which bere displaced large quantities of roep in the Unito Stata and Europe Lovels of consumption of fats and ole rary greatly in different parts of the rock Lange increase in consumption over prowar hero occurred in many areas whero con romption levels and relatively low In the Unit ed States and Westem Europo which are high loral areas total consumption per person, includ ing both food and non food wer in Ughtly low than befoto tho w 117 ·Many countries that woro major orpartan boforo the war Iko India and Argentina now connuno rubatantially more oils und fats then formerly od otport materially los llafor doclines In oxports from Asia and South America have been only partly offret by increases from the United States and Afria. World Indigenous orports in 1038 including whale oil from the Antarotlo arenzged 81 milioni motrio tons in torm of oll. Thou exports had fallen to 2.2 mmion metrio tons by 1946 but sto dlly rou to 87 million tons by 1951 This was the postmar ponk, tad It roflooted a robh bg importing comm tries to accomplato stools after the Korean arrab in mid 1080 Those inventories vero roduced in 1032 and exports in that year dealinod to 5 1 million tons In 1953 world ozporto recovered to about 54 million tona (Tablo 68) The increase in exports in 19.53 wu duo both to a rocovory in the domand of importing countries from the relatively dopremod borol of 1052 and to an abundance of exportablo topplies of contain fats an oil whłoh more than offret decline In supplies of other. The largest incroto in exports in 1063 wuono of about 200 000 motrio tone of tallow and grosses from the United States, Anothar lenge facroure ropulted from the uale in carly 1953 of substantial stool of Antarotlo whalo oll thet had been autod over from tho 1001/82 routon There we substantial incro in 1953 in Chinos orports of ollwood. uod olks potably voyboane groundoute, rename mod and their oila mainly in tho flot half of 1053. Ar gentino osports of linseod oll were expanded matorially by harry Hole from goremment stook. Thane Inorou more than offret docunes In production and exports of copra and cooonut oll from the Fur Fut and lard from tho Unitod States and in exports of groundnut oll and othor Items from India Price of fats oil and olsoeda in intarnational markets doolined substantially from spring 1951 TABLE 58 FAT, OLL AD OILAD, Woxu INDIACOUS EXTORTI IN TER OF OIL DY BRIOTY AND TY TTI IT 1938 1980 1151 1981 1033 (nrollmlpary) TAKK nutrke in By region Europe North Amerlo South America Africa Asus ороди Antarctic 495 167 ods 1 057 170 402 I 003 890 1 360 1 301 318 144 390 1 130 808 1 104 1 749 201 1 070 177 1 201 1 490 410 301 340 1 240 280 1 400 1 400 30 70 151 6 38 WORLD TYTAL. 6 ODO 8 881 5 002 3 410 150 By type 1 Butter fat cont nt Lard Liquid edible mk Hard olla Ithale and shouls Drying and rocellancon SOD 108 1 07 2 190 676 100 180 1 100 1 428 619 30 151 [ 2 818 3:21 $17 1 077 490 16 1 100 2 570 50 oila 700 001 046 30 WORLD TOTAL 0 000 5 581 5 O 6 410 Ixhudi maly udireto oleerd, und H prudd from todou matetele Tud 1DA Lester Luropeo u trh and the l..IL Ltdchade iz pod nr Tur Ercladine Luun terpt is 1111 Chi dy mourdogt hun cotton sid, oln ned in den od we ok, und 1 ml Talent of murde, posters on wed. pwed to Dowar w we mod Cheat coronat pula od pelakodelik. tatlow, Thus ud 0 .qanledt of copra tod palo Korpele The entire podretion of baleto the Antarctio maxted here sport. Aparat rod sub ln als Art mot dedin the end 70.100 tons het bed dated from 1051 Addeddet it to whom to stoc of Aptaroth w oil from the 1931 31 MOD that I got to 1933 Chirayed castor und tutol od ou aquilat of Used autorid 118 ·US1 H A 100 200 Ju. 100 150 ha, 100 FIGURE XIY Monthly Average Prices of Fats perront from the low point of April 10:52 to April and Olls in International Markets 1951 1954 1053 and an ulditional aix porcent to January 1051 Price moremontt of several of tho individual (Hewletke male) items, homoser more quito different from the gonorel trend oring to poculuities of tho respec tivo sopply altuations Price of liquid edible regolable oils (soft olls) from non-dollar potrete tended to rise moder ately from mid 1033 to spring 1034 largely retolt of llocline in cxport supplies. European production of rapereed wu down aburpis and or portable supplier of Fur Eastern groundnut oil woro mach maller than e year curlfor Horover large supplier of roft olba ucre nilable from the United States Commercial esporta of soybeans from tho United States in leto 1063 and early 1954 reached . now peak In addition, cubatantial 200 export maken of cottonword oil and groundnuto Woro medo by the United States Government from ito stock. In early 1984 United States cotton ced od *** being sold in International markets at a materially lo tror lovel than usual in rolation to other soft aih. World prodaction and exportablo mapplier of copra were rubatantially umaller in the first nino months of 1033 than a year earlior and prices of coconut oil and copra in International markets WITO materially higher Rulog prodaction and exports in lato 2053 and cany 1934 Foro roſorted in a sharp brook in prices of coconut oil and copro in Larch 1051 World palm oil production and oxports incteurd moderately in 1953 continuing the long term trend. Prices areragod slightly Lower than in 1089 Palm oil competes chieds mith moonut oll and molblo tallow Production of tallox and groures in the United States increased rubatantially in 1033 to . Dow pouk, while a continuation of the dovraud trend in uro in map wu only "lightly more than offret by en crpansion of other times notably in olyod inimal foede. Exports roue by moro than 30 percent. The price of allow *u oxceptionally low la carly 1953 but the heary «Iports led to Prince her the ** Lider Low declining stock and masto increuro in prices LUCort from the IN44 tela other in the latter half of the Gronn K1 4wy 131 17Ik The United Stata your Lot 1st 101 mit SA nm ul in tho principal world exporter of fredible allow Lot Forth ARCH b.IU.Lent. and greuse Cacourt al Surat ) We have crew the The price of land increased materially during LAN Artis Dr Nini JID. Mw York 1983 ani in early 1936 wu tan cicoptionally Ancy at 4th York ** NAMALUL Le rent high boral. Roduced Unted Stater production or lard, beginning in carly pring 1013 and an to «pring 1039. The gerietal trend rue then bood laertius in European demand in tho Letter part entely open until the beginning of 1054 of 18J3 rere tho principal rorom for the price weighted average of prices of the keten major Lacrture Prict of firmel all in luternational oils and fute charted in Figure in rose slout 20 markets in 1933 and early 1934 coatiquod their 119 10 H 400 100 400 100 LA lua. 1751 1494 1911 GO Les Coconut I Pus A 1 с D Toler a The ·FRESH FRUIT Long dooline mainly u a result of houry osport los from Argentine and United State govom mont stock Supplion of fate, oila and olboods in International markota hayo boon largor in 1904 then in 1989 Thoro havo boon mubstantial in CTO in opra prodaotion in the Philippines and Indoncale, and the 1963 drops of West Afron groundnute und Bloditerranean olivo Oil, which rouchod merteta mainly lo 1054 woro materially larger than a your curler In addition, lange seloo for osport hapo boon made from govormont stock of cotton tood and Lanood oil in tho Unltod States and In wood oil in Argentine World Import domend for fata and olla has romainod strong particularly from Europo and most prices in international markets doclined only moderatoly in the fint half of 1954 despite the relativoly heavy orport oppilaa. Prospects in mid 1954 indicatod that esport suppliou would remain amplo during the post twelvo montho Sabatantial Inoroused in United States production of royboane Unwood and lord wore oxpected, and it seemed probable that Far East omn copra prodoction would continuo above the lovel of . year oarlier Also govornmont stocks of linunood and cottonwood oile in tho Unito Stato word *lll largo Erport polider for those stock will have an important effoot on International markota. Hovoror balance becoing on wully unfavorable weather in the Northern Homi sphere in the rummer and fall or a dotortoration of the International political situation, tho out look in mid 1954 rue for a continuod downtrend in the general lovel of prces of fate, alls and of poods in international markets in the latter half of 1854 and ourly 1905 Production and Trade World production (excluding China und U.BAR) durlag 1051-53 carpered tho prower evengo by nearly 60 percent for oranges and tango Ines 40 percent for grapefruit mod about 36 porcent for other main fruits. Tho trend is clear ly apnardo duo to now plantings in rocent yeu und better cultivation practice. In particular many younger dtrus groro hard not yot reached full productivity and will add heerlly to production over the next five to ten years. World trudo hus not increased for any of the main fruta ta tho mamo proportion et production, though 1869 brought . remarkablo arpenakom, mainly for orange and for grapefruit. The or panlon of deciduon fruit produotlan in Europo has lod to . highor dogrdo of wolf-sufioncy and many countries orporting citrus frult and bananas hero malaod domantlo conoamption proportion Holy more than their oxports. In 1963 roditerranean countrio cxported 280 000 tons more oranges then in 1962. The United Stata and the Union of South Africa apo incroutod thoir oporte. Among osporten of appler only European countries na mod their ox porta. Tho European martet which abworb tho bulk of the orports of a fresh fruit orcopt be NADU, Inorouod its importa in 1953 try about 20 poroont over the prorious year and 25 percent aboro the pronar arengo A notable foutoro 4 tho increase in importa of arungou and bananu. Tho tbroo major importera aro Fance the United Kingdom and estarn Germany which togother took 14 million tons of Wortorn Europe, total ON TARLE Jos RAK FIUM WORLD TRODUCTION AND TRADI Production Tudo PETIT 1931 srerur 1959 1999 1931-50 o per dunt ui 10$JI ATER 1951 1051 1131-3 e por tor 1031-4 Then metrio do then notre fou n! 1 850 136 cl 119 11 ) I 810 2 450 1 810 Berans Onung and tantenne Lemn Onpefruit 1 100 180 0 0001 6 000 : 2007 8 Oc0 11 400 13 20 13 000 1 0-0 1 1 300 | 470 1 100 I O 1 6001 1 :00 6 10 8 3101 & 840 B 1801 2 000 1 410 3 000 ! AC 10: 7 1146 01 8 10 S 190 J. 110 140 Apotent Peany 1132 13:02 7101 120 40 176 090 1RU 100 $ 103 3 190 000 Forhodium AD L4 N tortion ti rohading de fruit Vot ULL 120 ·TAL 61 FAQ FRUTTO IMPORT INTO MATERN EUROPE hort 101.39 an 1931 1953 Import of 10 million tons Vatem Germany alone increand imports over 1032 by 120 W tors and the United Kingdom by 100 000 tons. European banans Imports increased 135 000 tonu of which 05 000 tonus represented Inceared imports into the United Kingdom reflecting the decontrol of banane importo in curly 1033 Unitod King dom imports at 285,000 tons horerer tro atill 40 000 ton below the proper avdrage Oringer and targurines Grapefruit Lemon 1 231 79 108 1 014 53 187 13 8.5 903 TOTAL Ono Fuor 1 039 1 802 TARLE NO. OLAYD AUD ArtLA Errasti DY Rralox * 183 7228 LTD 10 15 &T 191 1903 Banana Apolo Pean 671 101 776 40 140 011 480) 100 Thow wel te lewe 1 810 1 080 1300 TOTAL LOR Pautt 3 100 3 743 I 301 Oranges and tangerine of which : Joliterranean region United Stato South America Union of South Arden 1 201 100 1 70 307 31 150 100 30 100 720 Too Apple of which Wetem Europos United States and Can 391 110 348 13 08 70 Argentine and Chilo Aralls und Now Zat lanl fruit from Iruel. The Unitod States ha contin ued tho osport payment program delgoed to 6100ungo erporta of fronh and procoured ohnger and grapofrult as well as winter poers Moreover the United State Government has deoided to in clado fresh onungs and grapefruit and cannod grapefruit apricote and peaches in tho special export program for surplus commodities against payment in soft currencia. An allotmont of avo million dollar bu beon granted to the United Kingdom of which 2.5 million dollar la for citrom fralt. The general export aubidy la abo applied on then exporta. Spain and Ionel are also con timing thoir osport promotion programs Spain undor spoolel orchange rate lorael under e com binod system of direct export premium del apo diel orchango matan 108 101 Trade Policy Outlook All fresh fruit importa in the United Kingdom #ro now in tho hands of privato trade. However imports of apples and pean remained under restric thon for the first half of 1034 and the licensing of bananas hus been extended until 1 October 100 The open general licenc applias mainly to OEEO countries Imports from the storting area hart remained unrestricted and imports from dollar countries aro moder special Heepsing control Commooorralth muppliery to the British murtet are facing sharper competition than la put yan Tbo import dutles on radom borti cultonl products in the United Kingdom u from December 10.33 did not affeot the main fruit which are corted by the GATT tariff schodolet extended until 30 June 105 The liberalization of frait trdo among OEEC countries and entration of the Amo palley to cover for er tople German citrus import: from Spain, are among the main factors behind the npid increato in European trado. Estern Ea topo abo u Inceuing loports mainly of otras Tbo upward trond in fresh fruit consumption, together with more liberal Import polloy and furtber Improvement of the general oconomlo atu stion in romo of the main importing countrie may justify further expansion of produotlom in oxporting countries. The wido differences in Comption Jereb betweon countries and income groaps ruggert. Lengo unntified nood for fremh and procemod fruit The high rate of new plant- Ingo particularly in otros cx portlog countries Indiata a rapidorpetuloa orer the best fire to ton years and any docomlc rochtalon in importing countries would are great Hak to spocielizod oporten. Filling to ratch en agroomont with Voditemuan atror growing countHer regard ing now planting the Spanish Government to 121 ·TABLE 62. DRIED 1x PROTT, WOUD PRODUCTION AND EXron Tho - strioted now plantings from June 1053 Tero frost in February 1004 pey horretar hevo rodacod tho apacity of the Spanish fruit grove for the nort few yeart ITEN 1111 ITU 1151 1151 1981 1000 1113 11 X Aro 1 1031-J. DRIED VINE FRUIT AND WINE Dried Vine Fruit 41 426 407 164 208 491 100 0 100 D Roulos World production World asporta Curranto World productron Horld exporte 181 00 00 80 08 GO 67 0 Although the consumption of fresh and canned fruit u Incroulog la all countries tho dontirard trend in consumption of driod fralt which we alroudy noticeable during the Inter wer period has continued The total niin pack in 1853 remained practi cally tho Amo u In 1862 in spito of u doxTMHO in tho Unitod States pack from 283 000 tons to 202 000 ton. Thero war habstantial increased to production in Awtnlle, Turkey and Inn. Export of raloina in 1863 Incrouod slightly over last year w highor oxports from Australia and Greeco more than componmtod tho decrease in United State and Turkish exports Thore why an incrou In oxports of current from Grooco and Australia but the rolamo of oxports from Grooco is still below prow Compared with oxports in 1931-19 ran oxporte frun the United Stato, Australia and Grooco how marked in CTORHO whereas Turkish esports have been abstantially below tho prowar lovol during tho last throo pean. Before the war Turkish osports wore highly dependent on tho Carmen market for which Greece and Irun havo beon the main ruppliers in recent year, whillo Turkey • kocond market tho United Kingdom in 1062 and 1053 w supplied mainly from the United States and Antralle under the gorement bulk purchasing program Tho Lettor horroror Fu dicontinued on I Docember 1933 and since that dato importa into the United Kingdom hero been pormitted under open general licenco cxcept from the United States and cortain other countries mainly in the dollar aren The effects of this docontrolero Ilkely to become prident only gradually u the United Kingdom, at the beginning of the 1063/64 rearon had robutantial stock of nabin and our runts The size of these stoela to generally ati mated at around 60 000 tons hieh t equivalent to nearly 50 percent of the United Kingdom stor ago angual importa oror the put three yer The copectations which Turtoy und Gretet in particular had hered on the nor policy wtre dis. appointed when the United Kingdom announced the purchase of 2000 ton of California keedless nelons out of the 10 crop to be importod in the lato spring of 10054 Le after docontrol Tho gov ernment purchase of California nion wu no gotiated with the United States Government - In tho prerious two to threo yeart when tho Uni tod Kingdom took over the grouter part of tho surplas pool of the United States rating with mbatantlal rabaidien paid by tho United States Government with tho ancortainty about dovel opronts in the United Kingdom merket which 4000 unts for at least ono-third of total trado in theso commodities, tho gonoral marketing wito tion for rafine and curtants i nther anotable Other significant dovelopments in 1063 WOTO the Introduction by Tarkoy of osport subaidion for multani nlsins and tho extension for another year of tho United Kingdom Australian agreo ment to cott Australian oz ports of raidna and corrents. Asio 1052/53 un oxport payment program is maintained by the United State Govern ment for the 1053/84 pack of nuns to help movo the surplus into export markota. An important factor which may affoot Importa of Northern European countries in 1034 La tho mubotential roduction since November 1903 in freight nates for dried fruit from tho Bleditertenen, which may help to stimulato oxports of ruline and dried figs from Grooco and Turkey For dried frult from there countries the nutes buvo boon roduced from the oquinlent of 80.00 dollen . tan to 14 dollen. tor Prolgbt nutes from Australia to the United Kingdom to increased by 74 percent in early 19t Ayonige Import unit value for 1053 nista im ports into the Daltod Kingdom show the lowest anit nalue for United Stata rulou und, oota pared with tengo import ont pluts for the proru youn nalans show maller inclouretben other frult - frash or dat The Australian Dried Fruit Bourd has strongly objected to the recent docidon of the Amtralian 129 ·Agritulture Connell to increase the area under dried sine fraits further and tho Board has also crprewed its concern about the effects of the po heles of countries rabeldlzing rain exports which may sdrtikely affect the ele of Australian dried Yine fruits in the United Kingdom and Nor Zealand torld production of wine in 1918-10 3 about 18 million tont compared with promur averago of about 10.5 million tonu Artrige production In 1051-53 however about reached the prowar level The rapply situation in Frane (including Al geris) during 1952/63 and 103/04 is abown in Table of Leaving ont of consideration stocks heli by the trado tho rapplies are 01 4 million bectoll ter against 81.5 mmon in 1802/03 As the total commerdal outlet plu producen normal art oror to tho next season, to only about 78 million hectohton, the murplus is approximately 17 millon hectolitan Tho gotemmeat bas ordered voren milllon bootoliters to bo dlotilled but prices peld to prorlacons for theho quantities are much lower than the minimum price though the government takes u mbatantial lou in markoting the alcohol То financo the compulmory storage program, special credit facilitics baro bets granted. TALE 04 FCH TO BUITLID ITD 1952/53 1933/56 Wine In wine in recent years there has been a lock of balance between production and commercial demand in modo of the principal countries. Franco and Spain are still haring marketing difficultios, where Italy no longer has murplu. Italian consumption has rieen Readly during the last for your apd stocks at the beginning of tho 1850/34 Hawn werd generally considered lower than do onblo Tho solation of the wine problem is to bo wought primarily in the wino producing countries them relres International tade apons only every limited outlet for wine During the war conuluption decreased sharpis following the drop in production, but it has rinco gradually regained the prowar level in Italy How over French consumption, though increasing, la lower than before the war At least until last your consumption in Spain retained below the premar level and though production wu also suall er stock. laro accumulated. Grocco Portugal Argentina and Chillo on the other hand, haro had « higher per apat congumption in recent year than before the war Various remons have been given for the down Tard long term trond in consumption in tho prin cipal vide-growing countries during the last thirty year, including industrialization and proetara! changes in community Vifo (lower coormption in citier than in the country motoring sports, and larger supplies of non-alcoholic drink) Vites bretellr Stocka' At producer bold by trado 16 B 10 3 10 2 10 2 Production in Frnce in Algeria 12 3 30 D 18 3 Total BUTY 91 8 101 6 Trece ud Alme TARLE 03. Wenn PramuCTiON In Spain tbo 1853 supply is about 27 million bectoliters (including a DEITY Oet of about firo million hectoliten) but consumption to oxpected to absorb only 15 million hectollion and exports me and half milion hoctollten. Compulsory distilletlom li erpected to account for three mil llon hectoliten. The carry-orer at the end of the proton will, therefoto u in France, cxceed poco auried into the 1053/64 Retro Among tho mentores taken to stimulato counmption to an order to Includo rise in the price of practically all penu krved in restaurants, Cotar 1MIJI Tento 11 aru 1131-33 Antigo Tu utrke for 0204 9815 Frank Italy Arun French Yorth Africa Portal Other countries $ 181 4080 1 300 103 5 100 4 640 161 107 004 719 COFFEE 50*9 ID O TOTAL 11 490 18 on 19 30 Current Sitaation Coffee is one of the for agricultul commoties of which would rapples baro been substantially bebes the effective demand oren at the compars 1931 AT 123 ·TABLE S. Como PEODUCTION DE LADY A Coor 1931-36 &Tono 1140-51 Arung 141 1050 (pre) Thumtrio in Brezil Colorbla adoo Outomala El Salvador 1 46 251 66 0.9 04 1 125 344 88 OD 78 1178 3:90 72 XS od 015 00 TOTAL LATIK ALICA 117 1 601 10.30 1 03 15 103 110 French Afros Britbah Atria 177 71 TOTAL AFRICA 140 315 Indonarlo 124 14 80 TYORLD TOTAL 1 40 I 20 2 200 tively high price of 1963 In 1963 world produotion ww about three percent below provar and only slightly higher than la tho provlous your Prospeots for an expanded Brazilian pro daction in 1934 and 1055 woro destroyed by frost In tho nowly planted high yielding coffee arou in Purana In July 1903 with practicaly arheontod stock and continuing firm domand from Importing countries them oonditions lod to mrtvo in price Sinoo the per production has evergod below prowar lovala dowpute the larger population and Increasing buying power per caput. Duo to lower yields in Brud and mamo other mafor-onffor produaing countries in Latin America, the continent. oatput declined sHghtly as com pared with the prorlow your notwithstanding the orceptiamally good harvest in Colomble. On the other hand, tho trand of production appoan to bo rising in Asia and Africa, whoro bottor cropa wore rocarlod in 1063 than in any partner var High prices ndoubtedly oncungod tborough and arofu harvesting Tot imports Into the Unſtod Stata vero thrno percent hagber than in 1002 Eren wo owing to stock lacreases and purchase for the mod forces, per caput consumptlon k estimated to hero docllnod by two poroont. Vith the oroption of tho United Kingdom, ad major Boropean im porting countries registered larger imports in 1803 part of which may hare gone into stocla in an ticipation of tbe price rtre tota Europan net importa were about women percent higher than in 1952, Tbo relatire shard of the United States and Europe In total world importa romained unaltered et 2 and 39 porcent rocpootiroly Among - porting countries Colombia rouchod . focord figuro of nourly 400 000 tons whereus esports from Brazil were about two poroent lower than those of 1802 Esport ourning from ooffoo roso further Prices which had remained fairly stablo around A canto por lb (Santos 4, er dook Now York) for two youn, bogan to rimo in 2003 on the now of tho Brullan frout. Tho stoop rimo bogan in Novombor whoa frost damago nu found to bo haurlar than anticipatod. Contrbating factors woro redaction in stoctor in both produdog and comming countrio o Hoo in the Badlan pelco support and the early disposal of practically all Contral American cropa. In the fint wook of April 1854 prices for Santos 4 stood 60 poroont highor than at the amo timo e your ago, Rotall price in tho main consuming markets have not yot caught up with those of groon oolloo und for thor Inoroupes appoar fooritable. Outlook The poor prospects for the port Braulian orop - to bo barvosted from Way to September 2004 -rovcu . corona gap to the world, 001100 sup. plles which can hardly bo Anod by higher output from other producing countrian It appean cor tain that thero will be bou ooffoo Anibblo In 1054 unlea prododng countrlo roduce their domatto consumption la faror of orporta. Prices aro Ikoly to repajn comparatively Arm notwtbstanding 124 ·TAPLE 60 Corn 1 NIT IDokti TO BLDOTED COUNTRIES 104 11 Tento 1911 31 Event 1031 Cotmr on Ra10x 1053 (prel) 180 110 Franco Italy Belgium Germany (Teatern) 101 o 61 66 164 67 B2 17 60 106 480 500 TOTAL Euron Unltod Btutes Curada 788 17 1 119 40 1 C8 H 1 20 40 Afrkan 60 K 81 so 34 20 TYOLID TOTAL 1 610 1 800 1 015 Prrwr Chermany the fact that couramor roshetanco to high prices has begun to make itself felt. Consumption of coffee Anbotitute of “extender and of poloblo coffee is rhing and can be ospected to riso further The supply dtuation le likely to improve in 1955/56. Rom. of Brazil. frost-incken arous will have rooovered and the efforts made in cof foo-growing countries all over the world to tako udrantage of tho progtablo prices of the past for years will be bearing fruit. On the other hand, population incroLP will enhanco demand. Data on planting and replanting ero too improcbm for an onzluation of the price outlook which will bo influenced not only by the coffee mapply and domend situation, but by income and other general economic factor TADLI 67 Corro Errom room Lax ProduOTO CouD (op 1131-19 STO 1011-51 Lerro 1131 The mire few 878 B19 Brul Colombha Badoo Guntedala Fl Ralvador 1 011 24 4 30 47 84 62 ai 07 74 87 73 TOTAL LATIX AMERICA 1308 1 611 1 603 11 700 3 French Africa British Africa Angola ICA 01 70 1c0 07 72 10 TOTAL AYRICA 130 315 1 310 Indonesia 11 31 TOTAL AULA 15 WOXLD TOTAL 1 60 1 000 1 240 " to 195 ·TEA Current situation Owing to adsorte weather in 1853 growers in Northern India did not fully implament therr pol loy of crop rootriotion evon w production ro mainod below that of the propious year There howevor . markod improvemont in the quality of the crop Output in Southern India Coylon and Paldistan (ocroused, oft otting the onell roduction in ropplies from Indonesia and East ALICA No Important changes are recorded to production obe where Total world outpat (or cluding U.SS.R. and Chine) in 1953 15 prorlolon ally outimated at 083 000 tons, or slightly higher than in 1952 (890 000 tona). In 1833 both asporto an imports were larger than those of the preceding your Indie mus able to increaso hor exports by 40 000 tons and to soll har tes ourlior than wul. Exports from Coy lan roco by 11 000 tonn, thu more than affzetting tho lover orporta from Indonesia and Britlah Pest Afries. Grow importa into the United Kingdom, however weronlightly lower than in 1962 tho your of do rationing On tho othor hand total diappoer anco taking stock change. Into Acoount li artimated to hero increased by ten percent. Rooxports from London rou in 1853 and reached 60 percent of tho pronu figure (31 400 tons an nul arengo in 1934-38) Thero mu ovldance of rhaing demand in most otorou markota. Imports into Egypt Apstralia and Now Zoaland mamo u wall u in tho United States where propaganda offorts and high coffee prices contributed to . grotter use of tes. Total world not imports in 1063 ere estimated to havo boen about 460 000 ton Undor the proexure of improving demand and with gonorally better quality price for Indian tes moro then doublod during 1853. From lu, Osd. per lb in Docombor 1069 Calcutta orport prices moved to J. 1 Bd in Deoembor 1863 und stood in Barch 1854 at 38.0.80 Higher gndd toe which had never aufered tho are sovoro declino me comparatively low high grown Coylan tou more priced in Blarch 1034 at about 38 percent above the December 1869 quotation Contributing to thero increases were the planned continuation of finer placing throughout 1054 and tho wgna turo of . Russo-Indian trado agreement which Includes ton. Rotall prices followed faſt in most oonhaming countries In tho lost two docada tho intorul market in producing countries has become of increasing im portance and in 1962 when orport prices were Lover governments of prodaoing countries bocumo Incronungly amaro of the nocority for oxpanding their home markets. With higher wager and bot. tor Lring standards domostio consumption in India and Publatan 1 steadily riotng Unofficial estimates pleco it at 80 000 toru and 9 000 tont rospootlroly m your compared with 88 000 tons in 1914-48 and 41 000 tono in 1937-39 for both countries. There appears to be un incrossing do mand for lopor grado tour in Indonosia. No or pasulon of homo consumption has boon reglaterod in Coylon TADLE 68. TEA PRODUCTIOY Coumar om Region 11-30 erinte 1911-31 An 1981 IIN (prul.) India Coylon Indodoti Japan Pakistan Other Ans 178 0 1039 74 8 3 25 6 1422 308 30 1 143 7 J7 0 57 0 241 A8 175 8 165 6 106 87 0 2. 3 194 TOTAL AILA 486 008 574 Africa 9 10 10 17 Other - TOLLD TOTAL (excl China and T &&R) 400 343 0:00 3 111 Genbode, Lion, The Kam Na Inu Vekh irure Tubes Arratu bariller Yoou or in 120 ·TAD 0 TH NET INTORTO INTO BELECTED COUSTRIES 1914 1111 101 arer 103 11.30 COD.TT .NET pomoshat liko the roof roplacement coste Horever the faronable outlost for tho III crop Indicates the poulilty of rome downward prico adjustment. In eubeequent months. On the whole tea prodocen who bere locomo Increas Ingly cost coreclone, wil wok to regulato proluo tlon to prevent another tharp prico doclino much u took place in this and the oristence of strong prodacor wociatlom ander the stupaces of the International Ter Committee faoilltatet mainte mance of closo control on production TON metrke in 114 01 100 9214 7 207 2 34 4 20.2 23 2 United Kingdom Olber Euro Uolted State Canada 17 & 200 20 O 400 Eppt French Lorocco Union of South Africt 7 CL 6.2 18+ D4 89 10 2 20 12 413 D 115 COCOA 34 37 1 Aratroll Ter Zealand Production WOULD TOTAL 401 11 480 Outlook Giron favorablo woutbor conditions production in 1054 is likely to riso in most producing coun tries in line with changer in demand. In India, ocul keglelation will Impore Increased financial burder on the tea Industry Despite the prot perody year 1853 thero iau yot no reason for com plauconoy Roplanting fortilbing and maintenance costs will tako their tol of higher profilts loans will have to be repeld and doploteri Terits ro built. Under theno drumstances, enough ter en bo espected to be forthcoming from Indian gurders to meet tho increased roqulrements of Otor en market. In Ceylon, where tea account ed for moto than half of Jl export carningu outpat is likely to rive further Tho outlook for Ladonela i lem farorblo dixeur is widespread, the number of gardens and factories operating ks declining and the badly needed roplanting of old gandens is often neglected for lack of govern ment mistance Somewhat bryr mpplies an bo expected in 1834 from Fast Afrian prolacing region which rafered from dronght in 1053. Both in Europe and in the United States, im ports aro Ikels to rise fa 1031. Ta, xil tho cheapest drink, will benefit from coutumer rette tanco to high priced coffee. Under tido agreementa concluded with the main producers the USBR and Eastern Europe may enter tho orld warteto to target extent than poriousl Ino may again become an importer once her potments difcuities are settled. Until the urinal of the per terron tes in the ute mer prices are not hity to realet. Lo deed in some countries retall prices may rise Torld cocos production in 1033/54 lo estimated at 720 000 tons u compared with 740 000 tona In the previous year and with a 1948-52 aterako of 783 000 ton. Tho declino In 1953/04 production is due en tirely to redaction in both the Gold Court and Nigeria whero the current arop is estimated at 38 000 ton below that of 1932/63 and 47 000 tom below the average for 1048/49 1052/03 Con tinuance of the Brazilian drought would have cros edanoxtremely difficult situation. Tenther condi tions wero not farorable in Vigeria and the Gold Comst during the 1053/64 growing reason and there was probably an incteuro in loween from benten und pesta. However the baslo probleza 1 bother other factors of long term character were abo t rock whether tho declino represents the begin ning of a trend which will become accentuated la futuro yeary posibly from an IACTERSO in the percentage of trees which hero pored peel productivity and u bomo observer surmure long term climatic changes which will affect the economio character of the region The great Increuso in rould cocoa production during tho third and fourth decader of the century wu dae ontirely to the growth of Afrla output concentrated overwhelmingly in the Gold Coast and Nigeria Prom an annual arengo of 103 000 toru daring 1910 19 production rose to 180 000 in 1831-38. Afria . percentage rontribution to world rapplies tome during this period from 38 to - peak of 80 The Gold Coast and Yigeria alone contribated during the last fre premar ytan almost 2 perrtat of the world total. Since then, their percentage contribution has been on tbe decline Lelling from 10 urerage of 48 in 1018440 1012/03 to H la 100,34 Horeter it is doubtful wheth er tbe kanty and not too relisblo data currently orallable on age distribution of trees and on ro 127 ·TALE 70 COOOA : IMOD PRODUOTION BY CONTANTI COTIDEST 1134AS 111.21 ren 1043/46 110/31 inn 11511 115173 19JI Pou) Tu strke to Ltin Amoria of which Brudl 28 (124) 289 (141) (107) (07) 233 (11) 6 480 500 460 474 ASA Afnan of which : Gold Coast Nigeria +(91) (107) (109) (109) (531) (111) (213) (101) Ooound. 3 4 3 1 WORLD TOTAL 725 773 000 740 Spurte. cont plantings are rullioiont proof that production will continuo to declino in coming yean. What is certain L that in no major producing area is thoro discerniblo an opward trend in production. Thero hu Loon pomo planting and roplanting crpecially in the minor cocoa countrlow, but it is doubtful whother there changes wil, at boot more than compenn to for the tendency to lower yoldı. Price and Trade During the first ten months of 18.53 the price of cocoa beune factuated between 32 and 40 UR conto 1 pound. In November borroter poloes began to nino and in the sporing of 1934 the price of current mapples roue to the unprooodented figure of 66-68 cents a pound. Whilo the declino in West African crops was responsible for tho ini tial ximulas, it is not mufficient to explain the full magnitudo of the price rue, 'True anco the end of tho war stocla baro boen practically non-arlet ent and coorsquently there weto Do TORT Ver to offret tho fall in ourront production. But the most important factor ns the grout rise in con pumption in somo Europan countries, notably in the Unitod Kingdom and Gormany The pattern of trodo changed substantlally in 1803/54 from previous youn. Europe abnor bod. dgnificanth larger percentago of world applier. On a porosput busta coturamption Incround aberp ly in the United Kingdom Italy Ireland and Germany United Kingdoon net imports of cocos boans and products (in terms of bouns) were 60 porront higher in 1863 than tho 10.34-38 average. On tho other hand par apot consumption in tbe Unitod Btatos he continuod the downward postmi trend. Ibllo imports of cocoa and cocoa products wero lightly higher in 1903 than in the previou year they were lowor then ln 1867 and rubatantially lower than lo 1860 although popa bation hed Increuod by fivo porcent aput bawe, 1963 importa were only po porcont of the 1034-38 evergo notwithstanding tho great roo in motional income and damer purobasing pover Om « por Outlook TABL 71 Cocoa ALOITTOY W THE UXITED HTATE, THE UNITED KIXODOX AXD OTNEJ pax EUROT Coor 1901-31 ITIL 1910 1951 1011 1130 wel) TN true to 289 TO FI Failuro of production to respond to the high prices which baro proralled since 1947 route #fondimenta reakup tho world coco oconomy For all poctial parponer land resources muitablo for cocos production and almost unlimited Nor lo lack of adoqusto labor rosource rorloos problem in mat of the cocos countries. The bacio dificulties appar to be economio und to a larger estent politial Bloco cocoa production requires long term investment (a to oight year to the first barrut) confidence in both econotolo und 05 121 110 117 1003 Unuted States United Kingdom Other atero Europe 104 15 countries. 128 ·cleclotro factor in tho Europon price structure of manolactured prodacto continued high prices with the rulisnt mounting financing problem and likely to have simlar effects and rerearch on Labatltutes for coros has been espanded during the past year aboo in Europe TOBACCO political stability is a polmo pre requisite Both huro been lacking in postwar am Although ibero hus been romo planting and to planting in manr Latin American countries and planta tion that had been allowed to degenerato during tho period of low price bare boep roconstructed there have been for instances of major investmont program to establish large nor prodortion com ter The Oconomio policies of somo governmenta particularly where the producer has been paid mly a part of the market price - have not been mondacire to large-scalo capital investment. In some arrus diacriminatory turn and foreign er chango manipulation hato reduced the growtto Incomo from coroa and coffed production Coni dence has been further andermined by political and legislativo measures against forolga spital and egalnat largo plantations In the major conturing countries high price for cocoa hare grontly stimulatod moiontifio rcroarch for tabtitutet. So far honorer no matlafactory metbod bas been derived to opdow other foto rith tho melting qualities of cocoa butter and admis tures of other fato boro been posible only to a comparatitels emell degree. Bat thoro ato Indian. tlonu that progress has been made In tho United States for instance it hu beon estimated that COCO consumption may decline by 18 20 percent A result of the line of rabotitutes in tho Dalla facture of chocolate cootiogu. At the name timo publiety in faror of non-chocolato confectionery producing greater pabllo ecerptance of the hun drade of typen of confocttopery that have been plac ed on the market. The proportion of chocolato confectionery to total wales has been declining stead ity Although tho price of cocoa beana is . lepa York prodnotion of tobacco la 1033 alightly orceeded the amount harvested in 1952 in spito of a decreano In United Stater leaf production. European production increased substantially and tacrease bo occurred in Turkey Inn, Indla Ja pen, Cabe, Brull and Southern Rhodenia Tho largest increaso was of Oriontal and cigar tobacco whereas production of flao-cured Virginia and Bur loy tobaccos wu omaller Torki trdo increamed oror the low level of 1852 mainly becauso of larger shipments from the United States in early 10.3. Sapplies and Trade In the United States further marplush accu mulated and to promote exports tobacco bus been included in the group of commodities which may bo ospartod against payments in soft curtencion Under there providor eler of the 1953 crop haro beon negotiated with tho United Kingdom ($20 million) as well us with Wootern Germany ($10 million) Franco Finland and Italy Total Unitod States stocks u of 1 January 1954 reached 203 million tons (le only 0,800 ton more than tho year before) of which 205 000 tons were addor gotemment louna TADL 72 Tobacco : PopcorioX AYD Erroms Vuox ErrorIXO Coutin Produtica Esport Cucm 1111111 50 Teruererigt 1931 19. 161 33 1115-30 rette er 1131 1931 103 The work in 00:41 1 039 1 001 212) 180 113 116 Und Ntate Canada Brul Cube Ida Turket Oruce South Abodeta. 100 19 81 110 20 108 5 31 12 13 0 13 2+ 16 31 HR 12 291 80 24 112 C 10 101 13 10 TOOTAL 1 198 1 845 1 ou I 1 OTA 319 41 471 471 incode Pet 120 ·TAW 74 UNITED BTIT Toucco Econ, 100 AWD 19 1951 10 The metri tau Flue-curod. Burley Dark firo-cured. Maryland 146 13 3 89 2007 11-3 88 Cigar leaf Other types 31 11 TOTAL 1709 231 3 The docroeso in fluo-corrod stoala andor loan at tho end of 1853 compared with your curlier show that marketing of this typo bu been nther ruocessful, partly u result of the support to oxports in the latar part of 1053 Tho further saumulation of burley stood in spito of a small er crop has led the govornmont to rodiotho arou quote for 1054 by eight percent where the quote for fluo-cured ha boon sightly increased Fermeti intontions to plant in 1954 sbow tm porcont Incolo in aree of fao-corod, or to eight percent doctoare la burloy area and rodeotioru in fire-cured and dark air-cured area of re spectively soven and oloven percent compared with 10.9 Intended area planting of cigar tobacco shor : five percent lacrouro Exports in 1953 Included tobacco beld under option for tho United Kingdom from the 2009 crop and shipped in March Hay 1853 Normally . Largo portion of theso mlo would have beon shipped in the fall of 1858 Export figures for 1052 (179,200 tons) woro theroforo sbnormally low The averago for 1948-50 wu 213 000 tona, Canadian production in 1953 at 01 000 tons Wu Wightly lower than in 1062. The output of fuo-carod dokraused four percent in spite of a nino percont Inorod in tho Ontarlo distriot whero tho Markoting Soodation had allowed planting up to 76 porcent of the baso bordage Exports (of which Nuo-oured accounts for $5 percent) docta. od from 17 490 tons in 1868 to 12,820 ton ta LOKS In 1954, however hearier erporta aro oj pected and domand from davetio mandlactuen may bo larger Convoquently growers of fine curod tobacco haro been lorod to plant tho fall buo acreago in 1004 Total stocks in Canada a of I January 1834 were slightly lowor then on tho samo dato in 1002 and 1853 though stocks of firo-cored obowed light increase In spite of prodaotlon regulation under a quota system strpluss havo ab ocotrred in Cuba In 1953 tho Caben Stabilization Fuod destroyed 13,280 tons of unsaleablo tobacco and surplus stocho on hand lato in 1003 may oqasd only one-third of a year's orport. For tho 1063/64 crop . quota of 36 740 tou hus boen established. Prodaction in early 1953 amounted to 38 100 tone. At tho and of 1903 Itely wro roported rarplus stoca of tobacco and Arous under contracts for 1934 hero boon further rodaced. Indien tobacco oportod an coodgnmont has boon accumulating in foreign porte and thoro uro almoorcolvo stocbo in India of low-grado tobacco During 1003 tharo ww . romarkablo dovelopment la tho production and marketing of Oriental tobacco Together Greece and Turkey Inorou od output by 60 000 tone and oxports from the tro countries increased by 12,000 tons. At 49 112 ton Groek orporta Ware the largest in post wir For and naar tho level of tho Leto 2020. In 1054 Grooco ozpocte to arport 68 000 tons and in 1958 70 000 toru. The lacroure in exports to explainod by the incrouing one of Ortontal tobu.coo in Vestern Garmpany and in Eastern Europe and more competitivo prie in foreign carrenda anco tho doramation of the dnchms la early 1053 llarooror Turkey aspects increased outlets in Eustern Europe and tho USSR but to facing sharper competition from Greece Stock of Outen tal tobacco of propiou harrots douroud daring 1953 but sotto lacroute la stoca rooms Ikoly dar Ing 1854 Stoclu in most importing countries aro ati con Adored lov in proportlan to manufactures roqulro. menti, United Kingdom stocks at the end of 19:33 Tere 200 OK tomt to 17,670 tops larger then tbo proplow your but 20 000 tons below the stock lovel at tho end of 1961 TADLE 71. Coxroro or TOBACCO I Gorzno MAXT STOCKA DY TO UNITED STATE TI 1 Jeuert 11.30 I Janourt 1151 147 4 Flo-cured Barley Maryland Fire-cured Dart au-cured Cipar leur 35 31 7 1481 101 o 35 HO 108 60 149 TOTAL 2017 130 ·State and Canals is especteel to be at lcent us trong ao in 1053 Tho derira ullity of increasing working stocka in sovoral importing countries also supports tho faromblo outlook for the tobacco It ia yot to be renhether the roriral of de mand for Oriental typo tobacco in Western and Fastern Europe will be sufficient to justify tho contemplatod ospanelan of production in Groove and the maintenance of production in Turkey The mey to great ertent dopend on the furthor dorelopment of trado with Eastorn Europo and the U.S.BR COTTON Prices and consumption Price during 1053 ales roue generally in tho United States. Fluo-cured tolmeto (Type 11 14) brought on the arcngo $62.50 per 100 Ibe against $60.07 In 1032. Becado of poor quality prices for Nortbem typu (lls and 111) To lower bat for types 12 14 they word higher largely been of better quality Tho minimum price for Can edios fluc-oured tobacco roso slightly in 1963 but at Southern Rhoderia suction – mainly be cue of lower quality - avenge price rtro lower Averago unit walat of United Kingdom Imports of Aldo-cured and Orontal tobacco Increerd in 1053 During 1953 for the first time since the early 1030 , consumption of ciguotta in tho United States showed a slight declino in volume Tho actual quantity of leaf tobacco wed by manufaa turoru, bomover showed practically no docking a tho percentago ofeng vize cigarettes incround. Cigarette poices Tomo la curly 1953 and poolbly tho duction of health uspects of cigaretto amok Ing aloo had some influenco on demand In Can adla, due to the lovor tur lovel, agaretto con sumption during tho ftrat ton months of 1003 in crcaud 16 percent over the rumo penod in 1062 In Tentern Germany tho tax reduction in Juno was followed by an increase of more than 20 per cent In olgarotto production during the second half of the year for the whole of 1063 prodaction in CTCARD 18 4 persent. In the United Kingdom Dot cleaninces from bonded wrebouser in 1953 totaked 101 600 tons compared with 88 080 tonu during 1052 Current Situation World supplier of cotton in the 1963/64 reason wero much in occa of congumption roqulromonte. There have boon no martod changes in the vol omo of production or consumption over the pust three years, but production exceeded consumption loo ton percent in 1851/02 by ils percent in JD52/ 1053 and by eight perrent in 1003/04. As a romalt, atoch of cotton had rixon to about 18 mil Lion balon by the ond of July 1951 - equinalont to ready olght monthe consumption at the current nate A surplus position has beon developing in the United States whero abnormally large (CC) stocks bero scoumulated – 7.8 million balet in mid May in the courto of price support operations Supplies in other countriet ero not believed to hare been exchairo at tho ond of tho 1063/81 Kuwon. With polcom down to support lorela and stocks relatirely high at plantlog time it was part of offical policy to dinownge of restrict cotton production in number of countrilo novertheles tho world cotton crop ls estimatel to havo increah ed by about tro percent in 2003/64. A smaller Top ru recommended in tbo United Staton but 4 moderato reduction in the area cultivated was offret by an extraordinary jump in the ylck] with the result that production increased by soren Outlook Indication are that tobacto leaf production in 1054 win bo higher than in 1853. For the cropa to bo harvested in the first half of 1954 it la expact ed that productbon will of ceed that of 10.53 by roven percent. Consequently with the increaso in que-cured are in the United States and Canada and tho improved outlook for export of Orenta) tobacco prodaction of these principal types in the Northern Hemlophero in the fall of 1834 lo likely to exceed at kast equal lost ytat i production. The Improved balance of peyments situ ution in relation to the dollar tres has led to Uberllation of leat tolacro Imports from the dol lor ares into the etberland, and Western Ger mant la 1951 and thl derelopment together with the United States Alos Agairat perment in soft CUTeacica bas nored a more optimistic Flex in United State inde direkt. Furthermore demand from the domestic manufacturers in the United There was a gerenl doelino in production in other major exporting countrier some of which had sreable stocks et tho beginning of the cuon. In Egypt limitation on the area anilibło to cot ton were in force Tho acreage planted was to Jaced by one third and the crop wu Almost 30 percrat muller in Ploten 1.o cotton culti ration was curtalled and this together with reba. tirely low ytelde, resulted in a 24 porcent drop in 131 ·TUL 7 COTTOK : WORLD SUTTLY AND DISTRIBUTIOX In 1854/ DINT Iten 10188 True 1151/11 1953/54 (PRL) 11H/ (toru) trion bala (111 km) 10 8 140 13 3 18 6 16 0 (36) (37) (20) (3) (7.5) (18) Opening sobi of whroh United States CCO Irinato Produotion of whiah United Buates Total apply Corumption of which United States. (1.5) (10) 24 (136) (03) (16) PS 8 (10 3) 84 2 70 5 (163) 25 (11 8) (124) 407 394 100 (65) 28 1 (OI) do (95) (86) Erdado UO. R. Lutero hope tad Chloe. Inoledo Deports to UOL Eton Europe and Ching, and decorood oolton, b.0.1 mild tons made mon tous fort 7/1953 and 1933/4 ropotireby Not arulablo International Cotton Adriory Committee Ad Untlod States Department f Agricultor. Nou prodaotian. Tullah and Mexican crop which hed oxpanded rapidly in the postwar ora, Woro o mallor The outcome of the Badlian har rest is uncertain. There uno price rapport for cotton in 1963/84. Reports suggout the tho Acroago under cotton wus substantially maller in South Brazil. Weather conditions were an favorablo lato in the reason. Cotton crops in the minor orporting countdo of the Middle East Africa and Latin Ameria wero gopornlly Largor Thom of the major conruming countda bo increapod The acreage in India to roportod to hevo inground by olght percent and the arop wu orpooted to be ton to Aftoon percent Largur u result of highar violdı. Roporta on condition in the Soviet Union and China muggoat that production Lest rouna may havo beor three to Alvo porcent largør Tho ovldono ap to mid-nouson indicatod that global ootton contumption in 1963/64 would bo kommeghat higher than in the immediately proced Ing reason A doolino in tortillo activity in North Amerian rodaood cotton corruption by elght peroont u oompared with your carllor In L. tin America tho volume of consumption changed little In the major cotton importing konon of Western Europo and Jupen, bowover tho trend of consumption was strongly upward LOGOS in individual countries rungod up to 30 poroont In India, China and tho Soviet Union, whero tox tillo Industrio ero largely dopondent on domestio cotton crop tho trend ww slightly opwarda TANU 70. Cortox PRODUOTIOX CDI 1DHE 101/ aren 194266 ATEN 1131/31 1651/ 1191 and) United State Brodco Inal 11.19 0 0 1 g 13.61 OSO 1 61 10 10 I 19 16 17 1 26 1 60 10.30 I 11 I O 01 0 14 1 BS 0 43 80 0 70 100 0 00 1 47 Turloos Egypt Huasten India 1 17 S 15 1 29 104 108 1 10 0 24 6 09 U8 B R. Cluna, Eastern Europe Other 7 10 JH 77 30 364 ITORLD TOTAL 30 45 N 43 25 69 19 42 GOTT Letration (bttn ad Committee 132 ·- TABL. 77 COTTON COXRUHITION 100 Aveti 1031/37 1951/53 ID 53/31 (pre) Iveta R QOY Ukmer utzita mer Vinil Pet ht vtale HET will lor bak cent Mr nat cent 30 Dg De 18 98 18 North Ardenice 10 8! 6 11 7 20 8 Latin America Western Europe Far East and other i 71 6 B 6o 17 7 1! 6) 2 60 771 70 10 8 31 100 WORLD TOTAL 1 26 100 20 2 100 15 IOC too 100 Elodu V R. Chipecod Eat Kurse Low International Cotton Adrheory Coomittee Although consumption wu already rieng in most importing countries, there wus somo ten dency to keep Imports relatively close to consumptron reqalrements, or even loue in tho 1952/ on, In vlow of tho doclining trond of prices. International trade in cotton in 1932/03 wel rob antially amaller than in the preceding turon 'Tho rodootion wwe concentrated in United State and Brazilian whipments, while the supply of other growtha morod in greater volume and at more competitive prices With a continding opmard trend in consumption and a curtainment of supply in prospect interna tlonal trdo in enttoo expanded in the 1003/04 As the Egyptian topply had already been much reduced by the cut in production, osports from that country declined. United States shipmonta stoppod up sharply in the second half of the reseon, and may bo 20 percont greator In rolamo compared with the previous your Shipmonta from most other major exporting countries woro running at or above the provlow carons lorel. Tho rocovery in Brawllan osporta u partioularly noteworthy United Stato. prices baro been actively support ed through government lowa amangomento siner the beginning of 1853. As large stockos oro ucca malated by the Commodity Crodit Corporation, prices remained rather stablo Offtolal and market prices of other important growth Egyptian Reklatant Brazilian - had by mid 2003 U been adjusted to lovole competitivo with United States cotton. With tho Unito Stato declalon to ratrict production in 1934 the entiro strtoturd of cottor CLOO TADLs 78 Cottox Erons 111111111n IT 1911- ATENT 1051/59 1011/30 ( DRT Prenat Men Print TON Porett TAUAN Pertant United Btato Sedco 5 018 105 403 08 4 $70 40 80 3 810 975 496 88 J018 098 200 24 Brul. Peru 86 1 06-3 17 31 176 69 350 3:47 10 371 14 31 30 174 207 77 1 623 344 ILO 21 Da 149 31 913 103 BY 96 10 S Łport A Xudan. Tarkers India I'usten 1 733 ro 40 19 114 900 11 27 one I 278 Oxher! 1 080 1 213 JII 1 318 11 D I 003 IB P TOLD TOTALI 10 995 10+ 11 110 100 10 SAS 100 Ei bin IRAIL and Chus Hot T lut nutte Coton Adrey Chopittre 133 ·FIGURE XV Monthly Average Prkes of Cotton (including Export Taxes) U MOM 10 -- $0 40 10 Tho prospects for connmption and trado sro more woertatt. Tho a tertilo trdo oyelo with Ita investment and dis-Investment in tortilo toclo lo at difforant stages in different parts of the globe. Ascumning no prolonged gorenl roccasion in tho United States an upowing in flber consumption may commenco in 1954/00. In Western Europo notivity may bo como het roduood panding di goation of tortile trade stocka. This may not bo qalıkly schloved in tho face of increasing com petition from the Far Eastorn toxtilo Industries in world markota. Under the conditions, world consumption of cotton day wol bo maintained In 1954/00 but tho recent or pandon in inte national trade in cotton may poter out. Uncertainties us to the future intonational price tracture of cotton andorline this prospoot. Thero lo no oficial plan for an orport rubeldy on United States ootton. Tho Unitod States support prloo for cotton will be slightly higher in 1054/5.5 and the supply basis is contracting, but the oltoutfon further ahead will depend on whother and to what extent production rootrio tlopu continue in tho Unitod Stator and bothor oftialal propoul for a moro fodble price policy aro scooptablo to tho United States Congree. fornwhile in Ipandan in man mudo Aber ca peaty continues Large-Haulo additions to rayon staplo outpat ero in pro poot in the Unitod King dom and Japan, the major cotton importon. 1957/33 1953/54 US kurr 1516 Lacres 10 mrt trang Medico, okul 15/6 hecho los hecho 14439 T Tita ETA Almoval rod Alana Inchi L. huto te S (lak f 11150 Paldiete, FM 10. koncu prices movod apverds after December 1053 Ad nanoo in Paldeantiand Egyptian quotatlons word relatively sharp enco e rodaction in supply had already takon pleco, Proes of Morian and Bra- Allan ootton romained in line with United Stato quotations Outlook WOOL Current Silaation Tho 1061/05 momenn is likely to opon with . carry-over of cotton outside the U.S.S.R. Bestern Europo and Chine of about 18 million beloa, 25 million larger than . year earlier bat produotion (exclusivo of the artus mentioned) wll con tnct sharply from 20.5 million balor to pomibly 25.3 milton balon Total ropply may therefore bo Hot at 43 million beloa in 1001/88 u against 45 million balas in 1963/64 Allotments to the United States provide for a cotton wou of 214 million sera which under normal conditions voukl produco 11.5 to 12 million balea an sgoingt 18.3 million balco in 1953(01. Some recovery in prolaction may tako pleco elecwhere 1 e romult of the highor pricou now proralling Minimum prices in Egypt have recently boon nie. ed bat Ilmltation on the cotton uren romain in forre although less argent. Higher prices may also encourage Pakistan to return to its long nange program of expansion, and some in prorement in Jevan yields and production may be expected. Such inercar homoser tre unlike Ir to outweigh the drastic cat in United States production 8inco tho roocandon from tho rocord 1000 vol wme world rool on umption has movori moro in line with current production. In 1051 and again in 1852, oorwomption was lightly smaller then the curront clip The resulting hock la COU were hovovor not very considerable. In 1953 consamption again outstripped current production and bearbed most of tho ocor of the two proooling year hell in oxporting countrieu World prodaotion of wool in 1063/B4 The pain on the record lorol of the prorious pouvon The Antallen clip, which alono accounts for 30 percent of the world total on a clean basis, rus alightly Lovor then la 1052/03 whor, largely us a messuro of the raceste achievod in combatting the nbbit pest, production had orpanded u moch u 20 percent. In the other southern Botlah Domin ions, wool production continued to increa la the 1963/64 roupon Tho Argentine olipas 134 ·slightly greater than in the previous maronbut as Fieldo vero only Arthuge tho cloan weight mos robably a little love and alone among the major produceri, below the lovel of the earller postwer porlod. A furthor moderate increase in sheep gamlen in 1052 Is roported in tho Borlot Volon Iringing the sheep population to 20 percent sboro the pour leye! Tool consumption in 1953 rose to littlo short of the 1850 levo! Recovery from the 1051/03 recension nu genen' in Western Europe and there i forther Ingrosso in consumption in Japan. In the United States, on the other hand tho mod trato increase in rool comptlon which took place w practically confined to the carpet mc tor In the apparol rootor the rocovory in con sumption on civilian account was offrot by fur ther decline in military ordon. Towards the end of tho year yorld consumption generally maslovel Ing off at a ntr closely lo balance with corront production Torld stocks of wool at the beginning of 1054 ato estimated at . little over peren months con rumption. Commercial stocha roto probably the mallest daco 1016 Government hold stocht included tho United Kingdom Aruteglo stockpille oquimlent to 244 monthe corrumption of wool in tho United Kingdom and United States domes. TAALA 70 Wool : WORLD MODUCTION TUI 1946 17 Tie 11/6/1-1984/81 #Turn 1131/17 1931/43 1133151 130 90 50 90 Australia Now Leoland U 8. B R. Argentina United Stato Union of South Atra Uruguay Othor countries The matrie Imus, ckes hele 184 10 N18 124 127 75 00 6.5 100 90 23 68 69 18 62 0 46 200 110 110 80 w 300 38 57 300 TORLD TOTAL 940 1 010 1 0.05 I 110 1 140 TADL. 80 WOOL: WORLD COWYMIOY ROOX 131 rero nen 1131 1953 11JU The winto, che hans 903 169 28 North Ardoria of which U.S.A aprerol rool U8L arpet wool (110) (105) (83) (178 (10) (161 (51) (165) 61 470 400 800 Waten Europe of which Uarted Kingdom Franco Clermony (11 order) (107) (103) (210) (117) (+) (190) (90) (172) (97 (60 (71) U 8 & R. and Eastern Europe 1 110 113 323 13 Far Eart of which Japan 70 (49) 60 (11) 60 (45) 77 (50) Otr ar 115 ID IM Hard TOTAL 1 100 I 033 1 045 1 176 I're the sorta Kota dan ata mund by the Coparralth Lelo Comittee 135 ·TIRL 81 IVOOL WORLD BOOT 10t Jematy ITEM 1151 1950 1151 drto to do Erporing tomiriu Batuh Dominiony 1 South Amorion 20 4 tho 1062/63 expart polome from South Amoria annot bo ropeatod. Imports of wool into Europo in 1963 were con siderably larger than in the proviot two year and thero nu further riso in importa into Japan. There mu horoyer no recovery In importa Into tho Unitod Stata, where oommerolal stonlu hato been very considerably roducod. Raflocting tho clono belenco bet woon current consumption and production, wool prloos generally karo show ponudablo stability in the 1953/54 OubonA moderate morement in buyor favor he appeared in tho finor gridor bat only part of the gndul adnanoo rooordod in the 1862/03 owon hu boon fout South Amerian prices ero 100 31 Importing countru Glovunpent ownod: Unitod Kingdom Unito Stato Comoroll 44 co 28 90 490 KOD WORLD TOTAL 610 040 Tu Pool 1 TYORLD Lxrond Total atoala in torms of month. oonrumption 83 7 2 1131- 113 JTUART DECT 1HO 1110 ATE 1131 1953 1150 (NL) 4 1 July lo prordtag you in of roro! OLTS TOP 1 October in procedias your clodin boll stoeb. Jat Marok, Ipohdit rool ander rotint loan. Ipohdin ol atout. Exchding UB B. R, Lastorn Turope . d Chine, - Komentul Tin mire te ken het 61 188 184 167 1:43 Unito Statos Europe 1 Japan 40 495 340 400 200 49 13 16 40 WORLD TOTAL 670 718 000 OLU 720 Inchidins UB. R. tlo wool acquired by the Commodity Credit Car poration under the proo support program, equiv Alent to 45 percont of tho Unitod States clip and to two months oonwumption of epperol rool in the Unitod Stato South Amorian stocks wero protially cloured in the 1952/53 Muon, but or porta luvo subsequently been lagging and there hua boon . rorowod sopimulation of wool in Argen tins und Uruguay As the arty-ove in orporting countries had boon rabotantially reduced by the beginning of the man on, trado in pool in 1953/54 L likely to bo umal er than in tho provlog Furn, poedibly by top percent or ovon mort dopending on the nato of shipment from South American Trado in Domin ion wool will probably bo much the same but more what above the world market and this ro counts for the slow rate of oxports from the region in the 1963/04 neuron. Outlook TABLI B HOOL WORLD ECOND im! 1016/ 1916 1910/ 1031 1915 1030/ 10 are KOTO KEITTHOL n31 1111/ 10:33 50 Thorloo in Europond wool consumption hu DOT levolled off and in the Unitod 8tatea Uttlo furthor improvement in 000fumor demand for wool tortilloa roma to bola proapoot for the time being Some downtoro in rould consumption will tako place in 1864 u gappliou are in any onto lo ample. Thoro are bowovor no lodications of rocowlou on the scale of 1001/82. Tho Tuut buk of the wool clip has been mooring roodily into trado channel at prices which if they ato a little lower than a your go onn still be con alderod favorable Only in South America and the United States LATO Wome quantities of wool beon held back from the merlot in tho formor bearn of the reluctance of doulers to accept pri ce ruling on the world market (orproorod in local Curredoa) ln tbe latter book of tho roquiro ments of the price opport program. Nearly al Tu merke arua 370 48.00 Total Soutbem Both Domuin ron, Total Routh America 467 481 117 190 80 10 TOLD TOTAL 670 700 10 tk laited IoN Jalat Oralsta un I Kiure 136 ·the wool acquired by the Commodity Crodit Cor poration, for the greater part from tho 1002 pro grum remeln ungold. It has been oficially pro poud to roplace the present motbols of prico rupport by diruot momento to products which would cover tho differenco bet weon their receipts derived from poled at the market price and the support lovel, thereby avoiding an ecoumulation of gorernment financed stocla of domestic wool. With preeent prices for incr grades on a lower lovel, it is unlikely that much of tho wool hitherto accumulated mi bo old for the time being It may bomoted that synthetio fibers for blonding with wool or as an alternativo to it are becoming availablo lo incroguing quantities and in un otor wider nngo of markota. Early In 1854 mbstantial cats were made in tho price of a number of folv synthetic ataplo fiber, both in the United States and the United Kingdom. Then Abets oonot fall to exort a gradually increasing laflu ence on the markot for wool good lion baler. At tho sme timo there has been a sharp drop in Indian produotion, duo to lower prices at planting time and unfamiablo weather conditions Allowing for 20 million halcs from the two previous Tops held bry tło Pakistan Jute Board at the be ginning of tho season the total apply of fato in 1053/04 (excluding stock, in consuming countrie) may be estimated at ebont nino million balco, u comparod with 13 million bales * year earlier Activity in the fato manufacturing Industry wus maintained at • stody rato in 1053 In Calcuttı, en increase in benslan output has com ponusted for • falling off in the production of waking The trond in malos hus followed the Amo pattor European mill hero boen in . lex faponblo podtlon to underbid Calcutta fol lowing forthor cut in tho Induan hoolon or port duty in Soptember 1053 uod Largo Argen tino ardort bero contributed to retire in bor. non exports from India Buler of both healan and uching havo outstipperi prodaotion, and mill stocks in Caloutta bavo boen worked down. Dondeo milli hero been very motivo and order books are roll filled In continontal Europe tho output of luto goods hus boen on a higher level than in 19.12. Consumption of fato manufacturer hw ebao been uthfactory in the United Staten the urg est market the housian out-op laat year was the Amo us in 1802 modonte increase in commer clal consumption made up for the doolino in milt tary requiremonta Tho yardago of howlan uud le not borover u groat u in promer yen in JUTE Current Situation To facilitato tho dispowalofstock of foto acquir ed In tho count of prico sopport operations begun in 1932 tho Pakatan Goverument drastically cut tbo acrengo lconeod for futo in the 1953/04 Keun. The actual ontturn proved to le even len than antidpated by tho gufortiment and has now beon aothoritatively stated to laro been only 3% mil TADLI 8L RAW Joni: PRODUOTTOX AXD Darul POLOD Area Fractha IL MODI Corrnption porto Orih Total Diapora! WOL Arteris werke Vle II 10 10 0 10 5 07 Oo 60 11 06 87 D D 1937-38 en go! Iodle (pre-partition) 1150/61 Milantan Indla 1931/32 Tulistan Idda 1952/53 Taidetan India 19.33/34 Talten India 07 OB 6 3 09 93 08 07 09 47 02 03 OB 06 11 0. Lichte Putod on muret Proti runsaal otte --X Dekat Xct rulle RCE Diretordt. d Itte Prict, L De Ilu Jat Xone Anselation 137 ·TALI 80. VATURE UID SOSTHETTO Ron: ETTUATED SUITLY/DEYLYD PATIOY IX 053 AXD 1951 In 1032 1131 Thn Actre tous Prodution 1 Tatun! Bynthetic Total I 150 201 2 T01 1 y 717 1 HD In conjunction with tho riro in contatoption, the drop in the output of natural jobber may te daco tho orcode of production to only 24 000 toon, . mmaller volume than in any provlow poatwr year Production of tho synthetio prodact is er pocted to declino slmost In line with consumption requirements In November 1A . Commirkon Wu set up in the Unitod States to recolra bldo from prirate buyen for the government owned ugnthotic rubbor plantı The Commodon report ita findmor by Juntury 105 The long terme demand for rubber berad on roing standards of living and on the devel opment of now we in roadway and opholstory be farorable. If the precont poco robationship botwroom the natural and synthotic products is maintained, natanal rubber will have tho opporto alty of partidpating in any openslon in 2005/06. On tho othor hand, rocont prices buvo had . dio. couraging oflect on higher cost production. Bomo rapply ney therefore have to bodaw from stook to fulfil rounirementa Consumption \atural Syntbetro Toto I 33 1 18 725 za Indicated bolantt for addition 10 porn and corial Hobi Tatul Bynthotto TOTAL 111 07 8 170 10 Mocna Laterpetopel HyubHady Groop. HARD FIBERS Current Situation tho Unit State. Notwithstanding this and an anticipated falung-cff la importa into the Bo vlot Union cod Eartem Europe world corrumption of natural rabhor la oxpected to increase by about five percent. This improvement contrasts with . prospectivo sharp contraction in the con sumption of tho cynthetlo product particularly in the United States. Natural rabber to ozpocter to account for about one-half of the total Unitod 8tata rabuer market in 2004. The decline in natural rubber production is expected to continuo in 1954 bat the drop this year lo expected to be only about 20 000 tons It is concentrated in Indonesia where the cost of Hiring remains high and many amal holders here abandoned robber tapping Hard fiber production doclined in 1953, though tho drop to output (novon porcent) ww relatively amall. Production in the Far East (primarlly abac) i almost u largo as in tho provlous yter Among the agaro Aboru, dual production in Africa reached a now penk bat dropped sharply in Brasil. The latter taken together with the decline in hopoguer production (prindpaly in Moxico) accounted for most of the out of 20 percont in Latin American outpat. TALE 87 HD FIRM WORLD PRODUCT10> 1911 11 1051 1151 1133 11A (pertory) 103 100 (118) 36.5 (191) Thord watts ( 145 (19) 10 142 (10) 100 (107) 08 (67) Abea ot hch PhpBx stal of which BI E. Arran Foncque of which odca. Other aber (110) 310 (100) 101 108 123 (100) (60) 00 86 40 070 570 070 TOLD TOTAL 140 ·TOLE HARD FIBI ITOELN INOIT 1011 1930 arer ITcY 1651 1951 TN Wire is 316 109 240 sikal last year were on the whole rather slagglob whilo consumption both of Aber and twine na houry Larger commercial purchaxs may congo quently bo ospected this your though this locteuO buy be offeet by reduced stockpilo brylng The dis pool of the Worleen hentquen crop as well as of oxisting stocks which amount to 40 percent of annual production, is mainly dopendent on prices being at a sufficient discount to risal to attract buyen and posible oren lov pnough to alloy sreable ulcs to Amerlan pudding mand factoren Vorth Ametic or which Abucu. 8l other 88 57 174 74 5 100 218 102 210 Western Europe of which Abec. Biel, other 41 173 37 100 100 100 FARM MACHINERY 30 20 23 30 Japan of which Abac. B, other 17 10 14 0 Other arou 25 30 25 Mo attempt is mado in the following noto to rofor to world production and oxport of tractors dumng the your under reriow rinco it has not been podble dunng tho past year to collect statlatia om production and import figurea. Tho treatment is confined to cortain uspeots of farm machinery or in the nowy doveloping regions where mecha nization presenta spocłal problems. WORLD TOTAL 470 500 580 Trdo in hierd fiber mui unovon in 1853 United Kingdom and Japaneto Imports Increased offsetting to a considerable extent . sherp con traction in importo into North Americh. On the other hand North America imported greater weight of cordage. The total offtake of hard Aber in 1053 Including approximately ten per cont going into the strategic stockpille has not been fur out of line with current production Tbo Improving apply/requirementu balance in hard Abert wus roflected in manch steedler pri ces in 105.3 then ln 1952. The only important price reductions occurred in Blexicon beneques in which the balk of the producery stocb ls Dow to be found and in Bruxilian girl, stocks of which, held by the Banco do Brasil, hero been Dearly all cleared foBowing foreign erebange con ceniom. Near and Far Eart As a general statement it I true that tractor nambon und in africultura Increased in the Noar and Par Eut daring 1963/64 but tho increuso cicept I ono or two countries wu not large ) of the ear and Far Eastern countries wh mochanization of agriculturo hex darlog tbor for yon boon punued with rigor aro no tending to consolidate the position other th to increase importu. This consolidation in mo CAH. Is taking the form of greator sttentlon to all three mattan which experience bus worn aro ma for furton in the operational costs of mechan la farming, lend clauring and subwoquent roll! preparation prior to colonization of now arous Breakdowns in the Asld and early 1 of tnctors and machines are generally a mu of inerport um wbich in tom, is caused by lawu Belent training of local operaton, fell errice a. repair men, and all personnel who are directly concorded in mechanical cultivation program. Jost countries in theus regions baro now plemented program to lmpert knowledgo tu personnel who hendlo modern farming equipo La e for countries where such programs not yet commenced plans have been dnm op for early implementation of this training. Ir reu in this field in dot n npid uncedert lat gotemments and farmers have become an through experience of the caulus of high opu Outlook A further moderate decline in production is expected to 1854 At the mo time the commer cial demand for hard fiber may Tery well increare though Hockple requirements probably be lorer laring total depend more or lea unchang ed and posibly little in excem of current prodoc tion. In aban a major retiral in demand be United States rope mangfacturen could lead to & shortening of rapplies, I tho requlrementy of otber artus, nor higher than at unr timo slace the mer ero maintained United States parchant of 141 ·TULI 80. YATRAL JID 8THTIO HUDA EDIATED BOTTLY/DEXAXD Por TOY Dx 103 AND 1954 ITD 100 1986 Thonon wartete Prodwtion Totural Synthetic Total 1 701 1 50 8:31 2 נער : H9 Consumption atural Synthetic Total In conjunction with the rive In conuromption, the drop in tho output of natural rubber may To duco the excess of production to only 24 000 tony, mm. ller rahume than in any provions postu year Production of the synthotio product is ex ponted to declino slmoat in lmo with consumption requrements In November 18S . Commalan was set up in the United States to rocotro bids from prrato buyen for the govoriment owned oynthetic rubber plants Tho Commission will roport Ita findings by Janary 10:55 The long terme demand for rabber becod on raing standards of Hying and on the dovol opunent of new taken in roadways end upholstery faronable If the provont price relationship bet woon tho natural and synthetlo prodoots a maintained, natural rubber will have the opportu nity of partiapating in any orpansion in 185506 On tho other hand rocent peces have had a dhe counging offect on higher cost production. Somo supply way tbarefore havo to bo drawn from stocka to fulfill requirements 1 33 I TCB Indırated balanre for addition to gorement and comincial stocks Natural Synthetro Tout 112 07 170 24 -8 IO BOME International Ruhe Bad Grp HARD FIBERS Current Situation tho Unltd Btate. Notwithstanding this end an anticipated fullmg-cff in imports into the so viet Union and Eastern Europe world congump tion of natural rubber is expected to inatuto by about five percent. This Improvement contrasta with a prospectiro sharp contraction in tho con sumption of the synthetic product particularly in the United Stater. Natural rubber boxpected to account for about ano-half of the total United State rubber market in 1984 Tho declino in natural rubber production to cxpected to continuo in 1984, but the drop this year i expected to be only about 20 000 tons. It is concentrated in Indonesia, bere the cost of Hving remain high and many mall-balden hero abandoned rubber tapping Hard fiber production doclmed in 1953 though the drop In output (noven percent) wus relatively mall. Production in the Far East (primarily abea) wu almost u largo u in tbo proviowe yler Among tho agero fibers al production in Afrie reached now peak but dropped therply m Brudl. The latter taken together with tho dochino in boboqnon production (prind pelly in Monco) accounted for most of the out of 20 porcont in Latin American output, TALE 87 HARD FDE WOD PRODOTTOT IT INH104 AT 1151 195 1150 11 #robert) TUNER Kreta 188 (119) 112 (120) Abaca of which Philippines Snel of which Br E. Afna. 105 (67) 780 (162) IU (123) 370 (103) 108 (95) 130 (110) 140 (200) (101) 104 (89) 360 (207) 945 (87) 123 (108) Heu quen of which enco. (80) 00 ES 20 Othr fibers 40 10 Won Total 570 070 070 685 140 ·TABLE BR HARD FID WORLD INTOTTA 1940 Ter 1931 1953 oll last year were on the wholo rather slugrish while comumption both of Aber and twinou heery Larger commercial purchaser may conse quently boospected this year through this increase may bo offeet by reduced sockpilo baylng Thodir poul of the Worlan henoquen cop as well as of orlting stock which amount to 40 percent of unndal production, is mainly dopendent on prices being et. rufticient discount to real to sttract buyers, and possible orna low çoough to allow riro ble ula to American padding mana facturer 310 North Amerka of which Abert Blal other 20 7 25 50 100 174 163 218 182 210 Western Europe of whleh Abaca Bival, other 25 100 37 100 173 136 FARM MACHINERY 30 Japan. of which Abars glal, other 16 14 17 30 6 2 Other arou 28 20 No attempt Le mnado in the following noto to rofor to world production and export of tractors during the your under rorlek since it has not been poesible during the put year to collect statistics an prodaotion and import figurou The treatment la confined to cortain wipeots of fart machinery aso in tho nowly developing regions whero mechu nization propente spockel problemı. TOLD TOTAL 170 300 820 Trude in hand fiber wu unoren in 1933. Umted Kingdom and Japanero Imports Inorouped offmetting to a considerable extent e sherp con traction in Imports into North American On the other hand North America imported greater weight of cordago. Tho total offtake of hard Aber in 185 Including *pproximately ten per cent going into the strategia stockpile has not boen far out of lino with current production The improving opply requirements balanco in hard fibers ru roflected in much readier pod cer la 1953 than in 1952. The only important poles redactlane occurred La Blexican benequen in which the balk of tho produceti stocb is now to be found und In Bruillan vinal stocks of which, held by tbo Banco do Brazil, hero been Dearly all cloured foDowing foreign exchango con colon. Near and Far East As a general statement it to true that tractor gambert med lagriculturo increased in the Mar and Far East daring 1953/81 but the increuse, Oxcept in one or tro countries wu not largo. Blany of the leur and Far Fastern countries wbero mechanintion of wriculture has during the pset for your been purred with vigor Art DOK tending to consolidato tho poaltion rather than to increase imports. This consolidation in moet * is taking the form of greater attention to all those matter which experience has abowa uro major factors in the operational contı of mochan ical farming and clearing and subsequent soll preparation prior to colonization of now area, Breakdowns in the field and early deterioration of tractor and machines art gonenlly « revult of Inoxport wo which in turn, i and by inn ficient training of local openton flok kerice and repair men, and all personnel bo aro directly concemped in mechanical cultination programa, Bloxt countries in these regiona kare im plemented program to impart knowledgo to personnel bo handle modern furtaing equiposent In a few counted thoro rach program hero not yet commenced planu hart bren Inwn up for early implementation of this training Prog ress in this fell is not as rapid u is needed bot government and carmen have bocomo awsto through experience of the auks of high opera Outlook A further moderate decline lo prodaction is expected in 1852. At thoame tirse the commer ciel demand for hard Aben mey very well increzo though stockpile tequirements will probably be lorer lezring total demand more or lew unchang ed and powlbiy muttle in exces of current produc tion. In sboa e mejor serin) in demand by Vaited States rope mapnfacturers could lead to . shortening of rapplier of the requirements of other areas, Dow bigber than at any time since the nu are maintained. Unlted States parchases of 141 ·TABLE 88 NATURAL XD SINTHETIO RUDDER ESTIMATED BUYTLY/DBAD POSITIOX IN 1063 AND 1084 ITEX 1113 105 Tidwirte in Production : Natural Synthotsa Total 1 750 931 1 701 1 733 717 140 Conmption Matun! Agatbotio Total In conjunction with tho Hoo In conatumption, tho drop in the output of natural rubber may re duce the orcome of production to only 24 000 too, maler Tolomo than in any prostoru postuar yer Production of tho rynthotlo product is om poctod to decline almost in lino with consumption requirements. In Norembor 1053 « Commolesta was rot up in the United Stata to receiro bida from prisato buyen for tho gorernment ofred menthotic rubber plants. The Common will roport its fadingo ly Janaury 1850 The long term demand for rubber buod on riding standards of living and on the dovol opment of now usor in roodway and upholstery 1s favorable. If the propont porloo relationship bet wroen the natural and synthetlo products to maintained natural rubber I havo the opportu nity of particpating in any ospension in 1865/80. On the other hand recont prices havo had a dlo couraging offoot on higher cost produotion. Somo fupply way therefore baro to be drawn from stocka to fulah roguirement I 703 1 838 481 1842 Indicated balancs for ondition to govorim and commercial socke Saturat Bynthotio TOTAL , IU OT 170 244 8 10 ROC Mot International Nabbe Rods Oroep HARD FIBERS Current Situation the United Staten Notwithstanding this and an antiepated falling-off in importa into the So. viet Union and Eastern Europe world conmption of natural rubher is oxpected to increuso by about fivo percent. This improvement contrasto with a prospectivo kurp cantruction in the con sumption of the cyathotic product particularly In tho United Stata atunud rubber is expected to account for about one half of the total United Btata rabber market in 1954 Tho doelino in natural rubber production to oxpected to continue in 1851, but the drop this year l oxpected to be only about 20 000 tone. It concentrated in Indonesia, where the cost of Living remains high and many mel holdens hero abandoned rubber tapping Hard Aber production declined in 1863 though tho drop la outp (poran percent) wu rolatively mal Production in the Far East (primarily abaca) vu almost u largo us In tho prorious your Among tho agero Albon steel production in Afna reached . Dow peak bat dropped ibarply in BruiL The latter takon together with tho dealno in honoquon production (prindpally in modoo) Accountod for most of the out of 20 parcont in Latin Amortand output TADL 87 Hup Hot TYORLD PRODUCTION Ira 1146.115 ured 11II 101 1053 (rathbary) Tu certo tu 108 (87) 169 (13) (100) Abaa of which Philippines B! of which Dr E Aria 300 130 (110) HO (100) 87 (167) 16 (123) 370 (163) 103 (05) (191) 104 Hepoquen. of vilch Badoo (108) (67) 60 8 10 Otbor Aben 570 070 OTO OS BB WOULD TOTAL 140 ·TAD AS lanp Fipalloren IYOKTU ITTY 1930 Ater 1131 1131 1153 310 270 North America. of which Aban. 81 other sul last year were on the whole rather sluggish while consumption both of fiber and twino ng heery Larger commercial parchant may cotxoc quently boorpected this year though this increaso may boolset hy redacod otockpilo buying Tho dlo poal of the Bloxlan heneguen crop 4 roll as of oxlsting stock, which amount to 40 percent of annual production, is mainly dopendent on pricos boing at soffiolent discount to sloal to attract buyer and poolble oron low crough to allow sizeable ala to American pedding manu facturons 57 174 100 1t5 210 103 210 Western Eropo of which Abant Seal other 26 100 37 143 173 130 PLAM MACHINERY 20 Japan of whleh, Abea 8.l, other 16 14 17 23 6 Other arte 2-3 2.3 No attempt in medo in the foBowing noto to rofor to would production and export of tractoru during the year ander rorlow noco It has not been ponible daring the past year to colloot statistics on production and import figures The treatment is confined to certain spects of farma machinery uto In tho nowly doveloping regions wboro mecha nization provonte podal problems WORLD TOTAL 470 620 Trade in hard fibery mu mevon In 19.33. United Kingdom and Japanese Imports Increased offwetting to considerablo estent « bar com traction in Imports into North Americe. On the other hand North Ameria imported . greater weight of cordage. Tho total offtake of hard Abers in 1983 Including approximately ton per cent going into the strateglo stockpir hu not been fur out of line with current production The Improving rapply requirements balance in hard fibeti mu reflected in much steadlet pel cea in 1053 then in 1952. The only Important price roductions ocurred in Werlaun hopequen in which the balk of the producent stock le now to be found ind in Brazilian alal ttocks of which bold by the Banco do Brull baro beon nearly all cleared following foreign exchange con tunion. Near and Far East As a general statement it is true that tractor numbers tood in agrioulturo Increasod in the Nour and Far East during 1053/64 but tho increas oxcopt Ono ot wo countries wu not largo. Many of the Near and Far Rustem countries whoro mechanization of agriculture bas during the past for year heen purred with vigor ero bow tonding to consolidato tho position rather than to increano imports. This consolidation in Dort memy is taking the form of greater stontion to all those metten which experlonco has shown aro ma for factors in the operational costs of mechan ical furming land clearing and subeoquent soil proportion prior to colonization of now areu. Breakdow in tho field and early doterlontion of tnctors and machines are generally « result of inexpert ass which in tum, is caused by Insuf fielent training of local openton fleld servlet and repair men, and all porsonnel who are directly concerned in mochanical cultivation prognum. Most countries in these region. hato now im plomented programs to import kowego to personnel who bundlo moriern farming equipment In few countries where Ioch programı karo not yet commenced plane have been dom up for cuts Implementation of this training Prog stus in this field is not u npid as in norded bat gorernments and farmon hero locomo swaro through experience of the war of high opera Outlook A further moderate decline in production is expected la 1054 At tho mimo time the commer clat demand for hard ben sy very vel locity though stockpile requirements will probably be lower leaving total demand more or less unchang edend poolbly a little in eru of current prodac thos La aber major retiral in demand by United Statet ropo tangisettureTI could lead to & shortening of mupplies, if the requirements of other ariu nor higher than at any timn since the mr are maintained. United Stater purchases of 141 ·tfonal coats and the importance of accelerating the provision of improved technial instruction Ferm machinery dealers in most countries aro not placing their bannepe on wounder founda tions and are giving thens of tholr equipment bet. ter facilities for training operaton a more continu ou apply of roplacement parts together with after wla rervice Those countries that hero been autious in adopting povered machinery for agricultural uso 10 DOT keching advice from financially disintet ested authorities with a flow to mechanuzing their operations on limited scale in areas that appear stable for this method of farming Totoy has continued to mechanzo at probably the highert nte of all countries in there are und in fact is one of the main markets for the western world a machinery manofacturers. Verer theless It has becomo apparent in this country that tho more acquisition of tnctors and related machines is not the role wolution to its farming problem. Various training centers are being established which, in tom, -Il Laits Ln reducing the high repair bills and the down time of trac tors and equipment from which gorernment me chinery programs and farmors havo not escaped. The extensive floods in Iraq destroyed many cereal crops and Inundated mach other anbile Land. This bw led to a reduced demand for the vertices of government od prinately owned tractor combines and agricultural equipment. It will almo probably affect the importation pro. grum of agricultural machinery but we prorado an opportanlts for D concerned with mechan ization in the country to atch ap with uten in completing adequate repair and strice shop rererres of spares and recruitment and training of competent mechanic and operatori, Some of the Indian States »bere Large tructor feetrere boilt op for the reclamation and til age of new Land prior to settlement are now disposlog of rurplu traetor and machinery to private owner One of there stato governments through its established rorluhopy (1 now able to offer new orners of agricultural machinery adequate repair vertices rbich too often were lacking in the past The State of Cttar Pradesh for instance be for some rear been training farm machinery mortahop personnel as well 41 field operator and the benefits of bering a reuerroir of killed men to manage operate and repair meclunnal equipment are now being felt The Pakistan Gorenment is sponsoring mechan imal coltiration in certain relected lo particular thuis occurring under the suspices of the Thal Development Authority in Test Pakis tan. Paruto farmers in the country are becoming increasingly interested in mechaniation of their farms u better fralitla ero mado available through local deulen representing machinery manufac turers Ceylon is experiencing the usual early dificulties wrociated with the introduction of mechanbuation, bat by its operation through co-opantives and pools increasingly efident wo is being obtained from the imported equipment. Those who aro raspoonble for management operation and ropelr of the new tractors and related machines uro o generally aware of the skill that must be acquired to keep equipment running efficiently and at economlo operational costa. Burma has introduced mechanization autiously but has now realized that tncton an anirt to bring Largo areas of proriously cultivated land back into production. Additional shipments of mech anhed oqulpment hero recently been received. The shortago of draft animale also tends to eccelerato tho 0of powered machinery Thul land, Indoneola and the Philippines have con tinued to increu tolr agricultural tractor numbers to improro methods of operation and to roduce operational costa. During the penod under rorlow an increasing number of countries in there regions haro pald greater attention to tho Improvement of loli genous farm hand toob and animal dawn oquip. mont and to the introduction of woleotod improvod typer Bummarizing tho position in tbolar and For East it an be cald that good progreu bas been made in most countries during 1953/54 in provid ing facilities and training needed for the offectivo Une and milntenanco of mechanized equipment in agriculture FAO has rondorod major wat ance in this respect in the following countries Ing Inn, Ethiopia Afghanlatan, Pakistan, India Ceslon, Burm. Additional effectiro enfstance hus aboo been giren under the Colombo Plan. Bilateral agencies here aloo been actire both in supplying and dring Instruction in the manage ment use and maintenance of needed agricultan! equipment Latin America In Latin Amerlan, alt bough precis statutler are not arallable fum mechanization has ordently continued to expand at . considerable nte in Dort countries. The following exampler may 144 ·mertT to Mostrate the most important developmente Argentina continual to alete large amounts of foreign archange for imports of farm equipment mathy tractors. It hu been esti mated that the 1953 exchange allocations will in Ten the country touctor part by some 17 000 mitt laking the necemury aloruro for reite of this mould represent an increase of Daily 50 percent over the trctor pest at the end of 1852 in Brazil, tho linistry of Agriculturo her obtained overal credits from oficial Bruillan banka and from foreign fart equipment manufac tartit importa permitted to increase the tractor park to wome 10 000 units by the end of 1833. Chito tractor importa emounted to upproximately 1650 aaſti, . nto which it is intended to maintain osa tho nort elght youn under the now Agricultan! Development Plac km to como into operation. In Uruguay the number of truc tors norted to over 18 000 about 2,000 Doro then in 105, and it is considered that the country will be ablo to limit further imports to replace mento dnet requirements are stried under pret ent conditions. Another important development to be recorded in that soce 1953 Argentina and Bradl lato becomo prodaomn of power oquipment. The int of these countries hus atabied. National Inc tor Plant which aims to produce 50 percent of the yearty requlrements by 1938 In Braull, European company has established . plant which expects to produco 1000 tractori per rar Developments to establith mechanization on * wounder best and to make machinery available to larger groups of farmers have been compan tirely slow and as far u le known, limited to for countries. Some of the larger importer roch a Argentina Brazil Chilo end Unguy haro established import Umltations as to types of equipment to as to ensure that only machinery sulted to local conditions is imported and to arold an excentro direnification which woull mato servicing and ropains dificult In somo countries, mainly Argentina apd Brull . certain proportion of the oxchange alineation must bo uued for imports of spero parte Farm machinery poola here been onlarged in Brazil, Chilo Peru und Guatemala Cuba has launched . program uiming at the establishment of 125 pool ono in och municipality and in 1063 started machinery {mports to provide them with oquipment. In most countries where pools out their faculties and also used to train tractor driver and mochania In contrast to the Far sad Near East Latin American countries havo rought Fery littlo orter Dal technical epistence in connection with gri cultural mechanization, though the problems of maintenance wd cildent uso are by no means wolved in most countries. FOREST PRODUCTS In 1953 tho wecond world forestry Inventory ru arried out by FAO It showod that the growing stork of rork forcats in uso Tus somo 90 000 millon cabro motory of which 87 100 million werd coniferous species and 38 000 million broadleared spoclon. While the distribution of forest resour cen la rather udovon between regione, the distri bution of forests in wo or uocemiblo la oten mora stlingly more Regione portaing vust unex ploited forest resources are pet importer of forest products whilo otbon much Europe having practically no une pbitod forests and net oxporting regions Economic growth in Europa und North i de alto Andor Tablo IV and I يطارUt TALLE 9 ESITUATED DinD1104 of WORLD. Form Actions (option Tota? torrent FA Urex ure theke mok Coafer in torrit uten torts ploited ve RH 1 IDA und IN LE Pro Lapt 1 len beton Free 1 Heteret 13:11 6 87 100 294 1 118 HH 703 SO $47 Purope U XXR. North Ameti Latin America Alok A heille are 311 16 1 OJ 38 +1 66 39 0+ 10 120 80 115 TOS 17 4-07 6 120 3 250 700 417 302 IT 0 21 0 1 ORLD TOTAL 1 DB 141 1 174 200 1 177 2 70 18 143 ·TAD DO EITKATD GBOWLTO froUI DY TH) YORD, POEM or to Arts of fornite in the Latimet POMBE took per hectaro Tot growing rock HOT Non Conlloy UD poche Mon Otellot You copith peohy KIRL hedou Ch, vit 10 wla ko 70 80 190 80 100 70 Europo UB8 R. Morth Artorio Latin Sinatra Atrion ADA Pacifio arny 170 10 1 0 90 I L3 165 10 DO 115 505 17 R888783 0 000 O 000 1 000 1 100 100 6 000 00 100 70 90 05 3 000 3 000 8 000 7 000 1 400 800 800 000 16 000 10 8 000 18 400 1 000 40 120 75 1 TOLD TOTAL 009 BI8 1 17 05 78 07 100 19 200 90 000 America has favored intenstvo sylrloulturo end the optablahment of highly developed wood con Verting industries. In the lea doveloped regione of the warld conditions for the dovelopments hare hitherto been lacklog but oulturz and aca nomio progres is now giving riyo to higher than dards of wood consumption and crosting the con ditions for a fuller tune of indigenous formet reacur in the past bringing in ita trata rufnod water rogimon and dograded oil. An oplightanod for est polioy is concetriod not only with tho world. prosent and future needs of tho woulth that grow in tho foronto It is an iategral part of a bruador lood utlhzation policy taking into socoount agri oultural and stock nung noods roll coppervation, wator regime and shimato The oxploited forests in the world have for tho post your provided for como 1010 to 1430 million cublo motors of conifer and broadlou rod round wood for 2 urou About 80 procent of tho total rolamo of world wound wood production has boon for industrul unor tho rout being fuelwood, Total foning of coniferous and brodeaved roundwood in roporting oountries covering about 12 peront of tho vodd outpat in 1051 and 1952 eppour in Table 92. Tho 1053 wood forest inventory shows that the world, forests er potentially capable of fur nubing • plautiful Bow of forort products for a world population much higher than that of today Of 3 000 million hectares of woodland, loos than third ard now diploltod of the immense unor ploited rearvot of standing timber la tho would today orer 600 milhan boctarea aro Lopondolo at tho prosent time. The invontory emphasize anco gain tho contrut bot woon the world 1 oxploited conferous forests where growth and down roughly balance and the under-oxploited broad leuvod forests in the Tho three prodaminantly coniferous regrant, Europe the UBER and North Amoria, compelo a third of the world, population but less than two-anths of the worlds woodlands got betwoen them thoy locount for 70 percent of the remove from the world for Forests uro ranomablo resourcou Given hull ful management they can ylold annual cope in perpetuity On the other hand, those innala abilo wote an all too bully be destroyed As history has shown, recklest minute of the foresta is not simply a mattor of depleting the forest apital the consequences for tho climate the mai und the water tegimo can be atastrophic, Artu of the world which in foober time coded bolo drillation today rurtain but e primitive level of lifo u rerult of reckles datretton of forets Recent Production Change Changes in tho voluto of total falling in the world ere duo primarily to fluotdating produotion In Europe and North America. There tho cheng ing market tuation may couro comddannblo finotuation in the rolamo of output of tho main producing and exporting countries Dot at the time when the change in tho market teko plao, bat . year or to Leter This to the result of tho long time log botsoon tho sotua) falling operations and the cal of the final productu Boorning market onditions in ono your us for instanco fa 1851 lod to u obzouble stue in tho volumo of folling. Later with .dodining market in 1952, the volume of fellinge nu beurly reduced et tho samo timo us Industria bolt up stocks of finished prodacts davlag Largely on that ochsting roppiles of now materiah. In other regions the Town vero momo what dir forent from thoro in Europe and North America 145 ·In the 18.B.R. tho program of a steadily Inceu Ing volume of fellinga la malng progress and al thongh fow otical data aro annilable there is no son to believe that the folAllment of the plan hus not falon far behind tho pot target. In Jrpen, Asles largest producer tho orer Incrouing Deeds for rood for industrial purposes has led to . ready decline in the production of fuel cod. In Latin Ameria, Africa and Oceania mono ortendo and bettor the of forest resources togother with increasing requirements for most forest products in bringing about a steady thongh alow res in the lovel of output TAL 01 Acorn LIFORN AND TRADE BALANCE Acobla tortu Xot ind, la totest products criters Totoo I Not splotto 1050 31) duction of uw wood and pulp and peper end also to larger now mappila of induttrial round wood In Europo on the other hand como docino from the lovel in 1952 may have taken placo prodoction of uwlog romo only insignificantly and that of palpwod and pitpropo doclined notably in tho northern European countna. Twith tho decline in the European roundiwood production offrotting partly the rise in North Amona und alight nur which took place in other regions world production of round wood may have rleon in 1053 by somo 20 million oublo moteri. World trudo in round wood which already in 1872 had felt the downrd trond in the forest products market and had declined from tho high level in 1951 by somo 3.0 poroont foll furthern ther sharply in 1963 by rongo 24 percent from the Lovel In 1952 Thla continpom fal w do pri marlly to reducod trado in pot prope and pulpwood in Europe and North Amoria which followed tho heavy stockpiling in 1851/62 and unfavorable marloot oonditions for forest producta in general in 1952. As to tuo development enco the ond of 1063 Europe • neod to roplenlah stock of raw materlal at tho millo dmultanoowly with a strong ourent demand for most forcat producta i bringing about . fair incroer in the falling of tho most impor tant producing countries. In North America on tho other hand the tom porary slowing down o domand and rising stocks of own wood and pulp produota hu w far lod to . mordowbat rodacod activity in tbo forests In other regions there sooms to be no change from the rather high lovel of activity that prorled around the end of 1053 The volume of fellings in the world may therefore bo otpooted to how womo further Heo In 10.54 M... ten Lectores rond 1$ 250 3 75 + 3 ! + Europo U88 R. North Amerion Latin Ameria Africa Anda ProAo Aroa 107 H111+ TOS 17 3 + trzport- xt Inport Cathnato Lowth 500,00 Roundwood Production figures for 1053 uro not yot anall able for tho mala pradacing reglors but on tho beals of sottored data e ullght rioo In the world rotund wood production in this year appears probablo In North Amerian favorable cronomir conditions throughout the year lod to riding pro TAL 02. VOILD TOTAL FebrOS or Common UD BLODLAD ROUDTOOD 1951 sd 1952 farop u meer leg Malpood ad pitpro Other dutela 7004 Tuoreed Titel i DID ODIO 1031 1952 101 1951 1991 1053 191 1051 1151 1st Lith the stars 775 1400 84.5 10 RO Europe U 88, R.1 North and Contml Amor South Americz Atra. 120 O 00 O 11 6 39 11 0 40 0 10 8 11 16 11.3 400 17 9 048 1500 91 1 1114 2 91 0 100 0 47 111.4 1040 120 400 6 1229 00 11 4 3 01 06 01 110 0 303 O 303 4 196 000 DD 8 11 1 17 Oceania 104 102 4 10 B 07 07 02 05 04 207 TORLD TOTAL 400 6 4819 1703 I KI I 1 1124 1 O tocm TAO Tote Tretot 145 ·Torte 0 ETIKAIZD G20 LO SMI DI ITO Dr Forrita De 1st of foot la 14 Drtboste pronto rock per trotare Total porto stock Pedro Com 10 puh Contors Ko contien 10 Cofeta Coatien pour X. Lucien Cn. r het Lan, NO 13 26 300 10 100 1 890 3 000 3 000 Europe USER Torth Atorno Latin Ameria Ana ASH Poze Ara 90 115 205 17 LO 40 19 5 100 70 O 000 3) 000 5 đ I 200 100 6000 mo 9 on 000 16 Om 9 m) 6 000 13 400 1 000 155 15 7 go 12 400 WORLD TOTAL 318 1 17 95 JT 100 38 000 W 000 in the part bringtog in fta tnto riped mater regimes and degraded soul An enlightened for est paliey II Concerned not only with the world's procent and futuro needs of the Talth thet grows In the forests It 18 an integral part of a broader land utilization poblet taking into account agri cultural and stock nlmag neede poil constration, nter-regime and chate. The exploitod forests in the world here for the past toan prorided for mouro 1410 to 1430 million cubic meters of conifery and broadlared round rood for all der About BJ precent of the total rolamo of morld roand mood production has been for industrial cures the rest being fuelwood. Total fellings of ooniferow and broadlared round rood in reporting countries covering about 92 percent of the world output in 191 and 1 appeur in Tablo 92. Amerla bus farored interatto shriculture and the entablishment of highly developed wood com. Terting industrien. In tbe la developed repous of the world conditions for these developments hare hitherto been lacHng, but cultural and economie progresa la por gfring rise to bigber standards of wood consumption and creating the con dations for fuller use of indigenotu forest rooms 065 The 1853 world forest inventory show that the world, forests are potentfully apable of fur nichlog - plentiful for of forest products for a world population mach higher than that of todos Or 3,900 million bectares of woodlande, hus than a third art or expbited. Of the immedte unex ploited TENTTY of standing timber in the ruld today OTET On million bretares are aceable at the present time The intentary emphastat. Once min the contrast treen the rulis exploited cool feruos foreste wbere growth and dnia roughly balance and the andererpsalted broad leured forests un are The three prodominantir coniferous regions Europe the USSR. and lorth Ameria comprise a third of the rould's population, but less than two-fifths of the root's woodlands get between them they account for 0 percent of the removals from the world, for etti. Forests are repenhle stroara. Giren il fal management they an el anoel cups In perpetoitr On the other hand, there mala Wet an all too wis be destrored. As bistory ho oborn, reckles mitme of the forests is not smph . matter of deplet mg tbe forest apital the courequences for the imate the most and the nater regime an be atastrophic Areas of tbe vold bch in farmer tipti did xbole drilizations today furtain but • pimntre letel of Bfe ur retalt of reckless destruction of fortu Recent Prodaction Changes Change in the malome of total feelings in the world are due primerths to fluctuating production in Europe and lorth Ameria There the chang ing market station muy amo considerablo fluctuation in the rolume of output of the main productog and exporting countries not at the time when the change in the market takes place, botajear or tro later Thit the retalt of tho long time lag between the actua) felling operations and the sale of the final product. Booming market ovoditions in one year w for imtanco in 1851 led to a stroalite rivo in the rolure of fellngl Later with a doctining market in this, the molume of fe Dinge wou hearly reduced at the same timo u odustries bollt up stocks of Anlabed products dorzog largely on their cristte oppbor of naw material In otber regions thoroukoot reto somewhat dir fertat from those in Europe and Sarth Amena 144 ·In the U8.8.R. tho program of steadily increu ing rolumof ſelling is making progref and a though few oficial data are irailable there is the son to believo that the folAnment of the plen has not fallen far behind the vot target In Ja pan, Asia largest produces the eter lacteuing Deeda for wood for industrial purposes has led to s steady decline in the production of fuel ood. In Latin America Africs and Oceania, Tooro ertemico and better uno of toteut tources, together with increasing regalements for most forest products, is bringing about • Bendy although slow rico lo tho lovel of outpat TANLE91 Ach Font Ayo TWE BALATO TOTOY Liceul testit Kattrude in I tuet Ko producto I и plotted)1954-5) Terenu daction of Ban rood and pulp and paper and slo to larger now mupplies of industrial round rood In Europe on the other hand some decline from the level in 10. may have taken place production of uwlog rou only insignificantly and that of palprod and pltprope declined notably in the northern European countries With the decline in the European roundwood production offietting perth the rise in North Amends and alight rises which took place in other regions world production of roundwood way here fluen in 1053 by somo 20 million cubio meten. World trado in roandwood, which already in 1952 bed felt the down and trend in the forest producte market and had declined from the high level in 1931 by pomo 8.5 percent fell furthern ther sharpis in 1053 brg romo 24 percent from tho lovel in 1952. This continuou fall wu duo pri marlly to reduced trade in pitprops and pulpwood in Europa and North America which folowed tho berry stockpilling in 1961/62 and unfavorable mertrt conditions for forert products in general in 1952 As to tuo development doco the end of 1253 Europos neod to roplenish stocks of raw material at tho mulla almultaneously with strong current demand for most forest products to bringing about . falr increato in the folling of tho most impor tant producing countries. In North Amerla on the other hand, the temporary slowing down of demand and ridng stoca of een wood and pulp products her to for lod to comowbat reduced activity in tho fortate. In other regions there seems to bo no chango from the rather bigh level of actirity that proralled around the end of 1953 The rolamo of fellings in tho world war therefore bo orpected to show romo furtbar rao la 1954, VA. alla CY 10 +6 Europe U & 8 R. orth Americ Latin America Africa Aula Pucido aron 00 116 105 17 ***** 107 - ܐ ܐ ܐ ܐ 3 + pet Terts ut torports Edimate Iw thn 10,000 Roundupood Prodaetioa Aguren for 1853 uro not yet Anali able for the main prodaoing roglom but on the bune of souttered data, a slight riso in the world round wood production in this year appears probube In North America, favorable economnir conditions throughout the year lod to rising pro TAILA 01. WORLD TO FELLDYOS O Cormous WD BOADILATED Rood WOOD 1981 t 19 Jawbone w met leo Pupu od pito Other handwrial Tutu Toal tour PEROR 1951 1157 1151 1191 101 1937 1031 1981 1151 1931 die weitert 19 ? Furopo U 6BR) North and Centml Amor Routh Amen. Alice 85 7 130 2000 215 79.5 100 100 11 31 40 0 17 O H8 1500 OL O 180 0 3D 100 18.6 11 16 190 0 0 06 01 . 07 1040 335 0 +03 6 189 Il 4 119.4 2400 SO 1984 1396 000 99 $ 11 1 05 01 8% O- 39 30.3 10 8 17 490 Ocuenta 104 O 14 08 04 07 103 4 107 World TOTAL 108 B 431 9 1793 OO 696 2 691 1 1 312 + 1 69 TAO Tuntry Tourtoot. 145 ·TUH00 EDUATED GROVDYO STOC DE I... SOLD FOR DX U Lethputri Litt of fornite in die took per totalt Totd mour stock FOOOX Coallar Non Onitsu AD folos Cotton X bonitan Contfer N waffen AT poche Ik harlene Cum valok 100 10 100 Europe UBER Torth America Latin Amena Alca 75 300 170 10 1 20 85 90 20 . 113 130 16 10 00 116 SOB 17 120 70 60 60 100 TO 0 15 A. 0. let 8 000 5 800 800 30 000 3 000 # 000 13 000 5 000 10 600 1 300 8 000 200 100 7 000 8 000 6 000 19 400 18 400 200 800 1 000 40 110 70 Peclio Arte WOLLD TOTAL 600 818 1 117 86 76 57 100 38 000 00 000 America has faroved intensivo y sioulture and the establishmont of highly doveloped wood com verting Industries. In the low devolopod regions of the world conditions for the developments haro hitherto been lacking but cultural and oconomlo progress is now giving rise to higher stan dards of wood comumption and creating tho con ditions for fuller tro of indigenou forest renour ¢¢ in tho pest bringing in ito train ruined water regime and degraded voil. An onlightoned for cat policy is concerned not only with the world. prevent and faturo noods of the wealth that grows In the forests It is an Integral part of a broader land utilization polloy taking into soccotit uri cultunl and stock ratung nooda, soil conueryztian, water regimo and climato The orploitod forests in the world havo for tho purt you providod for some 1410 to 1430 millon ouble moter of conlfon und broadleaved round wood for all the About 05 precont of tho total valumo of world round wood production has been for Industrial tea, tho rart being fuelwood. Total felling of coniferous and broadlouvod round wood la roporting countries covering about 02 porcent of the world output in 1931 and 1959 appour in Tablo 82 The 1963 world forest Inventory show that the world forests aro potentially apable of fur nlohing - plentiful flow of forest products for a world population much higher than that of today Of 3.900 million hectares of woodlands lou than a third are now oxploited. Of tho Immoneo unor ploited rewrve of standing timber in the world today ovor 600 million bootaren aro accewblo at the present time Tbo Inventory emphasize onco again the contrast between the world s erploited canlferous forent. wbere growth and drain rooghly balance and the under-exploited brord laured forests in time Tho threo prodoroinantly coniferous region, Europe the UBAR and \orth Americm compriso a third of the world. population but leu than two-finlu of the worlds woodlands got betroen them they account for 70 percent of the removal from the world for Forests aro rene bilo resource. Glyon ful management they can yteld annual crops in perpetoity On the other han invala ablo anots aan all too cuil bo destroyed AJ history has shows, recklen minute of tbe forests is not simply a matter of depleting the forert apital tho connequences for the dimate the roll and the nater regime an be atastrophie. Areas of the world which in formaer times andled wholo cirilization, today sustain but a primitive level of Ufo artralt of recklen destruction of forert Recent Production Changes Changes in tho volume of total folingo In tho world aro duo primerlly to factuating production in Europe and North Amorla Thero the chang ing market dituation may caur copuldenblo flactuation in the volume of outpat of the main prodacing and oxporting countries not at tho timo whon the change in the market takou plocou, but a your or two lator This is the result of tho long time lag botwoon tho actual feling operation and thoal of the final produota Booming marlot conditions in one year u for instance in 1951 led to i pireable rise in the rolomo of folling Lator with a declining market in 1952, the volume of felling nu harlly reduced at the smo timo u industries built up stocks of Anabod products, drawing largely on thefr existing pupplies of naw material In other region the rede word somowbat dir ferent from those in Europe and North Ameria 144 ·In tho 1.8.8 R tho program of a steadily Inarcas ing rolame of fellings is making progresa end al though for official data aro unllablo there batea pon to belloro that the fulllloont of the plan but not fallen far behind tho set target In JA pen, Asle largest prodacer tho ever lacreasing Beeds for rood for industrial purposes bus led to a steady decline in the production of faelwood. In Latin Amorla Afria and Oanis, moro ortenaivo und botter uro of forost remorcea together with increasing requirements for most forost prodacte, in bringing about . stoudy Although slow rive in tho Lorel of output TAI ACCEROLE FOST AND TRADE BALANCE Acoche foresta Not trude LA tored RICCIOy Not .tplotted product In arte II 31) duction of am wood and pulp and paper and eleo to larger now supplies of industrial round wood In Europe on the other hand some declino from the level in 1951 may have taken place production of uwlogs roso only insignificantly add that of palprod and pitpropos declined notably in tho northern European countries. With the doolino In tho Europoen rood wood production offrotting party the rise in North America and slight rises which took place in other regions world prodaction of roundwood may havo rloon in 1053 by romo 20 million cuble motori Vorld trdo in round wood which already in 1004 hod felt tho downward trend in tho forost prodacta market and had declined from the high Lovel in 1851 by somo 3.5 percont fell further nther sharply in 1963 by somo 24 percent from the lovol in 1952 Thla continuou fall wu dao pri marlly to reduced trdo in pitprops and polpwood in Europe and North America which followed the heery stockpiling in 1051/62 and onferorable market oonditions for foreet products in general in 1952 Au to tuo dovolopouent place the ond of 1053 Europos nood to replenish moclo of raw material at tho mill. almaltandously with strong current domand for moont farcat producto u bringing about . fxlr increase in tho fellings of the most impor tant produding comtilen. In North Ameria on the other hand the tomporary clowing down of domand and Holog stocks of Awn wood and pulp producto hu w far lod to comowbat roduced activity in the forests. In other regions there soom to bo no change from the ratber high level of activity that pronallod around the end of 1953 Tho volume of follings in the world may therefore bo espooted to show somo further rimo in 1031. LL A heter 3 75 + 3 1+ Europo U 8.8 R. North America Latin Amerla Africa Aske Pucido aroa 10 350 10 00 116 103 17 107 + or sport, net import Lutipit tho 10,0 Roundupood Production figures for 1853 are not got avail able for the main producing regione, but on tho buls of souttered data alight seo in tho world round wood production in this year appour prob. ble. In North Amoria, furonable economir conditions throughout the year lod to Heing pro TALA 04 WORLD TOTAL PILOTOS or Coxirmou ATD BROADLI YO ROUNDWOOD 1081 AND 1962 Siwlope Pup Other had trial Tor le prope rood Yosriod To Do HCOLON 1131 1151 1151 1067 1051 1031 1141 1151 10t 1031 Hitler bu ni 11 ) Puropo U B. BR.1 orth und Control Amor Bouth Amorim, Alna data Ostunia 33 126 0 14 0 2000102 3 11 8 124 JO O 03 10 4 10 8 GAB 100 00 0 06 01 20 0.8 06 01 11 0 400 18 5 11 1. 17 12 17 1800 01 1 110 4 DID 1000 647 110 4 09.3 10+ 0 3300 405 6 10 9 2100 2000 3084 113 6 co o 00 11 1 BO 3 07 03 03 105 4 207 WORLD TOTAL 480 8 101 O : הן 10 g 0 0 390.1 081 1 1 212 1 320 9 Latitt. Goto TAO Torertry Testeet. 148 ·FIGURE XVII — Prices of Forest Products (First Quarter 1950 100) ROUNDWOOD 00 SAWN WOOD po 100+ 197 200 1.50 150 H 100 110 DO 1 1751 Wertera Omery C Uute kupem. he Sutta 1551 12 Warto barney Set C Unknd Kharen Llul . Un satu Anna A A Aur PAPER PLYWOOD WALLBOARD 230 BI 200 130 B2 100 LEI ER HO 1151 1952 180 1 2 Ste 21 Varted Kingda 1 U KURO 20 ht 175) 1951 Sorint J Fruxe 1952 USA1 1 t USA. WOOD PULP NOTES 00 Sports Wydar Sweet ,UK GULULA (new til 200+ UK W GAY wtore wind why nie #104. Not-Wurd . Palun bu LIUK1 In the 1K2 Out 1 wboard 11 feb 150 + A 100 Wow U1 KK St laxmi refe Wednote W Girony in » Wonder When I LA WHO 10 121 110 Uwin Shes Anna A Wort Gryt a Iulie J mu NATIN 4 US1 Hornet Trix mrt 11 122, I would pron, Koti 1.5.2 m 110 ·In 1932 the high caport and import prices obtainable in Enrope kant to domestlo pelece of roundwood gradnolly thing to mmpenalle levels. But when in 1032 International pelets fell domet tic price shored little or 110 change In 1933 they went utin higher in komo ruky Formerly boren in importing countries could cten ont the high cost of round wood importe lig dorpentle purchases et relatively low prices nor these w no much poenbility and in fact importa wito being used to control and bring down domestlo prices Tho apward trend in clomestic prices for gon etal roundwood held good for uswn longe too Tbo rimo lugged behind international prices for hwn wood, but when my wood prices began to fall in 1952 au tho scelt of consumeti ruantance Awn log producers still held out for high prices for their supplies. Consequentls mille muld not afford to lower mw rood prices further The Latter In fact baro tended to strengthen and aro quin close to the level wheto comment resistanco in 1031/03 led to the sharp fall in tho market Any farther Hoes may again seriously affect con romption. During the past four yean am wood hus, in each price cycle lost some ground which has not been recovered. ie, North America and Furope In Furope about one thinl of the region total production of W wool enten International trade Changing markot conilitions in there to region. hATO therefore traditionally at the pattern for the whole world tndo in mm rool From 19.30 to 1002 trenils of the sun wool markot in North America and Europe difered at tima Tho dorolopments in one region partly helancol those in the other and the world atua tion therefore showed smaller fluctuations then thoro in these two reklom separately From the end of 1962 onwand the stabilization of post Korean fluctuations in demand and prices and the general progress of industrial activity and construction in most parts of the world led gradually to moro utisfactory and also more stable market conditions for LNT rood World output of tawn wood rome from the 1932 production of 28.5 million co.m. to 200 million co.m in 1953 . Der record figure Trade in cawn wood almo picked up and 4 com 17 million ou m in 1053 u against 23.5 million cum. in 1052, remaining however slightly below the record volume of 27 0 million oum in 1951 In Europe the larger out put and tnde were wood primarily to increaso Intro-European trade otporta to other conti nonts continued to doclino In North America the grong expansion of industrial activity to gother with continuing high lovel of building stim olated production Tho volumo of intra regional tnde did not chango perceptibly and the declino in orports to Europo was componated to como ortont by Largor o porto to other continente. In the U.S.B.R tho stendy rire of output was uued primarily to mout tho country's own over increasing noedı. In Latin America genenl ocosomic and trado difficultior hampered the production and trado of uwn wood during the first half of 1953. Towards the end of the year tho ditu tion slightly improvod, however and exports by tho main producing countne notably Brazil to the neighboring countries and to other cont! Dents whored some increer over the 1032 Folome The situation in genonl horoter remained lem atbfactory than in 1981 In other regions of the world the development of the production of ura wood in Japan wu ipe cually important. Rapid expansion of the country Indutral production, the hears backlog of bou ing requirements and repair together with stead ily grosing her howing requirements put . hary strain on the Japanero tax milling industry Although the output mas nained by some four TADL 03. WORLD Errom or ROUDFOOD ITX 1956 1931 1952 153 (pol.) Then a, m. Hoftwood logo Hardwood logu Pitprop Palpwood Poles, posto and pillingu 1 401 213 1 2 410 1 BA ? 10 7 2 11 40 012 034 O 57 0.00 1 10 + 10 2 20 O TO 0 0 WORLD TOTAL 14 4 20 18 10 43 14 70 Salont Wood Europeun and Worth Amerian production of conífcrot and broadleared um rood eccounts for some 00 to 63 percent of the total world out put OTTT 20 percent of the world a total osports and about 80 to 65 percent of the world. total importe Demand and consumption of an wood depend largely on the level of industrial ac tister and general economic and social conditbonus The market for uawn wood has therefore flocto ated more violently during the past year in those regions where the economie standards are highest 147 ·AGURE XVII — Prices of Forest Products (First Quarter 1950 – 100) NOUNDWOOD 20 JAWN WOOD 100 20 150 150 Н. 100 tot 10 31 A 17 143 W tena Gera SC Verte Klagd. р UM Sa Arria, 11 tre 12 Wenn Gtrusy C Uwe Kler - A. o hath H Iw PAMK MYWOOD WALLIOAAD 210 B1 200 1. C2 100 B2 100 100+ EI E2 10 RO 161 131 e 177 Senten 2 C1 Uwe Kaptoet Ut Kregtes 20 Fax 1952 USAL C2 U.SALO ha J Perce. WOOD PULP NOTIS 400 Swetul UK urt W GT 14 : USA 2.00 UK premo W Go prep. . ponib. Anne der Hami Stor se trat. Hot Wateerd Sen rok Lab. , Preto bude pro Ukih bro LUK Liwet 1 wir ind i 120 - A Wor Hun Sen Weiterte hace Heche alt u korn W Garney wn, bent 132 1732 that hates of Ameria ryer Mrr fe US1 mi I om 11 431kurw Housem Sotto Krok 1: US 2 MAMI A Weitere Gry o fit Ir 116 ·In 1951 the high export and import prices obtainablo in Inropo lel to domestio prices of mudxood gradually rising to comparable herek. But when in 1039 intentional prices fell, domos tle piene showed little of no change in 1053 they went still higber in some cases Formerly bogenu in importing countries rould oren out the high cost of round wood importe by domestio purchases at relatively low pricct now thero was no much posibllity and lo fact importa roto Leing used to control and bring down domestic prices. Tho apward trend in domestio priecs for gen eral round rood held good for lawn toga too Tho Hee lugged behind international prices for Hun rood, but when a wood prices began to fall in 102 the remlt of contament resistance Awlog producera till hell out for high prices for their supplier. Consequently mille conkl not afford to lower *1 rood price further Tbo letter in fact hero tended to strengthen and are again close to the level whero comumer teltanco In 1931/03 led to the sharp fall in the market. Any further rives muy gain workoualy affect con romptlan. During the past four year uw procul har, in each pace cycle lost some ground which has not been recovered. jc North America ant Furope In Europo about one thinl of the region. total prolaction of min wood enter international trade Changing markot ronelltions in the txo regions haro thorofore traditionally set the pattom for the Wholo world trade in a wood From 1050 to 1062 tronxlx of the own wool market in North America and Europo dlffererl At timed Tho developments in ono region partly belancel those in the other and the world situs tion thereforo abord smaller fluctuations than those in these two rogions separatels From the end of 10.32 onward, the stabilization of post Korean fluctuations in demand and prices and tho general progress of industrlal activity and constructlon in most parts of tho world led gradually to mort etisfactory and also more stablo market condition for hawn wood World output of awn wood rose from tho 1052 production of 280 mllllon cu.m. to 28.5 million co.m in 1053 • not record figaro Trado in varn wood lo picked up and Toe somo 27 million cum in 1953 stegninst 23.5 million ou m. in 1862 romulaing however slightly below the rocord volume of 27.0 million cum in 1051 In Europe the larger out pat and trado word wood primarily to increano intr-European tndo oxports to other conti nants continued to dooline In North America tho strong orpunalon of industrial activity to gothor with continuing high lovel of building tim ulated production Tho volumo of intr-regione] tndo did not change porooptibly and the declino In exports to Europo was componated to come ortent by larger exports to other continenta. Lo the U.S.B.R tho steady rio of output was usod primarily to most the country's own over increasing Doods. In Latin America general oco nomic and trade dificultion bampered the produc tlon and trudo of am wood during the fint half of 1053 Towards tho ond of the your tho oltua tion slightly improvod howovor and oxports liv the main producing countria notably Brouil to the neighboring countries and to other conti renta shone samo increas Otor the 1962 yolumo The station in general however remained ber utfootory than in 1051 In other regiotu of the world the dovelopment of the production of urn wood in Japan was spe cally important Rapid expansion of the country industrial production, the bears backlog of hour ing requirements ind ropair together mth stad ils gruving ben housing requiroments put . beury etnin on the Japanese ur milling dustry Although the output nied by xoto four TAL. 92 WORLD EXTORTI OT ROUXDWOOD ITEX I. De 1031 1131 (prel.) VOL. 1 4011 431 3 101 410 Hofl rood logo Hardrood logu Patrop Pupood Pole porte and pilingan 1 10 3 6 4 10 4 901 121 670 Ova * 7 3 11 40 OBL) 0.2 11 OLD TOTAL 14 4 20 10 19 46 14 70 Saton Wood Europeta and North Amerlan production of con lerous and broadleared win rood Accounts for some 00 to 65 percent of the total world out put over 20 percent of the world total exports and about 8 to 85 percent of the world, total Importa. Demand and convenm ptfon of un wood depend largely on the level of industria ac tirity and general economic and soclal conditions. The market for HT Food hou therefore facta ated more Hotently during the past ytan in those reglona where the cronomic sandards are highest 117 ·apacity of the regions forest resources and the ww milling capacity of those rogion is for in orcers of the available nw material supplies. Steads progrew is being made hovorer In lem doveloped roglon. to raisotho aw miling po tential though the progress achloved i. legging bebind planned oxpansion becaur of lonited finan cial resources und labor and ny material din culties. Tho latter dopend on orploitation and transport problems in many caror bot yet wolvod. It would bo atopin to look for anooth and steady orolation of world demand for uw vood bocatum fte principal end anes tro Influenced by very diverso facton. In rocont year, howOTTT demand hue been ununully distorted by remaining roconstruction requirements the Korean War and stockpiling Wallo demand - continoo to stro It is doubtfol shother at pronont prices consumptfon per unit of output will bo malntained. In all markets bat epecially in Europe price is Dow the docisive footor Plyrood and Fiberboard percent from the lovel In 1059 and exports of ar softwood forbidden, the shortage of awn wood of all categorlea nu felt increasingly Payment dificulties mado any rabatantial increux la im ports dificult. While tho world martot for AWD rood u thos generally favorablo ít presented some diaquloting aspects. Stability ia price in 1853 does not appear to hart meceeded la eliminating the harm fal efforts of the 1950-62 fluctuations in prloes and demand and in restoring the pooltion of an wood un material. In most of the main con coming countries the consumption of an wood roso much moro slowly from the low lorek in 1852 than the rate of Industrial activity and even that of house building Thus, deep to the recovery of the rolame and trade of And Food In 1933 thero wu no ovidence of commemorate Increase in consumption Tho consumption of hwn wood in Europo and North America in the year 1050 to 1053 vaned considerably len than elther production or trado market fartuation being reflected mainly in stock verlation. The apparent consumption of mwn wood in Europo bad fallen from $1.5 million ca.m. In 10.50 to 48.5 and 477 million cu.m. respectively in the two racceeding Jeans ID 1953 despito the high lovel of industrial and com struction actirities, it recortred only to 48 0 million ctum. In \orth America too the apparent con mampt tan reached ito peuk in 1850 et 100.0 mil Hon cum., to decline in the two mccoeding ytan to 02.6 and 02.0 million cu.m. In 1953 it recover ed to 900 m Dian cum. Price orcillation in Vorth Ameria were a good deal los marked than in Europe and did not accentuate the trend towards mbstitution. The 100 to 1031 fal no doubt exaggented the declino which took placo In final consumption once then mus rome drawing on consumer stock. It 4 powble that the fall in lorth Amenan consumption over this period mu primarily doo to the fact that incloured Industrial activity failed to offset the effects of a declino in redential bulkling Vererthelew it seems clear that the mubeequent fall and stabilization of prices ha pot led to the recepture of lost market. The introduction of . nriety of ser rbutitute materials most of which not xem firmly established on the market he gradually reduced the consumption of #7 wood particularly in economically developed regions. Torth American and Eorpean production of um rood are not approuching the marlmutn Plywood . uwmill product and fiberboard . palp product hard ranger of uso which con siderably orerlap. For many purposes they can roplaco och other in many ond uues they both compete with my mood. Since the end of tho war there has been considerablo orpanalon in the output of both comodities, comparabto with that of wood pulp World production of ply rood in 1938 (including that of the UERJ) Amounted to 2.85 million cubuo meters lry 1051 It had reached 6 6.5 million and rose to 7 70 million in 1963 World output of Aberboards (wallbourdo) more from 780 thousand tons in 1038 to 2.8 milion tony in 1081 and 2.7 million tons in 1853 world Willboard capacity today may be estimated at around three million toas The consumption of thout commodities bu rien sterdily since the war in most countries, interrupted from time to timo by fluctuations in general economio development Thus in the United States the per caput consomption of pls wood toro from 10 sq foot In 1040 to 20 in 1062 od 3 in 1853. Both were affected like all other forest products by the event of 1850 to 1032. Intematonal trdo dedined particularly wharply and not antil mid 1933 was there any substantial Itcorers Telther for pismood nor for fiberboard hovore were the price Auctutions of 1951 and 1902 as violent u for forest products in goneral 148 ·800 thoukand tons though the tota rolume fell oughtly short of the record 1001 figure Exports from the three northem Faropean countries however which together acrount for over three Afths of the world total were almost ez.ctly back to the IQ peck rolante The fact that both production and trade in these countries which aro particularly sensitivo to world market condi tlou continued to thrivo in tho carly monthus of 1034 suggests that 1064 m provo another good year for the pulp and peper industrie. A similar optimium perrades the North American market. Elowhero in tho world tho rapid o pan slon of Japanese apucity continger while lor but steady progren is being made in nalang Indi go non cupacity in the less doveloped arcus of the world especially in Latin America and Afne. Soveral nov mille are expected to come into opet ation during tho nort two yuan. In the main exporting countriem a mlotential art of total production l. ſor export Thus the lyrood and wallboard coporting matrica bed wait much longer than exporter of Annwood alp and paper to share in the Armer forest products market in 1233 Eren 10 plywood and wall ourd prices remoloed very steads and cten los ho lato spring of 1854 only fractional Increases ad been trorded World wallbound and plywood capacity continues o expand tro of the most significant dovelopcentr boing the lactreo In United States hand xoard and Japaneto plywood capacity In both otomoditien teobnical progren li direnifying he product and rapidly extending the range of atillation. The future hold. impenso posiblle iles for both but especially for llboard for which raw material requirements are not exacting und for which the eatabllahdent of a mill of eco Domio site does not call for 1 prohibitiro intest ment. In the long ron, therefore world trado in these product, though It may increuso bogond the present lorel will inevitably become len impor tant in relation to total world oatpot A corollers of this is that tho plynood and wallboard Industrien, which are primarlly directed toward the orport market will become lacrewingly vulnerable to factuations in demand Early in 1052 Caneament reacted sharply to tho unprecedented price rimes of 1051 braying wun curtalled and . Horlous rocession developed Buying wy roumod however towards the ond of the your and 1863 openod on a dote of renewed if still csatlow optimlam. By tho apoing productlon mu back to . High lovel in most countries und bed rouobod record lovele in some places, Theroworo come exception, notably Finland, where there remained the problema of adjusting internal conts to the now stabilised level of rorla prices TAME: 84. EATITID Cochornox or Foun BUILDIXOYOAND DOETTATX COUNTRIES Сості 1053/ freden Curada. Nov Zoaland Unitod State Yaland. United Kingdom Union of Bouth Africa Argentine Japan U BAR Iodis riya 240 20 0 80 11 D 78 90 80 80 40 80 13 26 10 17 06 08 09 0. 0 0.0 08 0 C3 O 01 TOLD AVELLO 0 90 00 Palp and Palp Products With general economio conditions continding farorable the rear proved to be one of a reason ably high level of activity at furly stable prices for the world market in pulp and its prodacta. Torld palp production rome from 30.8 million tom in 1052 to 8 million tonu in 1952 axceed ing the record 1931 figuro by 16 million. Expen aboa In tho United States accounted for most of tho Increure but there were to batential advances aloo in Japan, Canadı and potera! Laropean coun tries World trade in palpaboorpunded by about The recovery in palp production in 1953 Fu accompanied by Improved output and trade in pe per and bound World nowprint production rone from 9 7 million ton in 1852 to 10.1 million tond in 1933 In 1951 oatpat had totalled 94 mlion tont. North American production showed little change but most other producing countries shored increases the most strikjog being that in Japan, whort ontpot rate from 776 thousand tons in 1832 to over 400 thopand top in 1953 Production of other categories of paper increased sharply from the low 1952 korel, whilo falling har nowy to regain the record 1051 level Bourd out put bortrer registered the Wggttt advance marching . now record level in 1963 the 149 ·notablo Incrouso being that reoorded in the Unit ed States Though board production declined alghtly in the early months of 1051 ít rooms probablo that the volume of world outpat of all categories of pepor and board takon together will in 1951 exceed that of any previous your World tnde in novTprint continued to expand and osporta in 1953 totallod 6.0 millon tons against 6.85 million tone in the proplou Fear Paper and board exports roue by 300 000 tons to 210 million to this vu, hotover well below the 1951 yolumo of 2.43 million tons. The market cyatlauod to bo utbsfactory through tho spring months of 1954. Though tho rato of influx of now orders slackonod pa por mil in most countries continood to oponto at noer capacity to cope with outstanding orders. In North Amoria the world largeet oontumor of paper and board demand la expocted to remain firm in 1834. Though paper and board outpat in this region is likely to bo nar or perhaps ovon Hghtly above last year = lovol capacity to continuing to the Since 10-10 paper bourd and wood palp apacity in the Unito Staten havo inortured by 13 28 and 39 percent respoctively Much of this capacity ru of courro plennod in 1850 and 1081 when boorn condition proralled Capacity in the United States may have run pomowhat ahead of domend at the present time How far any exceu apacity an be mad to utisfy the rising needs of wood eod pulp deficit regione il dopend on their abil ity to pay for imports from the Unito Stato Thus the long term apward trend in world do mand for palp products . concomitant of rising Utoracy improved mrolfero and Industrial adnance roportod itself in 1953 This trond the domi nant one in the field of forest products since tho marts cortain to continuo though tho powibility of tomporary Interruptions will remain. A gon oral oconomio rocemton rould naturally distort tho pattern of dovelopment but diffioultier could aloo omme from any worlow disparity between tho rato at which now capolty u boing created and the rate at which effectivo dorpand la rang. The world . pup and paper industries buvo . good year bobind thom and « good year lo prou. poct Tho long torm outlook, with many factor making for a progresivo tuo in demand and toch nical advance stoully expanding the raw mato ral buis of the industry romalne fotorable 160 ·ANNEX TABLES

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·TAL I ESTEXATID FTHOT AND PROTED CONTENT OP NATIONAL AVENANE Foon BOTTLIEN HE. CANUT Chlorka Tal Toda Amal Prot in 1933) 115/ 1151 COCITET 1111/ 1957 1933 1153 Try 1011 3 Cent TO 1.SI/ JU 1151! 1951 1111/ 1143 1053 fret 1031/ 112 frop 1131/ 1133 ter RT day Man ou per day Priem 78 4 t 1 30 40 9 57 83 $ + 1 + 071 10 Teen Ewrope AUTOA Belgrim Larrembourg Dennart Finland Frn Clermany (Mestern) Greece Ireland, Rep. of Aetberlanda. Norway Soden Switzerland United Kingdom 3 000 ? Bon : 70 + 2150 2 770 : 15+ 3 420 3 320 3200 3 0001 3 250 2830 1 750 2 80+ 9000 27001 2001 2 000 14001 : 500 100 J10 J200 1-20 2 810 2860 + 20:20 1 400 240 13:10 3 000 3 1101 + 3 10 1 0 1 000 + 310 3190) 3 210 3 1201 1 0801 3 000 + 91 101 2 TO 771 DT) 27628 ZIA6880 OL&#23584861E 5 80 98 00 49 39 + I + 05 DO 85 08 52 BB 40 8 North Amert a 84 Canada United States 3 0101 3 0101 3 130 3 100 3 080 13 117) 90 + 901 8 1 20! 01 + 1 Latin America 08 09 57 57 0 471 26 Argontina Brudh Chillo Colorable Honcharu Vetco Peru ! Uruguay Veneruola 1 700 3 110 7710 2 360 350 1 2401 23401 1400 1 800 x 400 2 000 2 2101 2170 2 40 2 10 2 070 9-40 31 20 71 80 871 01 60 L2 99 10 17 00 21 18 14 07 101 69 Oryana Austni New Zealand 3 310 1 1001 3 300119 380 340 103 ICO 07 103 101 09 Far East 501 110 12 Ceylon India Japan. Philippines "I 73 3 140 2 180 'I DoJBC) 00 + $ 180 1901 130 1 070 200C 2 090 + 2 100 18 0+ 45 kt 88 201 11 1 12 6 13 11 10 11 Var East Egypt. Turkey 140| Por ? 1 | 2 | HD + 1 74 79 + 21 13 1) 165 1 10 IO + 1 Union of South Africa 1 300 350 Bouthern Rhodocle 17 derhed un rimire ter to the wonder than duit saleh ptit Tuur beton Lohduntaa. Xot anak - Xou wide 163 ·TAD IV WILD PRODUOTIOT OF FORT PRODUCO Coom at RDION 1931 1131 1030 Come on Purolom INE 1051 1011 1150 DA FOOD WOOD I lui. h. The metria to 10014 9430 8.6.20 9080 (0071 Europe 1 U 8.8.R. Morth Amora Latin America Attro Nour East Fur Eut Coconin * 01 S 39 | 48 07 80 03 14 CO 90 58 50 3.50 07 47 105 103 41 111 45 4 CO 9 60 D 60 1 00 1 11 S 28 1 450 0 30 0 48 OK 0359 18 80 17 48 21 08 10 1 0 440 Wastern Europe Finland, Mamy Bwodon. Fastom Europo U.S.R. Unito Statos Canada Latin Ameria Asta Ocount 1103 984 1264 20 (0817 (0981) (0 1280 J300 12.30 1800 1100+ 1400414000 1809 81. 7970 $180 910 340 100 1090 1140 1000 10% 110 280 TVorld total, 184 08 240 47 284 88 05 00 World total 3130 3711036L90 39760 PLYWOOD MwOUT Tentato " , T 2901 1080 2840 (1401 (250) (000 (016 (810) (010) (813) in (316) 1025 8045 Europo Finland, Clermany (Testem)' Italy Brodeon. Eastern Europe U 8.8.R. United Stato Canada Japan Other region 1 093 1 078 1 8101 010 (314) (33) (244) (143 (400 (419) (484) (70 (120) (140) (31 (57) (59 (88 (315) (120 910 578 SDOS 6.10 K 300 40 114 151 461 200 400 340 110 100 Europe Finland, Normy Sweden Unitod Kingdom Fastern Europe Cepeda United States Latin Ameria. Asls Ocoen. U 8.8 R (325 Erot 1000 8101 10-10 BO 000 0:80 00 70 80 180 BO 110 30 100 ICO 3-40 36 140. World total 6510) 9100* 0700 10080 Vorld total 3 450 790 10 870 7 * Ona Pura Amp LOAD TILOAD Reinis to 701 17000 110000 (11890 (37) Europo Finland. Chormans (Wettom)' Italy 8wmden. Fastem Europe U.S.8.R. Valted States Canada Japan other regrond 100 900 180 840 (117) (84) (104) (8 (108) (80) (65) (2) (37) (903) (+) (37) (05) (73) 185 J 10 180 100 OCO I 183 185 1 3.50 47 17 217 10 13 ICO 110 Furopo Finland Norway Brodden France Germany (ostem) Unitod Kingdom Eastern Europo Canada United Btato Lotto Amoria. Afriat Ada. Oceania U.8.8.R. (1017) (178) (140) |(1700) (1230) (034) |(1100) (570)|(164) (183) (1707) (20|(2188 (1709) (1070) (1897) (1200*|(14101*(1480)* 484 1441 1201 140 900 2199 198345 111740 725 710 780 100 10.55 110 110 1416 1740 110 844 1400 160 157 130 Horld total 760 1 470 * 205 2 720 Torld total. 208CO 3300115720 72470 Liture Ioel att for cotra la Festen Eup Escl Coolind Incl. Leren Wely to 1931 Te te tor 1.60 Idel. Die Cute ob 1931 to 113 dni 1150 Lucite tv Caha in in 1751 139 b III 141 to 110. 180 ·TADL HORLD TRADE IN FOREST PRODOCT) Esport Import COUTIT OR RRIOT Cour a Honox 112. 10.30 1111 1953 1131 1053 1957 WOOD 13 89 O 64 11 02 12 CO 4 80 O2 0 0 13 10 10 08 10 48 000 D DO 203 18 00 ICO 000 8 20 Europos UBS R1 North America Other regionu World total Kibou 41. 16 36 12 23 6 77 O 86 471 3 90 14 63 O B 1 07 Furono 1 North Amorlar lor East Otbor regloos! World total 240 7 D 361 701 24 CD 17 18 23 15 77 10 ILWOOD 978 Europo Finland U 8.&.R. Other regions World total (207 114 20 Monum 400 (778) (221) (216) 70 341 148 14 105 470 (272) TO Europo United Kingdom North AIDOTTO Othor regions Thom. 101 75 (304) (235) (147) 47 70 DO 140 6-10 485 101 Torld total 610 801 483 TOARD Europe Swodon, North America Other regions World total Td mehrte la 310 203 (163) (100) 40 2 1 A782 125 (117) 40 5 Europo United Kingdom North Amoria Other regions 100 (07) Thos nario to 15 910 100 (17) (131) 20 15 120 6.5 18.55 247 280 World total 35 J62 207 WOOD PULT Thousand metro to Tad nu teus 1 063 3 9.50 3 190 3 990 Europ• Finland, Norway Bwoden. Canada (3 733 ) J (1 Oro 600 2011 1 761 (3 784) 1 700 Europo United States Latın Amorlo. 3 008 1 880 3 710 1145 10 1 708 1 785 80 3 190 1 000 World Total 818 io 200 World total + 700 4 10 6 700+ NEWED Thomare nu Thund octrie tous 2 400 4 833 4 870 651 910 910 090 LBO 100 Canada Eoropo Finland, Norway Hroden United Kingdom World tota! 00 (071 (67 40 0415 180+ (719) (07) (7303 (78 United States Europo Latin Ameron. Other regions World total 4 500 380 200 170 (741) 3 200+ 8 650 6 MO 6 980 3 10040 310 8 mo 6 838 Para A BOARD Thund met te 1 000 1 900 1 300 1 700 1 210 700 (319 Europe Fmland, Norway Bwodon. North Amorias World total (585) (1 057) 200 (725) (1 017) 187 Europo United Kingdom North Amoria Otber regions World total 2009 100 761 104 1 000 (374) 240 800 1 110 10 1 700 2 103 1 130* 1 100 1 810 1 100 Lider Pesto data ir Leste Europe tnde with Wartun Larop