·THE WORLD FOOD SITUATION AND AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS for the first one Information on the progress in the me and vallation of farm machinery and equl Artant ind on trado In these product. ECOND WORLD FOOD SURVEY 1952 $0.50 20. 6. A broad raththaal survey of how the world's popolation is poor bed. Agalmt the unenthactory present situation in 1 desir ste food consumpelon targets for 1940. In the Introduction, the vrector General of FAO Mr Norris E Dodd wittes The formation gives no ground for complacency The marge food upply per person over large ins of the world for years tar he war w over Was soll lower than before the war ortion of the world s popolation with inadeguata food supplies * grown appredably larger World food production has la mod expanded since the end of the war but moch of the shteve Font represent morwy i recovery from wartime devastation nd dialocation. The struadon which the survey disclose is a hallangt' The pro- MONTHLY BULLETIN OF AGRICULTURAL E MICS AND STATISTICS Stogle cose Alutecripdon $5. Published it the middle of such month, the bulle crop rated based on Information available on the 250 precuflog moorth. Each besue contains om or two at matten of current Interest in the held of agricukur « and an extensive section deroted to commodity Hotel copies of the balatha will be sent on reghest to the Do Service, FAO Viale delle Terme di Cana, Roor In English, French & Spanish) THE FARM AND THE CITY by Lawrence Witt and Mordecal Ezekkel 1953 $1.00 5s Yearbook of FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL STATIITTA, 1152 PART 1 PRODUCTION PART II TRADE Per Voloo $3.50. The two-volume yearbook continue the textual tarte by the International Institute of Agorakom In 1910. Both para comer attoos of crops und Ihrestock Dubb new features are added my your corul popotution qt vthere for agricultor, and such guestioni o alorieinaal Yearbook of Facts from all over the world show that income of tarta und lity people to od fall togother Wany group b deprwed other jroops and the nation feel the effects. Ukrwise the economk Kahvides of the nation of the world change together * It looks like a very alople statement of the obriosa, yo, us the lothors of the short pumphlet point out, " in making day-to-dry rolley people and nations often act it wen pot true” of the two author Dr Lawrence Witt a Profutor of Agrt zultonal Economics at the Michigan Sate College USA, and Dr Mordecal Enkid, Deputy Director of the Economies Division of FAO served many yon with the United State Department of Agriculture and to the author of many pabtiations on economia griculture and starte. The many pictorialited dhagram with tho vuled data from all over the world provide thely and Interating demonstration of the facts and relationships docered. Apart from the general reader this booklet would ratn ooolant lotroductory tort on some of the bek econorola of agriculture for students in secondary school and in the int year of cottag. At the en the the vat amount officinal Information In the chart provides background matertal for more Interestre theorttal dbamylon FISHERIES STATISTICS 1950-51 $1.50, The third your book condoer and apude the data pu In the 1847 and the 184549 od door which were seppled tbroogbout the years by the reathta poblated in the FAOF Bailedir, and latterly Lo the FAO Horthy teede Agra Economia ad Sucistka. The factttal Canige begla 1938 und ends with 1951 Yourbook of MOGRESS AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF FARM MECHANIZATION 172 $1.00, S. Secood Printing Facts her been drawn from Egrope Amerta Arla, and the Near und fur Eart. The report bring together FOREST PRODUCTS STATISTICS, 1842 $2.50 This your book of foret prodats statuto Lacladus nota Atent factors of the current world oltottas ad ho 15048 y ana N The 17 addon mort out o the demand for complete se bo tudy ban the in stabibahing them to standard normaa work A SELECTION OF RECENT FAO PUBLICATION

·THE STATE OF
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE
1953
PART 1 . REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
D AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
AUGUST 1953
WME, ITALY

·NOTE
The statistical material in this publication has been
prepared from such information as has been anailable
to FAO not later than 30 July 1953

·CONTENTS Forcuord S Chapter 1 - Sammary Anglonal Summary Summary by Commodities 6 8 Chapter II - World Review and Outlook Agricultural Production Food Consumption and Nutrition International Trade in Agricultural Products The Changing Pattern of World Trade In Foodstuffs The World Economic Situation in 1952/53 and the Demand for Agricultural Products Prices of Agricultural Products Furm Income and investment The Economic Outlook for 1953 and 1954 15 19 22 23 30 32 34 39 Chapter III - Regional Review and Outlook Europe North America Latin America Afria The Near East The Far East Oceanla 45 51 55 59 61 64 70 Chapter IV - Review and Outlook by Commodities Wheat Course Grains Rice Suger Livestock Products Fisheries Products Fats Oils and Qulseeds Fresh Fruit Wine and Ralsins Coffee Tea 77 79 82 84 86 89 95 97 100 100 102 ut ·Cocoa Tobacco Cotton Wool Jute Rubber Hard Fibers Forest Products Fertilizers Pesticides Farm Machinery 103 105 106 110 112 114 115 116 121 122 122 Appendix Note on Indices of Agricoltaral Production 125 Figures 1 Total and Per Caput Food Production and Population Prewar and Postwar 16 2 World Production of Selected Agricultural Commodities 1951/52 1952/53 Average 17 3 Relative Magnitude of World Agricultural Production and of Food Production Per Caput by Principal Reglons 1934-38 and 1951/52 1952/53 Averages 19 4 The Changing Pattern of World Trade In Agricultural Products (1) Foodstuffs 25 (6) Natural Fibers and Rubber 26 (c) Beverages and Tobacco 27 All Agricultural Products 28 S Development of International Trade In Wheat 29 6 Movement of Prices of Selected Foodstuffs and Raw Materials 33 7 Prices of Agricultural Products at Farm and Wholesale and Food Prices at Retall 35 8 MIk Yields Per Cow in Selected European Countries 48 9 Cereal Supplies in the Far East 10 Monthly Average Prices of Fats and Oils in International Markets 1950-53 96 11 World Cotton Prices 1950/51 1952/53 109 12 Wool Prices 1949 53 112 13 Rubber Prices in the United States and Malaya 1949-53 114 14 Prices of Sawn Softwood 1950-53 15 Prices of Wood Pulp 1950-53 117 16 Prices of Newsprint 1950-53 120 JY ·FOREWORD 1 submitting the annual review of the workel I and ngncultural situation for 1052/13 I calopted tho procedure of dividing the report tro parti The first part printod in this ament deals with tho progren and problemas uriculture fsheries and forestry in the past Anrl with the immolato outlook for the year at Tho second part will be retor of govern ito longer term plans and programe of agrloul al production, and an attempt to orzluto their bello offect on workl agricultural production I trade and on levels of food congumption mg the next four or five years Thts MOCODI t will be completed after the concluson of regional meetings which FAO is holling in mummor of 1953 in time for presentation to : Conferenco in Movember Jinco the war tho difforences in agricultural daction between the moro doveloped and lemon veloped regions of tho tror havo teniled to 1cace Production has espanded rapilly in the soulturally more advanceel countries Torth mcrican prodaotion in particular has outenp d the growth of population fond consumption els hero improvod, agrioultural crports here ublech and ordero Largo stocka of romo commod os haro recently begin to ecoumulato me cases to . diureting extent In tbo lew doveloped regions a good deal of ogron has been made but prodncunty pot man Kl per hectare romainy Low Fool production is not kept pace with their interning needle, anul ey have been forced to curtall their exports nd to import moro food from abroad. Their o con umption lerek reduin inadequate und the Fur Est are oron lorer than before the Iet their earning of foreign exchange do not crrant them to import more than a limited quan iti of fool in spite of the larget mupplies Dory In the long run the probleme of bo un lorulencloped countries can be rolre only ni ing their om food production and the Itrnt that markets are available their production { copott ctogu nith which to jas for Imports of moro fool ne more capital gode for dorolorment In this contrast botteet the different regions of tho workl are to be found tho tro bavio problems of agricultaro first how to achrord stable outlets for the growing agricultural production and in partlonlar to find wavn of distributing moto of the increasing supplies of food in domo arens to tho muilor-nourinhod populations who hard woh gront neel of them meconil, bor most effectively to mio agrioultural productivity in the lexa dovol oped countne in order to provido moro adequnto vusplies of food to their pooplo and a rcasonablo standard of lifo for tholr farmors In some respects tho your 1052/63 marto e non phase in tho post war tood and agricultural attu tion. For the first time since 1030 though as yet insocurely workl production, on global Lanu caught up with the growth in world popolntion Aforeoror tho large stocks of wheat and other lano foods which have been built up in omo regiona should enablo any futuro sarcities or potential famines which may dovolop in partioular area to bo countered with much less difficulty than before At tho mamo timo the recent accumulation of stoch, of foodstult, in the dollar area and of rar material in some other countries, togother with tbn donduran trond of farm prices inosttably giro rico to fear of burdensomo surplures If thong fear retard future expansion, the remulta coalil be serious Tho workio population will not stay tul, but for some timo to como la likely to grow at an accelerating paco ux lretter mclical perriors and in momo canon, bettor nutrition, continuo to longthen tho llfo span la the lone doveloped coun tries وامار۳ Tho unstablo markots of the last few years for agricultural prolunta, particularly raw materiak hato brought for benefits and many dudvanta ges to provlncers and consumers aliko ID somo exporting countries equalization wheton laro been uloptel to iron out price fluotuations But ment riperlenco underlines ako the raluo of moms tonaris International agreomente, neces 1 ·Cocoa Tobacco Cotton Wool Jute Rubber Hard Fiber Forest Products Fertilizers Pesticides Farm Machinery 103 105 106 110 112 114 115 116 121 122 122 Appendix - Note on Indices of Agricultural Production 125 Figure 1 Total and Per Caput Food Production and Population Prewar and Postwer 16 2 World Production of Selected Agricultural Commodities 1951/52 1952/53 Average 17 3 Relative Magnitude of World Agricultural Production and of Food Production Per Caput by Principal Regions 1934-38 and 1951/52 1952/53 Averages 19 4 The Changing Pattern of World Trade In Agricultural Products (a) Foodstuffs 25 (b) Natural Fibers and Rubber 26 (c) Beverages and Tobacco 27 (d) All Agricultural Products 28 5 Development of International Trade In Wheat 29 6 Movement of Prices of Selected Foodstuffs and Raw Materials 33 7 Prices of Agricultural Products at Form and Wholesale and Food Prices at Retall 35 8 Milk Yelds Per Cow in Selected European Countries 9 Cereal Supplies in the Far East 66 10 Monthly Average Prices of Fats and Olls in International Markets 1950-53 96 11 World Cotton Prices 1950/51 1952/53 109 12 Wool Prices 1949 53 112 13 Rubber Prices in the United States and Malayı 1949 53 114 14 Prices of Sawn Softwood 1950-53 117 15 Prices of Wood Pulp 1950-53 16 Prices of Newsprint 1950-53 120 117 1Y ·FOREWORD abmitting the annnal rotter of the work! and agricultural nitration for 1032/63 I lopted tho procedure of dividing tho report FOTOTTA The first part presented in thk mit deals with the progreek and problems iculture ftaherten wil torestry in the past ind with the immer inte outlook for the per The second part 1l bo 2 retion of gret longer term plans and programs of agricul production, and an attempt to evalute their blo offect on world agricultural production rade and on levels of food consumption : the next foar or Aro years The recond will be completed after the conclusion of gional mcoting which FAO is hokting in ammet of 1833 in timo for presentation to Conferenco in November co the war the differences in agricultural action between the moro coreloped and lem oped regions of the forkl hare tendeel to Line Production has erpanded rapidly in the alturally poto adtunced countries Torth tean production in particular has out tophe growth of population food consumption · baro improvel, agricultural export hare lecl ud oron ko largomtooks of momo commod hovo recently begun to accumulato in CASH to . disqurting extent tbe less developed regions a good deal of reas has been mado bit productivite per man per hectare remain, lor Food production not kept pace with their increasing needs and Luto berri forted to curtall their arports to import more tood from abroul. There congumption level renuin inadeguato, adul he Far Eat are ori lower than before tho Set their eumg of foreign exchange do not rut them to import more than a limited quan of tool in mter of the larger supplies now Lable In the long run these problems of wler-deseloped countries can be roled omly Mai ing their om food production and to the mit that markets ure urulable their production sport crop with which to pas for imports of moro fool and more capital good, for dovelor ment In this contrast between tho (Ufferent regions of the world are to bo fomd the two brslo probletos of agrloultare first how to achlore stablo outlots for the storing agrloultural production, and in lartlonlar to find ways of distributing more of tho increuing supplies of food in samo areas to the under jourhed populations who baro much Toat need of tbrm meronul, how most effectiroly to raico agricultural productivitr in tho Is dere! opel comtnes in order to poorido moro adequato ramplies of food to their people and a reasonablo standard of lfo for thoir farmers In some respects the year 1052/53 marks a now phard in tho postuar food and Agricultural otua tion. For the first timo pince 1930 though an vet insocurely world production, on a global benis aught up with the growth in world population. Sforeover the largn stocks of wheat and other basic foorls which have been built up in romo region shoukl mablo any futuro maration or potential fammes which mar dovolop la partloular areas to bo countered with much less uficulty than before At the name time tho recent accumulatlan of stocks of foodstuffs in the dollar area and of raw material in pomo other countries, together with tbe downward tronıl of farm prices, perttably giro no to fan of brandetkom turplures If thọ lean retard future expansion, the remults coull be MTI009 The workto population will not stay mtill, but for some time to como likely to STOT at an accelerating pace as better medical settiCEK, end in pomo cures better natntion, continue to lengthen the le span in the lene doreloped cow trian The unstablo madots of the last few stars for agricultural producto particularly raw materials baro brought for benefits and many dialyanta pres to producers and consumen alike esporting countries epualization schemer bare been adopted to iron out prico fluctuations But recent esperienzo underlines aloo the value of mortor tomanis Intonational agreements neces In romo 1 ·marlly fleshle and with alloquunte Aleganks de nigned to rtabllize produotion and prices at 1 lonel ntilatory to hoth producing and consuming countrie F40 mill matinue to give all the support it con to offorts by emments in this alrection The moro rapid growth of foord requirements than of prorlaction in tho lov developed regions has reduced their riet food exports to about one thurl of tho prekar krel, un afon #o the exceto of demand over supply has led to an inflationary man in foorl price in pome countricy Moreover tho chuge in their traditional pattern of track have womotime ou criou balance of payments difficultiem, und be realaoing tho fundo availablo for importing capital grade and oqulporrent HLAFT teodod to rotard gmerad rcononilo doorlopment There is of courre, no muggcalion that the food mumpliou of the defloft countnt boukl not le increased lry an expansion of Internation) trade Tropical countries may well find it profitable to role praely on importa tor nipples of grain or horontook producte in exchange for the commal! tres grallor ofluede magar collee or tropu mal frate, whloh hey mon produce more cconom Irally Conntries with nuaoral rogorcen will rah to darote rome of the proccorts from their Tomoral esporte to the import of foorl. Thono aro normal and healthy deroloprnent But two Lacts tuorl out Omo l that until tho I rolutivity of agriculture per man and per bec taro to the under developed countriem can be maled sobetentually there l« no posible way of alleviating the grinding poidrty of their moral populations The second to the shoor magnitude of the food Problom bioh eren toly in perhaps not fully mulize Il allowance is made for quality as well en calarle content, the average pet apat lots of North Amerlos, Orania anil Wostom Enroja arn momething like to or three times thome of most under-cloveloped regions, whether measuror in monoy valuom original calorien or the agti cultoral raources needal to produce thom. Nearly 70 percent or the world o population livo in tho lor dercloped roglonk Th raise their ararago (Liet to the protont avrug for the trorll as a whole (only about ball the present Vorth Amrtioun love! und by no means a bigh staprlard nutritionally) yold requiro an additional sopply of food equal to tho total 1852/03 prorluotion of North Amerlan and Oceania combined Word than a percent of tho arbutional supply would be noedel in the Far Fart whero, as PAO has always stresal, the hard core of tho world's food problem lien. Tho point is made wolely to being bomo how great in tho ahallango which tho problem of food and adoysato nutrition thrors to the work. Com pared with tho raul homan needs of the dfioft coantrio u distinct from what they can lord to buy the food stooks now aUmulating shrink into lasignificance It A clear that whatever food rupplies are abroad to the countrton to the foromecablo futuro whether in tho normal may of oommerre, or as gift, or un to mitigato food abortegia Liko thone sent to Yugoslavie and Puld man in 1862/63 thog can do no more than alle viato their real ntech A banio improvement in thoir food apply must como primarily from * steady improvement in their own prodacton. To help forward this improvoment is the main ta-Lot din ·Chapter 1 SUMMARY

·No text on this page.

·Chapter I SUMMARY Review of 1952/53 Stace world production increusing over 2 per cent annually has slightly exceeded the growth of population, both igncultural production and food production per caput in 1952/53 regained tho provar lorel. This improvement duo partly to gonorally good harrests lost your 1053/6+ prospects are also favorable but one or two year of bad weather could stiouah alter tho improveel world food position. Tho osperulon of agricultural produotion has been most unoren. In North America it has greatly morpened the growth of population. In the Far East at the otber ertrome total productlon hun barely regained its prorar lovel and is still 15 to 20 percont below the insuficient promar por caput lovol Tho Far East with nearly half the world popolation that remains the true of tho world food problem Food consumption lovels reglatored for major changea In 1852/63 Tho gradual kaprovement of dieta continued in North Amerta Western Europo tho Lour Eurt Afria and abro in Latin America, where bowoter some local food shortages occurrech Danuban drooght led to food shortages in Eastorn Europo and Yugoularia In the Far Eut fond consampt lop borela bowed no great change aineo othor grain importy word reduced us rice harvesta improved. In Pakistan drought me m merou food shortage and greatly ittured import to quirementa. World trade by volume la agricultural product dropped 6 percent in 1932/83 to alighth bolor the provar lovel, reflecting improved barresta In fmporting countries somo Tanning down of Importers stocks and import restrictions berrore of currency difficultiet. The pattern of world food trade has changed markedly since the mr With demands for higher tandards of thring spreading industrialization und groring potralation requlrements of tho ks doveloped countries aro grosing These countries are consuming more of their own food production, importing moro food from abroad and oxporting hon foort Thor reduced food ciporto (lergaly to Europe) have been roplaced mainly by largot exports from North America. Whilo thila ber tonded to Inoroubo dolar mhortage this offoot has been partially offsot by Increased North Amman imports of colloo rubber ind wool ut prioes rolatively high compared to other farm products Industrial notivity in 1012/03 wu at rocord height in North America but showed only alight gain in lastern Europe. In the under doveloped regione there word alvo somo guins in Industrial production and in somo curea inflation ary prouduros continued to bo strong The demand for foodstuffs and womo ni materials thorofore continued at high level in most countna. Fum prices foll during 1052/63 reflecting both Improved supplies and the ond of the Korean boom. Poodstuff prloes fell sharply in North Amena and new materiel moro merkedly in meny metots. In wheat juto cotton, rubber and cugar produotion has coneidorably onceeded effectiro domand at prevailing prices and stock, Lecanoleted. The dowoward trend of farm and commodity pricots so far only reflected to . limited oxtent in general wholesalo przees and only wllghtly in living costs Prico supports helped chook tho declining ten doncter especially in the United States. The United Btates Commodity Crodit Corporation more holds goatly loetused stoch of wbent cotton, cottonseed ol datry products wool and tobacco In othor countrla inbetantial stocks of sugar juto cotton and rubber bero accumulated With orports of Leur Eust wheat again moving more frooly the large stock of foodstuffs aro mainly in the dollar in Ercopt for womo declino in North America net farma Income In the moro doveloped contra sborod llttlo chenge in 1052/03 larger output ofrotting love prices Uttlo i known for other reglaan. In the under dortloped regions agricul 6 ·tunal ospatapon continues to be hlodered by a goneral scrolty of aspital und by • tendency to oozcontrato tho inadequate roscarcer on industrial dovelopment There have been some rovent tendencie, however for governments spocially in Latin America and the Fur Eust to giro moro attontion to iorentmont in agriculture. IYith impromising prowpeats for greatly increased flow of foreign anpital to andar doveloped countries capital for urloultural espansion must come largoły froso domestic resources maintained becaure of rising activity in toxtlle industries Due to rodaood demand and markoting dini cultiee fish landings fall in 1052 in mout principal Europaea lahing countries or copt in the United Kingdom which had . 4 peront increase Forect indiatrico especially in the northorn oxporting countries WOTO adversely affooted by rodaced domand in 1052 and prospects for improvement in IX are un cortain. Littlo change to ozpocted in tho volume or pattern of agricultural and ladustrial production in 103/04 duo to stable domand. Ferm prloes will probably continuo relatively stablo although the dovman trend of meat prices may continuo with the increasing supplice and lower prices of Imported foeds North America Outlook for Future Development Industrial notinty in most countries to orpooted to remain gonerally high through 1953 with continuod notiro domand for many agricultural prodaota Tho acoumulation of largo stoca of yomo crops and new materials in bowovor cubung conoom in pomo countries. Although non-doler countrion, prinotpally in Western Europe will contributo tho largest part of world trade tho world economic situation naried markedly with that in the United States Tho main problem for 1054 u whother if deformo afponditures were mutorully roduced, other motivitia would expand onough to maintain Industrial activity and provide markots for the aspanding volume of primary commodities, sopocially food and Agricultural numatortal. The future trood l bo Induonced langely by economlo policher und dereloppants In tho United States and the course of world pohtloul oventa In vlow of the uncortantes no attempt to made horo to forecast tho Ikoly conomio troed in 1892/0.55 REGIONAL SUMMARY Tho domotio demand during 1852/53 for tho socord outpat of farm produots continued to bo strong but greatly inanmunod trupper and declinen in osport outlots resulted in a sharp downward motomont in form prices Farm costo dropped lors and get farm incomet fell below the rocord height of 1051/52. In the United States . moralt of the price support program tho Commodity Credit Corporation accumulated Largos mtoala For forestry products tho Inorouro in United Statos domestic domand did not satirely offeet roduced orporta from the region Flah landlagt dropped slighty below those of 1051/82 In the United Stato erly estimates for 105.3/64 indionto the third largout crop on record Early Canadian crop Prospocts aro aloo good. With a Largar cartyrer of wheat corn tobacco and cotton and likely houry parkotinge of livertoch tota! Arioultural epple In 2003/04 - 10 bo copuldorably abovo tbove in 1862/83 The Largo stocks in the United States aust. whadow of uncertainty over futuro price and prodaction hout noroago in the United State la to be reduced in 1834 and marketing quota bo introduced Demand for agricultural prodaots in 1803/04 l not orpoctod to change approclably from 1862/03 and the reduced export demand of early 1000 will probably contato orcopt for speeled export dhe pool programa Demand for imported farm producto muy hororor be affected by any blacken Ing of Indogrtal activity roalting from urmemont roductions, Europe Agricultural production in North Western Europo rom 2 portant in 1852/63 continuing its uprard trond and kooping pact with population growth In Meditatantan Europe uricultural prodvotion dorlined abghtly below the proviot year and crop yloldo por hoctare continued below pror Eastern Europe : LDOOTory in agricultoro continuar abovly with per apat produotion considerably bobov prower Food imports particularly of grato into Marth Western and Mediterranea Europo koro somewhat loror duo to better domestic food mupplies and to sharp import restrictions Euro so total do lar imports of farm products were 6 ·Latin America oll producing areas, frut in other coantries inadlo quroy of investment funds may slow down appro clable futur cronomle growth Far East Agricultural output in 1939/03 meter by about Xtetut over the previous yuar (3 pet cent oncloding Argentina) In 100 becarpe of reduced Argentinn erport milabilitla ſalling world d mand anul orepricing of womo Brazillan commodities on falling world markets theto had been = drop in agricultural foreign trade but in early 1893 there were sign of an improvement with greater quantities anallable for export and more rettled foreign market conditions Internal pricen ware gezenlr needler than in 1031/62 and in a for coantries the cost of living declined Excopt for cotton prodnotion proupoota for 18.33/64 are good, especially for foodstuff. In ternal demand for food and other farm prodacta vill probably remain high u industry abno to Ikely to continge espanding Fishery and forestry production increased but fureiga trado decreased with declining importa and exporta, reflecting winckening foreign do mund A recond rico crop u reducer wbeat crop and A continuing doclino in the value of new materiala esports highlghts the agricultural altuation in the Per East in 180263 Domand for ooreal importo from ontaldo the region is still high because of a wbest orop failuro in Baldsted but supplier of rice within tho region appeur equal to offectivo demann Production of other food cropa, oxcept pubmed continuer the postmr riso bront oport crope show sight decline although thoy aro oth far kloro prowar lovels Food crop produc tuon por apot is 15 to 20 percent below the very low prowar standard. Both forestry and fsheries industries in the regiono principal producer Japan, expanded between 1031 and 1952 Terms of trade declinod between 1081 and 1052 making it facrouingls difficult to pay for orential Imports of food and developmoont equipmont The price of raw materials and other exports Aro lorolling off howoror aftor their sharp decliner from the Korean War pork. Both farm and rotail prices of cereals produced for domestio consumption hero rememed stablo in most countries The prices of government traded nico continue their gradual nu bat freo market price rteadied. In lino with stated national objectives and in reeponto to rarious dovelopment projects, it appern likely that food production will continuo to Increase in 1953/51 bat per capot lovel will remain fur below promer Africa Agricultural production Incroured moderately in 182/63 but grows per caput food supplier word not appreciably different from those in 1851/62 bocnuo of larger food exports Higher agricultural prodaotion recome 11 oły m 1053/54 dorpite anfa torblo weather conditions in certain territori The implementation of long range agricultunl derdlopment programa in mout of the territorier has been lemn maple than anticipated although prorious abortage of perronnel and equipment are being Ovorcomo und pablio investmont ofponditures ero Increasing Oceania Near East For the first timo rinco tbe ond of the war in 1832/63 pet rapat Agricultural prodacton approctabli preteded the prewar ererage This ospanion hoverer tended to be concentrated in the food worpłuı countries The volume of csport: mereured particalearls of grains and the region mu retoming to its proper position us. net grain esporter A furtbet expansion in food ta lodicated for 1853/54 despite droughts to Ime ud Jordan Eermomie dertlopment programe uro being actirely implemented matnly in the Agricultural output mus about 10 percent higher in 1952/63 than in 1031/32 mainly due to rubatan tial increases in Aurtralian production. Tbo biggest regional advances word in whout meat and milk, und wool aboo Inoroured over the relatively high Toreks of the previous year Thero lacrenset roleurd & groter volumo for opport at prices above thoso of 1931/52 thus contributing to the reappearinco of rorpluses on current account in OneTieu trude Present indiaations are that the physical con ditlonu are utlofactory for furtbor facteuro in agriculten) outpot to 1953/51 Homrover sinco the region is dependent on agricultul erports inckets to felt about cont price relatioruhips particularly in Australia to row of poolblo fatore changes in erreu demand ·SUMMARY BY COMMODITIES Wheat World wheat production mus at vory high lovels in 105203 orops bolne particolarly large in tho major exporting countries As Larger crops more harvosted also in most of Westom Europo and in India import roulromonto wore Lowor Exports of wheat and wheat four socorlingly fall, tbo decreaso bolng particularly marked for the United States Stocks of wheat in erporting countries roso and the carryover on July 1 1943 reached in all time high Prices vero mainly steady but fell nbarply in rome markots at the end of tho ог your Supplies will be in 1053/54 but prodaction in 1064/86 will be affocted by production rotriction in the United States. The International Whout Agroement wu robowel at pomowhat higher price range unfavorable weather for European besta and international trade did not rouch the high level of tho prorlow your Duo to Cubus marketing oontrol of carryovor stocka ruger prices roceded only gradnaly to pro-Korean lorob Tho Low or prices made possible the removal of practically al conyamption controh. In preparation for derstioning tho Untod Kingdom made . largo purchase of dollar ruger from Cabe shocking the full in prices Esports are likely to Increase in 1053 copootally from non-doller sourceOnly a gradual expansion of produotion trade and consumption is to be orpooted for the port fow yours. A reduotion of Caben stocks by the one of the curront sogar year la anticipated. Hotover this reduction may not be suficlent to allow the suger market to find and maintain its oqallilrium Livestock Production Coarte Grains World production in 1832/63 wus slightly higher than in 1831/82 . weloomo fexturo boing tho rooovory in the Argentino orpm Total osports showod Vttle change Poco movemento vero Irregular but with a general downward tonelenoy which we particularis marked for United States malzo and Ing berloy Tho outlook for supplico in 1933/64 promfang Rice A notablo increase in world nice production, after a porod of stagnation occurred in 1962/63 but International rico trade is not ostanding sinco much of the Incrouso ocorrod in the rloo dofialt countries. Though the upward trend in tho prico of free markot rico in international trado hue atoppod, the price of somo neo soll under goveri mont to govorimont contracts have rbon further toward free prices Tho roplacement of conoderable amounts of roo by othor grains in many Asian oountno appear to hero bocomo pormenont although the extent of such replacement will continuo to dopood on the price relationship of Hice to other grains At rocont price loreks erportablo rupplies appour to be more then adoquete to moot anticipatod import roquiromonta llant produotion in 1062 exceeded the protot jour's lovel in all major producing rogions orcopt South America. Dill production remamod virtually unchanged in 1032 but incrouod subotent fully during tho first half of 10.3.3 In oonnequance of the espandon of most produotion prices of meat anlmuk started to declina during 1962 In many parts of the Northern Hemuphere and continued downwand in the fint half of 1033 or copt wine prioos in North Amortaa With domand remuning high or even increasing, the doolino in meet prices fis the consoquence of steadily grow ing supplies PHces of milk produoto had been firm, except in North Ameria at tho clomo of 1052 and for some dairy producto to Tortora Europe in tho spring of 2013 Tho doclino in world moat trdo #23 rovered in 1032 with a light lacreue in orport volume Trade in butter by contract with 1062 Incround during 1953 Furthor orpanion in most us wol u milk produotion may occur in 1933/81 bat meat prodat tion may grow # 2 Blowor note thuan In tho prorious year and with a reduced proportion of pigroot The poortion of batter in relation to margarino will not change to arry great ostent. With increasing production the price lorol of livestock products in 1933/64 will probably be lower than in rooont yean International Indo in moat is likoły to arpend, but orporting countrier may have difficulties in disposing of their growing exportable surplus of cheese and presented milk Sugar World production of centrifugal cagar in 1052/6.3 doclined about 7 percant below the proviow your rocord, osing to crop restrictions in Cube sod 8 ·Flahertes Tho world catch of th crustaceans and mot lanks in 1832 romainc at about the 105! level Slight drop in the output of many of the larger producen TTTO counterbalancel by inortexCH oloow here specu!r in Japan. In ander dorcloped countries now techniques are beginning to incrcar output. With increasing supplier of meat the demand for fish for human food evol und prices voro inclined to fluctuato around the 1951 lovels. Conta touled to rito and pomo id bo fahing capuolty manifested itself in industrialized countries The production of frozen fish and salted cod Increased. Salted horring output lorelled off and, except for tuna canned output from most species dropped Aquatic animal oils anel fato proluotion was maintained at the 1031 lorel hilo that of meals continued the postwar trend of increum prodaction. the United Kinguiom reduced its Imports for balance of reyments reasons As . whole Egropo tho Largost importor of fresh froit other than lupana, is becoming moto Rolf-sufficient and total fresh fruit fupplion in this region sulstentially exceed the promar level except in tho United Kinglom The very mpid orrension of orange prolaction in tho Bfalltananoon rogion and in tho United States and tho stin orpanding production of deciduous frut In Eampo is canolog somo concom about faturo marketing in particular unos planting of atrus fruit continue on . largo acolo Wine and Raisins Total wino prodaotion after rouching the prowar Lovel in the previous year showed a declino in 1052 of momo o percont. Tho decrezio u largely in Europe and Algeria. Production In other regionu excopting the United Statow expanded Consumption in mich princtpel prodaoing countries u France and Italy has been decreasing since prowar Production of dood vino fruit Increased in 1051 and 1052 and exports in 1052 erranded sobatan tially above tho lor loral of 1931 The United States more than doubled osports under the mbardy program and Greeco and Turkoy almo incroused crporta m 1052 Fata, Olla and Ollseeds World productlon of fats and oils in 1052 roso moderatels but Interational trade doelinod about 10 percent. This doclino su duo mainly to a Ideaproad tondenov in importing countries to roduce stock. Prodaction plus pot importe into Western Europa tho world a greatest importing area for fats and on declined about 5 percent apparently reflecting a reduction in stocks rather than in sotual consumption The general level of prices of fats und olb in interrutional markets which had declined about 15 percent from spring Ilul to spring 1932 roco about 20 percent doming tho following 12 month, Thoro yua considerablo dirorgence among Items however ranging from rlso of 60 percent in the price of coconut oil to e decline of 25 percent in linseed oil. Derpito a slight reduction in world production of fats and olla in 1053 ciportablo supplier iro aloot as largo u last year because of income in socks hold in oxporting countries, Coffee Dowpite a further Moo ln world coffco prodao tion in 1032 total output Tu still 2 percent below proper Tho principal increuso wu in the Watorn Homlaplero Bustained demend throughout the year resulted in continuat bon of stable prices at the high lovol rouchod in 1051 Tho 3 porcent espansion in world uports rent largely to Europe whillo the United States importo romained slightly below the 1951 rolume In 1933/51 prodaotion to Ikoly to orceed for the fint time the proter figure upleo frost in Bnd rubrientually rodaces supplies. With A contine favon ble ontlook on the domend aldo no major polee changes are en rlmaged and over the long term en increase of supplies can be antichpated. Fresh Fruit There has been in recent yrih a coma detallo edaion of trdo in citrus fruit and some increu for bananu While tho United Kingdom imports of citru fruit vero reduced in 183* imports Into France and latern Germany reached . record high level Apple crports in Ih? rere 15 per ent belor 1931 u momo Importing contria in Europe bud a very high domestic output and Teg Although 1952 imports Into the United Kingdom and the United States were higher than in 1931 world tnde deelined by about 4 percent mainly ·betonal countries in 1802 in spite of tho doolining Long term tronde and tho inatoes in prodao tion of digarettes ts or posted to continuo in 10-3/64 In low quality tou. By tho ond of 1052 adverso weathor in some producing countries and volun tary crop restrictions in India had roduced total produotion by about 2 poroont us compared with the provlow your ind prloos rocovered markodly With the continuation of finer placking methode in 1063 no approclable riso in supplies u to be ozpocted and prices are likely to romain compar atively firm Cotton Cocoa Favorablo woather conditions in preotually all produoing countries except Brudll rpulted in a 10 porcent increum in rurld production in 1052153 Worki trado In 1852 declined by about 7 percent duo mainly to lower supplies from the 1931/62 crop and rodaood importa into the United Stata and continental Europe Picol mottled on an averago at about the high 1951 lorel efter a tomporary stro at the boginning of 1052 when rupplies appeared acaroo Since no major foreano In rapplias is to be antictpated for 1003/04 prices are not likely to undergo substantial changes. The long term rb lng trend in consumption appaen to have been checked tomporully by high price. In auch of the put two win the world cotton Crop or ceeded consumption by more than throu million below and for tho tooond timo in the postwir period stoob roro to a rolatively high loval Prices are bolng Largoly uphold by price support operations in the United States the promla on non-dolar cotton hering virtually dleppoured. Productton outoldo tho United States hu in re cont youn increased wgnificantly but somo gorernments hero Introduced AcTeago rostrtotion. Thero combined with the fall m cotton prioer, both abmolato and rolativo to other crop prioed ir roflooted in roduced otimate of acreage for tho 10536-4 orop. The United Stato crop is almo orpocted to bo roduoed on the rocommandation of tho gototomont. Now supplies of cotton port Booron 200 thoroforo likely to bo moro la lino with the current lovel of consumption of around 32 million below. The long term declino in world trado in otton, doo to tho dovolopront of tortlo industries in cotton producing countries u woll as compotition from nyon, continues, but thoro may be somo improvement in 1053/84 above the Lov volumo in 1952/63 Tobacco Wool Tho tobacoo crop in 1992 was alightly lowor then the previous your duo to doelines in North America and Greece Tho cut in United Kingdom dollar alocatlons for tobacco importe munod oonddorablo contraction in trade. A larger per centago of United Kingdom and German imports ame from Commomalth countries, Greece and Turtoy During the 1052/53 sou on stock in the United Stato increasod, whores stocks in Importing countries mainly the United Kingdom, woro much roduced. To beoco prices in 1052 woro slightly lower la the United States and in Canada but oriental loaf mulntained its price and South orn Rhodealen price rome. Tho United Stater reduced plantings in 1003 us #raalt of tho largo antyover Arulable supplied for orport from all principal exporting countries may however bo u largo um 1852 with the orception of olgar leaf from Brunt. If u anticipated, the United Kingdom incroures ita dollar allocations for 1953 184 the quantities moving into world tndo orood three of the prorlow raun Cigar production increased in An onceptionally beury clip in Autnalle mu responsiblo for « rooord cloud weight of world wool production in the 1932/63 town. In spito of hoevler offerings from cortant production and tho olearance of porious stocks in South Amorica the market remained very firm The strongth of the wool market resulted from the recovery in mill consumption after mld 1062 when wool textilo stock, in manufacturing and distribution channels had boon worted down to manegouble proportions. At the same time there was a swing back to . highor proportion of virgto wool in vol tortillo manufacturo Consoquonthy Fool contumption inorted generally during tho souon, with the orception of tho Unitou Btata woollen and ontod industry whero military orders were rodaood. World consumption is currently rooghly fa balance with production and on higher loyal then in tho luxt two yen. 10 ·Jate in the United States gathotto industry and the price raling efter its transfer to pricato hands Tith prodaction in Pakistan ind Indla in 1852/03 at the highest lovel lace 1910 jato Popplies het again adequto althongh not of the best quality There was no increas however in Pakistani osporte pinco the retorety in OverHUS purchases rus offect by reduced Indian taking The newly etablished local industry only aboorb. ed a mall fraction of the top and forther stocks were added to the prorlous cantorer Indlan mill comumption was at the momewhat improved nate of the previous racon but salos logged bohind outgrut are stocks particularly of ucking secamolated There appean to havo been como slackening in activity in continental mills, but the British Industry worked at full capacity in tho latter half on 1032/33 A notable dovelopment has been the recovery in United States heulan consumption in 10J2 reflecting tho lower prices In view of the incompleto disposal of the last two crope, Pakistan decided on a drastlo reduction to acreage for 1033/64 and the erop mag only bo half us large u in 102/3 Lower prices alo haro discouraged production in Indla Total soppllow may bowerer Lo raticient to meot mill requirements. Prospects for more actiro burying hy fate goods where aro meron hile improving Prospocts of a declarols omaller crop in 1933/54 gavo e moderate boost to pricen torundo the end of the 1959/63 ronson Hard Fibers Production mas malatained at record lovels in 1032 with a farther riso in sinal oatpat offsetting the reluction in Philippino aliaca occuloned by the typhoons. With domand still rathor weak thoro was some accumulation of stock partic ularly in Brazil and Bloxico Production appeen to bo adjusting itmolf fately rapidly to tho changes in the market situation that hevo taken place over the last two your Hard fiber price fell by 60 percent in tho couro of 1032 and thoro wa somo further decline in 1053 Drostlo out bechs in production are expected among high cost producon particularly la Latin Amancan stal Domand meanwhilo may improve u cordego stock aro being reduced Forest Products The first postmar decline in the trdo of most forest products oncept now print oconited in 19.59 In North Arporiobomover there was more stablity than in Europe. By mid 1053 general confidenco in forest product markets w rotored and prices appour to havo roached lorola hoooptablo to both buyers and volleri Production in 1852/03 generally has followed price tronde with some time lag Prodaction of Indutrial round wood wwe maintained, bat hawn wood doolned slightly and wood palp wus slightly below the record lovel of 105? The great instabil ity in tho Industry in recent year ham, however Aured worlow economio dificulties to some pro ducing countries boczuro of rigid cost structures, The long term outlook for domand for forent products continues to bo faronble in the light of progrew in industrialization in many areu and improved living standards Rubber Over tho part for ytan utaral rubber produc tion has been constatently above consumption, tbo ox coor being mainly reflected in gorernmental stockpilen Whilo consumption of natural and synthetic rubber together continued to expand in conformity with the long term upward trend, natural rubber wu increuingls d'aplaced by Synthetic in the United States. In 1932 the declino in strategic parchures of natural rubber coincided with the full impact on consumption of this doplacement mod tho domoward trend la preet continued Brnold IDJ9 horever the United Btate government lifted it: rabler control and u prices of natural rubber are now competitie with thora of synthetic natural roller ha ospected to arturo • groter sharo of tho market. The cuplus therefore to expected to Lo reduced in 1833 Add to dluarear within a few yean Blach depende, however on the trend of investment Fertilizers and Pesticides The trend towards greater uno of fertilizers and postaldea in all parts of the world continued In 1952/53 Production and consumption of plant nutrients in the form of commercial fortilizen ba astimated to hero fertured about 10 percent with the largest percentage guins occurring In contra horo commercial fortiltzen hare been used relatively little hitherto Tho mpply of pesticides ns atufactory and their use is 11 ·Headly fooroudog The immodito outlook b that consumption of both fortilizore ed pestfaido Ill continue to increase at retos claro to those shown in rocent yoen in 1951 Erpension of production in bodo European countries was more than offsot by the decline in the Unitod States and United Kingdom. The number of tracton imported into the under doroloped trous foll markedly compared with 1051 but agricultural tnctor numbent continued to increase in all regions though at . alone nte than in 1051 Farm Machinery World production mad oxports of tractors in 1952 foll considerably short of the rooord lovel 19 ·Chapter 11 WORLD REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

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·Chapter II - WORLD REVIEW AND OUTLOOK AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION exporting countries in soft current areas it ta by no means more that the recent rate of spanion in the rorld as a wholo ribe ronintained that it will continue to exceed the growth of population ar TOL. 1 LYDET UDTS or VOLLY or AOKICUL TUHU AD Four PropttTOY BRO 1.3/. Il pi 199157 1951 1034 - 100 Totul Agriculural Production 104 130 114 Torth Western und South orn Europe Torth America Latin Ameria Ooouna Far East (axeloding China) Maar East AlHos 113 113 130 IID 103 13 130 2.0 108 IOL 13 134 112 09 115 14 All aboro regions 114 World 100 118 HIJ 123 117 In 1952/3 for the first timo mince the wer world agricultural production is estimated to have regated the prerar lotel per hand of the popa lation. This applier both to total agricultural prodaction and to the production of foodstufts only The relation of production to population h not greatly changed If the U-8.8.B., China and the countries of Fastern Europe for which data are lesa complote than for other regiona, are included or excluded from the total Word production averaged about pertant more than before tho mar in the three yean 10.18/ 1049 to 1850/51 and rose to 13 percent aboro that lorel in 1951/oZ und to 17 percent m 1932/03 Exclorling tho UAB. R. Euntorn Europe and China the corresponding figures aro 14 percent 18 per cent and n porcent respectirely (Table I and Figuro l) Thus, to tho lart for years, agricultural production bar mooreased by rather over 2 percent annully and lightly arceeded the growth of world population, generally ortimated at 14 porceat per annum, or 1.2 percent of China and PODO other countries for such there are no re cent statirties are crcluded This expansion of production onoo much to good weather and hartuts in most regions in 1852/0. Prospects for 1853/01 are w for generally fator able but 000 or tro stan of bad weather wonll et buck the world food position considerably A factor which may alow down the rate of expen kon in the not low van u tho rortriotfon of pm duction for nome commodities rbero fupplies and outrunning efloctito demand. Tbo production of sogar in Cuha azd of rubber la the Fur East were redoed in 1939 i mallor prodoction of cotton in the t'nited States and of jato in Pakistan bare been recommended for 1853. wheat screego allot ment has been wet and recreator of groten wu bekl to determine marteting qpotas in the United State to 10. Although oforts to increme tood production are being fedenlly maintained specially in food deficit countries and to food Food Production 114 ISS 114 110 104 IN 197 112 131 Tarth Watem and South or Europo Yorth America Latin Ampera Ooounis Fur Eust (coreboding China) Tour Fut Atrios All abore region World 100 100 121 IM 118 103 130 131 116 115 110 110 113 117 Popullon World (excluding U.S.BR Eastern Europo and Chi 118 121 1 World 111 118 117 son uten und alten la cuptor andra toe 111115 un porttal. Tetbod tablet to the Indiu nu opmat tron Loubour Kerhot the fate rood und Apicuinta that Don Bonn bar bua tehdi, u R otplate TOTO Did tor qunut od med undtag pocs on the orthods of all the best appear to 1 Tin cu trochu luah rudas preta Chapter LII. Luchutar atimte tot ULLR, La Larope ud to 16 ·FIGURE 1 - TOTAL AND PER CAPUT FOOD PRODUCTION AND POPULATION, PREWAR AND POSTWAR NORTH AMERICA EUROPE (uxd Eastern Europe) 10 KO- Tox 300 140 POTA FORD MOOTO OLTTU RUOME 10 110 110 100 Oon Roho CANT 100 10- 000 MOUCTION CUT 10 TE 1444 W Mor H23 w 17. NEAR EAST FAR EAST (ord Coha) HO HOT POPULAMON DULTO 10 120- 10 TOTH POOO OOUCNON TOP 4 TOO. MODUCTION Do- 00 10 10 ROQUCTONICUT SO hen nn0/0 000/84 me/ MUA word 9/ 1113 LATIN AMERICA OCEANIA ко- 40 40 30- FOULATON 120 10 TOTOO OOCRON 10- mocou PUT 100- 14 OCIO MOOL.COM 10 10- Woonoor Curut 50 10 M AN 40 041 104 1034/12 13 M DO O WAO AFRICA WORLD (orch U.S.S R China end Extern Europe) 140- 140 YOR4 POOG OUTO AUTO. toA 10 20 NUTO 0 - ro TOFARGO CONGO 00- 100 O Matt OMCA O pouco 10 DAINO 10/11 ATA/13 41 410 on / 16 ·COMMODITIES FIGURE 2 IYORLD PRODUCTION OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL 1951/52 1952/83 AVERAGE (1934-30 = 100) 49 co GO 20 10 KO 100 190 too FOODSTUFFS Citrus Fruits Sugar (centrifuge) Barley Vegetable oil and obced MA Wheat, Potions and other starchy roots and tuber Mik (total). Oats ba Ako BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO Ta Tobacco Wine Cocos Code RAW MATENLALS X bber (natun) Cotton (int) Jute Wool (frowy) Непр FOREST PRODUCTS Woodpelp Sawnwood 20 40 30 140 IGO 100 too Growth of World Popolation E E 1 ·Not only by methods of food atilization a roll as by or ports and Imports Change in the pattern of trado in foodstuff: Blace the war hero tended to . limited extent to offvot the groping inoquality of rapplies both on the differont parts of the world, and for this and othor rousons changes from the prowar porsod in food consumption lorebe hero beon loea marked than thooo in por caput food produotion. But in spite of this and of the recant gradual improvemont in prodaotion, food con sumption in mant countries still remain merloh low often lower than beforo tho mar especially In the Far Fast Mor ix thoro much otiden.co of a docreare in the gap bottoon countries at the lower and higher lood consumption lorels (Tablo 3) Jany trou still remain very rulnerablo to any crop fallure witness tho mortous food shortege in Yogooleyla and Paletan u 1852/03 In this conzootion, an important factor often overlooked, needs to be strong must food production Lo increased your by your to meet the noeds of steadilly lang population Irut moolo of food must also be onlargord oron moro than proportionately beoon of the more mont of rural population to the cities and we result of Industrialization, o pocially in under doroloped areus In a number of countries storage facilities are insuficient for the stook royurol JoToote the nutritional quality of the diots in ruah roas continues to be unsatistastory as indicated by the lov protoln consumption lorela This is of particular signiftranco since it to becom ing Increasingly clear that the most porioa, nutri tioul doflcianoy now proralmt in many vrees of the world Le cordated with low protein con stumption In Wostorn Europe the relatively faronable food consumption lorals achloved in the proced mg year wero maintained in 1962/03 with loss clopendonc on lood imports from the dolar area. Inorearing ure of whiter flour alvo reflerts improved supplies. The end of all rationing in thk region Les now almoet become an accompllah ed fact with its abolition in Austrie and Brain, cort Ita ausing in tho United Kingdom Unfavorablo rather conditions, especially in the Danube Bann. Derlously reduced food supplies in Eutern Europe to 1952/08 In some of those countriet >> horo ratlaning has been abandoned higher food price hard arusod dificulties in othors of Eastoro Gormany and sochorlo yakin, where ntfoning is still maintanod, it has not alny betn porsible to meet the nattoos In the forlot Union, the go tornment has announc ed roductions in rotall food price for the North year in suoceralon. In most countrian in Latin America the stands inorius in per aput food supplies once tho Fur continued in 1852/03, but tho napld increaso in population continues to aboorb a larger propor tfon of the region : production. In Argentina, dospito better aroth the lovel of mont osporta could not be maintatal without como redootin In por cupmt domestio most consumption. In North America, where food cutisumption ts about 10 percent aboro pronar lovok high employment and fnoonon kent the domand for food at about tho mamo or oron somewhat aboro the lonel of 1851/09 Food otako ero anco again oboro to recard lorals and increasing stoobs provido momo hopes that food abortegem al an omorgoney nature which may arino in othor parts of the world can be mat In Oranna and South Alrica food oonnumption levels bavo bero maintained In the Nour East and French North Africa, whore food production on the wholo mue markedly over tho provious your constanption locale har homeht Improved, but in Egypt amall oropv bero nooomitatod larger food toporto. Consumption lorels in Iraol remain low boonus of drought and population incrous and this has acconstat od A terv vordrely controllal fooi oponomy In the Far East with the main oncoption of Pekbatan food supplier por aput more generally higher than in tho prov year beauty of the Larger rico crop, empoclally in the food de flott countries In Japan the national nutrition mur roy indicates increasing lorals of arraro nutrient fatalen in tho cholo country Foodatoaka in India at the beginning of 185$ moro higher than hi tho previous year son dependeoo on food imparta hus boon reduced, although por apet supplios hero not improvel olgniflountly How 010 countries like feylon, dependent for food imports on speciallzod exports Ile rubbor here had dificulty in obtainmg supplier to moot thoir ntion commitments The price of Heo is one of the detertonto to aspanding foort consumption lorals in the import mg countries of the Far East. In countries such u Indue, Covlan, Pustan and the Philip pines data collected for recent yours by the LO indicato thet on the arongo the proportion spent on tood by wigo carnort und ther families is about 60 percent of their total arpooliture orpondituro on food grala abano constituting a Large part of the proportion This fo marko contrast with many countrie In Weatern Europe Torth America and Oceala where the propor ·mes expenditure m lood rangty to 10 percent There we in the irgo a proportion of mago ermen t be oued to obtain a diet often inadequate for themselves and their families it is clear that effectivo demand for foodstuffs cannot bo nived mbatantinlly unless their real income fa appreclebts increasech TIVATEN EXTROY UD PROTETY COYTEYT OF VATIOYAL FEROE Foon Sortlic« IN CAMT IT 185/53 COUARED WIIK 1931/8 IASI AND PACKAR TTTY Calorten 19313 change trow 11418111511 Iron 1151 Total Potels Antor protela 1031 193751 chare chun mur 131931/3: m 194/31195431 troa 1931/31 1931/32 for Prr Che way (LR XT cent tron Ptr Yrit per det 1 32 01 + 3 010 3 1 3 4 1 350 7 10 1 100 + +9 50 1 1 09 10 50 - el MS 16 Staten NOT. AXIRICI Argentina Brin Chile Colombia Hondunu lenico Рег. Uruguay Venecnela 1 3 140 1 100 349 : 300 : 210 • 100 i 40 2 300 2100 1 980 20:30 : 10 1 GI om oo IRO 101 91 44 81 78 + 8 6 2,000.00 2600 2 10 800 + 3490 3130 3+ 3 000 3 310 30 4 1 3 Y8735206 58788343 07 1001 228882381887 T6T% 300 810 : 60 Iron 310 400 3 400 3 300 490 26.9 100 100 920 3 000 000 300 3 10 3 000 3120 3 3 (00 3 110 320 3 180 3 10 3 100 2 090 1 + + + + + + + ------ vola 古华总会各方方士生兒 28 21--La 04458_21 3528773二占18 Етогт Auntri Belgium Luxembourg Denmark Finland Frente German Nortem cere Ireland Italy Netherlands Torras Xweden Xwritzerland United Kingdom Portugal FAR EAST Ceylon India Japan Pantan PhШртхан CAR EAT ET Iannel Turtom ACA Union of 8 Africa Rhodos + + ++ ++ + •14119""11 ni + 101 1 + 1401 : 14 2010 190 150 16. • 1800 : 100 • 189 190 1 000! 11 1 28 43E 0 8 10 こうっ 11 + 150 2,50 OSCH asil 8 19 9 13 510 141 12 3 * 69 2 ie 1- (EATLA Australia Ter Zealand 3 310 3 TO 140331 1041 1013! 04 SP يامال Hetke Đun dau hd } ư ớ art Lectudy the .1 ·TOLER LUDEX VXERS OF THE VOLUME OT TRADB I AORICULIURAL PRODICT) TOTAL AXD DY REGION R.cory 1001 54 1151 191 4 - 93 103 Cros Esports Worki Torth America Afnan Octanla Tar Est Europe Latin Amma Far East go 201 14 170 119 1. 105 63 03 IOR 79 91 ang 08 Grau Imports 10-3 25 94 218 180 108 World Wear East Latin Amerlo Afra Docunia orth America Far East Europa 03 189 157 135 107 120 74 101 191 189 183 12 92 87 103 91 of sugar and oil code into North Amerlan roughly belanood fto esports of cercals, llrostock prodnots and other foods Since tbo war bor OTOT the 1egion has become the world. Largout exporter of food, accounting for rooghly ball the not inter regional movements of foodstuftu. Thu dovelopment must hard couddorably inoreer ed the imbalance of payments bot woon Vorth America and the rest of tho work Dat as is Ahown later rs effort in makad first by tho continuing growth of North American import of cnffce rabber wool and other non food agri cultural products, and recond, by a markod chango in tbo relative price of the agrloultural producto importel into and those ci ported fmm North Aperica The dovelopmont of tho food aftuution to the lew dorolopod regions has not overywbero follow od preciroly tho mamo coorwe though the general area anil ollocts keem to be mlhr For cum ple, grow imports of foorl into the food importing countries of tho Far Fart hero marcoly Inorcared, though thoy nor como largely from North America and Aortralia rather than from other Far Fartert antrou Cror orports of food #ults from this region, however have fallen harpis and averaged o parcont lem in the three your 1999-69 than beforo tho mar Formporio u largo not exporter of food, tho Far East has now be como a considerablo not importer Thle change in the densely populated Far East ts well known, but in pomo way bler remarkable than tho changes in Latin America the lour Est and Afries, where thoro is not the Ame pressuro of popole on There bag been a raped growth of food importa into the regna checked in 1852 by the lower auming of exporters of primary products, but onmistakablo in general treod. Together their importa now account for about 12 porcent of world trade in food ngulant low then 7 petunt before the war The ris has hot been confined to crreal, but has ertandod to foort such as sugar and restook products, which migrants that it doris partly froro improved liring sterlands (Tablo 9) 118 Tel Esports (cann Atna Vear East Latin America Far East orth America 106 110 9 77 0 12) 119 OS 01 81 Id Imporis 97 90 1urope Changed tort tmporter I 1936 11 • warunter tewarts in the trade in foodatuts us distinct from borger, tobacoo and no materials Tho change appears to revalt sentially from the cepanding food royutrements of tho less doveloped regions of the work, duo partly to tho increasingly rapid growth of their populations and partl to tho spread of fod utry minfog and other non agricultural partouts whileh brng sith them a demand for higher standards of using Food produotkon lo there regione has dot kopt pace with the growing domand, chleb has been partly met by redocing food esports and partly be Larger food Imports The combined Giloct is that not esports of food from tho les doveloped areas has falken oren more abarpls than gots esparta (Figuro 4) The counterpart of tbe fall in opposts frutn the lexu dorrloped region has been a corresprad ing seo in food esports from Torth America In the means immerlinteh before the war importa TULED LYDEX OWEN Or TOM I OLOME OF Poon MIT TO LATIX AXDICA, AFRICA AND TU \EAK FLAT R10Y 13150 1951 118 IFO Latin drnek Africa Var Fut - 173 140 17 JO ·FIGURE 4. THE CHANGING PATTERN OF IYORLD TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS (1) FOODSTUFFS (L) CROT DIPOSTI (u) cost moon (UJ MI TI of OUT (+1+1 v _10 40 10- A . UT 10 TN LUCA TO Or 40 *011 OC VILOM NOON Lou ut NOVCA to vor. LATU LUNCH OM 01 MOON JO 0 -10 04H 040 11 M4-H 4 me 4-15 140 2011 1 Ynt trad (Dam) the Ertroen betere rimt 1) DAT loport (NMR 11 In Latin Ameria tho increase in foor import has been accompaniel by a foll in fond exportk, apparent eren belore the hard decline m 1959, which resultal from tho Ingentue crop fallare To Afrie ruing frol import hare roughls bal anced an increase in food esports learing the det powltion unchanged La tho Tar East the es un ion of import ha more than notweighed recovery of foorl exports Taking the three regions together the fall in grote exports of foor! from 1931-39 to 100 m ont 13 percent but becance of the rtre on imports the fall in Diet MIports to other region ns about 40 percent Tho changes in the pattern of international trade in fondtoff 100 en mort cleats in the ugrams of net ciports und net import in Figure to watch exclude the intra regional trade within Furope the Fur Fast and other reason There tuet bipbeats Intreen rerion decount for nath e more than fet percent of the Intematroul inde in fonil tuff Before the nr tbe under developerl regions (Latin \merica th- Far East the lear East an Africa) supplierl about three quartet of the net inter regional shipments the remaining quarter coming from Oceania with a little from the USSR Toles the mlade the net mter regional movement of food in about the same as befote the war arrt there has been no marked chango in the wharo of Occunia and of USSR But the aniler-loveloperd regions which formerly contributed threo-quarters 0 prorido only one-quarter of the not inter 1egional blpurats Tbo remaining hall come from Worth Ameria which in 1931-39 cm balance neithet e det importer nor . net esporter of food The trend of international trade in natural fibers and rubbor (Figure 4b) differs from the treoul for foodxtu la tro important respect In tho first plece net esports Irom the leu (lorelos od reproos hero bera mell maintained since the Ahhough increasing todastrialization has w *5 ·FIGURE 4 (d) ALL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS OGŁOS EXPORTS (it) CON PORTS ( NO TRADE (nI >> HET DOEN 100 M ww 10 -OTH OT1 LAM A un VNOU omon LAU O u OATH LUCA TA O LA UNOD Drton On 40- 0 AL LAST MO wc 10 to IND von Dront bu LATNO to 10 SMOOTH AND mu AN 2 3410 K- MIT 01 [Yet trude (daru 1) uthe dicerna btm pro teports (tegru 1) Ad prou aports (Gent) TABLE 10. INDICES or Uwr VALUED or U.B AGRI OULTURAL Larom AND AUDIOULTURAL ETORT 1940 1051 1951 PH - 34 r3 1 Unit value of agricul turtl arports B Unit value of ngrxcul tural importa Ratio BJA 312 118 416 116 308 120 affootod depending on their position u ruppllarn to or Importers from North America. Another factor influonoing the balance of pay monts is the terms of trado botroen grioultana) prodoots on the ono hand and manufzotarod goods on the other It ww whown in a ro port by the Unitod Vatlong that the terms of trido for primary prodnots against manufactur od gods have morod omnulatently in favor of the letter from about 1890 until Immodla toly beforo the Second World War Tho mharp changt m favor of primary prodootu mu shown to buvo curried tho torms of thedo for tho United King dom, . typicul sporting country for todastriel good coughly to the local which obtained in 1913 For the United States tbo elicot on the terms of trudo mu greator u the oommotlition for which the rinos in prioe Muro groatest foi larger proportion of bor Imports of pomery pro doots and u import nalues were loss stableod Index of value of tn de trönd by todo of you Thus In the last throo your tho tormas of trade for ngricultural products hard momol to the atent of 80 to 40 percent in favor of North American Imports compared with North Amerloan esports. Thle huo largely oftret the opposito trend in the volume of trdo that in terms of nalue North America has nomainod . All net importer at Ygricultural products As long as this price relationship continue it will largely counterbalance tho effect of Tarth America a Largor food arports no Its total balance of ourient payments, although countries will be differently 1 UN DA, O EOOwn010 AYTAD, Raladin Prt ou of Esports and Imports of Under developed Cow piu. Dos 1940 Now York. p. 11 28 ·es by long term contract. The terms of trado are not leeg fatorable to primary prodacorn than at the prah in INU1 but are still more lator able than before the har The trend in the terms of trade for foorlstuffs hue heen similar to the trenul for primary products a whole 1 It is imposible to tell whetber after tho postvar apuring the long term trend of the terms of trade in taror of manufactured goods will be resumed or whether there has been . more permanent change in the situation But the growing food requirements and declining toord exports of the urler-dereloped areas ronki not be Incoadstent with the letter alternative at least for foodet uits The whole relationship between the changing pattern of trade in agricultural products and the balance of payments of individual countries or regions to this complicated and can be fully elucidater only by a much momo detailed analys than hus yet been poxsible Jet Irrespective of the counterbelancing effects of the opposite trend in the trade in non food agricultural products and of the shift in the terms of trade it is clear that the major shift toward, greater deprodenco on Vorth America for food must in itxell have had a largo influence on tho interna tional bulance of payments of many countries Foodstuffs alone account for 20 to 25 percent of total vocht trade, and agricultural products ar a whole rome 40 percent mo thuat a major change In this important actor of world trade is of gener al dgnificance Comparison with World War I It is interesting to draw a parallel between the changes in the pattern of internatioanl trado in foodstuffs discussed abore and those which follon ed the First World War Then, unor thero win • rbarp increase in dependence on foodetatis particularly cereals from lorth Americu becauso of the ceration of coreal shipments from the USB.R and the Danube Barin. There wus also an increased dependenco on mugar from the Caribe bean area boceum of the virtual disappearance of exports from Eastern Europe Altbough there trarlotional sources Derer regnined more than a fraction of their former importance betwoen the var, shipment of cereals from the Southern Hemisphere and magar from the Far East to gether with increased Europoan production gradually supplanted Mentera Hemisphore ship 1 See for example Torld Production Prices and Trorla 18 o 1900 by Prof. W LUHUR Loru in The Lapchester School of Eoonomio and Social Studies Lay 1951. Slanobetter FIGURE 8 DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN THEAT EXO OATS DEPORTS tot ION MEHRERE . 2 29 ·somlo notinty In 1952/03 porld Indutrial production roue by about 4 porcent and consumer purchasing powor continued at a high lovel Tho principal cocombo do volopments includod tho Iqukletion of tho offects of the mayor ol punto buying which herd oocarrer Lato in 1850 and early In 18:51 tho continuod eang of nflationary prowuror the rolantion of many dircot anti inflationary moore copoddaily La Morth Amor 104 and Western Europo and Incrouod compet itiveness in intertutional markets Bloro con ventional anti inflationary mouurea, through higher interest rates, appoured in many countrou. Economic Actioity and Employment ments and in 1034-38 thote wam at a loror lovel than at any timo in the contury The series of drooglito la North America in the mid thirtler intopflod but cannot fully erplain this tied Tho prooets of urlooltural recorory in l'aropo hu alroady reacbod the point when imports of, 0.6, corcode bero been roduced to the low 1934-38 Lovol, in spite of a larger population. What k not in the propont attuation bowoter is that Europo fo do Longor virtually tho only importer of foodstuffs and tho growing damand from otbor region, has mado up for tho talling European domand The noed for applies from north America has therefore rematood high, though with harp decline in 1819/60 and 1052/53 Noroo yor the area over which not export supplies of food havo dealinod ar dried my rooma larger than altor tho Fire World War (Higuro ) Tho growth of food importa and doolino of not orport from tho lene dorolopod regions result in como instances (eg Burma) largely from Intornal doturbance and the after effects of mar Primarly however tho trend proan to mtem from the normal courro of development the growth of population and tho domand for impror ad mtandard, of living, strengthened by the grad wal spread of Industry and other non-ugricul turul activitie Unley thoir incroning tood roquirements can bo mot by orpandod production in the under-doreloped regioni thamalau it com lkely that thou geooral sconomio programs may be retarded in that their earnings of foreign orohango will be iroducod, or that thoir Umutod cutedor resources will continuo to bo dovotel largely to tood Imports rather than apital goods for coonomio pension. The balance of pay ments Implication of a continuation of indeerd Earopean dopondono on food fmporta from North Amorion ero aloo far roaching In the Unitod State. tho Inder of Industrial production to steadily from July 1982 to Barch 1003 und has remained at about this postwer record bought through Juno Unemployment re mainod exceptionally low The gross national product and pormonal lnoomo also incronsod and in tho second quarter of 1963 word about 7 por cent higher than a your earllor As prices remain od stablo this ropreponta corte pooding guin in roul income The rising disposable Inoamor rosultod in higher consumption owponditaron and rotail malas The canthung boom in the United Staten is supported by highor dofonso orpood! turos, tho oontinued high rato at bulkling of private dwelling, and otin inora dng oxpenditure on ner plant and oupenont, automobiles and other consumers dumblo In Canada boginons 1, over moro buoyant The grous natlonal produot In IASZ ws 7 por cont higher than a year oarber and fortill rung Now porteur amployment rooorde, doolining prices, higher rol income and bigger rotal malos, roprereot together a prosperity without inflation. Although dolan y cependitur contrſbaton thu prosperity le based polmarlly on u axtremely high rato of capital in rootmont, raped industrial and mining dorolopment, and high, though lately doallning esporte of agrioultural and industrial products Indostrial production in Europo (ozorpt Eatorn Eoropo) wus slightly higher in 1902 than in 1981 but tho Inorou ru dao bolely to a highor output in France and Wostom Gimdy and in most other countries, Incloding the United Kingdom, tbeto yu Ught doolino Tho parcaron Mateta Germany k hut one indiator of a go2012! wonomlo rocorary abo ovident in foreign trado and in the balanco of payment. In Franoo tho THE WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION IN 1959/63 AND THE DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 1 Tho demand for foodstuffs and partouharly for utlooltunl new materials to determined conalderablo extent by the general level of 200- . Thus rorlow draw Grooly on the reports led below food by the United Nations and Ita rulou Eooponlo Comi: Prolete of Economio Confthone to the della Box 1951 3? Economic Surrey of Asia and the For Eant 1951 Economic Sway olan America 1951)33 orld Economic Report 1801/41 30 ·Japao bas crpetinend a lower osport domand for textiles, American purchases of JAPADO good, anri monster at the annual rate of U.8.3800 million in conneotkne with the horcan wr hato holpod to balance extorsial payments prila too al lower osport caining from cotton and juto manafacture, but increased domestic produotion of my fiber has to omo ortent reduced its import requirements The year 1962/63 shonod a marked improve ment in the conomia altaation of Australia and tho gorarament has boon able to come some of the rostro import restrictions Introduced arly in 1852. The produotion of builo manufactured, mining and most agricultural products has in Menurod Similarly in lor Zoaland, bigher pool prices and increasing sporta particolarly of dalry producte, led to an improred balanco of trodo Tho balnco of trade of the Union of South Africa also improved in the lea doveloped purta of Africa the main expanzon 1 Dow Jo mining, though the motropolitan governmonta are also continuing dardlopment programe in ot ber pocton In most lour Fastern countria there havo bean no marked changes in economic crudition They are rathor faroiablo in Tur ker but bero doterforated in Irun and laruoL position Tas more precarious and fadastral production declined in the Krond ball of 1052 In the first firo months of 1903 honorer Anime improtament has evident in the loter Furperun cronomy and Indastrial production mu 3.5 percent abort the aronage of 1812, mainly becnun of a continging riro in Tester Gormany and a more laturablo turn in the United Kingdom Industrial expansion continual in the Boylet Union and Eastern Europe but the rate of in creano was the lowest since the mar Tho min emphauis in this area ke still on heart rather than Light fodastrs though some modifications of this polioy hart been announced recently Over Indutrial production in the major Latin American republes, astept Argentina ne moraon hat higher to 1052 tbon in the preceding star although there was nomo declino in the out pat of consumer goods Difficultles in the duposal of ciportablo agricultural surplusch and Kharp decline in Argentina s agricultural output, which forced concral Latin Amerlan countries to import dollar wheat, led to morotn Import rentriction and also to daftationary meuna as well u to changes in the potem of exchango ntet The emphasis on rapid Industrialization wus toned down, and greater area wu put on agriculture Tho better Argentino grain haritat h 1832/03 and the recovery of monl prices uro not yet robocted in ang marked improvement in tbo economio situation Inflation has not yet been brought fully under control in Latin Amer ies, ulthoogh in many of the ropublics pertops attempts are being made to correct the critical financial situation. Thw Bral remotod ox chango control for a limited number of trane actions in order to adjust the high prices which had recreted its crports of mouse commodities and at the eme tlmo negotiated • rubatanthal Ioan from the United States Export Import Bank to liquiato arrean in payments to pomo foreign mupplier The whar increase in tho cost of Inne in romo Latin American countries tem to hate rerated to a large extent from the betaus o demand for foodatatta in relation to annilablo mopplies Homomo condition (loteriorated in 1852/53 in tho Far Faster countries which depond barrels on exports of primars prodacte, except rico trecku of falling prices and tho meromblo turn in to terms of trade. Industrial production contrapod to expand in the Far East and heeled to Arengt bei derand ter foodstuff, but inftattooars prestare baie been effectively con trolled in mort countries in the region. Although International Balance of Payments Thoro nu in improvement in the dollar posi tion of tho world oubaldo North America during 1852/3, ou ubown by . rotorral of goli moremonts Kinco the last quarter of 1852 Thrs dorolopment ww partly due to the routriction placed on dollar imports in the first ball of 1832. The value of United Statc exports doclined from tho first to tho krad hall of 1812 by about $900 million or come il peroent and mu about 2.8 percent lovor in the first four months of law than in the amo period in 18.52 United States importa alco do clined in the recond half of 1959, but lator rhoor ered and in the first four months of 1953 word 3 percent higher than in the puno months of 1052 The excen of United States orporta oter United Atata importo ſell trom $4700 million in 1951/52 to an annual rate of $3 900 million in the first ten months of 1932/3 which was more than covered by government credit, other transfer and great in aid, so that there mu net out for of gold علامة للمه Thu out for mu nther unorthly distributed Tertern Europe and within Western Europa Germany and the Netherlands borel tbo largemt Increures in cold and dollar tesett Those of S1 ·France doclined, howovor opeolally since the ut quartor of 1959 Tho Unitod Kingdom and tho sterling atce grually improved its position in 1962/63 wtor the rory hoerg goki bount of 1851/A2 Canada and romo Latin American and Asian countrie also increased their dollar boy inge. Many exporton of primary products in the lors dordlopod regions, however again had more rious difficulties in their foroigo balance of per monts PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Although the continuing high lovel of boonomio notivity in 1962/63 tended to maintain tho do mund for agréoultural products, the sotul moromont of prices was largoly affected by the earlier Inflationary stea in 1860/61 and by changes in the supply position The sequenoo of prre chan god which began with the outbreak of war in Korea had largely worked itself out by tho first half of 10013 Ibo Initial boom mu primanly in nur materials for Industry and in forest products prices of which had sometimo doallod, and m the care of rubber troblach, by tho penk perlod in mrly 1051 Consoquently the most dramatic fallo in prices ocourred in tho uma group of com moditia Pricts of foodatuflod beverages wero steadier thoagh bomo bomo prico rims of 20 to 30 por cont and opcrdonally more at the height of the boom in early 1851 (Figure 6 ) In general tho downward trond od agricultural price tomu likely to continuo in 1953/04 The general downward trond of prloos during the past your has the been primerlly a roadjust. mont from the earlier inflationary roro Vith the major cooption of the tomponry mocowion in tritflea, thoro ho bern no important declino in domand for consumption, as distinot from stock philung A running down a stoola socumulated curlfor conti forated howeror to the full in prior For MOIDO commodition increasing supplies hero also contributed to the roult and tn . fow arou, notably juto iubbor and sugar produotion has conddorn bly niceeded the demand The sharp fall in United States cattlo prices aboned that nope phea had rei aboro the quantities which makl bo absorbou at the high prices of the last for yent Without the operation d palco mpporti in lorth Amorloo thero mall probably hero Leon a blurer declino in mome otbet commodities as well of wheat cotton, cottoned oil, delry products tool and tobacco largo adelitrons Tero mitado to the rocks of these commodities hell us the Unitol States Commodity Credit Corpora tion during the past year Hollings of some of these products, inclwling wheat cotton cod oll end tobacoo LOW amoant to romo 90 to 40 percent of eyeago annul production For the world us wholo stoals of wheat sogar joto and oottom woro kubstantially higher at tho end of 1932/6.3 than a year earltor or at the end of Los roton anoe the mar and work stoola of rubber moto als mahtained at tho high lovel of recent years By mid 1853 many cultunl commodity prices were buok fairly cloro to the pro-Korean levaks. A few major commodities, inoluding liten stook products coffeo o coona, word still priced 10 poroont or moto above thoro propalling in the firrt half of 1950 On the other hand, by mil 1803 prices of cotton jute magar and toe wore below the corresponding 1000 peloos Price of como cotomodities, borover & rool and oll berlo hero shows a markod rocovery from tho lowest point reached in 1962 Flb pikem contin God to more above the pro-Korsan lovel, although then hu boon littlo Inorouro mioco 1031 Price of forest produots, spoolally of Europous origin fluotustod violently in 1051-62 Tho dooltno of 1063 wus chochod towards tho ond of the your and prloon remained fairly steady in tho flot balf of 1933 and at mal star moro voll above tho porto ponding mid 1950 priood Erau #pelons are in some cases out of Itno with current production conta Tho dislocations caused by the violent price movement kince 1980 lod to repewal of interest in International oommodity agroemonta on moun of tablizing prroos International duran havo boen hold for sugar cotton and rubbor while tho po mallor Greon Pool diyanin Perla explore the panibility of developing onlind markot for certain arriopltural prodaots In Wort o Europo After long negotiations the Intor muatlonel What Agreemont me rrowod mrly in 1863 for a furthor three year, but without the adherenco of the United Kingdom Otborrar no tangible results hayo yot matorlaliiod from those disourdons Indices of farta proes aro not asikblo for most countries in the low dorolopod 11 where recent price fluotuatlons hard boer most markod In mady European countivos apedally whore price mupporti oprrato farm price u. wholo vero maintained or slightly increased during 1952/53 but thoy fell somoshat in larvas Belgium ont em Germany to the Nothorlands In Japan, bero there is also an extensive prler rapport myotom, they increasod alightly and in soath Africa tboy 39 ·FIGURE 6. MOVEMENT OF PRICES OF SELECTED FOODSTUFFS AND RAIV MATERIALS Iso- (armry Me 1956 - 11.) OT too too 30 no un 1 MH Sutra m2 0 NY Thoma motut kete, IY Wool г. 4 I enden het tereted otten EOTY Kanut mod, Arumita Palsta wilde ultry mustach N 1 N fes Cocoat of: 3% ant chi. Lerore port. legur che port me to destante ther than Ul. (0 cortnet) U.S. Y 3 relor w poke at Chleur Want T 3 Red Water CLA prinn at Chu ar mborod . harp rite In the United Statek form price inrice fel br Il perrent in 1932 03 and in Canada by 10 percent m »pite of the nderpread price furport where mpeculls in the United States In the latter coontrt the sharpest de cline mi in the livestock mector and reflected mamit the fall in price of beef cattle The calling prices on the commodity markets and at the farm pate are not folly reflected in the general level of wholerale prices against the fall m Larm price eneral wholesale prices in North America fell by onk to 5 percent during 1952/53 although wholesale prices of agricultural produets fel br about 10 percent in the United States and 16 percent in Canaria In Western Europe the decline in both genera! and agricultural wholesale prices ww generally of the order of 5 percent An exception was Sueden obere general wholerle prices fell lot tbore for agricultural products increased because of the higher level of support paket In the car Eat 1o Far Fart wholesale prices have it 33 ·nther stable Thrue in India there U blight fall in the latter halt of 1952 whiloh her since been regained whilo in Indonesia tho earlier Inflation ury nico in food prions has boca chockad. Erooption. Inolado Pakistan, Iran and larial, wheto proes continuo to be Tho samo trto In A Durbor of Latin Amorican countries, Thero in flationary pressuron remain strong In Australia however wholesalo pricos hato remained stablo in the past year though at bearly 80 peront abovo tbo pro-Korean loval. In many countries indloos of wholesale pricou of agricultural prodaots no now lower than general Indioer of wholovalo prioos compared with their relationahlp in the first hall of 1950 and the divergence immotim ratbor do for example in ostora Germany France Canada and Australia. Tho humitod drolino in wholesale price has so far penetratod hardly at all to the retail loval, open for food pricou (Firure 7) Any fall in whole grlo pricor bus boon generally ofisot by other factors, such u the cod of controls on route, pricos and wegen the abolition or roduction at food subddlers and increased interest rates for credit Henco the cost of Ilving has remained stablo or Increased slightly in mort Industrial countries thus tonding to prorout prior of Antsbed man ufactures from doolining on the domestio und export markets In many leo indastolaluod cotintrbos, rotal poces havo doolinod MOTDOWhat crropt whore inflation bas not yet been brought andar control Erooptions pourred in sach divorno sountries u Canada and Egypt whero rotall food prices doclined by abont 10 sod 14 percoat rospectively amco early 1062 these reflect lover wholesale prucos for food and in the ch of Egypt, the drustlo mouturo takon by the goreldunant to ward the end of 1952 to lorr food costs the other hand, increases occurred in mich oom trie u India and the United Kinglom because of reduction of food subsidies In Thuiten te tail food prices baro rimen by more than 10 percent during tho past year beard of abortages duo to drooght Temporary food abortngoa, at Jout in relation to the rolamo ot deroand, baro alto con tributod to the ring prices in some Latin Amer loan countries, ... Brazil and Argenting, whoro rotail food prices Toc oven moro rapidly than the general cost of living Rocont dovelopments hard thus tended to oper sto to the disadvantago of tho farmor Hot Atleotod though her urban oongimers, by the general lovel of retail and wholepolo prions und the relative stability of thoro lodioes in most oountries in contrast to the downward trend of farm pre vorsens hus goneral ponition SHL more wgnificant to its efleot on not turm fucomo is the rolntion of tho pricas of the producto bo volls and of tho farm roquinto he must boy to carry on his buinc Few countries publieb potopam tivo Indloos of prioos rocolved and prioes pald be farmers, but in most of the countries that do O i markod fall is ordont in tho rution in the Laut vour though In nomo cares they remain moro favor able to farmers than before tho mar (Tablo 11) FARM INCOME AND INVESTMENT In tho more dovolopod countries tho ooodomlo mtuation of farmors romainod gezonally advusta food in 1932/03 stho unfavorablo chango in palce relations noted in tho prostor section tond od to be oflrot by higher produotion. Compared pitb 1851/83 thord word no major chaogo either in their bot money inomos or lo the cost of liv TAD 11 RATTO or Puan RrarID TO Puron PAID IT FARM ros & EODED OURDID DT QUARTERLY Porod 1110 101 1957 Cour ? I I II I 11 ITI IY І II IOS 001 IOS 1104 09 101) IL 100 91 101 911 100 1011 105 100 107 03 98 101 1001 TOT 01 DI 388 Cunuda Uoltod State Boidut Germany Tector Notherlands Norway Sworld India (A) 80 MO 100 07 og 102 g&agag 01 01 90 92 0] DO 09 10 9 00 or 107 SI 13 07 91 BU PO 1 971 0! II 101 01 100 00 10g 1011 1071 1001 110 Japan Not arattal 84 ·FIGURE 7 PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AT FARM AND WHOLESALE AND FOOD PRICES AT RETAIL (dt Nyta 1916 - 10) UNITED STATES CANADA HO 110 140 THULE ot! LU -ORI 021 110- 011 100 DOM 08 00 A 1 1) NU - AJ 1 . N M 0001 IH MER 11 ma HBO 112 UNITED KINGDOM WESTERN GERMANY IJO MIA 10 140 OUR 30- IJO HOLDAL 20- 1204 1 O- 110- Doon VI 100- 10- 101 N 1 NY 1 N I Uu AU 1 1 IY Otu He otu MU CH NETHERLANDS MEXICO Loti 130 40 - 140 Fot! FOU 110- 110 10 10 100 10 10 11 AU 1 1 1 . 1 1 HO 1H 110 M BURMA JAPAN 10 ot! 0 RIO - 10 1 10- to to 00 00 10 10 N 1 mo IN2 35 ·ing In comparison both with the promat and imtuediato postwar period, farmon ato operating more offiarently hard increased their apital in rootments and aro generally in a stronger roonomic poution. At about $14 700) mmion not United States farm Incomes in 1032 were ma percent lower than m 1001 and may fall by another 0 to 7 percent in 1863 n. the fall in prices received by farmors is not fully ofloot by lowor oorts In that cor it has been estimated that the purchasing pot of farm incomor in 1963 would fall to the lorol of 1950 tho komot snoo the war but norortholers about 30 por cont above the promar level Io Canada the portion J. dmilar The not farme incomo reached a record level of Can 52,118 million in 1951 and dochned by 11 percent in 1952 but was stiu 85 porcent higher than in 1950 Tbo purchasing powor of the farm Incomo algo de olined from 1951 bat mas matantially bigher than in 1811 In terms of capital mvestment, farmors in the United Staten in 1891 und 1962 spent almost $8,000 milhon each your for farmi equipment and construction. This represento almost 10 percent of all apital outlays in the United Stator In both countries, but mamly in the United Statow price rapport mouren mere more fully utilized as prices tended downward. The party zatlo in tho United States declined steadily durmg the past year and tho ond at Juno 190 m2 04 us compared with 103 - your curllor In Oceanle not farm inoomes abowo mbeten tlal Inorouse in 1852/03 a compared with 1051/02 rosulting mainly from groter production et en banced pricom Although prices to farmors bere Hoon romonhat, it is unlikely that oror the your as a whole tho cost/price ratio morod rignificantly in favor of farmore mainly boow us of adjustments in Labor conta. Moverthelemy the extra output ut higher prices ou maicient to Toalt In not in como higher than in any other your roopt 1950/51 whon it was reved by the high wool prioer due to tho Korcan hoom. In Western Earopo tbeto has been recently a coneidenblo degree of stability in agriculture Although 10.52/03 í unlikely to bero prorred. highly profitablo rur for farmers the real value of incomos gonerall suffered no sharp mot back Thus in Tosteri Germanr although prices of Hvatock har tended downwards and carts of La bor fortiter und machinery are some tut higher the price indos for farm reyutaltes was about 3 percent bugher at the ond of 1969 than a year arler) tho too fa tho volumo of produollon at least partly oflrot the unfaronable dovelopment In price relation Furthermoro, as the cost of Living declined, the real walue of farm Inoomon Fus saxtaino. In France Italy and Switzerland, too tho balanco of production, farm prices and costat holy to learo the real mncome of tho farmor largely unchanged. In the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway tumor corta poem to bo rapning a little ahead of pricer in Sweden the rorerne som to have been tho care Investorent 10 Agrioulture in Western Europe has been main tained at a fairly bigb lorol, and in partioular thoro has been a sharp increase in mechanization. Betroen 1800 und 1059 the number of tractors in oroased by 16 roroont in Sweden (already highly mochanizod) by 20 to 31 peroont in the Nether Lands wid Buitartland, ht about 40 poroont in France, Bolglim and tentom Gormany and by no loss than on percent in Denmark In the United Kingdoon the woonomto poutka at the farmor lus Improtad considerably Not noomes, in part reflecting incroured production both oct 1138 und 19:52 noarly doablol after allowing for the general riso in the price love) det inonmo in 1862/68 L likely to have been about the Amo or slightly lower than in 1031/62 Thero has been a ounadorable in sestmont in grloulturo, particularly in mechanization, and in 1852 the number of tractors reached 387,00, compared with 848 000 in 1950 and 5,000 bofore the war In Japan the large gains la farm inoamo in 19JI/62 Foro not conttaaed into 1052/53. Rtrow in curront farm os pontos and in tho ganen) opat of bring more than offset the increano in total farm receipts Furner foxcomo from nan agri cultural sources increased borroVorlon ving. olight not gam In thor over- ocorromlo poaftinn Rural liring standards, which improved between 1950/51 and 1851/62, mero maintained in 1846 The large prowar difference between urban and rural living standard, has now largely disappeurek, ag farm living stepdards hard improvert, while urban consumption levels romain about 30 peront Jourt than beforo the nr In other areas of the world information on a cukura) Inconet i wanty and indood tho conoopt of net farm Incomes a wed when the malo procluction is for tho market applia to a limited extent only where former le largely on a sub stence besls The aman proportion of their production and consumption which goes through the market has been affected by the downand trend of most commodity price and the relatively higher price of many manofactured arttokes This is troo also of fisbermen productos on a ·subetetenco baris To rom estat their fronom lo position has improred through the dotelorment of mechanization and other technical inno rutions and also the creation of market opporta nities folloning on Industrialization. A major difficult in the ornalon of agricul tore in the treg dortloped regions to the caret of capital intended by their recent compentiation on Industrialization For eumple tho Economic Surry of Latix America 1951/52 roports that Generally merking little condtal has been applied to agriculture Ito growth has been slow com pared with intostry creating dificulties both for esports and for domestic consumption. In fact, manufacturing prorlaction in Latin America roho it an andanl rate of 77 percent between 1916 and 1859, compared with 25 percent for agri culture Agricultural products make up nearly hall of Latin American arports, which according to tho sme report are clovely correlated with tho rate of in rostment Thos vicioue drole i do veloped insufficient in rostmont la agriculturo reducea osports and lower the capacity for ex ternal payments and for total forestment which, in turn, provent farther adequuto in reatment in agroculture This diagnoate bolda good not only fox Latin America, but alo for other under doveloped regions Lately bowOTT A rotorul of this trend has beronto apparept Verko und Argentina ard notablo enmple of Latin American countries which are now laying increasing empha is on agokolture In the lear East Turkey has provided . remarkablo example of agricultural developmont now beglaning to come to fruition The Far Eust provides point of the most strilding anumples of the growing attention to agriculturo and the dovelopment program of of India, Pahatan and Ceylon allocate a large part of Arulablo funds to griculture In the latter mgron in particular pablio fand are being used to an increa ing crtent to supplement the lack of private funds for investment in agriculturo pertly due to the general boate of capital and partly to more profitable opportunities for mettent in other field On the one hand publo funds are being tred for large-alo schemes including irrigation and the importation of farm muchinert for land reclamation on the other thet aro hemgoud to belp formand all saule projects c6 to encourage schemes of rell help and community development or by setting up or enlarging publio financing Institutions in tended to alloruto the small farmers traditional dilloults in obtnining credit Thero In Ihtlo antistical data availablo on agricultural credit in moat oountries PAO requested by the Sixth Session of the Conference bent ont i mail qnentionnaire m 1052 Kepling information on credit granted and outstanding and on types of credit Institution The replies to date aro not yet mufficient to albo tabular prmentation Horrero the anulablo data do support the flow that although progress bos being marle, credit facilities and tho supply of long torm oredit ir Inarlequnto in many countries particularly for small furmerk In addition to direct stato investment . nom ber of countries have attempted to increas tho ftor of prirate funds into agriculture BToxico for omple he released blocked coramercial bank finds for intextment in agriculture The acuto shortage of domestio apital in the leny doveloped countries has naturaliv ind to considerable attention being gired to returing furyle from abroad for investment both in agri culture and in other poctors of tho economy 80 far boseror the fire of forrign capital for virert 10 rostment in agriculturo has beca rather meagte tbough lerrer amounts havo beon forthcoming for example, for transport and power novelop ments which aid errcultura foxlirootly Private Foreign Investment In tbo primato vertor ner United States a rect inrettmont and ro-tareatment in foreign agriculture in 1891 the Latcot year for which data are atatlable amounted to $10 million. Total United Staten prinate investment in foreign agriculturo outstanding at tho end of that year amomated to $094 million. Thato finde frete placed in ters limited srotor Jore than 80 percent nu invested in Latin America, mainly in tager and fruit puertaklage about 15 per cent u in Cuban tugur alone In comparison, It may be noted that at prevent new pet domestic intestment in United Statek ogrloulture io, less amorthrition and maintenance cost of the order of SI million annually As le rell born, United Kingdom ororxu private tarentments baro declined steelly rinco the prenar perior and in 1030 the latest your for which oficial duto tre anilable tboy rere rome 10 percent borer than in 1938 It is im pouble to separate the part of agriculturo bat a brenkulown of a total shart und bun capital of Eronme Surrey o! Lain {mTKO 1951/52 ECOYOX Document 1.1 March 1931 37 ·11,235 million in Unltod kingdom legutered compania and Britth companies registered abroad, Iusts 1778 million for rubber and £499 mil loon for ton and coffeo as the only rocognizably Agrioultural mdertaling The Commonwealth Dorelopment Financo Company establohed after the Commonwealth Economic Conforunco of Don cember IBZ is intenderl to mobilizo privato capital for primary prodocther, but londing for all pur pores has been limited to . mamam of £30 mil lion that no largo-calo financing can be os peoted for urloulturo Other countries oxporting privato capital ox cept to dopendent territories Inoludo Canada (manis to the United States) and Snitretland the latter country in 1062 provided nothing (lirectly for 4griculturo out of foreign loans of about $60 million. It seems clear therefore that tho tutal flow of foreign privato capital for inrost ment in agricultuto from all muroon has been almost nog Ugiblo in comparison with total nood.. ment and the United States Import Fapnet Bank are among the most important Although the total loan authorizations were bonor in the pocond poriod covered by the abord table the petoontage for derrot all to agrloulturo was somewhat Inngor Of thet hans, by far the groatest part went to India which rocural $10.5 m]llon for Irrigation and food control and $31.8 mſiln for agricultural processing industries The others were 83.8 million to Finland for forestry equipment and 300 million to loeland for prooning industry A notoworthy doveloptent rocently has boon the increasing shero of non-dollar CITerior in the loans gruntod by the Interna tonal Bank, roflooting the increasing availability of capital goods in non-dollar countries The de oidon of tho United Kingdoma govorament to pormit tho aso of up to £60 million of its subpription for loans may bo cipected to strengthon thus trend Direct ald to agriculturo accounts for a rather minor part of the United States Export Import Bank loans and so far has beon limited to tbo import of agricultural machinory Tho wholo of the authorization of $18 million for agiloultural dovolopment in the coond period went to Brusl (Tablo 13) The amounts spoolfied in tho two procoding tabloo are rathorisations for loans, and sotual disbursoments ran somewhat lower In 2009 thor amountod to $704 million gainst satbor bution in the wmo period of $889 milliaa pro rata, disburkoments for ugrioultural dovolop mont may have been of tho order of $70 million In addition, fairly largo investments from Pabllo fundo ero mondo by motropolitan countdow for coonomio dovelopment in thotr doponderat territorio. No rooent estimates und Availablo of Public Foreign Investment 8ince the war tho balk of foreign Investment hay come from publio sources of which the Inter national Bank for Reconstruction and Develop TABLE 11. IXTILYATIONAL BAT TOR RACONITRUO- TOY AXD DEVELOPEST: AUTTO LE LOANS TO Yr 2013 ITO ov 12 to July 1951 July 1087 to say 114 TOTAL URL cArt TOTAL TOLD authorized 210 1 173 +) 413 5 35 4 118 96 98 TALLE 11 Dinly olding oyrkemliure Wachinery and spare parts Irrigation and food con trol Timber oqupment. Proooning industrien Julti purpose loans 198 38 U8 Error Irror BANT AUTHOR ITUD LOAD TO MAY 1933 10 98 IBO 180 ITD July 1931 Joly 1931 Jah VST IA TOTAL 89 0 Indireally olding arkod Transport Pore dovelocumept Other VE U : un B10 11 41 2 940 400 1302 01. 700 10718 170 0 TOTAL loans authorbed Drootly alding agriculturo Indirectly ording agricultore Otber 70 87 476 18 C $77) 473 7 Portret 12 6 021.3 Percentare directly in agrico 4 31 9 Persentugo diroctly alding agroaltun 141 34 To Torrhiperty for utitution of foren mources I doction of nehobetu. sorta AD Sou miel er H. Waterton September 1951 Home Hoci sport Lourt Parl. Sortem Report to O Tethinxtos, 1943 od Pro Team 38 ·Vations Funil for Economio Dovelopment' her boon under consideration by the Economic and Social Cornel and by the Goneral Assembly and in thoso discussions profoots to increano food pmdinction havo boon singlod out for priority Other NICO may also bo found. Bat on the whole the inescapable oonohuon appears to be that much the greator part of tho lovestment funds needed for sgrioultural orpansion in the loom doveloped urou must come from their domestilo . Icourtce Tho gyro THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 1953 AND 1984 the amounts or of the proportion for wricultural dovelopment bat thoy may be of tho kamo order of magnitudo or rather larger than the combined unnual daburremonts of the two bank. If this La corroot tho total foroign capital medo ayulablo from pabllo and privato fande for all types of co nomio development in tho undor-dorolopod coun trios may be tontatirely estimated us in the neigh borhood of $1,500 million annually This may be compared with an cotimate of about $10 000 million a tho annual Investment required to raise the per ospat national Income of the ondor-doveloped regiona by 2 percent gato national Income of those regions may bo of the order of magnitudo of $100 000 million and at an annual avings nato of my percent domestilo Investment would cover half the roquiromant learing romo $5000 million to omo from abroad. Tho mergin of ortor in all thoro otimatos must bo largo but they indicato.roquirement of for egn capital for boyond anything which bu boon forthcoming in the last fow yours or which onn be for men in the near future For agriculturo tho doficit te probebly propor tionately groutor The total investment noods of agrloulturo in the undor-doveloped arou buvo boon ottimatod u of the order of $4 000 m: Ibon OT 40 percent of the total investment Tho per centago of domestio lovestmont in agrioulturo lo unlikely to be higher than this and it appears from tho carller paragraphs that the proportion of foreign investment is considerably lower A larger flow of investment funds from abroad may be poolble. The resources of the Interne tional Bank might be down upon to a grouter ortant for wall oonoolved wchomoy of agricultural dovelopment A proporal for . Sporial United No mayor changes in tho coonomio situation are antlapotod for the rest of 1863 In the United Statas gron national product will rouch a record Ima! Planned expenditures by private bukur en for nor plant and equipment in 1953 are about 8 percent abort tboro in 1952 Romo dofonet industrtos hard begun to show deolmes whilo womer non-defense industrie wo powing Inorteros aftor curtailmg expenditures during tho defense build ар Connumer cependitures are hkely to in oroute with reing income and partionlarly if the rate of mrings abould roorde cloper to prowur Lorola Eroty major industry aspeota groutor ankets in 2003 than in 1802 In Canada optimated gromet national produnt in 1863 will lnorons by 4 percent over that m 1802 with pobho and pri tuto Inrontmont constitating 23 poroont of the gron national product With high employment rring income and redaood incomo tare it is an ticipated that consumer expondlitares will almo Incrento mubstantially In Western Europa tho lovel of industrial PITOduction in 1953 1. unlikely to bo very different from that of 1952, doolinos in a numbor of oorn trier bolag off ot by « small inortubo in the United Kingdom and s tomowhat bugger incrodro in Westein Germany Industrial production in 1802 largely affected by the recordion in the consume goodindustries mainly tartiler Thono Indus trles rooovered m early 1863 but at tho Am Hm a domnard tendonoy hu appeared in engineer ing industries and thoro aro olgas that this is begin ning to allest outfit in the busto industilo Thing stagnation or declino in activity does not yot appear to have redocod total consumption West orn European countries aro finding in touing dif flonities in ottimowy market, for osporting man UND ATTOX, Report on Special United le. Iron Fid for Economic Development (E/1381) Barch 1951 Tbo Bank for International Settlementa astimates that opital amounting to u mmoh w $3 000 mil lion wa mado avevablo by Western Europo to OTOT How countries in tho five your period 1948 1952 (23rd Annual Report Bacol, Judo 1003 P 42) No mooount has boon talcen of Unltod Btates and intornational grants and ad, dnooit mtber die cult to alloouto poolfo uma to inrustment and still muro dificult to agrloultural mreatment Horrer it should be kept in mind that leator Europe - tbo min recipient of United States grunts and aldnot included in the otimate throughout the tert Too groutor part of much grants and ald going to updor doveloped countries in 1831 us for military purpose and the share of capital goods shipped under VISA 11 relatirely mall. Under the Far East pro- Tam, 06. for the period 1 July 1031 to Jl Decernber 1852, out of total of $ 1026 million of pala chipenents E-5.1 mullon nu for machinery and DO tor vehicle UNITED VATIOXG, Jeannes for the Economic De «clopment of Unlerdevloped Countries Too York slay 1951 p. 79 39 ·ufacture Homover the downward trend in export. has to far been oat weighed by a donline in the value of importa, and the balance of рау monta of Western European countries aro thera foro likely to be at least a farorsblo in 2053 us In 1952, both in total and mth tho dollar in In tho undor-developal countriee the boonomie outlook u largotu dopendont a tho lovel of ex ports and foreign arms and insertment Car ront national plans and programs call for an in arcu in both industrial anil agrioultural prodao tion but to a largo extent foreign oamingo noou mulated bet den June 1850 and December 1951 have now beon med up Tho colfeo Co and potroloum orporting oorntries should contine to beoefit from a rustamod domand for their produota, mpeolady in the United States Othor comtrio may gun from a continued revival of tbe domand for hides wool jute and cotton Foreign in vontmont, boworor still continues to bo inado quato in relation to dovelopment programs doirol by these countnes The level of world trado is of course beanly Influenced by Coonomio conditions in the Unitod Btato For 1863 it in anticipated that the rol umo of Unitod States marchandise imports mar continuo nomowhat aboro 1802 but cxporto may deoling gue of the giuoc nu for Unit States ooul and whoat and of continuing restric tions of dollar Importa in volt ourenoy countries This Iſkoly dovelopment combined with an ex pooted higher Urutor States outlay for military erpaadlturo. ebrood, obouki partly componeto for the declinmg non mihtay ald and “foreign countries should bo ablo to raise their gold and dollar Asmote in 18453 although probably at a lower nato Boforo discoring poolblo dovelopments in 1854 it to neoporary to point out some of the oconomio inon tuntia In the immediate postarar period and again daring tho Korten boom yours the main concern in regard to agrloultural produots n that demand would outstrip mopply boceum of tho rapid oxpansion of Industrial omployment and congumer focomon, thereby curing price lacroust and Inflationary proworog Today the question Hwbother woonomlo errandon and tho consequent inorcano in income and demand in dotoloped areas will bo adequate to absorb tho Inorousing mupply of como agrloultural products at polcos sufficiently muiring to producers to maintain increased pro duction Up to not largo stock of foodstuffs hero accumulatel only in tho collar ara, includ IU 8. DTENT or COX, Surey of Ow Dunca. March 1951. - 12. Ing tho dollar Caribbean countries, and the main fall in food prices has alo ocourred in this ara Oataide the dollar arou there har boen sharp falls in tho prices of grlopinn raw materials from the high loyols of 1031 Thou hare also been acute mulations of stoclo or matrlotions on production of raw materials and boretager such juto cot ton, mbber and tea. Bat apart from temporary difficulties in marketing Rear Entorn grain or ports thoro havo beon no major dotelopments of this kind in tho cut of 100d. Thomo facta som to give a pointer to future course of action Gonerally speaking low favorablo luctors and prolally tho following In 1959 and 1950 thoto hu botn A general dechno in tho Mto of expansion of Industrial production, pocially in tbe more developed countries compareil with 1850)81 ooopt in North America Donbt hus been arrestert about the continuation of tho rate of investment mot durtag tho part two yours, ompecially with a prospectivo roduction in Investment for armament production Vader doveloped countries do not have the resources in torms of foreign oxhange that wero aynilabło dar ing the past two years As tho drive towards solf-mufficiency in agrloulturo and fordustrialien tion guins momentum, thero may bo a short ron tondency tomards • rodnotion in forolgo trado. In the United States there it howovor ramo con oor u to wbother auntnrod rooord todastrial output would be fully abror bod and whether tho currant lovel of prosperity wil bo oontinger! through 1854 agrioultural stooks in suboteutlal rolamon aro aboumulating in the hands of tho gorommont Prioes of farm prodaots on treo markots hero obown wou nou during the current period of record high sconomio activity wany proiblo changes in the political olimato may have coonomio concouT001 which ero boyond the ropo of this roport The Unltod 8tatos cortitute for many coun trom an appreciable part of the market for their total exports and is of spoolal importanco becauo many of their requirements can only bo obtened from dollar U004 Any chango United States imports bus, therefore e marked effect on thair economlo posłtion. In turn, the most important doglo factor determining the rol mo and aloe of importa tato tho Unltor Stater is the lorol of Indirstrial notivity Bomo slowing During the postwar porlod changes in the lovel of United States industriel production have been atomly roflooted in the aurront volume and value of aporta, quarter by quertor On the afore the plan of total Imports and of roultural importa 10 ·down in the rate of crpansion in the United Stator een at a bigh level of cronomic activity touk! bato considerablo impact on MANF countries in chudling Ilestern Furope who doilar camnings Tould be reduced and robore exports to other countries would be affected by their reluced im port cuning Largo and increasing experxlitures on marmn mont and investment for rarmament in the or ranahon of the United States economy in recent yran has meant that there bu beon little danger cxcept la limited rectors, of prodaction outrun ning demand During 1012/03 expenditure for national security remained fairls stable but it is kkely to all off in 1853/84 al 1854/05 It menm anlikely borover for some time to como that there will be any great fell in the prevent rato of expenditure a large amount of past approptutions are still outstarling, but ebanges in the United States defcrue policy might redaco oxpendituren below the provionuly antictpated rato und auch erpendituren w be mye largely do Fotod to weapons and will bo .coorpanied by lege priruto and public in tortmont in cipanding plant to prodace then The crucial question which would arise wbether other form of pabllo erproditure togeth et with parto expenditure for consomption or insertmont, would rimo fast enough to all tho gar I thos bould incrouro mitficiontly to mantain mome thing liko tho recent rate of growth of the United Buates economy # continuing gradual open Nod of United States demand and imports mar bo orpectod. If they did not, which would mean . pauro in the nato ot coonomio growth or even A recension u in 1849 pest ciperlenice muggests that this would be nocompanied by a sharp docline in United States importa which would hero merlows repercumions on the economies of mant other countries Borne factors suggest that it will bo discult to maintain the recent rate of growth. Whilo parato cipeodoro on durablo gnodo might con thodo to increase there is no longer the large back log of demand of the immediato portmar years Yach recent buring of consumers durable poods has been financed bs crorllt which might mon reach an economically sound limit in relation to current income In spite of increuing aks of Away the meent high level of automobile production roms to be outninnig MUSICTA demand with stooks tooumalating and prices declining for wedaar in dealers hande Aslover rate of family formation is now espectod nya result of the low birth rates during the only thir ties, which may weaken the domand for per rear dential building and household goods Ant marked increase in intentories to mallkois ko lang as price lorelo continuo stable or dealios Although current intentbonus for esponellturo na now Indur trial plants and equipment are higher than in Thul thoy could bo qulokly ourtalled if a halt in the expansion of demand began to appear anil esport marketa na TOW as the United States government reduces its aternal akl programs On the other sido thero u tho high rolume of liquid wavings in the hands of American contmort and recent farmga naten hare beon Icoptionally high. Furthermoro ang tax reliet in the Unitor Statet roull facteure personal dupoeblo incomo and might lead to increased private orpenditore Intorent rates were increased sharply during the first half of 100 bat could bo ousad açalo if the rate of lavestment anmod sigue of lackening There B e considerable backlog of non-defonso publio work. which could be put in hand and other melnures are alable to the government for stimulating economio aotivity Although emphasis hus been pat on economic developments in the United Staten It Ex important to note that non-dollar tendo consitutes approri matels 70 percent of world trudo Fattor Euro pean trado abone make up 40 percent o workl esports and imports Its share of yorld osporta has inoreund nince 2018, but its proportion of total world importo decreased although tho luo of imports rowo substantially Tho decline of Uniter! States and funds and perhaps reduced military expenditues abroad may hold some effect on borels of European economio activities But to the extent that the non-doller Arte may continue to maintain a high level of ocenomio notivity and trede tbo offeet of any weakening of economlo conditions in the dollar ara would be reduced In view of all the uncertaintien spoolally tho unpredictablo political dotelot menta no attempt is made in this report to forecast thn likeh conomio trend in 1854 This will charty depond Largely on economic deelopments in the United Stater, the course of work politial orents and other factors But there conditions will Langels influence the future lemanl for agricultural pro docto particularts agricultural law material both In the United States and indreotls in many other co tutte ha changed by about the same percentage u hes tho modural production, but owing to concurrent changes in prior level, the cene of total imports has changed by about :/, time u much

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·Chapter II REGIONAL REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

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·Chapter III - REGIONAL REVIEW AND OUTLOOK EUROPE TABIL LYDO \tram or TRE VOLJXUS OT EUROTAX AonICULTURAL PRODUCTION ot of Im ported Feeding Stu) AND or ParolaTTOY I'mod xotion Port LTOX ilceros LAH INT) 1x1 Proti Lopul) Cnd 1151 160/SI NAH 107 114 116 112 Torth Western Europe Diediterranean Europe 09 113 103 ILI 07 107 107 108 Whole region Erl Eastern Europe 101 114 113 I Agricultaral Production The signs of a renewed expansion of economic prngren in North Western and Alecllttmusean Europe during the first half of 1953 after the lull in 10u2 tho Improved balance of tndo and tho general trend of prices have been discussed in the prorious chapter whore the situation in East ern Europe we also briefly noted. On the agri cultural alle production in North Western Europe has continued to Increur Lr about 2 percent en noally since 1930/31 and this rate of micreare nu maintained 1952/53 Production has kept mece with tho Increase of population since 1031-39 (Tablo 14) and considerably exceeded it in the Uruted Kingdom. The result has been obtained with lower importa of animal feeding stuffs url the index of production net of imported feede oxceeds tho index of grou production by about 8 percent In 1832/63 the production of cereals and rugur cxceeded the aretage of the four pre vous vears but the production of potatoes wu lower and the weather was not generalls for anabo for peature and green fodkler Eren with an er cellent harvest the produetion of bread grains in Frunce and most other continental countries Txarels equalled and in few care exceeded the presar arenage but except in France tbe out put of couno graina was generalls greater than Before the war Cattle and expectallr pig nomben continue to incre and the espansion of livestoel production has tended to exceed that of crop cicopt in the United Kingdom (Table 16) In Mediterranean Europe the crpengon of production has been slower and has not kept paco with population. Iost progres has been achtered in the speolal products of tho region such as frult egetables wine and industrial coupe mout of which are largels grown for crport. A decline in the cereal area bus not been compensated by highor vokle and course grain production in par ticular conuderable less than before the war Livestock production ua whole is not yet at the premar lovel brut is approaching it for milk and eggs. The 10 2 harrest though lower than in 1031 mi generally utofactor except in lu goulerte here for the third time since 1946 thoro ms . serious coop fallure Spain shows algtu of moro permanent retorer After many years of stagnution at a low lovel of production, it has recentls beta produong grain and potatoer abore its immediate reputrements and the output of sunr det ind cotton has exceeded prostoun recorda. A larger production of stoo and rugar has also been future of Italun agriculture in rereat years In Eastern Europe the reeorety of agricultural production has been slow process owing to the For the purpose of the repot Furope has been Nibanded as follom Torth reach Evrope nelut (1) Hetern Europe Belgium, France Irelanul, Lorrmbourg \therlank, Switzerland, United hungdom (1) Northern Furore Denmark, Finland, Ice land, may redan (111) Central Furope Audna Textern Get Jird I rrunean and Southern Europe : Grecce Italy Trupal Xpain, upalaya. ER * Furose Bulgaru, Creudorakle, Een m Cortany Hungary Poland, Rania 13 ·TAL. 16 Enor. Irpe Nn4 or PLODUCTIOX or JIAJOR CHOP AND LIDTOJE Product Bradenton Courtau New hupur Potatoo ut UTUL BOLOV 1110 1111111111 INSULAI 110H041 104 1W1101 PA- 111 Frano United Kingdom Other W Europo Northern Europe Central Europo Southorn Europa 99 141 132 05 92 94 BU 109 87 36 80 173 174 1131 100 1114 84 70 117 113 131 140 145 117122 126 142 140183 83 195 117 112 | 100 I LS 191 117 118 80 87 106 100 100 NB 9020.3 80 BS 104 113 1128 1 1218 118 104 113 107 120 DD 101 12 12 69 701 0 12 90 9) 0 exceptionally cover, destruction during the war rorolutionary changes in tho Agricultural structure and the boury omphads on industrialization The wharo of total investment alooutod to end cultare hou boon amal, and uriculturo . share in the national income of all countries is much Lower than boforo tho mar By 10 horroror all countries in the region or copt Poland more at, or only oughtly below the promar level of eget cultural production and for the region a whole production may be tentatirely estimated at about 8 to 10 pereent lower than before the war Hox over the population to abo some 8 percent laws than before tbo war In general the pattern of production bus pot greatly changed though there has been some incro 1052 crop prodaotion was not atafactory except fa Bolgaria Hungary and parts of Romania muforod from frost and drought while in Crocho uborka where rogar s an important export the yfold of migar borte wus one-third kew than mu oxpostod. Indutrialization has led to un incround demand for llientock prodoots and all countries in this region ou cept Poland have increased their Ilyatock pubert. In Eastem Germany in particular the splitting ap of large states has contributod to thba dornlopment each of the small farms koop ploend total number in Den oomber 1032 woro almost 15 percent greater than In 1938 Lratook number u tho regros buvo repeatedly Hansboro tho fodder supply and largely on this account productivity per animal has been roduced and the output of Mrestock producto be incround low than tho animal population The Incround of agricultural production In North Watarn and Holtorreneun Europe bu been accompanied by a low of 2 to 3 percent of the form land. Output per hectaro has increased by 16 to 17 perdent enco 1031-38 In North Western Europe this resulta pertly from an increase of about 18 percent in the told of anble crop (Table 16) closely connected with an increum of 80 percent in the use of fortion and the wider two of und proved varetlen, and partly from the better at lization of grelend en botter livestock maragon industrial crop Taun 1 - EUROPE 1 ILD PAR HECTARE OT Lavou (RON 1948 63 - PuIceT OT 1934 18 (re ten Kortben Central puuttua 40 raro AHD - Wheat Ryo lp 104 111 120 MIZ 100 10 117 217 104 211 TO 90 88 08 IOT 104 103 114 43 83 Darley VAIR Rw0 Potater Yugar (ms) 100 117 107 14 90 128 lienerem (wheat eqorralent) 118 109 I21 91 101 The amordert bet only the best to the Theio the topretin crops hat be the out is the rehun it portance of the top is total art the truth t potaton udby for us In T55 (loch po hectare) In the toorkannt the brot MTT rion the chun ta the cuppine paleto a better Duated by tortion to the feed to treats to be 16 ·ment Thos milk yielde per cow show . gradual upyard tend in most countrie and in the Notherlands Bellam and Dotimark thov exceed 3000 kg. per COT por your (Figure 8) Although fortilizer applications have increased at abont tho mume ruo in the Mediterranea area they are til very low and their effect and not offret urere factors, including drought Yields of uroblo crops have been womewhat lower than before tho ar Rapid mechanization has also contributed to the Increued productivity of agriculture in North Wertera Europe by permitting more timely oult) mation. It has beon accompanied by a marted decline in tho number of horno. In some countrie. potably the United Kingdom and Sweden, and ulro by a reduction in the number of hired workert. Mechaniution is still oni relatively small roulo in Blodſtounean Europe where capital invest mont in agriculture is lower and rural mempower in Icern of rool requirements (Table 17) followol by only blight fall in consumption. Meat consumption in tho United Kingdom Increased to 1032 оsinly owing to larger home production now yering 36 percent of consumption, but the corrumption of cheese and butter fell boastiko of import restriotions The traditionally low levol of combamption In Blollterranean Europe has changed very little In Spain, ho cover tho two good propu of Ihl und 1952 havo led to come improvement in tho quen tity of food consumed in Italy a langer por apat consumption of milk and sugar suggests romo incround consumption of the moro oiponsivo foods though this doou not appear to havo oxtond od to ment and eggo Larger imports of ginta did not fully compoonto the crop falluro in Yu goalavia flour extraction nton for wheat and ryo had to be micreated to do percent and food palcom inolading the stato controlled price of broad in cround considerably Elmewhere in Bloditerranean Europe the cost of food has remained remarkably sablo dnoe 1031 after yourt of rbring food prices. An apprawal of food congumption lorelo in Raster Europe & more difficult Tho area to prododng noerly as much food por houd of the population us before thy war and in countries which were formaly osporten of food and where provar consumption lovels were low por capat consumption is likoly to have ingrounod. In Hungary howoror the crop failure of 1862 brought about a broad shortage It is in the more induntrialized countrie of Eastora Germany and Czochoulavekla which had fately high consump. tlon lorob before tho mar that food dialoulthen hero boori groatert Consumption There broro no mejor changes in food oorratap ton lovole in North Tastem or editorCAN Europo in 1832/03 In North Western Europe food pricom tonded to rlso during 1952 but the me levelled out in 1963 and in some countries pricou at lount of meat onded to ine TYhere food subudles woro roduced, u in the United hingdom and Iroland rotall prices in creed cor rospondingly but with relatively littlo effect on corrumption Thae an increau of 8 percent in the price of milk in the United Kingdom wu TALE 17 — (AND IN THI VUXIAS or Hom, TRACTONS AND HIRED TORITRY IN CERTATX Euxortix COUSTIN Hornet Tracters Orodorten (Our Jrrrer 1910 1031 Appadnete Mate or ter 1133 معلموه 1936-1951 TER Then Pirert +45 584 10 BOB I Belgium Denpark Franco Gormeny o turn Netherlands wolen #urhent Inted Kingdom 1 588 il 18 133 119 23 1 20 1 570 55 440 1344 640 80 IO 24 189 202 31 0 133 15 TS 18 8 05 7- 140 1 084 131 114 18 148 3 Tu & crento) 70 81lt 5 B1 JKS 743 03 ULEX und Tattopal tathub Pot vor The Arben Yo Teble Huwul intornt ·FIGURE 8 - MILK YIELDS PER COW IN SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Kg/cowler Number of cow' uport al tou! Netherlands 3500- Belgium Danerk 3000 Luxembourg Swawriend 02 27 4, Sweden United Kingdom W Germany 11 0 17 4 2500 Finland Norway 2 3 2000 Ireland Franca Aurtra 36 22 1 3 4 Italy 92 1500 Yugoslavia 1000 Gruca 05 Pro war 1951/52 Toal 16 countri 1000 48 ·tons in IL to 513 thotham toni in IR IRUJ its whole coreal Import of 100 to 60 and tons is oxected to momo from the Appreciablo alıpment, of wheat from tho V Also stnt to Egypt India and Pakistan i and 1033 and in achlition Eastern Europe ed 110 thousand tons of sugar to Egpt in Fisheria Trade The generally goord hartent of 1W2/63 reduced the import requirements of North Westem and Jediterranean Europe escort lubolarta Im port restrictionu doo to balance of payments dim cuito especul's by the United Kinglom and to como cay tho minning clown of stocla accu molated earlier albo contributed to the reactlan Precs of imported food, except for coffee, rico and United Kingdom meat import, tended to checlino wo that the cost of food imports fell by more than their rolame The United Kingdom wu an exception the of He importo de clining by 11 percent and their valuo by oph B pretcent TTith larger non-doller supplley of grain, as well as an increasd domestio jroduction, corral imports from tho dollar are declined but thero * no marked decline in total dollar im Tortk Thas the percentage of imports of food feeding stuffs and tobacco from the dollar arta into the United Kingdom and Mastern Germany the two largest inporten, fell by o porcent from 1831 to 20 porcent and 28 percent respectivels Tho recovery of European food exports vos chocked In Tou? by import reatrlettono thoagh there no very largo decline Exports of batter from Denmark fell bat otheru be exports of litestock products were malatamed end ut somoshat higher prices. Butuh import restrictiona led to malor imports of fruit and vegetables but thanla to larger importo into eatern Germany the total rolumn of trado was not greatly reduced Er port. of tobacco from Greece and of rice from Itals Spain and Portugal shoned rondderablo lacruene over 101 In 1910-51 about 8 percent of the bread grains and 12 percent of the courro grains imported into Torth Western (excluding Finland) and Southru Europo came from Estern Europe and URS.R This compares with 23 percent and 18 percent respectively beforo the war of allowance is made for shipments from Eustern to llestern Germany In 182/13 the proportion declined further Unit ed Kingdom importe of grain from the Sortet I tuon fell to 100 toward ton compared with une million tons the year before 8mmen obtain er nor a few thouand ton of maize compareil with 10) thousand tons of wheat in 1931/3 Finland is the onlr countrs which has imported LETELY 96 Kupplies from Eastern Europe and the USSR its imports rbing from 318 tlouuni Prou blonal figures indicate slightly landing in 1039 in most of the main Eu fishing countries except the United h where they increased by about # percent t thouand metro tons As . retult of the tion of the Torth Seo atocks of domes the propondorance of cod and alm of hort tho European markets has increased Jlo the Arctic and Atlantio cod is often of poor because of the long distances over which been transportel Marketing dificulties therefoto ariven, particularly where the int erailability of alternative fooil.hu consumen more discriminating and where pestriction here limited the tackata for 6 products. Attempts aro ling medo tom and increaso demand by better quahty Ad attractive producto especially in Denma Morzy and by Nales promotion cam In addition the Over fishing Conrention « *u finally ratified early in 1953 and . Per. Commission has been appointed to menores for the conservation and t up of stocks in nearer maten e peoially more popular rartetien. The continuing rise in production con fether with uncertainties about both mark Awberres resources hore veriously delayel placement of obeolescent craft i proble being condered by several governments ing theme of France the othorlando . United Kingdom с Forest Pr icte The ont demand in 111 uffcote the industries of Europe more mererely thai of other regions. In fartioular tho exporting countries experienced great all and had to curtail production from tho 1 retora letel of 101 Decaor of the } demand for Anbibed products thero musi spowling fall in demand for rouodsoort i Arlogy and polpood Coal mun Lote 1031 hal dificulty ln obtaining p Thr OFFT 16e des for imported food fil fm 1010 n thr wenn qurter of 101 to 93 in the liqurer of 1952. 10 ·ward thorofore ablo to Inorous their purchases in 1852 Imports of pitprops rote sharply (Tablo 18) espooially into the United Kingdom and stock at tho boal mino rosto e postuar rooord level at the ond of 1852 (Table 19) Earlier supply diffoultlas horovor forood minor to economise in thor aro of pltpropa. This trend has contin uod and resulted in a lower consumption in pite of un lacroeso in coul produotion. The supply outlook for 1053 und 1951 lo generally uatisfactory last months of 1952 when the demand rovirod and ponumer found it necessary to roplenish stocks Scandinavian pulp production gain began to Increase but remained well below tho pak nato Now print wu the only notablo orception to tho fall in European domand for palp products. The market thu recoirod . revero setlock in 1962 and to tho unortainty for the future has been added the (Ufficulty of adjusting production conta to the nor lovel of prices partioularly in Finland Tapro 18 TAU ID - EurorLAN Sroom! OT BANWOOD AND PITBON (at the ond of the your) EUROPEAN TRAD. IX PITTROM AND Putwood Pitprops Pupwood ITE 1051 1051 11.31 1151 Iru 115 1051 1035 1 400 1 303 Th. Nadadien fer Total Imports * 490 4 019 3 4 0 0 of which from ororen. 2 1 1 757 Total osports 1007 4 000 4 176 3X01 of which to ovo ou 184 17 06 Sawn softwood (000 stdo) Sawn berdwood (000 cu m.) Pltprops (000 ou. TILT 1 197 10 1 316 3 000 3 740 8 378 1 Reportiu co tries only Outlook Tho situation for pulprood Tus momowhat dif foront. Dloat pulpwood industrio mado largo parohato in 1001 whon prioos word raing With the merkot for pulp producte falling, and now supplies of pulpwood erriring, stocks of pulpwood at the mill. already rathor high at the end of 1001 oontinued to Inorous. Imports of palp. wood foll though only to a wight ortent In respeot to Awwood the common resistanco of tho Importing countries to the high prioos which doveloped in 1851 almost brought the market to u stendetili in tho first half of 1002. This falling trond continued throughout 1952 and stabilize tlon of demand became noticeable only at tho boginning of 1063 Thu, United Kingdom pur chures in the autumn of 1852 for 1953 delivery led to a slight rike in prices which contioned into tho nov year The rouction of the European pulp and paper market to the port Koroen rime in prioce u oven Nharper Whon in 1951 picos roso to bottom two and three times their former level, importing countrie Imposed price cellingu or other restric tions on imported pulp From the beginning of 1052 pult polcon foll sharply doollning industrial production reduced the demand for paper end bourd und consument chose to dar on their stoclo and avait orento The high prices ako reduoed oxport, to tho United States and other countries outdo Europe La the northern orporting coon trtes palp output nu restricted Baging mas remumed and the ful In prices halted only in the There are as yot no indication of any hart break in rocont tronde. Industrial and agricul tural production m Europo aro unlikely to lacroun groetly in 1903/84 over tho 1052/lovol and pri Oen sem líkoly to remain relatively stable Thro downward trond of lfrestock prices particularly meat may continuo horover with inorodng supplies and lower prices of imported follog stuff. Thort have been pomo changes in poco poliele Thus the price roviow in the United Kingdom for 1053 puts additional emphasis on boef onttle and higher peloos for potatoom and rogar boot for which aorengo have boon declining Tho marketing of egg hu been freed from oontrol nitioning and prloo control of coroak and fooding stuffs eade on 1 August 1003 but ruprort pricen for these products romain. Although the now prico. giro e comaldorable rocoupunont for thing conto some mergin to loft to be covered by grantor ofiologoy Since the roules tho award of Incround wgos to farm workers is aspectod to nale costs by a further 112 million annuus Prices of bread graine ment and eggs in Svoden will be lower in 1059/84 and the roboides on mallk be reduced. The procent robeldy hus result od In stady increure la production to a lovel which oceads domestlo roqairements. Phot guar untees only oorer the bomo market and any mer 60 ·plus must be exported by the formen co-opera the organization at the best prices obtainable With a stablo domand no major changes in the pattern of production am expected Crop arou for the 1953 harvest appear to be abont the mame u last year Autumn kming of wheat here increared in the United Kingdom but vero pomowhat lower in France Testem Germeny and some other countda beans of anfavorable weather at weeding time Thord will honover bo more spring wheat The whift from oats to berlor or mind grain will continue and in Test em Germany prices have been adjusted to hasten this shift In Spain, lust whater drought will redace wheat production, but in Italy there MAT bo An Increlse ovor the pro1700 jaar Denmark and Spain aim at a lower are of suger beot because of export difficulties and a reduction of 8 to 10 percent is intended in France where there is rurplus of alcohol from sugar beet Last winter', floods to the United Kingdom end especially in the Netherlands though werlows for individual farmers are not bkoly to baro major effect on the total agrionltural output of these countries. into 1853 elthough at a much reduced rate. Tho downward trond in expenditures on nex plant and equipsient at the beginning of 1952 wu to. ersed by the end of that year and such orpendi tures increased through Juno 1953 rosching in the United States . record annuel nato of $28 4 thoanand million in tho roond quarter of 1053 Personal consumption oxpedulituro in tho Unitod States In the first quarter of 1853 roro B percent higher than a year sarller with thouo for darablo goods raing more than threo timer u fut us for non durables. A substantial portion of theno purchas do horover more bought on cury credit torm and the rolamo of outstanding contumet credit at the end of Day 1853 u almost 25 percent higher than your earlier Contrary to post axperience the expansion in the economy was not actumpanied brv rising gon el picon and farm prices ovo receded approaably in both the United States and Canada Thus the higher national and personal incomes represented real lacreasen of purobasing poret Importo increased, but total exports of the roglon us a whole remained farly stablo Agricul tural exports doclined hearily especially from the United States duo to the improved supply situation abroad. Whillo the regions oxport murplus www thus roduced, the value of imports in the first four months of 103 4coounted for only 72 percent of exports us agatnet 84 percent in 1932 leaving a vizeablo trado surplu which, bow orer counted largely of United States granta- In-ald shipments of dofento materials. Although the dollar gap thus becamo much lov burdensomo discriminatory trado practices via-via tho dollar countries contributed to the inability to rell dollar products freely NORTH AMERICA Ge ral Economic Conditions Pastained high levels of economic actirits chancterized the United States and Canada in 1852/ 10.13 For tho year 1032/03 industnal production in the United States was about percent aboro that of 1031/32 eitilan employment averaged oter 018 maillon end unemployment was lere than 5 percent of the total cilluan labor force. Personul income rurpuwed $294 thouand million (annual rate) in Jar 1033 more than $20 thousand million higher than a year earlier Canade indas al production also toho about 7 percent for the fimmt nino months of 1832/53 compared with the sa mo petund a searaEmployment ru perrent higher in March 10.53 than in March 1952 and unemployment accounted for 3.3 percent of the labor force National income in Ihru 6 per cent higher than . rear earlier and kept on incttung in marts JAX Roing goretament expenditures for goods and versicer upoanting to percent of grow national proluet in the truted States and to 18 percent in Canada in 103: (10 and 15 percent respectfrels m 1031) contnbuter! heerlr to maintaining gen eral properit and this and trend contingel Agricultaral Prodaction Agricultural production in Noorth America dar ing the past year wu at a rocord level 43 percent above the provar uverage and on . por ceput basta 16 percent Pood prodaction total and get capat, mudo even greater gaim (Tablo 20) In tho United States 1932 crops rere harrestod In Dearly Weal reather from Deady 138 mil Llom be an incre Over 1951 but less then in Any Tear between 1913 und 1040 However the index of all crop production exceeded that of any other fear except 1918 The total production of foodgrains 37.8 million tons hey been exceeded only in 104/18 although nearls equalled in 1018/19 Abont 109.3 million tons of feed grain ere barststed neart 7 percent more than in 51 ·10-31 A neer rocord tonnage of oilgoods of 149 million tons almost oquallod the 100 million tons of the provious year TAJIA 20 LIDE NUD TBS or VOLUX OF TOTAL AND P. Carot ALIOULTURAL AND FOOD PRODUO- TION D MOTH AVO, 1948-80 TO 195453 bat choose production wu down 205 portant mostly us a rooult of Import restrictions in tho United States and the United Kingdom Tobecoo product lon in the United States ou about 4 percent smaller than tho 1001 rocord orop of 1 066 thousand metro tons. Canadian production declinod by about 10 percent Tho 1957/03 United States ootton crop of 34 million tons harvested from : rodaood eres, ox ceeded tho provlous year's production by nearly 5 peroont LEK 1911 30 1051/01 1181/3 NU-IH 1356 139 3 11" 3 1904 1984 121 B 14 7 1450 13 Total agricultural produotion Total food production Population Por ouput 4Ticultura] prodaotion Por caput food produstlon. Agricultural Trade 115 6 113 1 110 8 118 7 113 9 118 4 Prochuction by Oro Hetas Thout Halo Boot und veel Pigmoet Egg HITE Cotton 146 0 104 O 1245 1 141 9 103 0 113 1 104 1 143 7 141 7 124 7 1668 172 ol 113 0 115 1 185 4 101 7 133 8 100 6 1001 113 4 114 3 Toto: Ovog to recent chur is the petbod 1 con tructuur te FAO prodott Indice the data ro Dot compare to thom puble bed in TAG Il to of read Amlouhuru Rovine and Otto) 11TI In Caneda rocord wheat productron at 18.7 mil lion tons ordoodod tho previous your br 24 percent und wus more than donblo the postwer uverage. Incround production rus also rocorded for barley potatoes ruger boots and the oll crops. Somo door use in output occurred for fruits and vegetables Livestock and poultry on fermo and ranches in the United States Incrouod alightly during 1852 Cattlo Durbon on farm wore at * reoord high of 03 7 million. Total meat produotion for 1802 1063 wu about 5 porvent above the 1851/52 love) with farm marketings of moet animal increuing aspoolelly ia leto 1802 and the first half of 1903 over the lovel of your ourllor Among mosta only pork production doolned bolow the level of 1861/62 Poultry and egg output more sod mod entely fik production in 1032 at 527 mil lion ton u virtoolly unobanged from 1851 Cuttlo aumbort on farm in Canada as of 1 Do. comber 1952 roro 16 porcent higher than your carller bat hog numbers declined about 5 percent Meat production wou higher in 1962 than in 1951 Total milk output nu 1.8 percent above 1051 The total value of United States farm exports in 1952 foll 15 portent from tho 1051 vel. In the first three months of 1963 they doclined to only 85 percent of tho values of the sumo quarter . your carllor Tho dealinom tote values werd quod by lower proo us moll us by umallor quan tition Cotton crports in 1952/53 ero ostimatod at about half of 1061/62 esports whillo grains morod well in erport markots until tho large arop of the Southern Hemisphoro boormo availablo in party 1063 Tobeoco orports were affected by the new United Kingdom Import rotnotions in tho pring of 1952 The total volume of agricultunl imports into the United States remained at a very high levol during 102 and the first quarter of 1053 Most Agrioultural imports with tho major exception of coffee howover were priced oonddonably lower than in 1951 and the slight incrous in quantities imported was moro than offrot by price doolinos so that in 1952 total import valuoe woro down by 12 percent The retrlotions on dairy importa woro pertly alleviated in the summer of 1952 but restrictions on other datry Iteme hero tightepod in viow of porslblo large government boeken in price support sotivation for those commodities In contrut to the United Stata the value of Cansdun agricultural asporto Incolod 10 poroent m 1052 Over 1961 due to the large prin exports. Tho volume of wheat oporte wu 35 percent higher in 1862 than in tho provIOUR your and a ports of barloy more than doubled. Erports of animals and animal products however doolmed almost 32 percent m value and 24 percent in volamo u ratult of the foot and mouth dlaeus and tho United States ombargo on Imports from Canade which was Afted early in 1853 How Yor during the Arst four months of 1053 esports of Agricultural producte dropped by poorly 7 percent below those of year 40 63 ·Price and Income btato import omlango I rice support measures corral bref here butter chectean een Dempite the decline in princo morired by farmer prices gekl roro lor o perecnt during 11,2 ani famnan net income in 10 fell 11 percent from the reconl lugh in ILI Fisheriet Domestio demand for agricultural product. In the United States during the mtire year 1932/13 continued at level abort those of 1931/32 but the decline in foreign demand and increaned oppplien resulted in low or farm prices. Preo declines were greatest for those producte eg cattle and sheep which were not supported by the golemn ment and for cotton domestically supported but ron much dependent on esport markets Ferma prices for meat animals in 1059/53 (July Jur) fell about 18 percent and cotton prices hg about 14 percent reachmg the price support minimam by January 1033 Thcet prices or the end of the 1032/33 year dropped sharply reaching a level alont 15 percent below the provious years and in many cuso, bo low the price support lovel. The lovel of farm prices by June 10-13 down ll perrent from the same month year ago Governmont price rapport activities for a number of products increased considerable in the first half of 1053 and helped stop further downuurd movements. The Commodity Credit Corporation was called on to suppis greatly in creased rolume of loads and almo made outright purchases of large quantities of dairy and othor jwodacts under prorrfone of the existing leglala tlon. The valdo of commodities pledger for outstanding loans and commoditica in price surport Inventory w of 31 Mar 1033 totalled $3,248 million compared with 31,620 million . vear ago The Inventory holding made up 50 percent of the total investment The main products affect ed wete what make tobacco and cotton Prices paid in fermer except farm sagen ako dedlnod but much lethan peice received Net farm income including inventory changer dar ing 1952/6.3 wu estimated at 3 pereent Lolos 1051/52 Prices received by formen in Canada declined by 10 poroent during 1032/33 Cattlo priemy fell to almost one third Below the 101 level as foot and month dkateralted in . Unutel The total 1012 atch of fish crustaceans and mollunk in the United States and Alaka wa como 2,34 000 metric tons , decrease of about 2 percent in the quantity anr 3 percent in the total raluo Tho declivio u doo primarlly to the physical failuro of tho California pilchani flaber where the landings dropped to broly 3,000 tons compared with 160 001 ton in 1931 and 500 000 tona in 1038 Tuna fish production in North America doplined womowhat The wholesalo prico index for all fish was slightly lower in December 1952 than year earlier On both the Atlantic and Pacifio conto of Canada ontoh moro a little lowor then in II On the Canadian Atlantio weabourd, stimolatel be price increuen cod landing increased in 1032 and also the landings of plaice and flounder er halibut increased in the The Canadian cannor let klachened their domand for herring which was in plentiful apply on the flgherinen disa poved of large quantities (romo 30 000 tona) to tho United States cannerlos The averago melling price lo 1032 wu 81.34 per 100 lb compared with 6908 in 1931 On the Pacifio side almon landed in Batish Columbia in 102 docreared to 6,200 tons comparod with 80 300 tons in 10.31 ina sosult of loner prices and too stiker Tho Canadlan vot const her Ang fishery produced during 1052 R4 800 toum about half the 1931 production of 163.000 tons Forestry ne apott ha Ixem crtexleil on the 103 TOT to the amount of $70 mulion through 31 Sray 1903. The total incuded loans onde 1000 million jurchas agreementi --$_38 million And non-greement rutrum -- 413 milhon Tais nur NT 674 million rate than the total ur porer Typort which Ini bren citendeil on 1931 rupe tlmoph 31 Jar 1037 The meter activity is arrunted fr in large part in ineon nf $180 million in the volud ol brat Inan en meer of $4+ million in the volume I en loans, and an incredo of $16 million in coton Toone, Tho prolaction anul trade of forcut producto in Torth Amorias depow almont entirely on the domenil in the United Stata The economio sit ution of the forest fulastries in Canada war not quite u furorallo w in the prorious year with lower output 1 roftening of prices and changes in oretheas market. I'rovluction of roundwoor! phich in other regions abr wel great changes te mained nther stable in Torth Amerira The demand for sawoord in the Unital Stater ile diperl womenut in 131 1 . rnult of reluceat Lallding artiritt but stepped up in 102 - 63 ·TAJLE 21 I DA \Uwuts or VOLUME TAL AND PER CAPUT AONICULTURAL AX PRODUCTION IN LATLY ANANICA, 104 1901/03 1118 50 ITB sror. 1931/ 1 AIL LATIY AXENICA Itu agrioultanal production Fond production Population Per caput agtrutural po clootion Per caputt for production 12 177 131 restnction imposed on production of sugar tho 1002/53 agrioultural production is estimated to hero falica lry 17 and 11 percent ret pretirely Loloy the 1951/52 lotels Food production in 1952/63 advanced 8 percent alightly less than total agricultural proluction au compared with the presrous yeusslere! Hororor if Argentino and Culmen production are excluded from the total, food production in the rencainder of the region apunded only 3 percent ie an improvement of not more than 1 percent in the por cepat food production Despite tho subatan tial increu in the regional production of food, production per caput fs 1832/03 is slightly low the averago during the three years 1918,49 to 1950/61 and still about 4 percent below the average of the flro years procoding Worki War II Нок tbo rowults in 10.52/03 roprenent a substan the improvemont from tho low of 1951/52 when due to tho sharp drop in Argentine agricultural output Latin American por caput food production fell to about 9 percent below the prepar lotti (Tablo 21) 120 124 03 07 91 cior LATEX AXARICA EXCLUD IN ARGENTINA Total agncultural produco tion Food production Population Por caput agricultural pro- (luetion Per caput food production 141 131 139 110 13 101 JM 102 108 ALL LATIN AUTRICA, Produot for of Jajor Com Ipolitse Cereals Slaber Want Itice (rough) Otler coreak R1 01 22+ 18 BD S7 2 85 218 108 132 208 100 124 10 201 Roots Cada Potatoes Hweet potatoes Sugar (oxolaking panela) Edible Olmedo (olloquira lent) Orbert food crops Dry been Banana Cuno Animal food Hat 100 190 110 131 Malor Commodity Changes Produotion of cercals durby 10.2/63 was about 36.5 million tons Against 20 7 million in 2001/52, and about 4.5 million tons above the former peuk year 1950/61 Tho main contribu tion was made by Argentina, where production of coreuls roy to nearly 14 million tons against tho 81 mmon during the poor crop rur 1051,0% Homoter with tho rajor orception of Uruguay Dort wheat producers had better crop than last year and in many countries production mus at record lorely. The region prodaced 100 million motrio tone. A rocord and more than 6 million tops oret the poor 191,62 crop Latze produc tko mu about 177 million tons, a postwar record chearly equibng the record of 18 million tons for the 1934-38 period Large adnancer in Ar gentin. Jogico ind other millor producers moro then off et reduced marzo CTOT mainly in Clule Ecuador Colombia and Costa Rike Improved Argentine crops of rye lerley and at rootel In substantial increases in regional output Com rared with 1031 8.2 production of je meteaser by 180 percent and that of lurley and outs br B0 percent Rice production continnel to cx peod as in protioun ren an mas percant alore the 10.31,32 total Output of mots al tulet was up slightls es mantoc production increased Is Opercent Lactan area and good weather accounted for 147 113 100 110 137 *113 157 127 116 148 118 171 I 70 Fibers (otton (lint) Wool Iclan bath) Her Aben Oikt produelt Tobacco [ondible oilrends (oll cui lent) (cm IH 110 87 To Ono to tront capat atkode of 101 In tbe F10 produtha ludort, data are not tret. publet the pabbed 1 but yrer Hunt Trik Oil Pu Yttu estopanble with dat p with hub NM Uorrit omni Data corte podlox tainder seu 1951 Date This to ale wt 1031 ·ment production in this country Vent ontpit for the region was about 2 porcent holow the 0.5 million tons atimatol for tho preceung Fear alcaplto the light gains in other countriem Output of milk, honelut due to a fool pasturage altuation and increasing mik cattle numben konnel Camal trend of notca after two conçoittire ymn of stagnation originating in a sotinck in romo of the major proluoing countries Argentina nne Chile an increase of about $ pement in the production of rolet In mort countne prowluction of dry beans yaa larger than the year beforo A reduction of 18 jcreent occurred in meer production duo mtirely to official restrictions in Cube And Puerto Rico Prodlnction in moet other countries incrcraal, borster rith the major exceptlons al Argentina Baul and Pregny Where dermato increased mugar enno production lnd reatbor during the crushing period remitted in ontmit being slightly lower than in the prestons your Production of oileceds measure in oil equin lent recotured women lint from the sotbach in 1031/62, though it was still about 80 thousand tonu below tho 1050/61 penk of 1.2 million tons The percent increas in rolume during 1012/03 over 1831/62 was entirely doo to highor pra duction of inedible olleed mainly linaced. Although production from now planting of coffee will materialne at a later date the botter care giren to old plantatione has realted in a steady increase in ontrut during the last three year Total yieki in 1032/63 3 estimated at nearly 2 milllon tons alont 7 percent abovo the volume of last year Brost of the BCTCLIC origi nated in a larger Branlian orop though most Trawlaceri particularly tbo Central American countries also had bottor crops than in 1051/62 Iroduction of bananas Increased 9 percent aboto last yeur whon about 89 mulllon tons word prolaceil. Bulutantial increaxs occurred mainly in Brull Morico arul Eoiuador The pain in the Lattor has been impremire production haring IWC than doubled in two years and Ecuador is now nort to Bruzil anong tbo principal Latin American prolucern Production of tobacco and cncro also expanded with guns of alout 5 and 3 perrent respectively aboto last year Cotton out rut was 10 percent aboro tbe 038) Otona (Binnel) produced in 1831102 This gain a dire to a 30 procent increure in the Brullan crop remulung from larger planted arta under the stimulus of official Aurport rokee policies ord bugher yiekls per bertare than in the perfour racon Among other major cotton producers Peru had a recon! crop vot Jirsico wa alertal by the mettre infotations in the cotton Arcas The wool clip ctimatol at 1800 tons (clean hai) remaine! almont unelunged from 1831/03 Arlight clecime in Argentina n reark off et le pains made los Het produceta The meatim dari ind planghtering controls minim in Argentina ainee aris 1812 ur reflected in the timestal ecline (optrent in Agricultural Trade Rolucod orport supplies and a deolinc in foreign domand romltod in a sharp contraction of 20 percent in the volumo of agricultural esporta in 1052 from that of 1951 dun mainly to greatly reduced exports of wheat ollxede and oils, sogar and meat laizo mool tobacco and collco shipmenti ciceeled those of 1051 Agricultural inuports also deoUned by about 6 pxoroont although therr was an increase of about 10 percent in wheat imports The catraction in agricultural trade daring 1852 largely reflected doolines in Argontina becauno of subætantially reduced export atailabili tica, in Bruil because of over pncing as comparcel with current world market quotations for certam commodities, and in Cuba Largely as a result of the declino in foreign domand for might With momo oicoption agriculturl exports from otber countries were generally larger than in 1851 bot importo more emaller TALE - INDEX OM OT V OLITUE OF LATIN AYRICAN AQRIOULTURAL FONTIOX TRADE 1 YCAR Giron Oro Not The portiroporto) porta DAN 1949 10.0 151 181 93 00 91 83 A7 29 170 100 109 BO by 19 kal nl romantik tjela The demand for Latin American format tro lacta droppel in 1954 Both Intra romonal and inter regional Export traila decline with Brazil ling the most retroualy affectel exporter Outlook Generally meets are Fox! for expandlung Agrienltural proluction Inring the next two 67 ·yoan. Gran production may be aboro the high lorel of 1952/03 though that of whoat ta lkoly to be somoshat leur, partoularly during 1853/04. Some rodoction may ocour in the Argentine wheat output, mboue, u in 1862/63, yioldo por hectare continuo high w compared with normal years and the proportion of harvosted area against owings remains at a record lore] The Braillan wheat arop will continue to bon further gama of the objective of one million motrlo tons of whoat by 1800 t Lopt enabanged bexico Chulo Porn and soino othor countries whoro pro grams for espanding grain produotion are currently andor way will probably continue to shop further gains in output It u likely that most of tho gain in ooreal produotion will come from an in creato in maizo though wheat and rice may also bo at highor lovok than at prevent particularly ly 198485 Area and production of doprostio food crops much 1. palmes, ofleoedla, frosh rogotable and potatoos may show further gain during the next two your in line with the objectives of the varloum oflolul programs Official restrictions on mugar production are likely to bo maintained in Cube and Puerto Rico This will keep output during tho nort two years bolow the record loral of 124 million ton in 1851/02 though it may shor mome gama abord tho 12 1 million tons in 1852/03 AA a result of continuing expansion in othor countries many of them producing wloly for homo consumption Any further expansion of ootton production claring the port to years over tho 11 million tons (ginned) in 1962/63 will be largely dopondent on changes that may ooour in Brall whow our rent sharo in regional output is about 60 percent Rodooed workl prices and diffionitlo in dlrposing of the 1852 crop may be reflected in . drop in Brullan output of 16 to 20 peroeut m 1003/04. Continued expansion in other countries and the roootery aposted in Blerico crop are not likely to offoot the drop in Brudl On balanco It appean that for 1963/04 produotion will be lower than in 1961/62 but in 1901/08 cotton output may Inoroux gain, but not crcood the peak of 1862/83 unlers world donanıl and prior not mean chilo The 1853/04 coffee crop may oqual that of the provious year romo increase for most prodnoon offrotting a light doolino estimated by Brull on Ito nert crop The outlook in more proming for 1861/60 won the collection from ner plant ings may tart to materialne In revend oorinteles For that year output is likely to come for the first timo clon to the 21 million tons aroragod in 1934-38 The mstaned doclino la Argentina , meat out put during the past four year espected to como to an end in 1053 and regional output may Inoroure This prospoot lo confirmed by the record lorel of Ihrestock numbora atmated at the beginning of 1963 Eren in Argentina wbero cattle numbers were redacod in recent years because of persistent drought, livestock numbers are again at a record rocording to tho Torrmber 1939 connu Inorousing most output during the most two year, especially in 1954, will also bo grestly influenced by exoting official programsand by goverally better prico relationships than those prevailing in proviot your Tho Am gonerally favorablo condition, apply to tho powiblo further expansion of milk and other llrostock production Output of mill particularly is likely to orpand moro rapidly than population growth This may not botho Leto far nient during 1963/64, though the rate of ospanolan mey be cooleratod ly 1954/5.5 Pinherios production oror the nort two year may continue to aspand, though at lower rates than in recent years, unless procent inadequato markoting organizations and arting transport deficiencies are improved. In many countrom, low rates of prodootivity por fiberman 19 not improve unloud thero 1. tomo modomization However in Argentina, Brazil, Chillo Blerico Poru adu Venezuela, finhory ilustries are fabrly doveloped and it by in the no contro that prospects for fustained expansion of proluotion are more promisng Inorendng domestlo domani for forest prodluote will stimulate a further expansion in this industry Produotion for osport may also bo ospanded by pro poctivo improved belanoo of payments con ditions in pomo of the importing countries Tue Brulllan timber prodoction particularly will benefit from the Dow ourronoy lam and tho now commorcial treaty with Argentina Edsting plans for greator production of wood pulp uing hitherto unoxploited raw material. Il aloo farur . fur ther expansion of the forest Industries Esportable supplies of pricultural products in 18 mill bo largor than in 1962 doo to Iporcuaed output of nourly all major commodition The export demand for ooffoo will likoly roman trong The fulfilment of the prevent United Kingdom Argentine ment agreement will requiro .30 pet oont increase over lut years meat oporte. On the other hand Uruguyun crports will be lors Because of the new outbreak in Morico of foot 08 ·inero w wimonbat bigher than the rate of population growth but por cepat supplies Tore probably not approclably different from those in the previous yer because of tho larger vnlome of food exporte. TARLY 1. GE NUWA or TOTAL UD PER Carut AQUICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN ANNICA 1918 KO TO 1032113 ITY 1141-36 ATTLE 1731151 1951155 Talal Production All commoditie Pood only 124 134 137 1345 118 Total Population Per Cape Production All corrmoditie Food only 107 10.1 110 108 111 109 apd mouth disease announced in May 1983 the United States harder roopmed lato in 1852 after several year, max cloved ugain to importa ot Dierican cattlo If this situation perskats earlier expectations of increuang Berloan cattlo exports in the near fature will not materiallzo Angeline live animal aporta, on the other hand will be continued and probably In increase ing numbers Sugar osport, which fell wharply durmg 1852, all aborr Uttle change some of the minor exportott, however may continge to abor addi tional gains Food and gricultural imports may continuo their trend of orpanuon, though a shift will doctor to a rignificant extent in the origin of thero im porta Lainly because of increased Argentine produotion, Intra reglonal Imports will be larger over the nort two yean than in 1952 while tbome originating outabdo the region may be greatly reduced Manufacturing and other non-farm industries will continuo to expand. povibly at higher rater than in 1852 Rocorery in the rates of expan don of output may come from the espected fur ther industrul expansion in certain countries such a Venuela, Chilo and metal of the smaller Latin American republica A renewed Accelora tron in the industrial activity of countries such ** Argentina, Brazil, bleuco Colombia, Uruguay and Peru, i. lcoty to occur under tho more farde ablo balance of payments conditions that aro in pro pect Procont industrial apacity in Latla America Llarger than over and espanded importa of capital goods will be mimulated by redacod inter regional import requirements of food. Em ployment and income therefore may continuo to expond. Fspanding industrial produotion will creato an increasing demand for food and otber agricu)- tural producte, but the market may be readily Atisile mthout further prerrure on price u rupply prospects either from domestic production or from fatti regional Importi ure generally good m vow of the expected increures in the region. Agricultus) ontpit You Owtos to rent bangla the mythod of courtroot TAO production Indicator pot pomper able to thom ni Tshete Tom authore Rene On Ondboet i Production Total grain production Inoreseed by 9 percent Over tho prerious year figure of 214 m.]lon ton (Table 24) The greater part of this increase Was in French North Afriar with a total harvot of moro than 88 millon tons about 11 million tope oror the proceding vooron In Algeru the grain orop ww 45 porcont higher and Tunbala produced oror I million tons or clowo to three timos u much u ta 1951/52 In Morooco how over in spito of might InoToL in the tree sown gatpat was 10 percont Lower mainly be aun of a sharp roduction in borlov Wost Afria i crop romalned about tbe me u. In 1851/ 1952 In South Africa outpat of all gralne reached 34 milbon tone in inorous of 20 porront chiefly due to the excellent meiro crop Honorer other cercals opeebally wbeat were robotentially lower due to unfavorable reather conditions in parts of the Union. Fast African production mate und wheat Inetased. Total production of ollsoods and oils erti mated at 22 million tons (in terms of oil) u lightis higher than that of the 1051/02 rapon, wth marked varlations in output of bodhridal crop While produetion of palm beroes renamed unchanged palm oil incround ten perrent Over the prorious sukon Tbe AFRICA 1 During 1952/03 gricultural Prodaction both total and food bored light time of about 3 percent over that of 10182 (Table 3) The Erlader Egypt Anglo- Eptiap Bulan Erltres, Ethiopia and Somaliland 69 ·TABL. 24. LORICULTURAL PRODUCTIOX IN AFRICA Coctod 101-50 Arno 1151 1 actric het drarely affected by unfavorable Feather con ditions Sugar production amounted to 14 mil lion tons 10 percent over last year's Top Sonth Africa with a ell time record harrest of ragur cano recounts for most of tho Increato which attributed to tlmols vinter nun us kell as to 1 more wklosproud 11% of improved varrotia. In Jauntius bonover there wou plight redaction la ontpat and unfaronablo Mpening conditions autod . lower ructure content 21 7004 11 4001 Total Grins mot and sorghin 8 000 6 700 3 800 معلول1 200 8 000 6 000 3 000 8 100 8 100 3 000 Wheat 2 100 9 100 2 100 Togotable Oil cod xl Oib (in terms of ofl) Palm oil Groundnuts Palm komek Ollro 017 Trade and Price 500 OTO 18.0 01 *10 30 730 710 100 0 240) $40 Cotton (guil) Coder Toa Coona Sugar IB 21 22 20 I W0 1 300 1 340 Including my berley outs and te WILS eroollant groundnut TOP of 1931/32 followed this menson by another good harvest of about 2 4 million tons with imul inorauss in Nigeria and a small deram in Pronch Weat Afram. In French North Afria olive oil produo tlon foll by almost one fourth chtefly because of . declino in olive output in Morocco from tho naar rocord lovel of the prorlow your Total production of cotton at 240 000 tons pas about the namo as in 1931/52 expanuon in the Bolgan Congo and French Equatorul Afrian being offmot by decrons cluowhero notably in Uganda whoro the area wown to cotton clochinod by about 10 percent Cocou prodaction roto from 460 000 tons in 1931/62 to 620 000 tons in 102/53 Climatic con ditions in all tho mein producing trou word gen oraly adrantageous and on the Gold Coast the swollen groot dier ta gradually bomg bronght under control On the Ivory Cout the crop some 10 000 tons over but years figure of 18 000 tons Hovoror quality mu lem mtot factory Production of coffee at 290 000 tons ind of ta at 290 000 tons remained tho Am u the year Lefore As regards coffee there was bometer markod change in the relatire position of the different producers of tho region In the Bolglan Congo French Camerouns and Madagascar pra duction increux mutantieth Irat in French Il est Africi output declined ly about 15 percent anul in Kenn en Tunganike prorluotonu The volume of total esports of food and agrioul turl raw materials in 1932 Wu kome 8 percent highor then that of the preceding your and about equal to the postwar record level of 1860 Tho opanalan pw attributable mainly to increured shipments of oilseeria and oils u well u Abert. Erports of grins doclined Importa wore thghtly lowor compared with 1801 but still appreciably above tho 1050 volume with thoso of graine and livestock products being maintained at a relatively high level and thome of sugar mill increasing In genonal export polco doolined further from the high lovely attained in 100/01 The shareest reductions in price in 106.3 wore rocorded for palm oil and palm kernels which were respectively 54 and 73 percent of their 1851 loral with a gradus incrous in tho first quarter of 1853 In the curo of ralm korpola. Cotton and bal polco which in the mecond half of 1931 romaneel oll abort the pro Korean loral fell in 2012 with us! price decreasing to lore than 70 porcent of their 10 monthly avongo and continuing to dearoase daring the Ant quarter of 1013 On the other hand, ocot and coffos prloes though flootusting on the whole maintained their 101 lotel South Afnan wool prices fell to 60 peroont of their 1931 Averago bat moto rulng ugain in the fint quarter of 1033. Prloes of imports while weakening in tho inst hall of 1052 romelno notertbalou rubotantilly above I lovel A. A rosult tho terms of trado in most cases were to varymg otent las ferontble in 109 than in 10.1 Fisheria Total Ash production wereuked slightly orer 101 In French Morocco the mardino atch do clined Lightly and in Angola output has not in 00 ·creased appreciably over the past two yer On the other hand, the pichand fisheries of the Union of South Afria und South llat After continuo ther rapid postmr expansion total output for 1952/53 is estimated at 030,000 tons compared with Porno 500 000 in the pronon Fear The South African output of fresh and chilled products for homo consumption bo slowly incteuing and make stantial murplures of canned pichands and fish meal and oila are becoming arallable for export Erport of frozen and smoked fish to Australia and a few other countries has been facing diffi outles u. result of restrictions in the Amatnlan market food shortages whereas in Southern Rhodea and Portuguese Fut Africa beery rains hero caused floodle and delayed farming operations la rome arcon The arenage grain crop in Torth Africa will be offeet by an orcellent malto crop pocially in South Africa with an atimate 60 percent in Tease in volame and in lorthes Vigene V gorla groundnut prodaction berpected to equal last year's record stop that of Southero Rho. deale may be some 60 percent highet A light Increuro baleo anticipated in French West Africa especially in Senegal. Sogar production may show an InCTELO in Haarltim and in South Africa kod axceptionalh largo cane crops should make it poolblo to resume orerzeu exporta. Lirestock conditions throughout the region uro eicourag ing because of adequato grazing conditions and good matre crop THE NEAR EAST) Forestry Tho falling market in 103 for forest products wut particularly rotere in the region. African (notablr Vigorian) orports of hardwood declined wharplr a tho United Kingdom, the largest singlo customer redared its porcbanen br otot 46 per cont from tho lovel of 1931 Trado la sa wa poftwood abo dropped noticeably In the Union of South Africa because of currency restrictions which affectedl practically all rources of supply and of falling prices and uncortan mar keto total imports of am softwood fell by some 33 percent from their 1031 level. The govern ment is trying to nalo the domestie production of mwnwood of which it is estimated that over 33 million cu. ft of sawlogo vero procened in 1831/12. In French Torth Afria import demand Keem to buto remained more stablo than in other parts of Africa the relathet aller fall in tesporte lu 1052 Eppeun to have been doe chiefly to the continuanco of rather high economic and bulding activities in there countries The Afr can market of wood pulp and palp prodacta aldo showed a marked declino in 1932 Imports of thero products fell comalderably even in tho que of newsprint Current Situation The steady carparton in Vear Eust food and agricultural production over tho past threo veart nu accentouted during 1933/03 Total prodoo tlon reached record lerela and, one per aapat bour, regained and Icteded the prewar ererage by an appredablo margin for tbo first timo rince tbound of the mar Although expansion of production tended to be concentrated in tbe food surplus ratber than the deficit countries the latter were on the whole able to improve or at least mainten their overall supply position because of the continuanco of largo-ecalo importa. Conditions of widespread rotere food raraty which had been recurrent fature of the immediate postuur yeon did not anse Buch ahortages us did dovelop in Tripolitania and Cyrenaica in 1952 were met by emergeno) importe. In the achlorement of the high production loveb in 1852/03 Larorablo Toather condition vero an important factor but the copansion of production 1o refects the effects of long range programs and measures for food and agricultural Improra ment, which baro been in operation in a number of countries of the region during the last few yearı In sotenl fastencer i promising start has been Outlook In Afna um bolo production of food and agricultural na materials may slightly cieeed that of last yeur Weather conditions were on the bole farotable except in French Morth Africa bete drooght opeet cartier bopes for a ricord production of beat and barles Lato netru boterer bare cured the tothom and in average stop boxpected. In East Afrio minh in Kenya and Tangunnike, tbe naim antred too late and la insuficient quantitia to avert Kerious 1 This term is taken to include the countries from Tartes in the Torth to Ethiopla od the Bomnath Lapis in the Month, from Libya 1o the Fut to Afgbar Isten in the Eurt. 61 ·mallo to ororoome the traditionel olntacles to Agricultural dorrlopment by moh mersum the Introduotion of a land reform program in Egypt, improsenmont of tenuro conditions in Iraq And distribution of stato domaine in Syria Trio mg programs baro been specled up and there at prevent . growing influx of teohudcal anil Al ministrative Hills As Atudents from the Year East complote their trining alroad and is tle work of technical Ruistance exports leghan to tako offoot Hovoror on clovelopmunt uthy Itlen in tho Roar East are intonrifind jurities in aralabte investment resources, notalih br. tween the oll proclucing areas and some other countrien of the region, ne boconuing more nurked and the abronco of acoquute funds in the latter may appreolahly hamper their future economic growth. Agricultural Production In 1062/63 tatal fool und agricultural prolec tion in the Near East odoodlal the prevat Ayonge by about one-third (Table 35) Inob of the espiandon 0 attributable to the substantial Adranoes mado In Trrhoy and to a letter oitent in Syria and Ing In the major food deflett countries like Egypt And Lolnion progress mus much slower und production fnlled to retovor its promar por aput lovel Hororit u notable or jaslon both in total and per caput production took place in Iran TABLE 23. — LYDEX NUXEBEHI Ur TOTAL AND PER CANT AURICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE RAR Fan 104R-60 TO 1052/63 13-0 119,1 111M General Economic Conditions 34 H 113 115 1 110 JA 10 i10 128 L24 121 134 13.9 118 1H Total Production Al oominodite Fand als Population Per Cepat Proxlue tion All commodities Food only Vear End onel.Tur 3-4 104 97 97 93 DO 103 101 310 118 12 121 12 100 118 12 Total Produotka All omsocktkat Food only Population Per Caput I'rolne tion All oommodities Food only 118 TIR 120 1 An the post horcan boom recedel further in mrly 1952, the moontive to greater cononio notivity provided by higher export prices which hacl goneratel a strong metal demand for both (komentic and importel goodle, tendel to disappear Reporou ons were most noticeable in countries whose chied ciporta rogotered the greatont price fluctuations much as ootton in Egypt and the Arden anel In othon Hkr Lolo whore sconomy partionlarly reunitive to change in world econom lo conditions Daring 1902 vertral other coun trico o perlon-coil trade dofichth which had to be financed from the high erport earnings of the precerling year and from foreign michange recl75 On the other hand oil producing areas with the cxooptiou of Iran, continued through 1852 to Add to their holdinyo of foreign exchange Within the lour East tho prossures on prioon stemming from international trends were largely oftwet by the favorable development in the fool rapply position of most commtries in the region Price fluctuations were a Ithin a relatituly surrow range and with fow cicoptions, the over all pteturo of cost of living mbiements remained one of relativo stability for the region in a sbobe At the end of 1932 and early in 1853 cost-of living mulcrys woro gevralls at or slightly below the lerel of 1031 tbe num cxceptions being the Anglo- Egyptian Budan, and Israel where the chief problem continued to be the almorption of mart Immigration and the dovelopment of industrien anal orport to coalise the country to per it on 123 97 98 101 101 100 101 IOS 105 100 Owts to rotabene tethod * Otrath the 110 protectia mloot. data del oothpamble to thon rabudla TV new and Arieten! Rrok Orthet 17 (rain output roue to 99.3 million tons an in orease of almost ono-fourth over average produo tlod in the year 1848-00 und 27 million tonus lugher than in 1981 (Tablo 20) Ihout art berteg Rounted for 8 to 10 percent of thla ia cresso with Turkey Syria and Ing abowing the largont sains Among the grain deficit countne Inn unel Lunel were the only one to whow apprechable progrew output remaining at or below the Arorage postuar love in Lebanon and Egypt In the latter country prolution of wheat de ·olineal in spite of price mbaidies and minimum acte age allocation, Owing to the insufficient for of the Vile for the recorul year in Met Von ontrut of rke failed to recover Despite the fall in world market price in the accumulation of sitenbte Atocks in some of the major producing countries of the lear Eart production of cotton continued to crpand during 1052 Owing to exceptionally favorable weather copulition, Fett Budap and Turkey bamsted trord TOT In the countries bonoter er ranton in area an checked in thor of the un certaints of future market prorpects In other countrien production remained unchangol, acont in Srrie and Inq here . decline started. Food and Agricultural Trade Thors was littlo chango during 1852 in the volume of total dear Eust trulo (imports plus aporta) in food anul agricultural commoditich the rmo in osports being offset by a nomowhat amaller Tolumo of importo let erporto though mub #antially higher than in the immexUnto postuar yearh, romained rell below tho prouat etorago & notable shift occurred in tho composition of the region, exportfollowing the crpansion in grain output (Talte 27) Barley riporta were higher than in prorious yours heat importa into the grain deficit countries showed only a moderato decreto from 17 million tons in 1931 to 14 million tons in 1952. Esports from thosur plus countries reached rome momo tons com- Pred with negligible quntitles in the prortous As a result tho Lear Eart was roterting to its proper poultion as a not grain osportor and, whilo the shift was not yot completed during 1032 mainly because of the tual disappearanco of rico exports from Egypt the balance of tmxhipped rapplies from Turkey together with such marplus ou will sinerge from the current harvont will Largely mico to trundform the region into a nub- Mtantial grain orporter during 1953 veur - ATOULTULAL PRODUCTION TY TRE \PAR EAT CoroDITT 1111 1154 1931 1051 Then werke home 2 00024 40020 500000 son 10010 600 12 100 13 700 4 600 8100 8 500 400 1 300 1 200 1 600 200 1 300 2 ond I ROO i en Total grid Whout Barry Hatte Rier Puct. Bugar Citrus fruits Vegetable oil role and oub (in term of oil) Cotton (gihned) Tob 000 TALA?" - ET TRADE OF \L EAST EX PATYOI PAL FOOD AND AORTOULTURAL PRODUCTE 1 1 200 1 100 1 200 1 200 COD 420 170 60 890 Dze DSD CocoDTT 1910 1180 1031 1151 180 510 000 890 VO 110 TAHN nerke hy 123 fog 10 120 Total grams 4701 "Ixhoh To osta tu and more What Berlos Velo Rico 1 010 090 1 740 OBO - 420 650 - 400 - 610 170 1801 - 120 - 1 0 - 0 4901 30 380 Bugar Pegotablo olleoede ind ole (in torms of oil) Citrus fruits Cotton Tobacco 231 - 100 - 200 100 - 20 100) 070 40-45 GB 40 - o0 - 60 Data reer to pet fanports unlem precocely plannin derimoting wat experts, Premtoest pelading Tata, bet, und vorpha Among other crop, output of citrus fruits to 1cco and potatoes increased and there a . rintable expun lon in production of ollreeds and oll duo to good barszots of chamo in 8th and tbe Budan and a nathfactory olime crop in Turkey Output of muger *as romerhat lower than in 18.31 that of pulty remained unchanged. Out jut of Innstock products meat milk and wool continued to expand slowly at . romerhat more rapid rate than in pretious years Fuh landings are believed to have remained at the same level ax in 1931 In Turkey u well as in reveral other countrier attention is bems gren to the mecbe nization of Ahing craft and Letter utilization and marketme of the atch. Pond ish culture in Lorse) and freh water fiberle in Inq are being developed Tho slackening of foreign demand for raw ma terials kept cotton shipments at tho level of the preceding your almost one-fourth below the peak of 1930 let erporta of tobacco declined and those of citrus fruit while showing a marhol improve ment over praston, Kuns continue to full abort of the prerar lovel. 63 ·of last year Consumption With the improcoment in production and con tinuance of multantial importa into the food de ficit countriem there was an appreciable increase in the total and per caput fool supply within the region. Howerer improredient in average consumption lortla kas month of quantitative muture without any appreciable change in the com pxwltion of the Hot which continues inadequate osor large parts of the region Prices The rise in import prices and the clecrase in ciport prioen reulted in a major part of the re kion experiencing in various cheyteen unfarorable terms of trade during 1052 as oompared with 1851 Egypt was most affected clespite the governmxnita cfforth to continuo to hold its cotton psport prices aboo the international lovob Prren of cotton <lropped by about 81 percent between slag 1952 and Jay 1033 In Turkoy the crport prices of wheat were reducel from LBS 110 fob per ton to 300 n order to long thedi cloer to inter national levels This Atill alott the no International Theat Agreement munnum The index of general bolesale price fu 1952 WALK INTT than in 1001 in BTTHA Lelanon und Egypt lrg 12 perectit perrent and 3 pxTeenit respectively anul continued to we off in the first quarter od 1803 In Turkey and Iran price were maintained relatively unchanged In Ing and the Anglo-karttuan Sudan there was a modonte increase of 3 and 11 jtcent rexpertise weten in Imelmubjected to harp inflationarı promote the indos rome hs 71 percent over its 10:51 lotel and continued to increase into the first quarter 10.3.3 However food price in all countriem were above the 1051 levels ranging from 8 per cent in Lebanon to on percent in Israel try are for the new grain herrosta to e model three The mains came too lato hororor to mato grain crops on some 30 000 betart of the Teger In Lord and southorn Jonlan in Loburi floods hare cus considerable clamage in the what yron ing distrlots of the Hehu and Ankar In other parts of tho regrin, precipitation in the form of nin or ADOT Vas natisfactory In Tur key because of further erranaton in arce was gran, last yeurs reconl crop marle erceelal In Egypt it is believed that government offort to stimulato grain output will be blocerful thh year the wheat harvest Doing officially eatimatel at 1.5 million ton compared mth 11 million tons in 10.72 In Iran anal Afghaniatan the outlook for the new harvest ly roportal to Tx favonble As roghnis cotton with tho reception of coun tren Ilke Afghanktan Etharpla anul Iran, whort output continues to expand to dicet increa ing comestio requirenxenth production in the main areas of the lar Fast de likely to fall off corakler Ably during the preront season In Egypt the ared under ootton has been restrictel to 30 perccat of the oultinatod land u part of the program to increase food production and beculum of reduceel workl prices and acrorums to unoficial estimates proclaotlon mur be one third lower than in 1952 In Arria wbore during the past two wa on cotton growers bad dincouraging riporbenicer As a renult of Inreot Infestation falling workl przecs and rel atirely high taxation, the area currently under cotton Lentimatod to romain Tral betere the nuarimnm sorengo set lry the Cotton Bureau А kimilar trend i orpeotel in other countrip notabls In Iraq where already in 1932 the crop mas loay than one-half of the year beforr Oring to ulequato runfall durmg the fint qurtor of tho rear ringe ini pastir conditions were matlofactors throughout most of the regiou and prospeots for increased output of livestook products are feron ble In Syria borover lentooh expansion mullera voyeto setback due to a serious outbreak of foot and mouth diraino hiah 19 also affecting adjoining area, m Iraq and Turkey THE FAR EAST 1 Outlook Ixlications are that the upward trend in lar East food and Agricultural production will le maintained during 1933 84 The bonut rituetoji has been extrenrols KTIOU.. bowotor during the winter and spring annel w last year bargo-cal International action was noituary to protrat aper of ours from unfented are in lorth West Anbu and adje ent comtrien During the carlr part of the groom mg evin. there woro fears of drought m Jordan Strea un I rnel Abm dant nala, doring tbe spring f 1963 axed the ituation thr mitbern part of Jordan and in Sutla, and premt ripertations in the latter coun Production The For Past regron produced moro food in 1892 then in any pontmar Tour The light but * Unlos otherwise specifilod, deuion of the Fur Part regional dtution more the mainland or China. 01 ·TIBLR 28 - Tybex UDERS or OLUM or TOTAL AND PVR Carut LRICTLTURAL AND POOD PRODI (TIOT IX TE, FAR PART 1148/49 TO 1053483 1110/10 1010/11 1239133 ITIN 90 84 Og 89 91 05 07 8 08 M 07 100 09 13 00 07 00 05 FAR EAST 18cling Clien ! Total produotlon Food compolition Gran cols Son food conosodities Pomilation Per corrut pendaction Food Ootmodities Grains only Ton food commoditres 112 13 114 115 116 80 80 83 85 BB 73 84 8.0 84 85 85 86 8.9 84 B3 07 09 101 100 87 101 100 97 108 103 103 100 102 FAR EAST reluding Ohne JERU! Total produotion Food commoditin. Grupo only Som food toodete Population Por caput production Food commodition Grains only Vor food commodities 118 100 288 2888 12 81 89 83 BA BA 73 89 81 81 82 81 73 80 84 three ya Owls to roont here to the Debod of otrotto FAO protothon 1 The Late an ont comunitet rhed i Ti e Fond om door Rrrir 10 let 11 carounglug progrens bey boon the result of fa yurable weather combined with the gradul ei pension of area undertaken u part of goroni montal rehabilitatiou and grow more food pro Arucae. The record nice crop harrested lato in the your provided rollof from the porestent short agree of tho last few muns nul with the excep tion of wheat and done puke all other food trop regtatered increuses AR « result the regional foon nummly altuation le above the portuar pool of 10-100 and thore la len dopendence on importa from outside the region than during the protioter Four (Tablo 90) Import requirements are stil high however un result of the wlicat crop falloro in Pakistan Ion fool prorluction has declined allghtls from last year in the wake of Konerally decreuing nan materiale portress Total proxluction to portionalls atimated to have increured two to three percent above jouw but population he meantime Increwed 24 percent (Tablo 28) Frar production my far from ade quate to clothe and feed the popolation according to minimom standards and pet caput prolaction row 18 to 20 retrent hela por and only half the world arengt If tho mainland of China w luoludel total por duotion for tho roglon is still Hghtly lower than promur but because of the slower populatlon growth in China por capat prolaction appears a little higher Per caput srailability of corents produce in the region has been reduced nearly 20 percent compared with promar and total por caput mupple including importa br about 10 porcent Although those alloren oes may lo oxaggeratel by un loronti mation in official statutics collected during tho postnur grain shortayo the regional defioit ia at of worlour proportions Ta somo of tho cereals clafloit countries output of other bare food crope mus Incround! For oumple per caput production of roots and tuber has incitame substantially in the Philippinen anul Japan. Sugar production continues to Incroane but only in exporting countries in the per aput consumption higher than proper and stil rlsing du lo the cure of cereals the region has changed from being • net erportor to . net importer of sugar Total obced production continuem the trend of increase alore prekur bont mupplies Avni able for domestic Mousumption hart int kept ·TABLJ 20 CROP PRODUCTION IN THE FAR EAT (acouding Hainland China) Con copy 1031-30 ITULO 1H417 11111 Tert 115111 1153 A3 brortaloout 1001/50 chuir trom ips Rioo (mile oqulyelort of paddy). Whout Other greina TOTAL 60 478 1 Its 10 006 Temetrio ho 25 614 of to 11 197 34 084 14 117 10 77 34 357 + +1+ 13 7 103 01 100 83 100 30 104 000 3 X 600 800 M 610 10 131 10 B04 0 001 4 441 8 651 25 893 OHC 4 040 0 847 6 8 2 3 833 Potatoes and 100t drop Pultos Obseeds (oll content) Sugar (nav oqunalent) To Tobeooo Cottom Juto Rubbor 1+1 1 1 +++ 704 11 1 873 089 9 000 1 000 040 1 816 016 791 1 20 1 673 SOC 080 1 000 pacowth popaletion growth. No markod chen ger uro apparent to livestock production. Fbh in the most important source of protein in many Far Eustom countries The agregato outpat in the region amounts annually to botween 8.0 und 08 million tone about 30 to 40 percent of tho world, total. It to stimated that marino outches focreu od rapidly during tho first four poetrar youn whilo rohabilitation wu undornar In all countries rocont production Lo cotimated to bo about equal to annul provar outpat orcopt in Alalay whore large-scalo mechanization to bollored to havo brought the ontol above pre- War and in Kora where hostilities havo rolacou production by two-thinda. In Japan, the world. Lergout ish produce the 1052 autoh was over 4.0 mlhon tone, or 23 porvenit higher than bn the proriou your Pond Duhories an important porrco of food in wot rico erau are abo koon77 to bero boon aspanding. The forouts of Japan, the largest producer and oonrumor of foroat pirodacta in this region havo boon heavily over-cut during tho post your no ceultating mourures to retrict tho volume of follngre during 1062 The outpot of rawnwool in Japan www about 12 1 million cum in 10152 FIGURE 9 - CEREAL SUPPLIES IN THE FAR EAST ( 1-1) A Toto ISO Production ond Supplies in the Region 8 Por Caput Chrool Supplies -30 CE-EXPORTNO COUNTNO 120 H20 TOTAL CEREAL JUTPLUS 110- Hio 100- -100 90 TOTAL CUAL MODUCTION OTHER COUNTALES 10 10 70 +70 Prewar 148 149 1950 1951 1952 Prowar 1546 1951 19.2 Yaa Sepptes qu Ton purettua pot aportar plum faportt. Cilt ist Het (uted equirunt) but, Thurley ti, pähe, et ny torpo Total citu production troy r 1HT/43 1951/52 Kre-cporttos moto buon, Gumbode. Feath Korn, turu, Thuhud That fun Other catre Carton, Iodon, Jus, UT. Padstar the toptant, ·** wainst mnie 12.6 million cu m. in 1231 netin of Xxl praln an the other hanel continual to DTC Un moult of a writch in the use of arallahle ray material from the 11 reconil of 7210) tons, it reachel 110 ) tom in 1957 And is still ruing Tho Jaruies production of niet in warkolle in 1079 eu in con tront with the trend in other parts of the work! the praction and Alen of all categories of pepet wyl board alan more All countries in the region dlopend almost entirel 011 imported forest prod UMM mapecially for the man and its proxl ucta, lrut there is hope for dorobopment of Ilmited roft cod renoarca on the Chinese main land India and Pakistan Trade Inu xnte us Hee auhatitur the demand for » heat and Agrins among trulltional con rumors in India, Pakistan Japan and Korea will keep the regions requiroments of wheat and warm gtnins et elrout 76 million tons the amount imported in 1832 The exterrul trade in this region in fresh chil lei or frozen Ash pruulucty has remaineri Atable at 1200 tons The Coylon imports of cureri flah from India and the ultras increased be txeon 1040 and 1032 to 5 percent overpretar levels The cure flsh trade from Thailand anil Cambolin through Jindar to Indoneals amounted In 1052 to 43,100 ton compared with L, ni tons in 103:8. Canned fish importe Into the region hare Incrtanod rapidly during the postmar TERIT The major change durou 1032 In the regional trule pattern of anned fish i tho re-entry of JAJANS . pource of surples of canned onines. Tho chlof change in the replonal trade fair forest products max the recovert of Japanprowar ex ports of php and paper prxducts to other man trten in the reglon Chrow export. of yrirultural prowlucts including forestry and flamherzen imolacto which action ted for her half of the total salire of trade in 1931 are a primary source of foreign exchange aming anwl goreramont teren in the region As Tuhle 31 Iralicate term of trade hare Legun to bo lncronaingts unlarornble ainet the volume Amal prices of roan crport eroga are dechuaink while imports of foodstuffs are continuing athlech Jorel and import recria for development inorensing Total grou esports and importa for the region Foto about oqual in 1031 but in 1932 erportnfell to US $7,310 million while importu were mtendy at UA 49,8-10 million As a result mmt of the or The region has changed since the ar from a shet oxporter of cereals to large-scalo not im wortor principals of whont and other verander The rolame of raw materiale ciports from the region after an unprecedented Home i non falling (Tablo 30) In 1933 it is espected that there for cereal from outskle the regime will be women hat leme than the 83 million ton importer 1132 be ce of poort burrests in the deficit muntries und because the chief oxporters within the rewn may barn larger suppliem atallable Including *upplies from China niee arallahile for report in the region could incrdere from 3 million tons in 1052 to 37 million is 163 quantity frentet ther the Indicateri demand. Although the gooul nice barrests within the region will reduce some of the need for tho ceroal, which have been TANLEY Yet Tom er l'RITO IL Error AfD Ixor Com ODTIA Or malam REMIO (including Chine Vand 1935 CODEODITT > 13* 1151 11:41 proronel Holo 0.3 It sporta Ollereeds and oth (oil erun) Tea Juto Rohbet 1) 10 1.20 g888 5* 61 62 13 141 Vrt Import 4 40 077 Cotton 25 14 40 #y) 41 Yet parte di De tog ·TABL. 81 – Lyda Noor TER OF TRAD, BELGTID Far ETICK COUNTS Cound 1078 101 1051 PO- Barm 157 141 151 101 Coylon Indt. 101 Prices of a commodlitio declined in India continuing the rollef from the inflationary promuro which has been inhibiting public invoetment on dor tho five your plan. Execution of the inrortmont program hue boon gaining momentum in the first two years of the plan, but oatley has not yot reached its poek. Manufacturing activity increased in tho two most industrialbod countries in 10.52 India enjoyed . 7 porcont InoTone Lotwcon December 1901 and 1952 consumer goods Industrian contributing most to the rise la Japan manutacturing activity bed roochod a postwar pork early in 1003 stimulated in part by the reo in agricultural in COTTO. Tortlo production is still considerably bolow pronar lovels and thoro huu boot a general movomont toward production humed on local raw metorial.. 120 170 140 Malaya Philippines 84 Kod: Rath ot utt aludar ot aporta to unft nie Ir af la porta. Xoll available SOCRO Vattad Matloos Togaombo Commt don treh Lad th. Yu E. Country Reoleu port lorton Impowod of ruled during the post Korean boom had to be loworod or withdrawn and many countries bed roooww tn 1853 to import Todtnctions OTD of which, hor over have been cunod subooquently some of the most preening foreign tndo di ouitte have found wolution in intr reglonel trado ngroomonts. The offoot of changed trade torms on tho fotomational balance of payments bas aboo boon mitigated by continuing codorato ald from international organization and from the United Stata. Such aid falls for short of total Dood for capital importo but makes pouslblo in dividual projeots which will significantly crperd prodaotlon in Individual countries for oxamplo the Demodur vuloy dovelopment in India and tho Chao Phyu Irrigation project in Thaland. over Prica and Dernand Agricultural conditions in individual countrien, groupod nooording to typo of agrioultural economy And nimmertrod below Rics Swrplw Covatnos In 1033 orport anal abilities from tho surplus rico producing coun tres might reach nearlr 37 million tan, tooord for the postwar period. An estimatel 14 million tons may be evallable from Barma where roolamation programs the last for your havo halpod to ortand to 80 percent of provar Produotion in Thailand u olightly low fn 1952 but with tho addition of stock ciporta may oxoood tho provlour mon rons 1.3 million tons. A good crop In Vlot Nam, whoro Internal trdo Is Hill rootrloter may being 1803 arports up to an estimated 300 m ton. whloh representa oo third of prowar availabilitSex Other suppliers include Chine which exported 100 000 tons in 1001 und 200 000 tans In 10-12 Barma and Thailand oontinuo to sell two-thirds of thotr arports under government to govern mont contrrot and Barma hu nimel the piloo by E B per ton this roumon Official priou are at Il well below those bld at opon touders. Row lokals Exporting Countnus Defiant or 8d4-nficiat * Pood Two mooolve your of motor sbortego havo turnod Pakistan from a not arporter of wheat into a mot Importor on a large malo During the 103203 oroals shortago . United States loan for purobanos abroad and a number of bertor doabe helped to manball rapplies. During 1003/04 the Unitod (Btata Canada and Australia 11 donato rubatential Price of export commoditie acept Heo bere moved frcoly bat during the period of market docline minimum pouco meto not for oottom, jute and Omo othors. The malo objective of domestis prlet polloy on the other hand, bus beon to gabalize the cost of Hving through mhaidizing prices of cerous to consumer and controlling price pell to domestio producon. Coylon, Indla Japan and Lalaya bero food absidies to offset the high prico of imported grain Because of the improromont In suppllas yutom for delivery of paddy at fized prices are now in force for parts of India and Japan only The fixed prices for delivery to mille sot u coling price to producen la Burma and Theland 08 ·There nu a slight declino foi cotton production on about tho Amo aron and an increano in fute proelnetinn. Few of tho major agricultural projecta in the firo year plan haro been scheinked to yoakl remaltbefore ILU A final rerler of the plap in 1932 resulted in a revion of dorelopment pro. game for agriculture to inclado nor schemes like communitr development projects and reorien tatron of the mor more food ampign. quantities of cereals to Blitate the shortage It has been planned to reduce jato prodactlon In 10 percent to 4.2 million beled in 1913 in vlon of the lange ture from prostous rerupons. Sleanwhile ma are being taken to encourge trade through trade agreements Incloding three year pact wth India and abolition of the export licending fee Cotton production increase in 10323 although there had been difficulty in proving of the precious veurs morplur. The increuingly unfarunable terra of trade for ny materiale exporten has been mpeeballs motore for Ceylon and Malayz shich depenu! hearth on exports of tea rubber and regetable oils and most import approrimateks half of their food requirements. The rerenine from EuroTM which provide the volk of gorernment recepts fell in 2.5 percent in Corlon and 35 percent in Bulaya botteen 1951 and 1803 Ceylon har entered into . Are year trade agreement with China for the orchange of rice for rubber In Indopeale the output of rice and other food! CTOPU continued to expand well beyond the prowar bral, but copri production dropped mall hoket a rubber production f&D and magar production made no progres In 10.52. Aslaloo the axe in Burme Scalaya and Viet lam, miltars and wearlte med auren o reduce funds and petronnel which might other tre he anallable for agrieultural espanion The Philippines does not not need to import rice. Abaet and copn farmers are reported to haro found food crop production more lactatire to 1852. Typhoon damage aloo contributed to the declino in coprt production Sugar output on the other hand continued to increase Food and Raw Materal Importing and Export IM Cortne In Japan controls on all cereals oxcept Hee were removed in June 14.52 Current nice chest and herles crops are excellent arx! Import need will be slighthe lem than the on million tone imported in 1014 Japunt is faced with increuing diBculties to paving for hoth foord and raw materiale importe A bombet ree crop rezulttag in reduction of import requirements for cereak bs over one million tons mu the most important economie development In India between IAJIL and 10526 Tbo 10 percent greater slee barn mu not mateted by other las boteret beat barley and palmes al decreured lightly Super output which had increased in JDT tn tbe print There an exportanto sarplan van inilable he deelned and further erpreta art frohfbited Outlook The year 1933 starts the third year of tho Indon Bre peer plan for cconomic development an -lght rear plan for Burp and a record us year plan for Ceylon. Japan is not considering a ten ar program which woukl make het almont welf-sufficrent in foodstuffs and us A tetult of recent crop failaret Pakistan is giring agricul tore a high poority insong Ito dovelopment pro games The next crop maron mar show the results of the implementation of modo upects of these plans end of other counter program for espanding area and yleli. Among the important aspects of agricultural dovelopment in the region la tho peed to reduce dependenco on uncertain monsoon rafma rerponsible for the wldo your to rear varlation in welde Cerion Thanand Jhalaya Japan all hero largt hale water control programs under mas During the 1833/54 wheat scaton Pakatan bs accelerating 4 program for installation of tabene. to frre part of the area from reliance on anal irrigation Among the economic neatures aimed at cepand Int, food production in tho coming neuron are the metrued fundo available for short term loan. m * number of countries and the higher guaranteed producer prices being offered in rome deficit countrict. Projerts to direnulir production such as the cipantom of secondary cereals in Coylon ero still on a small sale or crperimental as in the estee of cocoa dovelopment to rubber producing astus In alatt. The decline in the market for traditional esports mar AOK fire additional impetos to such perret. The full la the prices of some of the bon food commoditiet which hero been competing for land or Labor with foodetop may also encourage Ciril disorder continue to restrict the morement of cereali in bocal urou of a num ber of countries. The drop in the Talue of exporta of tax mate stale between 1851 und 1032 may lie atrented in the coming year If demand continde to IDJTOTO food output OD ·סתם bat foroiga ozchango difoultles will remain for many ponntries Tho roductbon in government rotonden from trado tooeipts have had to be offrot in 1933/84 by inoreuses in import duties in income taro. and intomal orcija Although the cereals mupph posution for the rogion has improved tho cont of importel rypplica will doclino little onco much of the rice is pur chared on gorernment to government contract at prices fixed at higher lorols this season anul wheat imports wider tho Latemattona] Agrer ment may be moro o popustio Tho offoct of higher minimum whent prices may be offsot in some countries honorer ho un increas m the se of the quota The furthor Improvement in mupph possible next vouon should bring most of tho countries in the reglop narer to their goals of self-suficiener and burger osport mappuc but according to government plans et loost five to ton your of Intensivo improvament programs and nocoran beforo production may bo equal to the minimum fool requiromenta a tra le deficit of CA379 million to mir of £A388 milhon Despite the whart, reduction in importa, il tion sloped into mygt ratey brame Atcruller an in Australia unemployment doctowaing after earlier rapeil growth. riter in Australi. Na less than 0 pon during 1002/03 and the cont of living rore al 3 poroent betwon June 1852 anxl aroh 1 Important olemento in restricting inflation the honty stocks in hud, multicent to I comand wlule import rerinctions trore in fa and the actiro step taken to control der ux much moans 14 limiting Loany higher inte rates and outting inmigration Agriculture shared in and contreated to goneral imprortirent of econoduo conditions the agricoltural industry on the whole nje A greater degree of prosperity than in the pror vour Agricultural Production OCEANIAL Current Situation built nr Economic conditions in Ocennis improral throughout tho year 17th Ovenes trading conditions more farurable import restrictions which had loen imponad curls In 1032 woro pro grewirelr rolered and foreign currency belancas From January to July 1812 goki anel foreign currency reberit fell steadily but by February 1953 they had rocosored to the lovel of January 18:58 In Mom Zorland the dooline and recovery mero momowhat lator anil lens pronounce than in Anstalle Groator agricultural production and vustunal ororreas domund, with higher prices than in 1801/ 1052 particularly for TOOL cunod an increno in the talne and volume of wricultural oxporti Fren so the recovery in the balance of trulo was mainly due to ourtailing Imports In Austin fle, the taluo of total exports was nearly 30 per cent higher in 1932/63 than in 1851/52, whores import lite fell by osor 80 percent, on rortiny The volume of production of the two count in 1852/03 Tus about 10 percent above the i ceding your but production per caput till ixot reach the provar level for either fool ugrulural production with food product Lagging the most The major provlnotion increases were in Aus len wheat (20 percent) MILL (14 percent), m (13 porcent) and wool (11 poroent) and lo Zalınd mill (6 percent) The greater part this increum renulted from improveri yukle both countries In Austria heat and a ontput pont op despite declno fue acre and cattle numbers and tho higher wool w due to haror floccer. In low Zealand riso in nulla viell and production contmı although arly estimates show fall in da ottlo number In Abstrabe output Au coutklorably ab tho #brotnu Ily low lovels of 1951/52, whiah curd by dry condition loa namber of u and . drooght In Northrit Intralla. Incro Occurred in nearly ordry Dhajor branch of or colture Total agricultural production recovo to surpass the lerol of 1950/81 and condora progress wa made toward fnlalling the & ernment plan for agriculture wheat rooli berlor wete above the lesel met for 1957/09 ml pot far oft In lot Zealand, although over all output treased prolactan of beef vel and lam, The ton rofon only to Australia and Now Zed LAHL The table include the products of other arru in the region, mainly car from Fill (about 10 thouudd tons) and opna trom . number of tentorien og Now Going FiJL Rew Hobrklos (unch Idoel omall ardoants totaling about 200 thou and too) 10

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·Fisheries lo rignificant or large-roelo change in the flabory production in Australia and low Zealand ham taken placr Tho Fitnlian output in 1051/82 of cannert products has remained at the mimo loral u in 1069/51 The annorien aro dlo. veloping now markets in Eantorn Africa and the Unital hingdom Tho stendy increano in esporty of fresh and frozen spinr Jobstor tails to the Unſtod 8taton, together with a rico in price, multod in . 4. porcent Inoren in 1851/A2 in dollar om ings from this commodity Rising costs and naar otv of Lat are affeoting the spiar lobster fib erle of Wentom Australia, which acount for onet throo-quarter of the exporta Although Australia 19 principally a fish import ing oountry tho trado caldo of 1952 necesitated restrictions on the imports of this commodity Finkory resourOCR nro not largo how over and there was no significant inorento in domentic supplies Forestry Tho large volume of proluotron and imports during 1051 and the high carryo vor into 1932 renultod in adequate mupplier for the first timo winco tho ar In Australu In 1832, although Irullding and price controls were relaxed, demand for hawnwood dkl not pick up and stocks remainel high. Output anul imports showed. dolino with the orcoption of railway bleoport, output of wuch narkol the first postrar rho In low Zonland, production of namorooul contuual to expand, but the cloclinby nurkot in Australia and contracting local (lemand resultel in a heavy murplus. For wood pulp and pulp prodnots tho lendlosmont womewhat diferent Preliminary enti match box that in 1852 output imports and con option fnotensed in both countries compare with 19.51 & fignificant trend is that pulp and papor madiutries are expanding napidis and dur ing 1053 there is opeotol to Lo & connderablo no in regionally produced too pulp to meet the growing noode of the region • pepor industries and corrumption give proming of rains the fortility and takto area of yrkcutural land As oumplos nay ho mentioned the application of toco element to hitherto riproluotiie land in Australla, unul the sorial aproading of fertilizers (77L other Loco alble unimpul pastores in Tm Zealarol In Australls, alt bongh there is anxiety about not urally dovetopel Immunity the myxonntaste omraigri arainst nbbits continuem and its 40002 IM reflected in the Inorowing trend of Fool produotion which rohel Anxutm record in 1852/53 Growing mechaniuation will probably sufile to punteruot Labor mhortagewhere they cour the number of trnotor01 farmy rogo In 18 percent Let woon 1031 and 1952 being 3), times the promar figure Apart portup from a range of commodition such in piping and galvanbed iron, the supply of agrioultunal requi miten nox appears to be mati factory with two growing alty of local industries to moot local requirements, and the relaxation of import rowtriotions Both govorimonta ero oommittol to expanding agriculture tho experimer of 1902 having shonn the neoos ity for * proper balance between pri mary and sooonclery Industrien Farmer on the wholo onjoy fatdialto treatment for taxation en oredit and producers roturns nro to a larse extent protectel by govorimont controlleal price sobemes but incontoh, pecially from 400) ure vulnerable to the offroth of a change in overseas domenil The United Kingrlom market in the main outlet for agrioultural production and is Whely to la able to absorb tho inorennol export which Mav bocomo availabto Blont and dairy products aro mostly covered by long term contracts though there has bet ne ovidence of rontotence to prior increanos suficient to cover producers ont For wheat the price outlook is onorrtain WCHOC of the refusal of the United Kingdom to enter the new International Whout Agrormont And tho ortsteroo of abundant workl mipplier in the autumn of 1933 Eron Ho the Australian wow wheat acrengo roxo about 18 porcent in 1803 . compared with 1932. In orilor that mpplies will bo entable for all in the traditional United Kingdom mertet Australle proposes to request 1 redootion in her quots in the new Agrement Actistty in the tortile Industries and online ynents the world demand for wool appears to ho continuing ut i moclonatoly high level The internal demand for tarm prolueth kn Tesult of economio espansion and population Outlook The rising tread of ngrioultural produotion lur mig 196/03 may be orpooted to continue in 103:3 IN A number of toahnical innontions of rororit ytaru, now well cotablnhed od widely practbol, 73 ·inereas neem likely to continuo high and Hilny Mpecialls in Anstralia The question of production conta in Auntmalin and lew Zealanuel appears to be clominant in a kong term Hex The phyakal picans are adequato for greatly increased jmaluction, laat it i ilkelr that in the future crportmill be sharpls affected by prices a kel. The very rapid portrar de velopment of both Australia and \ex Terlal has been partially responsible for a wtrong under lying tendency to inflation In du tnln at ans rate this has reulted in rising price level in Lintli Agriculture and industry and recenth there hast heen numerous warning that factualian prkes are out of Ulm with work price. What cand an innstries are concernal, this is of considen ble importance but for agriculture mainly doxndmit on raport markets, it rltal that pricem shonkl le competitive Growing concern has recenths been expel allout the posible effect of compotition from Suhatitute for pool and batter particularls it reems to be the case the United Kingulom faror gratlual reduction in tho scope of bulk buring and long term contract. Theo dovelopmenta gire raming that polce compotition is likely to become Again an important element in dotermining the production rettem of agricnltture in thk region. 1

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·Chapter IV
REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
BY COMMODITIES

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·Chapter IV - REVIEW AND OUTLOOK BY COMMODITIES IVHEAT Current Situation Torld wheat womplies reached tery high lorois during 1939/03 The concidence of good har resta in kotoral countrich resulted in unusually high morkl produotion Crops mere particolarly Largo in the major exporting countrien nadian crop was a record by a large mangin and that of the United States wu the third highest orer obtained. All greater relativo improro ment occurred in Argentina, whom harroot has nearly four time u largo u tho proceding crop and ou batentially better than tho proru armago Tho Awtrallan crop, despito a reducel aret equalled the postwar storage 1 large borove in omportable supplies of thout remulted from thono lavorable harrots On the other hand, crops in importing countries were also good and their import requirements abrunk In European importing countries where in the pre row three yean the prera ererago production had been recorert, . further increase was oured, Botter food grain oropo in India al permitted a calmg dora of imports Total morkel wheat exports caroquently declined from the record of 20 million tons in 1851/62 to some 3 millon tons in 182/83 Outado the three major esporting countrion supplion were not greatly difforent in the grogate from those of the provfour year Ono wol como dorclopment tru tho orocllont hantat in Tarkof which enabled its exports to be the best anco the war Olivetting features were = fall in Pakistan. production, serious congh to make inporta nocturary and tho apparently reduced lurrate in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe It does not appear that tho mlecellaneous group of osporter suppllocl in all an approclably alf ferent thero of total oxports During the second half of 1952, moreorer Argentina and Australia reflecting earlier unfatorable lurtoets had smal ler exportable supplies Consoquently importera Aguin relied manly on the United Statound Canada, bomo osports in 1032/03, though somo three million tone (15 percent) coalier than in 1001/62, uguin acoonnted for over 78 porocnt of tho total world wheat trado Tho largo harront and the smaller trado result ed in a substantial addition to the supplier ou band on 30 June 10.33. The bulk of tho lacrouse to beated in the United States whiloh orporion.co 1 sharp doclino of 32 porcent in exports Ito carryorer nu somo 8 million tonus Larger quan ulty about oqual to its total oxports In 1952/53 Canada, holdinga haro incrowned by some 40 TAL 19. Oory PECAT PRODUCTIOX 21 LHS 1515 1936 (anada Lauted Hata Argentina Australia 1151 7 17 ID 4 de metric 11:31 10 89 3 SS 8 19 12 67 10 1 31 00 311 894 Total + cuptna Total European countries 18 01 en 5 OI 40 63 2 10 # 34 18 3J IG 7 583 5 00 Woln Tora tere! UXS.R 81 17 30 60 ISO 48 30 The start to action in the Thir ini 36 kor the latted ftatus Maude , Coteatty for the work. ab- Monoatly low of troustu tn ini m 1936. Are prodoties ta the runs 107-1 ben meath of commuter por sorbal, utelborn Cape j. 13 be to, Calte Mare nu lon topu 148 40 W OL 00 01 140 70 14. 70 11 20 10 30 17 ·TABLE 34. VT AND WREAT FLOU. EXTORTI 11145 Jolyo Borong Cound ins 1948/41 1919/ 1030181 115451 1131/01 mon nario en 1 68 0 62 080 Argentina Australie Canada United States 981 40 1 5 07 13 mg 322 3 07 10 8 20 2 82 351 & Da 10 da 0 40 13 00 10 10 8 70 24 72 5) Total 4 countries Other 01 47 1 13 به به 12 38 501 2 09 206 TOTAL 17 40 17 00 eo X 90 1 Product Xotarellable TABLA 1. WAT AND Tabat FLOUR IMORTI, TY CONTINET Jaly ARD OOTTDam 114 As 1pino 20439 1117/5 IMHO# srl 17 10 Furopo Ada Othor oontinenta 11 03 1 00 12 00 X 60 4 13 10 8 00 11 10 7 40 T 10 100 TOTAL 16 90 W 30 70 24 10 28 1 Primary million ton. Vrry umple stoclos of abont B million tons romaine in Argentine oming to its rooont good harvest and the rory slow moromont of whart in the frat di montła of 1943 Sonyo ingrout 1 0ocurred in Australia The total outyovor for the four countres amountod to about 14 million tons, Dourly twice a much tho stocho hold a year earlier and the highest lovel OTOT touched m peacetimo. While this result is to be attributed in lungo momento to tho coincidence of good baruto Walch cannot bo orpected to treat regularly tho year udor rovtex marki . nox phato in the postnur world what atuation While your to your fluctuations in production will be inerttablo the ofloota of the large stock position in all probabil sty will maintain ary supply conditions for como time BIordoor in tho importing countries wome of the increase to production #8 permanent path conting from the recovery and oxrandon offorts of tho postwar yan somo yung in production and orportable supplies are still to bo obtuned among the miscellaneoria osporten Whilo tho port war oyporta of this group buvo mudo vory slow profrets co tho kholo rialng from low than 5 percent in 1017/48 to 10 percent in 1051/3 the generally high level of prious and tho proler on.co of Importott to purchase from boa-dollar poproex may bo exported to provido continoing stimulus for groter production anul esports On the fmporting ado on the other hand, the immotuto outlook tagets pomo further contratar, moro particulerly in the Adan import requirement which in the postwar your generally bas been abnormally high, owing to como poor crop yoark in India and to the abortage of rico Outlook Production proepoets in 18.33/ut potnt to DIXO doolino in United States production from last Four a torol to a borel about the arenge of 2018 1052 The resulting ruplee rould still mitico for domestic requirements and esports at the 1832/83 lorol with no withdrarul from toob very amplo supplies abould bo maintated aloo In 18 ·TADLE H. ESTOUTED TAAT Broco oy 1 JULY Jon ETATINO COUTTA United Mates Cards Arshat Augnis Total rien matre 265 3 8.0 183 12 07 1034 38 8 D3 2 SA 1948 IDID IDEO 10.51 1053 185 11 57 10 78 891 18 21 180 3 09 3 81 6 40 7 13 10 20 1 40 : 72 1 31 003 6 10 3 n 171 1 18 1 + 0 18 93 1 37 21 17 33 33 71 1 Bard orttmator of United State Department of Agriculture and TAO For Armaths and Aastrull. Locks ar la Od rapple and toolude mala for me to cooromption and exports up to the besimtar i thalt de ord om. Prolimtary TAB WorAT PIC 1951/52 AD 1053/03 Period Un tod Btate No 1 Hod Water a b proo Chloro Can No.1 rthom Vunitoba x I Red Wintor 0.1.1 North Ports 1951 1931 2 31 anbull US ter 1951 1952 1951 1984 : 11 DI 0 July October 2 10 2 40 ? 11 6 004 195 18 223 190 1 40 1953 1952 1953 1 18) 110 3 281 February Juno 1 10 1 09. tn ston Fort wuPort Arthur for et talde LW.A. Source: Dw Weldte wahrer Kermpunittel, Bonn. Canada Sowing conditions mero faronblo in Ar Sentine and Australia and there is an expectation of increwed ucrenges. Both there countries an wupply larger esports than in 1852/03 partioular ly Argentina, wbere In addition to the supplies that will accrvo from tho next crop an unusualls large quantity has been carried over Largor par tidpation in weat trado by the UBBR und Eastern Europe may occur Pakistan requirem Largo importy, but Turboy expects another good crop In Europe the outlook for production is not u faronable us a tour ago but tho declino may only bo moderato In India, a good supply outlook and an improvement in the nice attuation should redaco tbo need for imported beat Tbeat prloen during most of 1952/53 obowed only a moderato response to tbo greatly increased rapplies owing to tho strength of the United States support program, but , markod fall occurred in the early summer the lack of stone space Ilmiting the use of loan facilitler by farmer For womo two-thirds of world inde bovoter Forces word determined by the International Whent Agreement and reso generalls equivalent to tho marmum of the price range Prices of non Agreement what generally bored oth change in the United Statos commercial market Ter factory in the pre outlook for 1953) 1854 are the upended IWA price range inrolimg a to in tbo mazmom from 1 80 to $2.03 por baabel the abstention of the United Kingdom from the renewed Agreement, and the reestablish Dent of privato trade in wheat in the United King dom and some other importing countries. Bot polier decreion on the Crated States, together *b the outcome of the 1033 crore, ill be tbe maw price determining influence For 1053/54 the opprt level u again 40 petant of party fur 2D ellgible set offered by farmeo but to line with nor legolation minimum wheat Lorengo allotment for 1934 of a million cores (25 million hoctares) 20 percent less than tho planted area for 1B33 has been fixo Poco pupports vill bo maintained at 90 percept of parlty but marketing quotes will be in efloct restricting ferm whert marketingo [n 1851/53 to the output of the allotted strengo Future United Staten policy with regard to the wheat stocks of tho Commodity Credit Corporation, which bell the bulk of the attor on 30 June nu also hard in Infoence on price COARSE GRAINS Sapplies and Trade in 1952/53 In general, 19263 ro a good year for coure grain production aith increases in output over the pretrou year in all continente except Europe 19 ·TABLA 15. COD GRADY PRODUOTTOX1 Huroox 1911-36 1045 1911 118 1151 IT JNA wrie les 110 : 118 9 IOD 1136 120 1918 16+ North America South Arnorton (Argentina) Yertord Europe Other 20 7 17 3 ( 04) 438 774 132 6 13 3 ( 51) 374 78 6 Ad 137 (48) 101 79 8 70 6 TYORLD TOTAL (col. U AS RX 216 9 2019 2100 143 7 WO 2 201 Loladh i berley to Etter The average protocole in the 13th Norta Ania od, can quy for the work borty tow loc te the death of utru drotab ja II and it Arro prodotton for United data and Clonda la theywin 1911 1941 un poetag OnAid To B LOTDAL wu 11-51 mful on to Larte than INTL Indhing Tooleyla BYOT In the United States owing to . martod increas in maizo produotion total food grain output rono by 7 percent. Total supplies of food har crocedod tho requirements romulting in como addition to your end stocks, in contrast to the two provlotu yorn whan stocla, voro drain on. Produotion in Canada, for the third your in mation wu very largo berley and oats produotion in 1852 more than twice the prowar etorage. Though or parte incrogiod, and of-om yon stock in Canada wero also grontar Tho produotfon foorouso in Argentina to roba Hvely much greater Its maize Crop though oth) Fery modest compared with prowar is orpoot. - to bo about double the provlous harrock and to bo supplomented by good crops of barley oats and ryo. Arorago or better than erorigo burloy orops wuro harreated in other surplus areas inclu ing Australia, Franoh North Africa, Turkey and tbo Near East Bomo roduction In output bow wu oxperienced in the Dunobo countries pertioularly lo Yugoslavia, whero the defcft mado houry importo nocersary In contrast to the proced ing your when substantial oxports woro medo European Courto grain crop in 1982 word some what lou atbuotory compared with tho year aurlior but better than in mogt postwur years Barley crops word generaly good and in momo casos oroollant, but oats procloction was smaller and mutro orope were aprroolebly smaller Iyorld export of cours graine (barley oats malso and sorghums) increased in 1831/62 to thoir bost pontmur lovol and wore within 8 poroont of tho 1831-18 averige This martes opor the provion your we provided mainly by Canada, Tor koy Yugoularia and the U.B.S.R. TAL 39 FOTO COARTE Gu1 JuYJAD COORDY 1901 Hing IDINIS 1940/10 1930n 1151/97 194/33 Le malo to 13 104 1 00 10 1 01 123 1 00 Assentos Canada Vaited Staten Othon 0 07 1 12 0 05 0 31 1 10 400 645 J 832 8& 11 ORLD TOTAL 10 10 11 18 12 84 11 88 14 18 IIud bet, roro udru Pronbury Lot arattabb 80 ·Prict Exporta in 1962/63 apparently did not mark Inrthet urance Shipments from the thrro maint esporters weto alghth larger than fn 1051/62 Argentine s plipronto appear to be at the one bow horel, since little of the increased crop bocarno anilable for export within 10:/43 8pments from other sources mas por a net iletter man because tho V.88.R appears to haro had smaller thanthus for nxport and lagpolarie nu mnable to mako amy shipment Trado ip couro una continand to be much of the same gal charoter in 1052/03 us in the preceding four year For most of the portrar persod, about half or more of the total ciports havo beeti ranplied by the United States and Canada, their charts betog markedly greater both relatirely and abrotately than pomar Argen thou exported much smaber quantities than pro Esports from onto other than these three country laro abort momo guin 10 recent year though the importance of individual eI porten tàn thu “ other proap bas born wide ran atlong from year to fear its compoorion didera qalto markedly from prowar when the Eastern European countries and romo Far Eastorn sup. phort wtro much more prominent In Vorth America, prices of burlog and out sbornis slightly riding tendency in the first months of the 182/03 pour but fell after Vorembct of December aol by Apero back at the lovok of the pooriaus Juno. United States make on the other hand teachd to decline aftor Jlny 1059 Fol boring some recomery in lorembet Rod Decem bet It declined again and by Juno ru 18 percent Lover tune year earlier Coarne gralns from other sources abowed momo pronounced talle Iraq barlos c * 1 London quotations had decloed by Varch 2013 by about obe-third compared with a year earlier Outlook Export cpnsties and import requirobionta in 1833/64 will be greatly influencod by two impor tant elemento In the United States, outbool dence of anticipated opening stocks and of farma to spring planturg intentions, the feed supply Rituation should be better than lo 1032/03, suruming ro untoward crop rosults The wc ond olennent and in this respect tbort is. TAJLE 40. COAL GRACE Prica 1192 DITTI CAT nad Uhut Joly July Notebut) Hero JU Canadian $1 broshel CANADA Barley No. 1 feed, outh Price Wmniper' huts Wettorno.1 ou co Waptr 1 16 1 IK Canaduan 8/ brothe} OM 001 OBS 033 0.7. 070 t 9 bastel I to 1 42 ID 1 40 18 Barley lo.. oh price at Mindre polr Oats So. 1. cub Price et Chaupo Hau la 2 fellow at Chego 1.9 $ butel L. 81 hel 093 0 83 090 ORO 0 78 cth peo 183 183 IM In 165 Therley carlated Ainptom purts Dosunie to 2 150 41 10 0 3600 ISO 3160 77 176 lub ran fort tott Arth 81 ·markod difference from 1952/53 Argentine uport capacity will be signiicantly greator ox Ing to the greatly Impored carpoyer of barley oats and yo from tho rocont good herroots and tbo Improved, if lower than storage maize crop On tho important aldo in the abuenoo of dignuficant price doollnes or largo Inorcato in bron dollar supplies, no subetantul obange in demand from that of recent postwar years to to bo antici pated in Europe For Adla, an improvomont In the coppbeu of food grains may lead to como do ollde in the court grain import requiremont RICE After worlod of great scarcity the rico portion has card, partly as a result of tho adjustments foranoon in last your roplon pertły owing to favorablo reather conditions. International trdo is not aspanding borover u much of the in crono in world production occurred in Hoo dofickt countries. Tbo rico in price which continued during most of 1002 has haltod us for us fros markot tranzactions are concerned, although thero hus been a further rise in tho price of somo govern ment to government contracts. Price will probably botho factor determining the lovel of inter national trade during the coming your most potable fnorcato has boon achiored in India, which had suffered from tho secoulto poor years. Production continued to orpand in the United States and in Southorn Europe rooovorod romewhat in Brazil, but failed to do so in Egypt This bonorer still left per caput total world (szol UB.A.R.) Hloo production at lore than 13 percent of the propar figure. Afort of the better crops did not hororor bocome ayalleble bofore the beginning of 1053 Thus throughout 1032 the demand for rico romained Fery strong and all quantities offorod by oxporters for readily absorbod. Not all the mur plus availablo was, borotor to offcred, womo ex Isorting countrio rotalning stock pomibly with the bopie of obtaining wall higher poders for them. These expectations baro wo far beon dirapport ed. hilo pomo of this nice s bolored to havo suffered from prolonged storago International trade in 1052 was thus limited, and appear to have failed to reach the losal of 181 which was mory los compared to promas though mobatan tially botter than in Immediately previous youn, The threo leading sporters were still Thailand, Burma and the Unftod States. Italy and China (mafnland) wow occupy the fourth and fifth pla Indochtaa wtrich vu the third exporter to prosur dayu and which mu oxposted to apand Ito shipments in 1852 bus unfortunately beon forced to reduce them Bradl. oports Tero barely maintained and thoro from Egypt praotl cally courod. Lattle change bis orpected in 1853 Burma may roplaco Thailand u tho Largout a Current Situation Blont of the Asian rico growing countries report od largor crops m 1802/53 than in prooeding youm tho matn exception boing Thailand. The TALE 41 TYORLD PRODOTTOX or RICC (PADDY) 10331 1146/47 110110 118 (IV) 1031/17 ( red) 1957/51 (re donat) .ro 80 8 309 11 3 Chine1 India Pakatan Japan Therland Barona Other Aps You ter pour 10 3 149 18 7 303 11 8 124 118 11 6 119 12.1 HO 8 08 3B 3 11 6 10 3 21 6 11 NI 8 50 17 8 11 8 70 MO 88 08 Total, Apa 148 1309 141 7 141 2 146 0 Otber continento 6 11 1 11 6 11 0 11 0 WORLD TOTAL (orel UBB R) 161 1 140 3 1030 100 168 100 0 11 prot ud Vaboborte ULO thout Not Area 82 ·TADLE IMIONATIONAL TNADE IN [ILLED RICE 1 1911 Lyrt 1111 1151 (mind) 11,1 (providna) 1994 (tot out) irport Importo sporto laperto esporte Importerport to ports Esporte Laporto JIRes were teren 14 at Ow 01 13 0 13 08 03 02 0! 14 13 OB 0. 03 01 2 14 08 0 1 03 03 Thelund Burma United States Indochina Itals China Japan Indis Stalaga Lodonca Other Asha Other Arte 07 17 19 06 03 00 : 0 0 06 04 05 03 00 08 08 05 00 11 1 1 00 07 05 06 0 09 Io 06 06 Og 17 02 01 0 01 02 07 02 0B TOILU TOTAL 40 49 # 6 +7 1 Postwar runt 2 peperot of the total trade to per avons ret to it trade 1 bed. at the other end of the male of the trado in Broken rice for industry and unlmal feeding, at about $110 for lower grades f.ob Kohachang Outlook porter while China may more up to fourth place having been a net importer up to 1931 Among importon, Japan took tho largert sharo m 1952, with India Mrond anul Indorcola third. Europo continued to reduce its grous Imports In 1053 Japan is expected to maintain her rato ed imports and Korea, e lang orporter up to 1913, to espand here comudorably On the other hand, the presdous import estimates for Indus and Indonesia hard been sharply reduced and total import planı, unless revzed, may for the first time in years fall below oport sailabili txee Tbeto Import planus baro no clonlt been in faencod by price cooniderations During 1952 the price of nice in international trado rumo almost contindowly whilo that of alternativo foodstufts fell. Burma Small 3mm mpecial 49 percent Brokons which had been dalt with early tn 1959 on a government to gotem ment basa at $80 (140) per ton fob Rangoon Tere rold on the name busin at £80 (108) in 103 while at the nor open tendens trattated during 1952 up to about 480 (4) mu pod for tho 600 quality United States nice for sport is 21 to 3 percent moro ci penuire than e year ago with lo I Pearl at $205 feb San Franciao und lo ? Reroro at $310 Lob Houston A fature of the year has been the effort in South Fart 1 to pas more stepilog to quality and to retire the sport diner stedes. This Thailand hus offered multo nice with only 5 per cent Broken at 33 or at 492 ($257) 1 pablo la sterling Thu hu in turn led to an increu Tho faturable factors responsible for the larger crop continno to opento Costs baro gournily ceard to rise capital goods and agricoltural roqui sites aro more readily available whilo tho returns on alorrutiro axes for land und Labor till favor rico groring This tendency continuen, bomover to bo counter balanced by the fact that m many countries with tho notable onception of tho United State farmers are still not allowed to reap directly the benofit of world rice poco There Internal price policies formed . main sub fect at the FAO Special Rice Bicoting held in Beng kok, Junury 1933, which recommended gorem ments to rotton tho police as to ensure that tbome adopted vero definitely meong.ng productlou Barreto production has benefited by moro pouceful condition, but that of Indochina bi mu faring from the estetsdan of wartaro the future of which will bo . foremost factor in rico supplies from South East doa. As regarde demand, the government delegaten at the Bangkok meeting oonddered It probablo that the replacement of considerablo quantities of rico by other grains in many countries in Asia w proso to be permanent feature The fol loving tablo obom tho stildng chungry which, owing to the reo obartago hato occurred during ·TABLE 43. IXTORTO or Rion, WHAT AND VILAT Proud AND OTHA GRIN. OT G ALAN Rich IXTORTINA OJUXTRIC PRXAR AVERAGE 10-19 03 ANTAL OLD IXTI 1134 36 1110 111 1951 1137 (prorilo!) Tutta to R100 (mliked) Othor main. What and flour Othor's 5.89 14) (278) o 13 (4 070) (1 663) 1 176 4 414 3 714) (700) 3 146 7 301 fo) 11 057) 3 401 6 83 (3 194 ) Peroentago of total nina i Rico Other grun. 80 11 78 9 71 07 1 Co The Inde Indono le Jape Valera ad the Phillyban. IDelados burboy muy yordans lod metu, odonta an morces of Il porcent in population hi Hoo ating countries obero, furthermoro there to neod for an inortato In per aput consumption of How The human nood for moro nco odst. but shoo osportoni may m the near fature havo to pay moro attention to prices and their relations to other graine, than hu boon recovery in the last for year SUGAR tho poutwar poriod m the import of other graine Into di main rice importing countries of Ade. Somo uhlfta in demand betweon rice and other foodstuffs are hon over bound to occur Tho pol icy of governments as regard, food subsidica la Important bero In recent year sobaldlos on the ono hard hero tended to intran consumers do mand for rice but on the other to reduce tho will ingdom of governmonts to import rice oming to the Internal financial burlan. During tho past your much suberdies have been lowered and in bomo important areas, e8 in Indie, eron abobah od Wheat imports under the Dew Internatronal Agreement howoror may be more costly although the offoot may bo mitigated in womo Important rico countries 28. Japan, by the Incrouro in quotas This year. larger rice cror and tho appuront excess of miport availabilities oor import planı do not mean that tho world lo esrared of emplo noe forpllon, Scarcely 6 percent moro has been harvested than in prowar day is compared with Due to Cubes curtallment of tho 1953 drop to $1 million tons and to unfaromblo weather conditions in Europe world ontnfugal pagar pro duction (oreluare of the U.8.8.R) decimal in 1952/63 by two million tons from the provlous your stooord of 32.3 million tons Ylolds wuto appreciably lower in protically all Morthorn and Central Europan untno Tho year 1952/03 marked in womo respecte a stop towards stabilization of tbe world sugar Doonomy and the weakening of war-engendered TABLE H Hou: Yond CETRITURAL PRODUCTIOX 1937-38 AVALS AT ANNUAL 1980)51 1952/3 RE0101 11-30 1950/51 1951/11 11113 to rew Europo Sorth and Central Amena South Ameri Ada a Otania. 6 BOO 6 DOO 1 800) 4 400 1 100 1 100 B 900 11 600 3 100 3 300 1 601) 1 000 8 700 13 700 1 200 4 200 1 600 1 800 8 000 10 700 5 800 4 200 1 702 1000 1FOULD { ol 0.88R) 500 30 400 3 300 10 .00 U.SER 2.400 1 000 84 ·Finalls preforeca Production in neo-dollar esporting country made significant pains for the first time ince the end of the war with the mult that noro nigar will bo arailable for export in 1813 from non-dollar nource Asia. production approached the potar Jegel alt bough its distribution withm the conti nent mox fundamentalts Wifferent duction Incrucu In most well aufficient or deficit comtret tacept there to Europe Highls signif Erant are the steady increases in South America and Africa In federal, there incre vere die more to extension of production repogrces than to fitonhle weatbrt conditions rick of migas muralizee bot the mea iitta taken by (yln Femeffectire la preventing a colline About 18 million tons seront mord from sopplies agall ablo for marketing and placed in a special reer and it was announced that the 1052/53 cmr kouki bn Umittel hy decree World prices instead of falling precipitou iş ikeltal gradually Tho aver age prico in 18 of 1.9 U8 cents per popnl Kit about the name as the price in 1948/4D and 300 pet cent bigher than in 183138 Eren tho price (derlated by U 8 index of wholesale price and, to some ertont applicable to Coba) ms al mont (oublo tbe premir serago Tho clecline in price, which continued in the firet three months of 1033 mdo rooniblo tho ter mination of practically all coruumptron controk Rotkoping was finally romored in lnut two con tret Japan, which bad nedaced per capat con rumption to about one-third of pronar mado alg nificant import relaxations and the United King dom announced early in 1053 that nationing wooll abortly be terminated. A contract for a million toni nu negotiated with Cuba at a Thectal price for the specifio pornoer of ending consumer ration ng Consumption Trade and Prices Although 1839 mi a tery good year from the standpoint of consumption, trado and prices, itabo wtre el nome problema Som of these wero doo to General balance of payment dificulties others to the tranation from the specual conditions aused by the war Tho portuar tendency to higher per caput congmption continuel, pedallr in the countries of lor consumption in Africa and Latin America, Inut at . dimnisbed rate E porta probably declined by 1 to: percent from the record high lovel of 117 million tons in the previour year hut were still about 18 percent higher than the premar arerago The most important development wu tho increase in production in 9 million tons danng 1031/62, which rund world output to about 45 percent above premar and led to the emergence of a sorpins for tho first time once the mud of the war Around on percent of the increase in carryorer stoch n concentrated in Cuba brut aglat increant took place also in odber donar esporting countries The rise of thout 10 million tons in cantoret toca advermely affected price and realled meto International Sogar Agreement Although I real collepeo of the workl sugar market which had been forecast in some foortorn kmet 1948 did not occur deep concern to Top felt about the future of the world mugar economr mapecially of the free markot vector To the problem is imioubtells the futensification of of vort to rico production in protected arcuDu comion klout a new international mugar agree ment Asumed greater urgeocrul at the end of 1952 it was decuired to call an international conference to negotiato a new agreement Earls Tat: 15. You HOLD 4XD LR Puch, 103+15 AYD AXTAL 1950-53 Durated by the U .. bolle de Ps TOT Iorda (L.). Cuba) Yer Tort adtty worla Yow York U tous per O DO $ 99 90 2. AT . 1 1934 34 (Arena) 1950 1951 19 Variaber 103* Search 1113 ay 133 +1 tm 5 13 S 50 5T 6 94 1191 304 5 83 Mahut 80 ·in 1953 tho Socretary-General of the United Na tions, acting unuler tho torms of the Havans Char tor mvitel 78 governments to meet in London ip July lonial meer producers about 60 porcent more the world prico and 70 percent moro tha: Apocial Cuban contract mico In the long world production is likely to Inorcase by 1 porcert a your Intornational trade u tom now record in 1063 and may exceed tho pro 1051 rocord by almost a million tons 141 coolino can bo anticipatod by 1051, workil ox uro likely to romain high over tho next few and substantially highor than in promer you Outlook LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS Meat While it is clear that 1052/03 marks an impor tant stngo of transition for sugar tho now pat tom Is not yot well doflnod and not all the forces ooming into play can yot bo assunod. The main gucation is the futuro position of Anio. Afrien 1. Launohod on a trend to higher contumption and tho most spectaoular increase in per caput consumption during the last five years occurred in that oontipont In Asia, on averago per aput consumptlon is still only around 2.5 Wlograms * your and futuro dovelopment will dopond on many complor pocio-coonomo factors Toohnologically ronource for increasing production ard avulablo whothor oconomic forces will faror orpansion romains to be coon To uchioro that end conaldor ablo finanolal retources pould bo necerary us woll o Inorcaves in narouco end omphasis on industrial clovelopment In other continents to postwar consumption gain, aro likely to be permanent and, giren high lovels of income and omployment tho pronat trond will continuo although probably at a roduced ruto Produotion will continue to expand in volt mutilent and deflot oountrien u voll u in non dollar oxporting countrio particularly in the Britlah Commonwealth and in the Prench Union. No Inumatlo dovolonmonts oomparablo to tho grouth of the sugar industry of Jovi nnd Cuba etter World War I uro in prospect but corront forcon will bring about a steady growth in many countries Procluotion renources and potontialltion are por hapa not so favorable in other regioni u in the Cariblican lmt oxpansion programa Aro catated by special prico urangculents, turtl profercn.co long term controts and otlor dovico In 143, tho Unltod Kingdom pald tho Dominion and Co- Bloat production in mont regions was naby tially larger in 1052 than lo the procedling and tho Inatoaro oontinded into tho first ha 1083 In North Amorica, production in 1062 43 percent larger than promar Wostorn Eu Trached the prowar lorol in 1051 und produx Inorca.sod furtbor by 6 percent in 1962 Pro tion in Oceania in 1052 oxcocdal tho flyer tho jitorious your by 8 percent, doo to her incroural whoop slanghteringe In Argentina, oflocts of threo consecutive drought years still apparaat Owing to strong domestic domand and high sumption in primary produoing countries, cou) with scarco foreign exchange in tomo Impor countriom workl trado in mont (Inaluding own meat on curcay-wnight burts) in 1052 sbo only . smull gain over tho prorious your ! Zealanl strengthened its position as tho lere oporter followed by Donmark Shipments f1 Argentine woro only about two-Aftbs of tho 1 u volume Trdo in lo animals in 1052 nu imallor ti in the prorkou yoor Cattio osports from D mark clocrowd by 40 porooot Exporta of stook from Ireland noro rodrod by ono-third to tbo expanslon of tho domestio mlaughtering TABLE 40 IWDEX Uns or I PRODUCTION AT Realty POIOX 1941 100 1031 1981 M04 Wastom Furope orth Amona Bouth Amone Oceania ..3 1344 110 114 90 10 115 117 100 1345 112 10% 100 1 +3 117 110 Deet, rool, plant, attoo id lumb 86 ·Tail. 47 Blur Egro TABELLUTED COUNTUR PREWAR, 1051 AXD 1963 Al tre, except canned (ctado welpet CADOU CAT 1133 1151 1101-31 1131 1151 The ndri in 180 3 17 20 116 107 0 13 10 11 31 A 09 16 ArgentIDS Uruguay Autrelle Von Zanland Canada United States Denmark France Iroland otherlande 393 40 ទាំងនេះគទី 7 soo 39 19 300 219 10 50 09 H 17 ID KA +1 3 10 TOTAL 1 321 1 100 17 137 Frum.LT dastry but this deartam mu offoot partly by lar ger esports of store cattle theep and lambe. The United States ban on lirostock importa frotu Can ada reduced Canadian exports to practicalls nil 15hilo Tentera Germany France Belgium and the United States in 1869 imported bens moet than during the preceding Fear United Kingdom imports increased Ughtly de larger Imports candded with a further Increato in domestio pro dpetion, the meat stration in the Unitod, Kme dom Improred but total supplies were still con siderably ke than before tho wir per amit con stumption of all types of meat was only about two-thirds of the corresponding pronur figure In recent yeun prieto hard been generalls Tity favorable for ment production, but in 1838 they fell mbatantially in many countries in the lor thern Hemisphere Thu shift appears to reflect increasing ropplies rather than e akening of demand In tho Bouthern Hemisphere on the other hand, prices continued to ruo and United Kingdom contract prices for ment from Argon tina, Australia and Now Zealand for 1852/03 per corydorably above those for tho provious reason In Western Europe Livestool prices in the first months of 1853 wero nearly ototywhore below tho correspondling prices in 1952, the only major ox ception Lome the United Kingdom. In tho United States prices of beef steor in January 2013 MOTO 24 percent ben than * leford and tho doclino continued during the first halt of 1853. #horea pig price following a cona dora blo doolino in moduction, word hubutantially highor than a year earlior Slovements of livestock polone In Can mula moto nmilar to thono in the Unitod States The prospects for meat production in 1053/61 are on the whole faronablo Summor pastures in tbe Aorthern Hemiphero ieem to bo in good con dition and the outlook for good crops of foodstuffs in 1053 u oncouraging Cattlo numbers in tho Upital Stater and Canada ere at Tocord lovels and highor prolaction of beef and wal bo orpooted Tank & JICATI UNITED KIYODOX Crom Como ITT 114.3 1150 I11 1151 Tirk 1 Beef ortal Jutton and Lamb Mark Poultry ofnls and other meat Bacon hams and red pork Propard mat, other 340 100 31 00 Ino 16 19) AU 19 304 10 08 mo 17 1 6 TOTAL } 400 1 is 878 Canned bent 71 163 DS 87 ·not only to offret roduonel pigment production but to bring about a furthor although amall, in Creano in total moat procluction In Oceania tho high production loval of the 1952/53 season is Oxrocted to bo malatalned In l'etern Europo produollon will continuo to inorder bat at a lower rato than in the preceding your Whores m . numbor of countrion such as tho United Kingdom, Danmark, the Motherlands and 8vodon, 31 eater plg numlors polat to increase in pigment production, in Western Germany and Belgium tho aprord movomont has come to a stop and 1863/64 pigmont production in the countrion - bo muller World mot trdo is expooted to continue ita expansion, as the outbool for at factory deliver lon from Oceanis uw tell us from Denmark and the Motherlands in favorable Tho total volumo however will to a largo ortant depend on the mpply ponltion in Argontine which in provious yoon had favored tbo produc tion of moat at the expense of mil Canada which for rotural years hol roooriled doolinmg production, ahorral & condenable inoreano in 1952 continuing through the spring months of 1803 In Tetorn Europe production in 1962ro maral at the loval of the provious year largely becanso of dry weather during tho summer and of foot and mouth dmcey but most ooutros roported good fnoresso doriog the fint half of 1053 The stoudy growth of production in New Zea bod oontinued and Australia mado orcellont rocorory from tho drought in 1851/1812 Avilable Information from many Latin Amorsan Anan and African countriem indicate that energotho offorts of governmenta, in comacotion with toohni cal avistanoo work and general agruultural devolopmont havo temalted in gooul programs of their dairying mduxrles Rling milk supplos und firm prices of butter coupod an inorease in butter produotion in many countries during the early part of 1033 During 1952 the output In Wootor Europos 4 por cont below tho level of the provlows year whilo in the United Staten tho dommand trend was rotorood in the autumn of 1932 proventing a doclino from tho 1B31 level Canada tooorded an Inorease of percent against 1001 and produotion in Oceania during the reason 1052/03 recorurod strongly Tbo pronttion of cheeso continued to be firm European production increased to 20 par cent above prorur and also the United Stato, anal Docania produced more Output of promotvod milk ospanded in all major produdng oonntrion E. Datry Produce Conditions for dairying woro gerorally acnunta Boots during the fint months of 1963 and milk production in most countries was substantially higher than a year earlier In tho Unltod States, whoro milk production has been rolatively stablo since 1917 output during the first half of 1903 was 6 percent abova tho lovel of the provioun your Favorablo porturgo oonditions during the past winter combmed with amplo supplomentel focding had , major part in this incronso A fur thor factor supporting this dovelopment appaan to have been the change in price relationships TAPLT 49 Eurorts or DALRY PRODUCTS Trox Vos ErrottiXO COUXTBIES Packar, 1951 AND 1931 Hatter Corte De maported but In porta COOTER 10111! 1951 1951 JIRI) 1931 1153 11140 1151 19 JID 2 1951 1150 130 1171 140 4 1 101 8) 11 The me te 40 811 45 18 18 18 170 199 Denmark Fruno Italy Tetherlands Swodon Bitzerland Canada, Uotod States Australia low Zooland wnãoaluaa TTTTTH THE H-1B719## 12 3 18 100 140 100 42 11 149 180 87 108 83 12 37 TOTAL 470 407 401 13 351 312 413 10 170 190 Ifpohda mulk powder 88 ·peetalh trong mero Tag in dried klm mik, particularly in Capria, the Netherlands Ver Zen land and the United States А. part tmuo to support milk and butterfat pricen at DO porcont of perity until April 10 which under tho proralling low meat pricos shoukl stimulato calrying Contmption of margarine continued to gror in comparison with butter and reached reconi lorola in many countries with Unital States margarino consumption approaching that of buttor Theto aro no sign that the rise in produotion and consumption of margarino io lov olling off and the compotition from this choper subothtute for buttorfzt will also in 1063/64 ad vorbely affoot tho profitability of bruttor produc tlon In practically all countries and encourage the dironsion to checne and other prodncta Largor orportallo supplies of dairy products in 1053/84 shoukl mablo wortel trado to orpand com pared with the proplous euron. Buoh opension, borrover doponda greatly on tho earing of proteo thoniat moanroy and balance of payment cuffon! ties FISHERIES PRODUCTS ITorld trado in butter in 1952 declined furtbor because of mand production and exports from Denmart, the Motherlands und Sweden of tho shrinkage in workl exports the Unitod Kingdom Imported 16 porcent les butter than to the prerious year and import, Into Western Germany Hero don by two-third, Cheero tnde U smaller too Warreas in 1951 erports from Canada and the United States had amounted to 50 000 tons, they were in the past year low than 3 000 tons On the other hand, Australia and all major European producom with tho ercertion of Sweden, erportedl moro In contrast to meat, pricoa for milk and its prol mots were generally higher in 1032/63 than in the prestoun conxOn The only major exceptions WTO Canada and the United States In Canada, bat ter prices enco Biny 1859 bare been lower than * your before In the United Statem tho deolho started in the last months of 1802 and in January 1953 tho buttor price was 10 percent lower than a Faur before As price foll to support lerola, the United Statet govornment purchased large quan titles of dairy products. Following larger output of dairy prodtwo in the first half of 1903, prices of ohcoro and proverted milk partioularly started to doolino in other parts aloo Torld ego produotion in 1012/03 romained at the lovel of the proding year The 1032 world trade in abell eggs was lerter than in tho pro vious year but there mu a wreto decline in drtod ces and tho quantity of liquid creyer entering trado u reduced also In Weston Europe, og prloes in 1852 bad been genorally abord tbo 1031 love! whilo in Canada and tho United Stater they acro considerably lower All indications neem to promise a good reason for the dairy industria in 1813/04 Grazing in tho Aorthern Flembophete got a good start which ale uporta tho aperto for a good bay bariert The outlook by mid year 1033 for good supplies of courro gruns, tobera and other fecaling crop i encouraging, and no criou drooghta hard been reported from the Southern Hemisphere The contiand reduction d the number of hores in many countries may also stimulato liventock pro doction by making more feed aralawo Lorer meat prices in the United States and llatern Earopo may also counge mill prodoction The United States portent will con The world catch of fish crustacount and mollunt In 1953 has been estimated at 28,000 000 motrio tons An espedally large incroor in Japan has to a certain extent counter balanced a light crop In outpat ha most of the other major produang countries. During 1052 in general, fshormon hed to face a rining trond in the oonte of oraft fuel and fahing gear shllo their products were markoted. at prices that had increased only slightly or cron doolined us compared with 1931 Catches and Landings Mayor Producing Countries Canada (inclod ing Terloundland), the United States China Japan, Norway the United Kingilom and tho U.S.S.R aro the largest fish producing countries in the world Acotinto data uro not available on tho recent output of China and tho 0.8.8 R but pomo otrdenco romu to indicate tluat It incron ing Japan increased its production from 3,800 000 tonu In 181 to 700 000 tonus in 1932 (23 percent істео) In Canada, the United Statey tho Uni ted Kingdom and larway tho 1832 production was between 1 and 6 percent less than in 1031 (Table 60) Vedix Prodron Coxntries Tlus proup in cludes the Union of South Afrla (lacluling South West Africa) India horch the Philippines, De 89 ·TANLE TOTAL ANNUAL CATC or FN CRUTTAAN AYD VOLLURO BY S LECTED COUNTI, PREWAX AXD 1918 Cour 1113 1117 1911 1311 1150 TLH sustris tu GLAD TOTAL 11 +18 1° 33 19 378 0 13 108 5 14 310 1 15 110. 16 1 8 NOR MODUO 80315 88 ?! 8 573 6 8 809 9 885 1 10 013 0 10 859 Canada 9 014 ? 0771 916 2 003 6 018 0 940 0 Japan 33 11 007 1 2 1838 2 990 + 3 783 6 3 700 Norway 1 1396 1 190 1 1 5040 1 7 3 1 467 - 1 838 1 998 Unitod Kingdom 1 107 1 1 110 0 1 007 1 1687 0398 1 085 8 11 100 0 United Stata 2 314 8 ? 345) 1 4300 2 816 8 GE 1 2 SKO • 313 JEDIUN PRODUCTS 2 716 0 2 800 8 09 3011 1 3 In 3 1 819 1 + 124 0 Donmart 06 1 2004 225 8 25 O 231 2 204 32 0 Franco 10+ +31 O 135 1 132 0 +03 6 1900 0 o 1070 Gormony Wartorn +13 3 313 2 600 g 6800 000 2 Iooland 743 177 404 7 307 B 417 & 11000 Tethorlands 78 7 291 0 294 2440 280 0 208 3 Philippines 00 L31 4 193 1 190 02 3066 193 231 5 273 2 291 1 307 3 Portugal 107 6 210 1 372 + 551 O 878 8 0933 014 Spain 10000 180 0 100 0 Union of South Africa 1120 25 0 1900 46.500 73] 3 OBJ + 1 0934 1 2715 1 776 . BUOTED KALLAX PRODUCERS 1 410 3 52 0 111 8 1306 133 8 108 180 0 Angola S 3 63 1 12 09 5 3 07 190 0 Ang ating 428 81 2 70 08 3 604 BO 6 69 8 Bolgium 103 3 139 1448 181 1180 0 1600 11 0 0 Bruil 306 601 67 702 80 7 93 0 Chile 011 300 100 1000 1110 0 1115 0 17 103 0 Fearoos 30 3 604 65 8 08 3 122 90 9 121 8 Fronoh Alorocoo 40 0 400 AS 7 00 B OU O 078 Finland 20 0 1. O 21 2 31 0 31 0 1150 Hong Kong 13 7 21 5 239 18 2 161 140 Ireland 18 8 188 2 182 0 1703 180 0 1901 184 0 212 1 Italy 1438 178 8 207 8 203 ) 2000 SD Bwodon 10 0 16 O 30 0 37 3 1315 O 356 486 Belgian Congo Norli The motrin total ostohet pant of the wated work total 1.*** tome, whosenluded Datinated 5.000.00. toor tron in and the U.HS.R. Data on the road (wholo) treba dat ben. 1 Prorlatocal trato Inhding Borth Yr Atto mark, Franco, Western Clermany Iceland the Motherland, Bwodon, Portugal and Spain Tbo output of the Union of South Afrier (inclod ing South West Africs) shows tho Largest gaun in thus group and wu tomo 20 porcont higher than In 1851 For the othon, mall decrease in the Cox, for instance of Western Gormany and loo Lend more offset by light Increase in Donmark and the Mothorlanda Small Producing Countries This group includes all the othor oonntries whloh wually produce lewe than 250 000 tons annually In some instanca there countrien hard sborn furis largo percentage changes for the 1952 output but as the prodaction in the countries involved is not largo there chan schare only a local kignificance if ing and no effect on the worki trado and consumption Fresh, Chilled or Frozen Fishery Prodacts Although frozen commodities aro relatively now tho npid post war dovelopment of froezing proces toe has brought thom to a lovel approdmating in importance to the output of cured and canned fish. In Canade production of frozen fillots roudilly Increased from 15 000 tons m 1917 to somo 30 000 ton In JBOL A omilar openslon Oorded in Iceland, Norway and Japan and other countries whiloh uro important suppliers to the United States The United States 1832 output of frozen fish amountad to 142,100 tow allightly lew than in 1851 largely as a result of a decline in frozen ocean perch Aneta The United Stata is the world largest martot for frosh or frozen fillots of cod, haddock And 90 ·import trade in fresh and frozen shrimps han in chas rapidly during the provar ytan from 0,000 tons in 1947 to 10 000 ton in 1931 This locrease in the immt nupply canto mainly from Bloxles although 1912 was . poor year The United Statem Alsorly the bulk of the world, output of fresh and Ingen rock Holmtor talks of porta principally from the Union of South Africa South West Africa, Cubo and Australia. Almilar pecky and Ocran retrh. Total Agout consumptions incroyed from 49,400 tons in 1030 to 107 000 tonis in 10JI-82. Domentio production irmaped fairly stable during 1848-4 tho lo erram in capnikt came entirely from a napfully dorcloping import trodo which doubled from 1948 to 1952 Fresh Cuted or Frodes at The most war trent m tho laternational trade in fronh, chilleal or frozen fah, un ahora la Tablo 51 abons e Ught Incene In 2012 over 1031 Both years were higher than 1850 when a recordon Occurred. The gener el food thortage (moediately aftor World Mar I encouraged a high tolovne of esporta from Iceland an horway in the year 1917-10 lato extera Germany and the Dnited Kingdom In 183 direct Ierlandia landings in the United Kingdom abowed a num drop - renait of the disputo with the United Kingrlom Fresh, Chilled or Froren Volluthe. Fresh, chil led or frozen motsala and other mollauk orporta amount to Proxmately 000 tons (which in clades e hilgte inedillo percentago) annually the Loll of which la accounted for by the Motherlands od Danmark Tous les remained stable during 1847 ** and approximated the 2038 Lorel Tho balk of tho imports aro tcounted for by Relgium, Larembourg and Pranco Freak and Frupen Cremercran The internatioa trade in frcech and froren crostaceanu (bobster, piny bolntors, whrimp and craba) amounts an mually to mmo 40 000 took The Uaited States Cared Ftshery Products Stockfish Hockfish food anul similar stocles drsed als without multiag) aro prachucod montly in Norway and to a lower (Itcnt in Iceland and Japan Tho output of Topland increased during 1951-52 white that of Japan fluctuatod during tho postupytanat loroka much lower than precar The Norwegian prodwotion was 25 000 ton. In 1838 and botween 9 000 to R1,000 tons in 1947-61 with a small decline in 1852 (2,000 tons compared with 27,000 for 1951) Tho 1993 production in libets to le oron emallor doo to the fullare of the coastal cod fishing in the ageing Virtually all the larwegian output of stockfish is arported to Italy and Britlah territories in Nort Africa and the opports very closely with produotlon bo Italian market whero bo naumpthon is confined mainly to a for regions such as Turcany and Venetia after the drop u 1010 was atabilized during the throa joart 10%-52 at Jereb od 8001 to 10 000 rota with ready wholesale and retail prot. TAL 81 EuroRT TWDB IK BELECTED WENT Corun, 1938 um 184" 52 LOOCOOTT 101 2017 1313 2011 11:02 3500 165 1 618 : 612.0 4217 3347 to R Fuch fremh chilled at fraan truracer and mother, (reth fract (dual number pecies, salton. rektih Hemins an amuler pectre cured Parine motoru Hemu uxl mular recret rundred Frih moral and whar produrti 103 0 6 64 3 357 13 6 90 % 02 3679 18 7 HO 192" 333 170 2400 13 7 78 HO BIO 187 8 21 & 207 156 I TO O 298 {11 03 2 INI 15 9 1738 147 0 3458 + [39 DI 7 2147 016 Spirou) tu # Torton (Cande, tichuttende Da Loobu od Kannan and 1 Sonthus Tartin Ito lar Yetberaten und Valted Bacon xports tronunte Dentarha Vaak kthend, XRVAS sport hand tried met de mettre les tres cada uno de Kroortbah Deput (tutt wth Yatoh Fruite leplum Kors Liputat Leod ud Nam bare ed ind und ni bertat un dels produtre Cufioclin Karton levi icland turhit Ky w lata Kit sports that Luted States lochdor dual got the card The Worotta Lerpt to the hudh den total dlalt Futro Arora tra Ancol CaorldLoks Vathored Yarras 01 ·Salted Cod Tho porld production of ulted ood avenugod noually 200 OG0 tons (dried height bas) during the faterwer period 1920-39 (Sco Table 88) During the 1930s strong tendency to turn away from maltod cod prodnotion to fresh and frozen fillets under the stimulus of the United Statem inport market Locame perceptible in Can ada und Nowfoundland This tendonog Fan strengthened during the posthur year and be came noticeable also in Iocland and to porno artont in Norway A diversion of cod landings to the produotion of dred-Halted prodoots tends to our whenover the fresh and frozon igh prwoes for those two commodito uro not remunerativo enough. Dur ing the 1940 Kaled ood output in the Soandina vuan countries won at a los lovol compared with prowar your boondoo of a sharp increase in do mand for frosh fish immediately after the mar In 1860-62 on inoreasing trend towards tho prodaction of multed ood appeared in Iceland whloh had been alow in rovívmg hor postwar wted ood Tho Portugueme and Spanish production for domotio consumption oontinued to inorowe and in spite of the downward tondenoy in Canada world produotion of sulteil ood was mantatnod at . high lovel in 1962 In looland and the Faerons the postwar tondanoy has boon to orport wet-salted commodities nther tben finished diod wltod produots In 1052 Canada exported 84,700 tons (03 800 tons drlod weight) of cultod ood products 12,000 tan, lous than in 1980 and 1051 and approd mately 25 000 tone lows than in 1938. Ar runt of tho disputo with the United Kingdom Icelan dic exports of troch and troron fish dropped in 1962 and the raw materials were switched to the propowing of multod ood with the result that ar ports from the country of the cured products frcreuod rapidly and amounted to 49 000 tons (8.65 400 ton driod wolght bu) Norveglan I porta in 1052 of 68,000 tons of dnod altod fuh made it a rooord your for tho last throe docados Thoro wu a slight Inorowo in the total osports from Canada (mcluding Now foundland) Den nurk (ozoluding the Protoco) France Iceland and Torway Among importer, Spain and Portugal import upprealablo quantities to ungmont thou om do mootto soppller while the other lange markets uro dependent entirely on ontekdo pourcon for their total suppliers Tho Itallan market vu reported to le qurto weak u z rosult of the hary importa in 1852 and deoline in demand during the 1892,03 #inter Considerable stoob on hand hero doprepod the prices and the poor quality of pomo importa hai cured a drop in domend Increased trosh Anh production to Italy may almo Influence the domand for salted cod Salled leming Salted berring to prodoved chlofty in Western Carmany tho Lotharland, Norway and the United Kingdom During tho interwar period the worki domand for multed her ring had declmod and the asport markoto woto restricted us a result of trade berriers, which bor camo perticularly intento after the world depress słon of tho early 1930 During the immediato postwar years 1917-49 thoro was u tomponury mcrease in the demand uirorult of tho general food ahortage Horover with the improvement of tho food poction the doohne in tbo osport outlets discouraged ouring from 1850 onwards und the reduotion Industries in vront countries havo boon taking inarong proportions of tho landad quantities for proocaing to noul ud ou Tho production of malted horring nu tained in 1952 at approximately the same level us in 1961 which i, bog over only two-thirds of the 1938 volume An improvement in the axport situation has been taking place in 1891-63 and tho North Western European produonoare activo in axpanding alos to the traditional markets for thes esports in the U.8.8.R and Eastern Europe mum Carmed Fishery Products Peatic Salmon. The autoh of Profilo winon in 1902 wus smaller than in 1901 urovult of the two-yeer oyale and over smaller than the 1848-60 ontoh In British Columbus it was not only the futural fluctuation in the roaduroo whlah nu rooponable for the smallest pack apo 1914 bat aloo prioo deputas, atzikos, tlo-ups, oto which provented tho full utilization of the flahing poten tal Thao woonomdo dificultlos unose from the marketing dililoultion catrod by tho largo carryoror from the orooptionally good year of 1951 Canada buy boon oiperrenaing gravo diffioultlos in its traditional Commonwealth markota sluch took tory little of the bilo 1951 pack and virtually nothing in 1852 The North American market hus, borerer been strengthened by tho non of the United Kingdom buyog Largo quen title of Canadian Almon in 1963 Haring and Sailor Species This group in cludes a great yurlety of canned peaks that tary 100ording to pooles Ingrabenta and packing 92 ·In the United States the total production from shad. Isino sardines and won herrms California rakhard, elerines and anchorios dronrod to 36,700 tons of on-half of tho 1031 output wblot to tun mu only 60 percent of the 1950 output This detreux muated by udrutis declino in tho Caldornle pllakard suck from 105,500 tops mm 1850 to 2,200 tons in 1952 dno to a complete Lallare of the fubory United States annad pacha from Laine endlines and rem berting doubled to 31 700 tona in 1953 which ust less than the 35 400 tons in 100 Norrey'i prodoction of 22,000 tans in 19. mu the lowest since 1947 I. French Dorocco, orperiencing export duttiloulthen, tho 100 ontpot was allghtly law than in 1931 Portugal bone a 20 percent com la 1052 over 1931 . result of fractured abundance in the natoni nece Increase alto took place in the rack from the Union of South Africa with the continued increux in fishing and caring fedit... La Japan, In spite of a npid expansion u part of tho postwar tobabilitation donng 1940 195.20 tho 1902 output of 91 000 ton mg still less thun the 1838 production of 2,900 tons Exporta in 1852 from Portogal, Canada and tho Totherlands incretard bat pot mongh to offset the drop la oxports from tho Unlod Stato, mbaro tbo falburo of the California ptoband flabary reduced aportablo surplome, French Sorocco und dorry Total oyporto to markets all the world trom roten producing countries which la 1050-61 Begregated anmully to approdatoly 170 000 tona declined la 1808 to momo $2,000 TARLI BŁ PLODOCTION OF BELETRO PILKY COYODITN, 1938 AND 1847-52 OasITT 1A 1011 140 1440 1050 11.01 1837 hometria Low Frapen product Fich, crustaceans & mollund 3.79 350 2 613 7 QUO Cwel products urhoog, alories and mi lar petitt Cod. altod (dried weight 1801 453 0 4038 3038 SO 2000 47 1 Stoollah MO 17 0 300 0 774 0 11 O 267 0 179 280 0 10. 7 165 G 105 1616 1438 Cand products Balcon Herria, urdine, potuerda und konar mooie Tuna, true maola! eod mular qocket Cretacean' und malluks 30 207 0 SIO 3510 MO 318 0 OOO 1080 117 D 1880 120 141 O 400 14.0 400 Owe and fou Whalo sod other squatio mul olur and fat Fb body Lirer and yocera 6178 3718 414 5 493 9 onla 279 1678 1670 03 7799 D 910 6 Vrole and other feedwy *** Fahal Il balo od other equatio mumma mak Anomal food, op nu can eu BLS 7 0:00.0 7155 812 7 19 B 41 81 0 TUS Kont: the produt reicht esettels* Dirt cover with ma data eru notabia TAOTertua Florine tia. I kde pretend the interello ride in partion) Dastus L1IL ta 1,10 Ditre tan comandat 411.11 tous la 12:31pt. Xotan 93 ·T'ma The bulk of the connod tans is produced in Callformla and other Pacific maritimo states of the Unitod Atata After World War II tho Unitod Stato production under en expanding domontio demand forearod npidly and the pack was reeched in 1950 with 79 100 tons oomparod with 71 000 tons in 1851 78 600 tony in 1952 and 22,200 tons only in 1938. The Japanese postwar production, under the stimulus of increasing exports to the Unitod Sta te market, expanded rapedly in 1950-59 to o total of 42,900 ton. in 1851 and 84,400 ton in 1969 Beforo 1850 the antire Unftod Btetos importa of annod tuns vore in all and, with the rohulll tation of the Japanese canning industry these importo tooroud from 2000 ton in 1940 to ovar 16 800 tons in 1880 Howover hon tho Unftod Stato imposed duty imports of tune cennod to oll dropped to 1 600 tons in 1601 and 1 200 tons In 1952 As this duty doo not apply to tans onnod in bring the United States importa of this commodity negligiblo before 1950 Inoroud from 200 tons in 1950 to 4 800 tons in 1951 und 8,000 tonu fn 1962 Japan wu the mam poppllor of all the fresh and annod tums, whilo Peru md other South Amazon oountries contributod small Imounts Total importa mamly from Japen of froah and froren tune, virtually all for delivery us raw material to cannerles in the United Stata, umounting to 6,200 tons in 1938 1,200 tops In 1947-48 Increased rapidly to 81 300 tony In 1952 Mueelancow Products In addition to imell quantities of miscellanous canned fish, crustacouna and molluab products for human consumption, tho Unitod Btatoo produoed unnually a large riso pack of cannod fich for animal food and pot food, which in 1862 had a value of nearly $10 000 000 The production of canned fish for animal food Inclou od npidly during postwar yoan, as mdi cated by tho figure in Tzble 62 As a result of the completo fallurs of California pilchard Flahery in 1952 tho United States output of pllchard moal dropped to lous than 400 tonu Tho continued expansion of the monhadon production, however more than balanced the do croeso in ouput of finh meals and the 1802 man baden maal produotion amounted to 180 700 toos whinh is an inorear of 26,000 tons over that of 1881 Tho Unitod States production of floh vol nblou shom a raped postwar inorcur from 8 000 tons in 1947 to 46,000 tons during 1040-51 The fish meal industry in the Union of South Africa and South Wert Africa, barod on the rapid erpanoon of tho Atlantio piloherd and mau bank or catches increased its output from e nogligiblo quantity in 1947 to over 71 100 tons in 1852 Whllo Norway's output of monks, other than herring med roma dod fairly stablo during 1947 1002 at the 14,000 to 19000 tons loval annually compared with 16,000 tons in 1938 ita herring moal output in 1951 and 1852 wu more than twloo tho 1938 output of 88, 800 tono In 1062 the Norwegian output amountod to 202 000 tono of flah moal In the United Kingdom a stody increase in production took placo during the postwar your from 41 000 tons in 1947 to 77 000 tans in 1981 The rehabilitation of the flohorla of Woutern Ger many is reflectod also in the output of flah meal, słuch Inarousod from 18,600 tons in 1948 to 63,300 tons in 1981 this to allghtly low than tho 78 000 tons of 1938. Japan, the world. lergoat fih moal und fortilizer producor in prower yoor has not yet rogumod ita place as a dgnificant producer and itu 1858 output of 89 500 tons was virtually all fertilizer The npid inoreuso in the postwar oxtoral trado m flah moal is born in Table 81 Angola, the Union of South Africa, South West Afrio, Canada, Looland and Norway moro mejor exporters. The United States Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark, Germany tho Notborlands, the United Kingdom und Austru uro among the largest importarı Tho Notborlanda importing over 31 000 tons un nually m 1950-51 dluappearod u. dgnificant market in 1852 when only 4, 100 tons were importod Fish Meals Tho 1952 output of fish moals (Including equatio mammal meal, the output of which will not in crouto salotentially above the present annual eror 4go of oto 28 000 tona) wu 870 000 tons, wbloh w4 900 000 tons oro then in 1948 The rapid postpar lacreano lo manly accounted for by Nor way the Union of South Africa Angola and tho United States and Canade under the stumulus of en expanding demand for livestook feeding in the udruncod ugrionltanl roglopu Aquatic Animal Olls and Fats AS . reult of unfavorablo woather in the Anturotío in 1802/03 thoro was an approdablo drop in the numbor of whales onght and tho quantity of wbalo oll prodDood Only 14,800 bluo whalo unfts word caught by the pelagio apolitians in the Antarotlo whlah approciably low then tho 04 ·10,000 unite lotel stipulated by the Internation al Thaling Convention of 1040 Tbo podaction of fish oils aboved a steady in creure during the post her youn and during 1017 1051 it doubled and doring the latter year it amounted to 573,000 tons compared with 133,400 in 1947 and 218,000 toru in 1838. In tbo United States, the production has been declining use result of the drop in output from the California pllcbard fubory and to Alankan berring fishery although partly counter balanced by the increased output from the menhadon facry China and Indonede production is aii botere prorar North American production has to creased robotantially and lo por about 30 percent aboso furore Despite tho Increase in world production, world indigenous esports of fate, ofland oil cale in tertus of oil, remain omafter than prover u con pumption has increased materially in womo of the countries that werd lange esporten before the war World arports in 1834 39 including #bulo oll from the Antarctic, averagod 0.1 million motrlo tons Thero osports had fallen to only 2.2 million Detric ton by 1015, thon steadly run to 57 milhon tons In 1851 but deolmed to about 61 milon tons In 1052 (Tablo 63) Tho declino in 1952 reflectod maller erport topplies of como itona and a reduced import dan mand for others Argentino o porto of Unsoed and lingcod oil ma 1852 declined by 280 000 tons, in torms of ol, mainly me a result of partial full ure of the linked crop harvested in November December 1051 Argentino export of sunflower Herd al in 1952 declined by 70 000 tons, munly because of the mall crop in the pouring of that yeur With tho Indonesian coconut crop FATS, OILS AND OLSEEDS Current Situation Torld production of fats and oils not about 10 percent aboro tko prowar lorel. However as world population has rleen about 16 percent pro daction per caput remains plightly below provar Production in Europo hu recovered from tho mar timo low and now 10 to 10 percent larger than before the war but in the Fur East, Dotably in TAJLE 83. FORLD DODATXOCT Esporte or FATI, O AND OILAREDO IX TERX or OIL BY REDOX AXD BY Ters, 1038 AND 1950-61 ITEM 110 1150 1.51 1051 BY FOLOX Tintike u 402 1 001 133 cas Europos Worth Amoriam Bouth Amotion AL Acce Ocoule. Antarotio 406 1 130 005 1 761 1 101 36 343 203 I 013 179 1 817 1 240 419 571 1 813 1 383 33 344 I 149 300 BOS TYORLD TOTAL 0 089 8573 5 005 6 080 BT TO Butter fat contont Liqud edible ollut Hard 01 Tale and fixth oil Degins and mucellaneou och 100 1 97 2 193 cas 45 405 200 1 310 : 410 511 670 200 351 1 313 : 618 012 631 19 317 I 009 16 WORLD TOTAL 6 089 5 573 6 095 $080 de condroose oseti odprted from hedlnost materia The Extra Laropens : trk and the US.IL dot treado por Turn TTDIDAT Cectadus UL perpt la IA. Chledy moderat. tbn. cottoarer Un, nopembor, u haod of unalot of prordni moltard, net, the end Key comentar Keroel othe, tako dado que des de palo rottre modtog of this areto coated to a Iport Spend oll and te le ore in Detin cherh te Pihly Horostor and tuned Urdrunthored udal 95 ·FIGURE 10. MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICES OF FATS AND OILS IN INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 1950-53 ROLE TO LOGWAITHE SCALE CoOTO 100 400 sabotantially reduced from the unusually high lovel of tho proceding year world esports of oopra and coconut oll in 1852 word down by 190 000 tons in tarms of oil. Exports of poybeans and poybean oil from tho United States declined by 180 000 tony, oil equivalent, reflocting e mabotantial ro duotion to Italian and Spanish importa Theco bad boen tusually largo in 1851 to supplement amall domestie sopplies of olho ol The only tems showing a mubatantial increuk in 1939 mero Inoltto tallow and ground, with an inorou of 00 000 tonu from the United States and palm oil, with an Incrou of nourly 50 000 toos from Nigeria and Indonode. Not imports into cloren Westom Earopean countries in 1959 more about 29 million motrio tors, us compared with 3.4 million tons in 1981 tho pouk postwur your Imports were onception Jy largo in lato 1850 and ourly 1851 w a rosult of a stroog domand for fats and oils to add to stoala. This domand declinod during the latter part of 1951 boworor and in 1902 decalon ud meri u well us somo governments, apparently word rodaamg tbo anumally largo stocks locumulatod in prorlow your Estimated prodaotion of futs and odds in tho cloran Wootern European countries, plus Det Importa, averaged about 04 million motrio toos In 1951 and 1862 compared with $1 million Dotrio tons in 1834-38 The otimated supply LOOT HOTUM 100+ 400 too roo 100 Hoo TANLE BL. FATE AND OILS (DAW AND INDIAL) : IDIOCYOUS PODUCTION AND Icon BALANC or 11 TYRTEL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 1 PREWAR AID 1940-1953 too M ho 1 Pro PDUOD Appurut Import 000rumption bal c Qantity Per Pooa t Foto: Preu compted to Termo Ledger (LODa) un record to UJ debent at omdi ntcnun. boll Delta Coun, bank JL Dornport Coercat : ita $ or 3X* bant, el kre peu port Groudant Indon, brol L. Europou pert Boy Aperket rode LED Lard Lutet 37-, the cox Two (13) LADCT, bolt, Lob. MY Line 11 Beldan, int te.b. 10. ure Pruwer 1940 1050 1031 1953 11 IB 71 30 16! 311 611 40 0 % 60 83 943 20 3 20 Bat-Lumbus Deut, Friend Get Repub- Dhe, Funch, Italy. x Lber, Nanny twin beter Land ad United Khardom. Pronar Autor Oorben been started t pt caly the rh pon tahest ta the Trion Reprila · Estlostat protocta trone tertion materia the aundar eu fidant Imports miau aperto olen tend to top of oll Compita tin rumbo a to thoonds of Dato toh Ara 114 Hot 1924-11 • Trendoart per apat in 1951 end 1952 avongod 238 Wograme, shghtly below the prever lovel of 24.5 Wlograms After dealining sabatantially from spring 1851 to spring 1842, proog of fata, afls and allwooda in international markets bowed varying trends accordmg to the commodity From April 1952 to April 1953 thore wore batantial incrous in the prior o cooonot oll and liquid odhlo rogota blo olla little change in the price of palm oil 98 ·Add tor und dealines in tho price of land und laced oil Tho general lorul of International market pr cou of fati und alles, w indicated by a wrighted Averago of 7 major items, tome 20 porcent from April 1863 to Apoll 1953 From April to Juno 1953 thoro were doolines in prices of most Items. Tbo reo in coconut oil and copri pridem u largely due to the declino in production and er porto in Indoneeds and the Philppines, which bogan in the spring of 1852 Total arports from thom two louding axporters were 20 percent waller In the last 9 months of 1849 than & your subor and continued at low level in the first 6 months of IBUS The government proe rupport program for oottom od in the United States resulted in the Dovement of about 400 000 tons of cottonpond oil into gorordniont stools in the 1852/53 marketing TOAT United States prioce of oottonwood ol and of Its chief domootio competitor nog bean oil, topo in lato 1852 and early 1803 and moo the United States to an exporter of those oils, International market prices of all liquid dible Tegetablo 01aloo tended to riso Produotion of pediblo talow and greaves in the United States remained at a high level in 1852 and early 1003 United States prodaction of noap the principal outlet for inodiblo tellow and grosso, doolinod moderately owing mainly to tho competition of synthetio detergents the United States orportable purplus of these fata thou in oroused and exports row to a now high World production and otporta of paloa oll aloo rose la 1902 Howoter une coconut oil compete with talow in moup manufacturo and compete with palm oll in both soap and food son, the doolino in coconut oil supplies wu a price supporting factor for palm oll and tabor The dealuo in the price of land during 1812 wus duo to continued high production in the United States and a fall in arports during the latter part of 1956 But with a sharp full in production in early 1803, lard roce rom in tho spring Tho poice of lord oll u hugh at the begin ning of 1852, having already risen to dancoont the otceptionally poor Argentino linseed crop hertta. od in lato 1951 During 1952 and the Ant ball d 1953, the price of hureed oil declined almost continously some countries were able to meet part of their requirements from largo stocks on hand at the bedaning of tho year Also reports mero forthcoming from countries other than As gentina, and the opply outlook for 1933 became increasingly larorable Outlook Prooroots in only sommer 1053 indicated. slight inorease in world indigenoti orports for the year provided that growing conditions for Northern Homlophero oropo remain fardnablo Esports of Nigerian groundnuts and groundnut oll are likely to rise as a result of an improvamont in the rull movement from Northern Nigorla to seo porte. Suppbes of liquil od/blo vegetable oils In the United Stato ero rubctantially larger in 1953 than in 1062 reflecting an increanod (curry over into 1953 Bat the total quantity of these oils that will be commercially evalablo in 1053 whothor for domestio me or for orport will do pond partly on tho government, polioy with rogard to ito stock of cottonsood oil documulated In 1952)63 World or porta of hard oils probe ably will roach about the samo total in 1933 . In 1952 Further doolino in osporta of Philippino and Indonesian copra aro lkely to bo about offrot by Inorous in world erporta of palm oll and Uprted Stato orporta of tallow and groupon. Tho ontoh of wulos in the Antarctio in the moon endod 18 laroh 1063 nummaller than your vorlier and production of whale oll doclinod about 0 percent A moderato declino in orports of lord from the Unito Stato th, orlds major exportor is Ukely in 1063 Unitod Stator production of lard in 1953 probably will fall about 10 percent, reflooting reduced bog prodaotion. Vith the incround crop of hnsood harvostel in lato 1852, Argentino exports of Unrood oll aro Hicaly to the substantially in 1953 from tho or tromoly low 1962 lovel of 40 000 toru (Inoluding KOIDO liptood in tornu of oll) Theo port to talled about 35 000 tons in January-Juno 1003 Argentina be the loading world osporter of lorood oll. FRESH FRUIT The principal Ends of fruft ontoring world trade - upples, pean trus banana havo Leen produced in steadily rorondng quantition In portwur year, most regions sharing in thia in erent The only exceptions aro froduction of gripo (Inolodmg wino grapes) - hloh khoro no marked change und of dried fruits World trudo on the other hand, bu beon mallor in rolamo for all prindpal khade other than pean and grape tratt, rhich form a relatively small part of the total, and dried fruit which has changed Littlo a decrease in rudaina oftvetting u box in datos 07 ·On belance, fruit supplies are lenger and consump tion is orpanding in both importing and export ing countries. Broad movements in prodnotion and trudo ero summarized in the following table TAL. 5. LIDIT OF PRODUOTION AND TUDO DIAJOR F. Faum ConcrODITY Irud Fredratico 1917 01 10119 B ports IN1-01 TL Thread 505 Table Apple Tubl. Pour Orungo, Tangerinas Grapefruit Lennon. Bonano 190 108 140 1.7 13 131 81 107 87 114 78 107 I 885 los 213 9 200 fore the wyr but the United Kingdom Imports are still sabotantially bolow proper European imports of lemons, vory largely of European origin, hard rocantly averagod somo throo-qortons of the propar lovels, owme partly to the effoots of disoused in producing countries Earopean fotports of grapefruit are also conobatontly belor pronar imports from the United States the main supplier being limited by a chango shortage Europoun Apple production more than half u largo agan us in the prowar yarn. The ai porting countries abow a relatively greator in Crear but European importers now tako mbatantially smallor quantities of apples, whilo importo of poan show littlo change A considerably lar ger proportion of both is now obtained from European suppliers, the Netheranda, Italy Den mark and Belghum exporting larger quantities although Western Germany and the United King dom remain tho only conuderablo Importers. Erports of apples from Canada, the Unitod States and Australu, the three largest and tho only con ddorablo oxporters of apples, hato shrunk correspondingly Imports of banana Into Europo hard arongod nome 80 percent of the prowar quantities, Africa harme gained us exporter at the expens of Cen trel Amerloe. The United Kingdom imports iro much below prowar quantities, but other Eu ropean countries mbow general and rubatantial Inoraiso Europe Developments in Other Region More than ball of tho total fruit ontoring world trado finds to market in a relatively mall number of Importing countries in Western Europe In fact except for banana sporta, shch in tonnago uro tho marn Item in the fruit trado and which are dirootod Largely to tho United States, Europorn countries absorbed throc-quarter of avenge warld exports in 1948 to 1951 and oren moto in prowar youn Tbo ahrinking m world trade since prower roer is the result of reduction in the imports of European countries the imports of the root of the world romaining virtually wobang och. In the portod 1918-01 European fruit im ports woro 17 percent less than proper In 19:52 United Kingdom Imports of tresh fruft dooroured 19 percent against 1831 bere Vestern Ger many inoroured imports by 27 percent (mainly citrus and bananas) and France by 5 percent. The Scandinavian countries also increased their imports At lout half of the imports into European coun tries to supplied by other European countries. Thoro arporters to tending to increase their sburo In a reduced markot so that other suppliers havo had to bar the brunt of the contraction Tbo Largest Item to European Imports to run to which recovered their provar lost in 1850 and exceeded it in 1951 and in 1952 The European ropplion did not recover thotr promur lovel of exports until 1951 Africa haytng manwhilo in creased its crports coraidorably France DOT tho loading importor takes . largo proportion of its increased imports from French Worth Atria Germany is again u Important a market us be In North Amorker thoro has boop Ifttlo ahango to applo production, but dgnificant inorenno in peur production. Esports of both the fruits from this region hero deolied mabutantially On the other hand, production of aitru fruits, nota bly orange, which to almost entirely ooncentratod in the United States ha expanded greatly EX ports of onangoo and mpofrutt hard also grown (by 40 percent), though not to the umo extent # production. This incrous together with an increase in United States oxports of fresh grape to bered solely on tho errending Canadian markota Europe dospito heavy United States oxport aboldlea, has been shrinking market The more mont of bananos from Contral America to North Aborla, itpronting the ball of the world be dana trado u only slightly bolow the proper rol Shipments to other roglony, bororor uro DOT aler umo 98 ·Supplies for Consumption Banana ciporta from South America, reflecting an opward troud in prodaction, baro increund by 10 percent unico prorar yord, but orparts of oranges ato down 80 percent Brazll baring lost muoh of Ita farmor European market Destdious frult exporta, largely to destinations within the region, abow orrandon Arla • citrus fruit cxports hero bcon dignificantly mallor in postwo years, cupoually since tho partition of Palestino Banana osport, mainly from Tuman, aro aloo greatly roduoed. Malayan pineapplo production and exports are also much moaler In Africa - u in South America and Agie citrus fruit and bananas ero tbo prineral fresh fruit exports and a napad ospendon of production and exportu haue ocourted since the war balk of tho osports good to Europo and tho sharp competition in that market with muboldhod citrus cxports from other regions is causing momo con cern with regard to the marketing of the still in crousing output In Ooennia, the main feature has been the doolino in applo esports due to tho European ospension, though 1052 brought some recovery A calculation of total mupp.106 for domestio congumption of the principal frosh Irults (applen, poan oranges and bananas) ne fow importing and orproting countnes indicates rory mubatan thal incrpore during the last for your comparat with tho 1031-38 poriod. On tho itorage supplies baro increased more in tho principal export ing countries than in the importing countries bat, with tho oncoption of the United Kingtlom, total commercial mupplies hero Inortased largely in all countries. The United Kinglom supplies are down to about po porcent of prowar us soppllon of oranges and bananas prore respectively 88 porvent and 53 porcent only whillo applo supplies hero Increased 25 porcent and rapples of pears 4 poroont. Apples and peers account for u mbstantial part of the increase in most not importing * well as net oxporting countries In Frenco bowotar the greater inorder has boen in or Logou and in pain in supplier of orangos and banana TAJLA KO BUTTLT, rom Hoe CoxPTION OT TADLA ArrLA AXD PLAM, ORATIO U BANANAL DX 11 81.DCTED Coux Coor 1631-31 &Tona 111111 STIL 103 1940 91 1062 Population 1031 Then tries Post DUI Arre Peranlage Nam Insporter Gorranny Western Freno United Kingloo Belgiumn Larembourg Canada sritretland Awochen 1 057 I 100 1 2 819 1 370 1 m2 1 461 -49 1 431 351 JIC 107 105 141 165 90 104 172 163 49 180 110 101 180 483 145 um 314 318 101 107 104 A 114 113 361 IUS 161 Total (7 countries) # TO 7 100 1KO 111 Nar Esportera Ualted States Italy Rpan Yetherlande 1 340 120 05 11 36 1 319 TO 32 137 170 mo IDO 110 212 10 180 204 109 Total (4 comtnet) - 741 11 177 11 141 141 117 GLAD TOTAL (11 countne) 1: 471 17 418 18 247 140 110 114 Protectho + torports Tports of tr trut. X adhortat barn med toe truports and I parts of an in e truit het Icelontant Meets White Ok i pewarit beban tbat 15% of total pins Prima CLETEMU u cunod by the li ottheiletla Bring within the borders of the at Trenu Papaulo phu Hatta 1-1 Terus 101 am DO ·Outlook Tho rapid pour spansion of doaldwout frult produotion to Wostorn Europo and the ordo moro npid oxpansion of ortogo production in the United States and in the Mediterranean region have quod momo concert, about futuro marketing us now plantings continuo on a largo scale This oonoorn sidorotood in your of bumper crops On the other hand, damand for fresh fruit is thorouing In most countries and there has bocn a rory marked inorous in total consumption in North Amer boo and in several contractal European porn trion. A high nato of employment and incomo and the greater approdation of tho importance of bottor balanced diots hayo 1ooounted for this ox pannon. In the United States the demand for oltrus fuloes has opened a now outlot and DOT ROocrunta for apprordmately 50 percent of orango consumption A considerablo relarstion of tho Unitod King dom rortrictions imporod in November 1001 and March 1952 m. innounood in larch 1903 and may rovalt in . mabstantial Increase in importa during 1952/03 Other European countriem may also increase thar importa On the other hand, any coonomlo roocodon in Western Europo might Immedjatoly loud to rootrictions on frult importa and the bighly spoolaltod oltru asporting countries, roh us Spain, French North Atrio, Italy and lonel, and axtromoly vulnerable to further limitations to out lots for their cxport supplies The competition arpong theco oduntries is very harp as it indhontod by the special govormont mouuron applied to promoto osporto Vino esports hard decreased pomo 10 percent Ainoo 1034-38, though thoy Incroned from Franco and Portugal. On the whole borover arports Locount for only a small percontago of production French boer production in recent year has amounted only to one-third of the pronar lovol, borou Italian boor production has moro then doubled in the amo period. Pranch wirto con sumption per caput and year ustngod 118 Inton In 1834-38 ugainst 92 litor in 1850/81 Italian pot caput consumption was approximately 80 Intens la 1850 against 85-80 liten pronar Iulian und French wine prices have incrocurod relatively loos than most other agricultural products uod costs baro iDortured moro than prices. Franco produced in 1862 6L7 milion hl. (noloding Algarle) und had a comidorable carryovur from 1961 (167 million hl. ax compared with 0.2 million hl last your) Itahan rooks woro 10 to 18 percent of tho annual production. To support tho market the French government tekos & mult stantial portion for alcohol production but at a PT100 which is only about throo-dghtha of tho prsce pald for wino for consumption. Soveral European countrieu aro restricting areas under vinogurds and in Franco and Bitzerland markoting u regu latod by gradul rolours of wino with the aim of proventing a brouk in tho market Production of rabats and currants m the firo potraspal prodaoing countries are od 314,000 ton in 1019-31 gainet 673 000 tonprowar 10 percent decrear although produotion in tho United States remained on the provar lovel Prodootion in 1909 in tbero potuntries i artimated * 528,000 ton with United States output alono at 288,000 tons gatest the pronar production of noorly 200 000 totus Total erports in 1910-11 word on the averago 18 percent lower than promur but marcured domowhat in 1802 Tho Unito Stato osports are being rubaidized by an export promtum of $60 per metrio ton. Turklich maltana puricou were $235 per ton by tho ond of February 1963 against $208 the year before By the end of the rowon Bley 18) price had improved allghtly but more stol below those of the previous your Apparently unvold stoob o maltene raisins woro mellor thon had bom expected WINE AND RAISINS The postwo yean havo bronght onomio diffioaltion to the grapo fodastry in tho pelactpal producing countrion Demand for dried frutt hus geur erally boon weaker and wo hu tbo domand for wino in both Importing and otporting countries High taxts om vloo and quantitatiro import to striction har limitod tho outlots for wine or porta At the same time competition from other boverage, in particular boor and romo non-ebobolto drinks, has bmitod wine consumption ovon In romo of tho principal wtro producing oountries Total wino production to the last for ytan her, on the arengo boon at the um local u in the youn 1931-38, FrDoo, Algorie, und Spain bowlog . doortox Angoottra and Italy mloce Inca ou but the United Stata tro to three fold Incro COFFEE Current Situation Although offeo production in 1002 romo by about 8 porcent oror tbo prorbou year it mu still below the prowar loval. World Imports were 100 ·TAL, 67 COTTA. PRODUOTIOX IN VAJON AREAS, PAR UD AXIAL 1950-83 141 H 111071 1931/3 1951/31 Tuna strietor 1 0714 Brutal Colombia Other Latin American countries 1 461 2 410 7 1 0B02 140 130 0 I 180 0 300 0 461 0 4570 Tertern Hombero 3 117 0 1 3 2 I 3040 1 977 0 140 0 1010 231 0 78 0 316 0 87 0 310 0 81 0 Athos Ada and Obaunla TUD Total 1 4200 1 100 0 2 3700 Prudhat Borded to tour putant Ltd about 8 percent higher than in 1051 largely owing to morceaed European imports. Throughout tho year prie kept remarkably stable at about 04 UB centa a pound (Santos 4, Now York) Cof foo was thus 000 of the for commodities almost completely meglected by the sturenl downward trend of commodity price in 1962 und higher earning from its exports were obtained by most producing countries The increuro in production took place mamly in Latin America. Tith the exception of a for minor producers, all Western Hernlephere comes to recorded larger harteots than in 1851/02 In Brasil, Parune gained importanco us the mese ood largert productng center after Bao Paulo owing to the exceptionally high yields of its young planting.. Babatantial increases were registered m El Salrador Venezuela and Ecuador In Ads and Afriom borotor output romaned mobatan tially unchanged. The major dovolopment in tho intertutional coffco trado in 1852 nu an increase in European imports, which in 1917 word still only 50 percent of the pronar lovol Babstantial idorur m purchases by France, Italy Gormany and tho Scandmaran countria, facilitated by artopairo bilateral trade agreements with Latin American countries rived total European Imports by about 14 percent - a largo inoreano u compared with the tro percent niso in 1851 12 United States took 2 percent of world importa, us comparnd with 5 portent m 1901 (49 percent prowar) Tho alight declino reflected reduced purchases for the armed forces olvilan per caput consumption, on the other hand, is estimated to hovo Increased romowhat Imports into other parts of tho world xero probably slightly lower than In 1851 TALKS Corrie Lucraro DITO T. UYTTAD BTATDI, CANADA, EUROPE AND ESTIUTED WORLD IxrTI, AND PIC, Pan w ANTUAL 1950-81 1143 11.30 1051 11391 Laporta The altri 1 100 United Buat Canada Europe Want TOTAL 1 315 0 I 218 0 401 17. 7100 400 0 600 D 1 600 I 700 1 010 0 1 933 0 Pokoon US CAN Renta 4 EI Dock low York 9 SO 90 A10 &1 01 I Treats 101 ·Outlook High prices hero induced now planting in many contres of Contral and South Amerlou as wall u Afries, but avilable data aro pot adoquate for quantitativo estimates of production frowpects In Colombla production has trop staadily by 3 to 5 portent anntally and the trend is likely to con tinue during the nort fow yon Tho Moran National Coffor Commbulon has dorolopod 1 8 mr dovelopment program, and further arpan don of planting is likely to tako placo as suitablo land in opened to transportation. Tork to nie ylekdo of existing ooffoc plantations or to expuod plantings has been going op aboo in El Salvador Guatemals Conta Rica, Nicangue, tho Domini can Ropubllo Venezuela and Eowdor In Afriar, continuation of tbo upard production trend during the part 5 to 10 youn can bo antid patod in to Belgian Congo Ethłoplo, French West Africa, Uganda, Tanganylla and Fronch Equatorial Africa. Govornment programs to an counago production and to improro markoting exist in most of these territorio.. Dorputo the prospect of continued substantial Increases in production, the domand and pleo outlook in tho long run for coffoe appears to be moro prombaing than for most othar agrloultural commodities, Asuming normal weather conditions, production in 1968/14 should show a slight rite plantod once tho end of the war hero como into bearing In Bradl the early mdications are fa vorable In other Latin American countries and in Africa tho apsurd produotion trend u likoly to continue although the increase in orportabło suppllos may not bo very largo Btoclus in practi cally all producing countries are down to the mmimum operating needs Asuming continued high lovels of consomio activity in the chief consuming ountries, the domard atuation of the part yours is likely to con todo in 1953/84 Sinco do major increase in rappbes is to be anticipated prices are likely to romain comparatively high. As to the long term outlook, the market pros pocts for coffoo appeur to be favorable While prices may declino obghtly If mappbias increto approolably all mdloutions point to tho continuation of the domand trood of the past four yean In the high consuming countries vertimo and post nr guns in per o put consumptron havo boen solidifiod, and the coffeo druong babit appears to bo spreading In many countries in which proour per caput consumption wu very low What Lleos certain & the outlook for the intermodleto period of u for your If some very optimistio current reports on production propeots during 1856-58 aro borno out it o posiblo that tho ar pandon of production may bo moro rapid than tho growth of demand, which might hard substan tial prioo offects Homoror data on planting, replanting and on tbo other busto factors which will determino pro duction ard not sufficiently reliablo for quantitativo fortcuts The rango bottroen tho potential opti mum and monimum, on the basis of availablo planting data (apuming, of couTBO normal oH matio conditions may bo u mach u 200 000 tons or about 10 percent of world prodaotlon. The most wgnificant doubt concerns the production outlook in Brul) Corakdarbto planting has taken place on Pinda and other Southern artes but antimata of the number of trea Dow in a batonco mry by 18 much u 30 percent Ono recont official report stimated that Perane production may reach clore to 800 000 tons m 1955 but other reports are congdonably loud optimbitio Equally uncertain is whether the doolmo in troo population of the important old produing region of Sao Paulo la continuing TEA Largely boon the of lower prices and drought oonditions in Caylon und Indonola, world production in 1952, orclaro of China and the U-8.B.R was lightly lower than tho rooord crop of the provious your but wu almost 30 percent higher than during 1931-38 In Indie, which wu clofly affoctod by the prior dooling, production fall by 8 percent bocah of finor pluolang In Japan, howotor productiom mee to about tho prowar loval, while in Africa tho trend to higher production continued (Tablo 00) World orporta in 1852 deolined rebooting anul Jer shipmonts from India, Pakdoten und Indonode but osports from Ceylon Incured ligtas doo to the genul consumors' preforenco for high quality ta Export: from British Afrioan porondonu continued to ne, and, although these iro a small part of world arports 1052 shipments ropromontod an increase of almost 100 porceat aboto ITO Whilo imports into the United Kingdom and the United States row by 7 and 10 poroont respecthely total world importa noto probably slightly (1 percent) low or than in 1851 102 ·COCOA TANI 9 Tea PRODUCTION TLD AX Major AT COLONTO AD CALOUTTA AUCTION, dinom 1937-38, D AMTUAL 1916-5- Current Situation TEA Pto to 1 TY perta La o I. price paten ports And Gut tor red by con Icelontwole BUDU Co prloo lon bo foder World Iroduction of cocoa boam m 1052/03 u 10 porcent higher than in the proriot year Tho rumo wa doo to faturblo Feather conditions in mont producing arous and not to any fundamental chango in baslo sapply conditions In the two chiet proloding countries of Africa and Brazil the last year's crop wu 10 percent below prowar Practically tho ontiro rise in world mapplion orer 1034-38 mu dao to increured production in French Test Africa and the minor productng countries of Latin America (Tiad Aatik in 1934 34 40 100 100 400 290 301 301 1046 112 1947 169 35 83 1948. 187 574 HO 71 19:19 435 90 TABLE 0 COCOA, PRODUOTTOK 1950 318 81 1931-3* cos 1111/31.109/ 1051 287 03 1052 076 416 1383 740 57 Thendris WTB O 316 0 815 1080 1 Is Cat, Indodhlu U... 11737-JI - 140 Instant 20 Gold Coast and Nigeria French Afrios Other Atrion Brud Bntbyh West Indios Otbor Latin Amarion countries Other countries WORLD TOTAL 304 0 12 O 33 0 07 0 16 0 1100 1240 21 7 03 3 110 0 13 0 110 0 & O 50 8 0 730 0 000 0 700 0 Pricca declined rosoroly in 1952 especially thomo of tbo low quality India and Pakistan teus The high quality tea from Coylon colored much lere, and everage prices for the last dr months wore eren Nightly higher than during the corresponding period in 1951 to removal of controls on Unrtod Kingdom conmutaption and trade in October 1852, contrary to expectations did not imamediately simulato consumption and prices borover the mourare taken by India to curtail production contriluted to a general reano in porces at the end of the your and during the early Donths of 1953 It seems that, abort of a major recension In poteen of primary products, tea practs will remain comparatively high for the rest of the current sur bilo tes outpat could be greatly expanded m the Far Eastern countrie tea produceri, cope cially in India, Paldatan and Indonesia fact very actions ecopistac problemes Praluction conta hero ser considerabls roso then prent and the "real treo of te received by producers m 1052 was probably not more than 00 to 75 pocent of rear la the United Kingdom a gradual return to remer lerek of consumption reme lo marked inetu in consumption is Hely to occur in other coneguts countries Horitet an over-all improvement in quality hook iarnato be marketing of the 19.33 crop The box crop of 1881769 and tho abyonoo of CATTEOTTty reduced 1952 oxporta by 7 porcent During the first part of the year world pricou ron to 38 to 12 UB oemts lb whiloh I tho higbart on tooord oicopt for a fow monthu in 1047/48 aftor tho removal of police control la the Ualted Statos Although the supply attuation improved greatly in the autumn, and price doollnod at the end of the rear the annual erprigo low York prica *** about tho me u in 1051 36.5 U 8 conta as compared with QI during 1034-38. During tho first part of 1953 price roootored somoshat and remained relatirely firm Hoxover producen bara pot benefited to tbo mo talent in all countries from the great prico rise in the French at Afncan territorior and in Latin America, producon priecs baro Increased more or leu proportionately with the world prices and this may explain tbon trend of production. On the other hand, prodocons in Vigeria and on the Goll Count bato benofited least largely because tho Marketing Boards wbuch monopolize tho buying a wellng actrity hers paid the producent only about 60 percent ,عليا 103 ·Tan 01 Cocos Packs or Cooox BS AND OT OTHER COMODITIES IN THE UNITED STATE, SAADUD THE UNITED KINGDON, 1980 81 terupd UL طمطما# Yz Peta Inde Inder the a oon I ta Yo Tack Wbolul Paola unft pulco per prestood 00000 bona importa xar tador Ind at the tait une zalon at 6000 por nu barn Inder beports nun 6.4 1930 1961 100 473 001 1587 110 28 415 575 1823 211 25 21 690 141 10 mootba. od State Imports word almost 25 percent kommer - 1.5 Hlograms per person un compared to 19 In 1934-38 Only the United Kingdom and somo Afrioan and Latin American countilos Inorcard Importa. Outlook of the averago fob price realised since 1847/48 Moreover the high cost of imports and interul inflationary dovelopments hero further redaced tho real" price of cocon. While the under of cocou pricht (193-1-38 100) in 1958 mus around 690 us compared with 220 of the general Unitod States wholesale prica inder, the index of tho United Kingdom export prices which relloptu costs of imported goods to produoan in tropical caporting countries, averaged 341 The Ineta tiro to expand prodaotion has thus Loon great where world prices vero fully reflected in prices to producers The long term effects of high cocos prices on demand may be ler fortunato Tho Last year wit neued a conardorabło strengthening of consumer rogurtance to high prices, especally in the United State whero Imports of beads and cocoa products (In terms of bends) decimod for tho third nocer to your although prices m 1862 mero no higher than in 1851 and only slightly higher than in 1950 Tot imports of beuns in 1002 Tero eron lower than in 1831-88. On per caput buan, the Unit. Ao major increuso in produotion is to le expect ed during the courto of tho nort fow yeun planting here taken place onco the end of the war especially in tho minor producing comtrion but it is doubtful whether this factor is strong crough to ofisot moro adverse farcen, lot abono to allow for i substantial net more On the demand ade the price and supply dovelopments of the last for your hard roverved . 50-year trend of continuously ring consumption m Europe and North Amerion Tho production and marketing program of Industrial proccown of oocoa bean, especially in the Unit ed States, here been oortollod, and tho coceptanco by tho publlo of alterontho prodoots is normasing TARLE 02 COCOA IXTON TY UITE ATATE AD CANADA, UID KODOY, EUROM. AD TOTAL TOULD PALA AND 19.50-63 Ar 104 3 228 1931 ALA Caos buen 411 Ocos Cors bemos 111 oecant 111 ooooo Odoo be AN 0000.1 The met U.S.A. and Canada United Kingdom Europe (CL Endom Europo) 98 13 1 110 1 110 005 0 World TOTAL 000 1 Cocos prodoots 4 tende a hot Yot ang 104 ·In many countries. Since it doet tot som at presents that supples will greatly uportat prices ato Icely to remain firm In the cront of and den dae in production, priced Funk bo likely to decling more than proportionately and the pronar long terma trond d Hong consumption would then Trenert trekt TOBACCO World tobacco production for 10-12 mu only slightly follor than in tho poriado Fear Thereus world trado decreased by Learly 18 percent Stocks by the end of 1952 roro rabotentially larger in the United States, but were greatly reduced in tho Varted Kingtlon. Arenago price of Vaited States and Canadian tobacco wore slightly lomor than to 1851 torou Southern Rhodesian to bacco Increased apTreciably m petro The decrease in production h the United States 44 doo to the dry mummer whereas the doortas in Cajuda and Greece u doo to reducrd plantings Output of Virginia tobuco in Bouthorn Rhodona and India Increased slightly Tho outpat of cigar loaf was lower u tho Bahia crop in Bradl amounted to only 18 000 tona, aguinat 27 000 tou tho year before the 1963 crop i ospocted to reach only 9000 toru bocaur of A motoro drought The 1952183 allocation for United Btates tobacoo was only $340 mullion compared with $140.9 million in 1951/5, $80 million in 1950/81 and $20 million in 2010/00 Allocations for importe of Canadian tobacco Rhoned tho samo movement Additional allorations for United Stata tobacco in 1002/03, boyuter hero been mado carly in 1993 to buy 34,000 tons of tho 1852 crop mu marked for Bitish manufacturen mder a special option Total United States exports in 1852 doordased be 57 000 tonu and orports to tho United King dom alone clocrowed from 100,000 tops to 25,000 ton. United Stata exports to Western Germany bomover rogo by 14 000 tons reaching 38,000 tone, pix times the pronar figure Canadian sports in 1962 obored some thortar as a ranit of increased United Kinglom purchases during tho Lator part of 1951 but will decreano during 1852/53. Groek esports of leaf rom 33 percent and socounted for 43.3 poroent m value of all Greek crports Mont of tho income was in ex porta to Western and Eastern Germany Austria, Bandioaria Bpain and the United States Stocks and Prices Trade United States stock wol April 1803 vero 2,038,000 tona (larm salad weight) or 112,800 tons larger than in 1912 Tbs inorden wu all in fluo cured and Burley tobacco Canadun stocks wero sbghtly larger aberean Greek surplus stocks of old tobacco hero boon robotantially relocedu result of the Incrpored erporto. Stools in the United Kingdom u of 1 April roro 170,800 tons The fall in leaf exports rut mainly duo to tho cest in United Kingdom dollar allocations for United States and Canadian tobacco importu Tam . PRODUCTIOX AYD Error or Lrar TOBACCO PREWAL, 10.81 AND 1001 (8 Xuân Hương Duy) Produtos Exporte coom areno 1913 1952 1911 800 05 1 001 61 193 United States Canada Tadio Routhern Rhode la Turkey Groooo Brd Cuba 120 17 30 10 67 2 15 81 42 22 118 JL 12 31 39 17 30 18 TOTAL (8 countries) 1 192 13 1 034 240 409 421 23: 13 1 Inch di Iran 103 ·of the German mortot Tho Greek оштету donaluation to April 1863 may stimulate tobacco orports further Dercand for loaf tobacoo Lo strong in all coun trle und tar rodootions on tobacoo products in somo Test European countries may nano domand further (dry weight) . decreas of 43,000 tons anos 1 April 1962 Prices in tho Unitod Btates market doring 1852 FOTO slightly below the proplous your oncept in the beet grados of which output Tu compara tively amaller Southern Rhodendan five-ourod pri ood at the emotions in April to Augart 1952 word highor Tho averago prloo tn 1952 reached 42.8.. por lbor 8.280. por lb more than in 1951 Aver ugo unit rates of exports m novon major arporting countries 1940-52 wo abown in the following tablo Tho unft valuos differ widely covarding to types and grade Unit value for Rboderuen and Indian tobooo which are the main robatitutas for Virgınlı tobacoo from the dollar area showed an Inorcum 1952 COTTON Current Situation TARLE 04 Error UXLT VALUE OF LUT TODA000 For the second time in the posthur period thoro Aro sign of cotton curplur. After additions during two rocooaivo reasons, tho world carryo per at tho and of 1962/63 stood in about the who ratio to conrumption us at the end of the 1840/80 Pouson, and pr100 ero bemg largely upheld by pr100 cupport operation in the United States With production optimated at 36.3 million belom and consumption at $2.5 million balon in 1952/08 tho world ourtyoror is calvulatod to me to nearly 18 million balos, corrosponding to about 6 to 7 months consumption at tho current rato dour 1140 1110 1951 1951 US UNA Canada Cube Grooo Turlony Boathom Rhodade Todha 1 11 1 16 1 21 091 2 10 1 10 1 18 I 17 1 19 1 06 1 20 O ED 008 1 37 1 11 1 31 12 1 11 10 001 1 37 1 21 1 31 177 1 07 1 32 0 70 Tana 6. COTTON: WORLD PRODUCTION Commur TIO AD Broon BOY Prodootion Stock Coro pttoo 1 7 ur becay Apell, napt 1151 when date rar to Ihon ker 10 8 Outlook 6 30 1037-38 svorio 1247/18 1949/49 1949/KO. 1960/01 1981/62 1983/83 31 1 17 0 14 7 16 0 16 0 11 6 16 0 17 8 387 Proydoll wameto. Boua Internetoon Cotton Adrary Committ Oriental mp As a result of tho largo cartyoru m the United Statou, tho 1908 zareago allotments to flas-curod and Burloy are respectively 7 and 8 percent lower than in 1948 and total planting may dooroase 0.8 percent The Canadun scroago of five-curod, drustically out in 1962, has beon Jowed to in COUR 12.6 percent. Supplier of Aldo-cured from Bouthorn Rhodadla (auctions April August 1953) may rouch rocord in spite of OIDORU V ruine at the end of the growing reupon. pliou may bo about the same but the persous doo in Brazilian agar leat may result . shortage of supplies for the olgar odotry It is orpected that the United Kingdom will morous its dollar allocations for 1963/64 Arall blo substitutas from soft currency countries aro forufficient to keep imports of Virginia tobacco from tho Unted States and Canada u lov us in 1852/03 Thero are indications that arrental tobacoo will gradually reguin un important abaro Tho upward trood of production since the end of World War II w brokt only in 1950/01 when sorouge rootilotions were in force in the United States and low piolds obtained By 1951/12 and again in 1902/03, production wus 10 percoot aboro the 1834-38 erorigo In spato of the orpension in the area under cotton in postwar yours, Lorongo In 1962/03 is still rather smaller than tho provar Averago Yholds har mbowa . romarkablo - Crouse everaging about 20 porcent hither in the past flro seasons than ta tho filvo promr DOLODL. Thus - partly due to the ortodon of lolgation (08 Bidlo Eart) and the shift to Irrigated ro- 106 ·TADLA 06 Corox PRODUCTIOX DX BILOR PRODUCTNO Rxatoxt 1911/19 1911/10 101051 113157 115131 Prax in 140 16 0 44 107 99 89 114 10 1 70 13 3 160 6 8 19 6 90 United Stata Boylet Union and China El hora of which reziso. Brun Rupt Turcay Pubten India 18 08 18 18 03 08 20 09 14 18 04 10 11 17 1 A 08 12 17 17 Da 13 8 18 19 Trothstone into quently lower yiolds in the cover of India In other cuntries goldo Moro Toporally hipher Im proved yields partly ofloot the effect of mo llor plantings in the United States and ontirely ac counted for the increase in tho Egyptian crop Record crore pero barrested in Turkey and Pak Istan. Tho maintonanco of a high lovel of world output you thoroforo in romo measuro fortaltous and farmota and governments in important grow ing refrons and Don concerned to plant les cotton Tho postwar pand trend has been loon stop and low dofinito in cotton congmption than in production, thus bringing about a tondenoy toward surplus from time to timo With higher standards of living a trend in the consumption of Abors, which aro tory largely and for pare) purporer, at boast commensurato with population grorth might bo oipnotod. gloos (off, United States) whore adoqueto moisturo to provided and tho climato le conducto to Dents and dones It lo refcota the extended uro of hlgber yielding tarieties, notably in PH mtan and tho BB. East, and a greater use of fertilizers and obemicals in aleceu und innot control At tho Amo time, tho mechanluation of cotton cultivation and harvesting is catending In tho Unitod States, nearly ome-ifth of the croſ is now mechanically pokod, with a consequent comidorale faring in Labor costu. Produotion trenda movo uphards in all rograma CTCCTot in the United Statet where leasing out of Acoount tho retractod 1951/52 crop a rather xta blo Tulumo of 14 to 10 million balea has been har veetod over tho past four or five your There are unoticial roporti of . Dotable Increano In cotton growing in tho Soviet Union and China, Irut tho most significant proportional cipansion has takon place la Hozico and Turkey a hero output bus almost trebled and in Pakisten which has almost doubled its production ofer the past fira juni Expression in Bru, EPF and India has been omaller Other crops, notably coffee tooded to reduco cotton groning in Bruul motll tho sharp rono in cotton prices in 1050/01 whillo in India anul Egypt ciunulom has been limited by the concen tration on food production. Changes in Egypt production pattem a between longer ud shorter stapler were also affected the size of the crop In 1959/63 efforts to FTUR mort cottos FOTO cbrcked by falling prices at planting time bat al bough total acreage wu curtalled, the reduction in the world crop you not compyururate 07 the mayor producets Brudl, India and Chisa bur nied amalkT TOT The ruletantul redocties vete attribatable mainly to reduced planting in the care of Brull and to drought and coor TABLE 67 ATPARAL FUJI IVORLD COXAUFTION rah Cart Cotton Saol and Harne Cotton Pated Kata 1938 99 70 27 194B 19.40 19.50 1931 1951 30 38 72 30 7: Per apat consumption of tho major aprarol file has been at or aboto the prever lovel at moet continuoualy over the past find ytan Thuy borerer does not apply to cotton Only once in tho postuur en in 1031 when lange acolo mili tary and speculatite deroan affected the ritua 107 ·TANLE COTIOX: Coruxor Tox pluran T.DTIL. PRODUCXO REATON மY IHTS 1148/40 14.110 1150/11 11511 Tula United States 7 8 89 10 8 Europo of which 61 OD 67 Unitod Kingdom Fnnoo Germany Italy 10 11 04 08 30 10 06 10 11 11 0 0 0D 12 II 10 18 12 OD 09 India Japan hna 36 06 3 I 37 07 30 10 13 31 16 19 38 18 31 Sorlat Union 1D 18 tlon, did cotton consumption arcood tho provar per caput nato Cotton 1 proportion in the total Apparel fibors consumption has declined from 78 percent to around 72 percent This tattribut ablo to tophnologtoul advancos in manmedo Abery and to the emorgen.co of rayon ou tho Losroot priced apparel Aber Apart from the relatively modest woulo of in Crear, cotton oonsumption hus muffered intormit tent rotbacks connected with relatively mild changes in oonomo activity which here rather propornood offoots on tortile industries The dolmo in cotton consumption in 1948/49 w attributable to the pause in woonombo sotiv ity to hard currency countries notably the Unitod Stata Following the opeurgo connected with tho Koroan confilot, a moro genanl doolino ocourred in 1861/82 It affooted all tortillo todos tries and all of tho Wertorn Hommphoro meloding Europe and the torritorios conomically closely mochatod with it. Only in the Eastern hemi wphore boro apparol standards aro rolatiroly low and, in muny countries, here not yet rooovered to promar lovels, did cotton conrumption continuo to malo headny reflecting for India, China and the Soviet Union Largor domestio crop The 1012/03 wurm has seen como limítod roporary In tortile activity in the America and Europe On the wholo bowoter u markets are fairly well soppled with tartilos thero to httlo incentivo to manufacture boyupd immediate requirements In tho Eut on the other hand, there are still loro local potential market, and in arport markets almo Futom tertia industries hard romo ad antago in relatively low raw material and mana fucturing costs World trado in cotton has been robjoot to long term doolino doo to Industdalization and th Locompanying fall in cotton tortilo importa, an also to tho general advance of rayon Into ootton markote. Eren under tho most propitiou oogd tronus in 1949/50 with a cotton abortago aspecto and prions rising stodíly Oxporto failed to roko the proper average of 13 million below. Tho yo umo in rabooqoont nouson at 12 million belo is unlikely to bo achioved in 1952/53 Pricou o cotton havo doolinod to support lorola and onoop for strategio rouona, tbero lo pomo inoontirot importing countries to alloy stools to run down The United Statau aharo in world trado in ootton which beforo tho wr was broadly dotorminod by tho arullabality of other cottons at or slightly bolo the United States support prior bas over tho per for your been moro dotorminod by tho dole xhortago and tbo scalo of Unito Stato foreign ad for cotton. Only in 1980/81 when . world ootton shortugo dopolopod and export restrictions Tere in foroo ta tho Unttod Stato did Unitoc Statos shipments fall below the proper propor TAL 0 YORLD AD UTID STATE ETON or COTTON World VAA Perotot UL Notebo 130 1014-39 Evengo 1948/49 19496. 1950) 01 1981/62. $ 8 107 116 119 11 0 41 46 344 46 68 108 ·FIGURE 11 WORLD COTTON PRICES 1950/51 - 1952/53 (Local prier plus export tarn) SEMI LOGARITHMIC SCALE 100 Equivalent US cents / ID 90- ALHOUN GOOO 70 TOP ULO M3 개 60 N PUHUA) 10! 30 40 U OOC 02 ON WOOUNG A 30 1930/31 1951/52 1952/53 tion In 1962/63 momo symptoms of the power wituation reappeared Dollar aid for cotton in nous forma till necorary but larger export aniwlities of non-dollar cottons haro nor developed and there are moring into osport channels freeir and under various forms of undo tre ments at prices more competitive with Luted Staten prices than at any time in the post lour STA Consequently the United States share of the world market DAY contrast The abrenice of . Torld market for cotton in the post-ar era and the multitude of governmen tal operations afecting trade in this commodity make the determination d te world price exceed meir ufficolt In tbo curte postnr yean, when textile industries were being relubilitated and mar Accumulations of cotton were being worked down, United States prices teneked dortyurda and thore debere umrla - tortom of the dete! oping dollar abortare But thibo the dollar bort 450 oartallod domand for United Statoo cotton this brought only limited reluctions in United States prices since they were already coming to rest on the official support level Tho ourtall ment dui, bowover have a counterpart in an oi pended demand for on-dollar cottons The output of such cottons was oxpanding only very gradually In consequence prices for non-dollar (Bradl, Egyit Pakistan) cottona haro rinco 1848 tended to premium over dollar (United States and Jerlaan) cottonThe promote he NAITOW ed with foreign aid programs for United States cotton and increased supply of non-dollar cotton. Duriog 1852/03 the outstanding feature has been the diminibed demand for all cotton, tho fall of Vated Staten price to the support letel and the virtual dentearence of the premla for pam-dollar cotton In Isct MOMO countries, notably Egypt have intrulurrd jorter rusport ar rangement. Jinkel with United Staten reken 100 ·Outlook and soon omlo udyantages of ngon may now bo nearing fullest explortation and now dnntages may be low couly devoloped At tho me tumo the promise which Heing standards of living bold for Inoroused oottog oonnumpuan ao bo aspootod to bo fulfillod only gradually and will dopend to . oongiderable ortont on oontinued 200comio program in tnderdoveloped countries As importing countries havo topded to allow stooks to run down pomowbat in thoroute in poloer would encourage trade Longer tunge prospeota dopeod on the nature of the price leadership given by the United States Snoo export rubdidtoa for cotton have now been officially ruled out, the world prior strtoturo for cotton and the volume and pattern of trade in It will dopend on the moro fundamental troos of United States agrloultural polloy Tho 1863/64 Pouson -ill be a crucial one for cotton. With priced at a lower lovel then at any timo in the last four youn, end resting largely on ofilcial mupporta, guvernments are already discour ging cotton production. In the Unito Stato. arop 94 million bales imaller than last sauron wu oflcally roommended, but the irot atimato of tho aree plantod at 24,618,000 garan tadioates & crop of perhapo ono mulon, but not moro than 14 million below ameller Ondal ootton Loronge restriotions are n foroo in Pakistan, Egypt, and Syru and reduced plantings are ei pooted aloo fn Madoo and Turkey In gooonal, tbardore oven excluding the possibility of yiolds fulling below hast reason relatively high lovol, a fairly substantul reduction in tho world crop to antlapated. Aroduction of 8 million balos in the world cotton crop would bring it substantially into Hino nith the current rate of world congampton. The futuro of ootton consumption is, however doubt ful. The conflicting long range influences of luces of markets to manmedo Albery and of gains in stand urde of living in densoły populatod regions where cotton tortle ero consumod on , lengo kalo aro not cosy to balance In any ovent they may bo manked in the whort period by the Influcaoo of prloo fluctuataona ad general mdustrial lovals Tho outoomo of tho 1808/64 herroot end tho way in which govordinonta defino their produotian and price pollacy will therdoro bo important teoton determining tho volume of conampton uchrovod nart nouson, As to the longer rango factory, it annot be us kumod that tho inroads mado by syntbotias nto cotton marhotu will be oontinued at the same nito u in the put fow your Early postwar tonhniel WOOL Current Situation The present world wool stuation abone e bot ter balanco than at any time in the postwar ora Prodnotion and consumption are approximately in lino and slowly ruing, and stock movemonta have tendod to equalzo and stabilizo proer From 1946 up to 1300 world consumption WLK running 21 porcent ahead of produotion. The wartimo shortage of totila and the high levels of real fnoome in the postwar pertod stimulated consumption. This wu medo possiblo by releason trom robotantul stools of British Commonwoulth and other wool. nocuinnlated during the war Tho portwe boom in tertilos wu artended by the strong buying movement which followed to outbrast of the Korcun oonflot For wool It was houghtened by projected largo Kalo stratogio ro- Tama 70 WOOL YOLD PAODUOTION CONTITION AND Aroa Charon ITT 1940/41 1KT/41 113/11 110/80 1150/11 1101/03 1911/ The trio o la han 084 977 8.00 1 000 1 044 1 110 World clip Changes in stools to producing countno and Tommaant benda 1+ —181 — 34 —DO + 10 - + 117 110 1950 1951 I 108 1 168 I 107 I 113 1 097 1 0416 World costumption Changes in soolo monaming countries - - 77 —18 30 110 ·TAD 71 YORLD Tune LX YOOL, BIMOT DOTODER BOTTEOOR brports Joportot POOD Dord topy TA Other Loropo Japan Other Total urta Thomand metre tons de baile 1934 18 ans 118 350 61 40 16 . 196 81 776 0 39 1947/48 1046740 104980 1950781 1981/61 10 100 219 124 212 104 820 578 670 SL 855 716 700) 705 578 600 485 343 370 188 160 Eraladtog wool on to 1 Betaford Insport an er der mer natur to co odontod Exca.O spent the days olukotloo Ieladin D.A.Roladuur J O Matport to ... pohdin main of Owool to Bello my E. Dothu quirements and by tho exhanation of tbo wartime Loomulation During this porlod, tortilo todo stoclan incround who wool pracos adminced gratly Thle bed mille to a larger admlıturo of rabotitutos, not only mungo and shoddy but also of marmado Abery. Hobmequently tho goronal reaction to largo stocks wu a potero oontnotion in wool concomptron. Tho doolmo rouw had beer oren moto Motero particularly in tho United States, had it mot boen for the incrono in military orders off metting. to pomo extent tho decline in civilian demand. The reaction on prices wu oren more marked wool pricou slamped to a fraction of their prorrow pear and this tanded to diacourage wool tortlo boyfog Throughout 1051/62 mill actie Hy remained at a redaced rate with wool con mumption 10 rerernt Lelor current production In 1982/83 the recrulon garo way to grada! rootery Toxullo mocbs haring been worked clown to normal lovels, bomo und export demand improved Confulence tool prices recovered. Gotimmental price rapport operations in the United States and strategic stock perolaring by the United Kinglom contrtbuted to this, as did also the entoal doren ard adjustment of Ar pentine wool prices to world level, through cur rency dostlution There was aloo tbo fart that rool griers had receded to their pre-Korras te lation bip with price for thetles. The pro portion of virgin rool und by tbo roafor rool teruk industries mereud Mign Beenth La 1852 after the rtback of the tuo preceding yran from 491, percent in the first quarter of 1851 it fell continuoul to 57 percent in thn thrl quarter o 1831 and then move to 681 per sent in the first quartet IAIS. Except for a pane in 1947/48, torld rool pro. lution has tworkert gradually throughout the poptoar period to a racord clip (on a alcan bralo) in the 1052/63 von The expansion is mainly attributablo to Britah Ootomonwealth oountries in the Southern Hombaphoto There be boen pomo declino in South American production from tho onceptionally high lovels touched at tho mu of the Yuand the postwar doolloo in North Ames loan production has been proportionately large In recent year thoro baro beon mom edge of regovory in thoro areas. In Europa and the so- Whet Union, the poetwar treod has been upwards as sheen mumbots rocotered from tho wurtimo cleoline Pontmar world trudo in wool han beon largor than prowar Since the whaustion of martimo stocks In 1000 tho inorran oror proper has been about 6 porcent The larger and frtor arailability of Dominion hools har retulted in their ocou pying . lartor share of tho workl market Trado in South American wools has been dorrely at fected by currency and trade diffionities and by attempt to mantan osportyricon abovo the workil Lorel. The brinkage in Argentino shipments in 1951/67 doo to this latter factor reoulted in con biderable stock completion. With the detalu tron of the Argentine pieno for pool oxports in July 18.32 born over these proche were reduced Thero wu generalls - mbtential increio In von! porta in 1852/03 On the demnd side the outstanding letturo has been the increase in Unitei Staten importa to about three times tbour prtner volume During 1039 there were timom when work proces plan the United States tarist NOTO mohut bolon tho United Stater support Itxer and this tended to bring about « displacement of domestic ly forolyn Tools Tbo ming trend of world tool prices throogbout most of tho 18.2163 reason bu bor eter altered the bituation. Among the special 11 ·RUBBER Current Sttuation Industry operated under conditions of Inoreading freedom from government rogalation. At the boginning of the year limitation of tbo total con sumption of rubler (natural and synthetic) mus terminated. By mid 1952, a pria of relaxations relating to the allocation of synthotto rubber to tbo control of natunl robbar and to the roturi of importation of natural rubber to privato trado left natural rabber virtually free from discrimination, apart from national security providons for min imam nego of 510 000 toos of synthoto rubler Actual unago in 1869 totalled 807 000 tons FIGURE 13 - RUBBER PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES AND HALAYA 1949-33 US cont per pound 100 JU-LOHARTUK KALI 10 nu 10 JO 40 UTI 1 10 2 Instability in the world market for natural rub bor hos boer aggravated in rooent youn. Tho bago malo syntbotso rubber industry built up dur ing World War I woull in my ovent havo been . now muro of potential instability but special moururd taken to mouro strategio roquirements, odpocially after the outbroal of the Korean oon fillot and their mubooquent adjustment, havo been the main destabilizing influence Thero hato boen largo non roouoring domands for natural rubber for strategio stockpiling, whilo consumer domand has been mot to an marcord artet by oxpansion in synthetic rubbor output In 1802 stratogio purchases tapered off at the same timo w the full impact on ongmption of the displacemant of natural by synthotto rubber boonme folt Notwithstanding a downturn in production prices for natural rubber rooedod sharply in 1952 Postwur rooovery in natural rubber production w strong until 1840 when it reached 1.8 mil- Hon topu, L., about 50 percent above the promet averago. Recorary took placo in South-Fut Anle, olmowhore production wou doolming though higher than in pronur years In the two following youn, with tho sharp increase in priore attending the outbreak of the Korean wer output roached tho enroeptionally high lorol of almort 1 9 milyon tons The Incroue in supply came largely from Indono sha, whero uma holder output doubled With tho roooulon In demand and falling pricom, produotlan fol to 1.8 million tons in 1952 All tho major producing countries whared in the rotback. It pras, boworer largely concentrated in small bokl ingi tato production in alego and Indonesia *hon od remarkablo resilience Until distorted by strategio roquremate, tho trend of natural rubber consumption ru mod arutely upwards, being rather more marked in Europe than in the United Rtato. A record rol umo of 17 milion tons we reached in 1950 but to the folowing two youn consumption 11er Aged about 1.5 million tons, roughly correspored ing to the lovel of prodaotian prior to tho Korean conflict. The downward adjustment was almost wholly attributable to the United States, whero motrictions on the consumption of rubber favored the synthetio product, whilo purchares of natura! rubber word made for the strateglo stockpilo Elo where consumption has been stadily at about 1 million ton annually over the past threo yan During 1852, bowoter the United Stateo rubber 20 ILOMETE 16 10 n4 1910 22 I. Viel K1X Ko Tt - Non NR IL Hogpont - OJ Smile OR Uued teh After their sharp , downward adjustments of natural rubber proos prooorded a stago farther and nather more sharply in 1952 At the end of tho your thor word not far out of line with pro Korean lorods and more igahi competitivo with prices for tho synthetto product The bulk of synthotlo rubber i produot of United States government-owned Industry It has been nugget od that there are olements of coot sormelly borno by pisato industry which are arotded to govern montal operation. To tho extent that the LM reflected in the syntbotlo rubber price the latter nonot be regarded u truly competitive As it is non intended to turn the industry over to privato hands botrore this problem may bo eroided. 114 ·Outlook Oror the past four years, natural rubber prodoothon ho beto consistently m excets of connomm tlon in 10.39 tho encen amounted to 305,000 tons Tho exces mainly reflected governmental stock pilo purchases u commercial stools have remained TADL 72 Ruolo: WYOLLD PAODUCTIOY LYD COTIDITION 1011 competition with the systbetlo product glita tho more fun blo naturalnynthetio rubber prico relationship At tho same time tho United Btuta has not got iniabod stockpiling Purchaves for thie purpose and by commorciul stock purchasern and opicted to aboorb tho surplus and to provent any further rignificant doolino in prices The abort term outlook may also be influenced by trends in motor car production. Tho Darted States car industry has becs running well above Toplacement roquirements for roronal you and may irerago somowhat lower la tho sean immo diately ahead than recently with consequent of fecto upon the total demand for rabber Surplusos in more immediate years they vary well giro way to deficits in the year further ahead to your of the rlelor long term demand for rubber and tho discouraging trend of current pace on future natural rubber production. Jach do pends on tho trend of privato Inreatment in the United State sa thotio rubber Industry and the prioe ruling woon in privato hando The Inter Dational Rubber Stady Group met in Jay 1033 and discused the possibility of an latarnatiorul commodity Agreement for natural rubber It do cildled, bowoter to postpono a docinop until later in 1833. Production Watural Syatbetle I 816 877 TOTAL 2774 Coonmption : Wtural Hyntbetlo 1 303 9.00 885 TOTAL 2 K01 Balanoo Satural #mtbetto 190 257 TOTAL (for addition to goromet and commercial stocla) BARD FIBERS Current Situation Tbo strong posttrar demand for hard Abons which had been relaforced by gorernmental #ockpiling and by some speculatito purchasing in moto rocrat years abated in 1992 With output main tuned et relatively high level there the MOTIVO INCTC40 in stocles and prices declined sharpis Production of hard Alberi continued in 1902 at * rate about 10 percent above the promar volumr Tbo portrar pattern of output bas altered coorld Tably in laror of simal This is dat not only to relatively stable An increase in consumption and farther decheo la production - expectel to roduct tho kalue to 100 000 tona in 1813 There are properts that natural rubbet win rastoro larger share of the sounding tablet 1486, mpreually m sice of the greater rope for TANLE PRODUCTIO* Or How Frapy THODCOT 1s11 1115 19H 1951 1033 1931 187 180 Abras Bal Herequen Other 130 2728 145 303 103 110 11 104 90 ***** Tota W OTO 08 1 tabi 115 ·TALE 75 LTPORTU OF HARD FIBIO 111-11 1940 1150 1151 111 The norte hoy 18 100 113 Narth Amortos Europo Japan Othor oountria 110 . 0 215 JIB 100 24 0 WORLD TOTAL 640 113 300 800 508 1 Prort op wttata Not malluble the advantageous wartimo location of the man producing arou (08 British East Afrlos) but to toohaid changes in hard flber go and to the fact that she is a non-dollar commodity Philippino abaco output doolinod in 1952 and 1903 largely as a result of tho typboorus Output of do and honequen continuod to increaso in 1962 and stock in Brod Hodoo od in Europe were mounting Efforts to maintain price failed they broke sharply first in mul and later in here quon The importance of North America in world herd Alberi markota has greatly inarcand m postwur your refleoting the grouter orpunon n ign cultural and Industrial output u wroll va substantial volumo of stratoglo stockpiling European and Japanow importa hayo fallod to reach premr volume In 1859 tho mustaining influence of North Amorionn demand wus particularly markod Outlook dependent on international trade was tho bard ost but North Amarlos, howevor was loos affect od by the shrinking markot. Tho demand for notyprint continuod at high lovol throughout 1902 Prioed of most forest products woro subject to markod fluotuations in 1980-83 Fear of hort uge follos mg the outbreak of the Koroun war led to boary buylag nth oonddarablo increased in Importon stock, and durmg 1801 tbare was an un procedented riro in prioes By tho end of 1851 importing countries, fortified by nonly acoumulat od stocks, woro beginning to rouot against tho high level of prices The market doudoned, and prioos took a violent downward turn in 1862 oroopt in North Amerion. Any hopes that European prio would quickly stabilizo at ronsonablo lovol were frustrated by . real roduction in demand, capo lally for pulp and peper othor than nowoprint, that accompanied the chook in tho general rato of ovanomio growth which occurred in 1002 Though awnwood prioen hed steadlod by mid your It #u dot until the closing months that the European pulp markot bogun to manifest Armor ton deaalos Prioo fluctuations were much more volont in countries and roglon which dopend groatly on International trdo than in moro soll u cant regions Yhoreat most of the North Amorloon production of forcat products u consumed in tho United States, more than one-third of tho Europou output outart the international market Jloroover while colling prioos oro entablubod in the United States for most forest prodaots dur ing the general boom period prloo formation wu left troo tn Europe and most other parts of tho world. Figure 14-10 show the courto of poloog for lawnwood wood polp and pulp producto In these two main regions dumg the partod 1950- 1852 Wybolovalo pricon for wowood in the United Output appour to be adjusting trolf falrty napidly to the changed market atation with a roduction of perhaps 10 parpent in prospoot for 1803 On the other hand, damand may now bo erpected to improve amce there has been no dgnif loant doolme in oonnumer demand for oordage and oordage stocks are being roduoed Stockpiling for strategio roparyos which 200ounted for perhape 10 percent of total offtako in provioo yoon may also continue Competition betwoon produoen how erer promises to be more intenso than in earlier Trontmar youn and production of high cost producen u likely to all. FOREST PRODUCTS The year 1802 martod the first worlota post war reconcion in the tndo of moet categories of forest producto cicopt now sprint Europo highly 116 ·FIGURE 16 - PRICES OF YOOD PULP 1950-53 HATH 4 ID 1 19 31170 m MO K.1 1 4 ha. trint fri Aparat Stater and Canada achitida peak in 1959 of 3) to 40 percent alort their Jaguars 1950 lerol, bat Bwedbh and Finnih esport prices at their hiçbert in 1031/62 were about double tboro attain ed in Janmary 1950 The greates dependence of European countries both importing and sport ing, on trade in Annwood nu responsible for the contrast to the movement of Artwood prices In Aurth Amera and in Europe FIGURE 14 - PRICES OF SAWN SOFT- IVOOD 1050-6 ng REU Arerur serek price from porter to v boller From tudni pre board, 1 n, teset, for contraction Awal Arren etbert print to be bu! 14 T tu. red med / U od 1. Welke Douglas F Du. PTD til 1 1 Fetret T1 talpbete. Dabludd. nport. tak Pa I Meactul natpbib ber than nu pula. Erport L. Dorthe metteul oud-palp. Did It irt Damothe EU Can Follte. Sincant tot ni tuk me dourtt. Tam Go Dotte Prien, nupatta, TK Bebed, trte at lokun tattoo Frakt able to better and sellers alike It is generalls igreed that or sharp advance is likelt to proroko consumer resistance Both importing and sport ing countries hope that the prevent Lorel will prote stable and give the marhet that confidence which hu been so conspicuouls lacking in the last two yen. A beret rerlow of production and trade trend for the major group of forest products is given beloner Roundupood The contrast rus eten moro marked in pulp (sco Figure 15) The bigger Europene paper prodocon deperd largely on imported pulp and pulpwood. In 1951 both pulp and pulpwood prices mo rapidly in Europe and in tho importing coantres paper producern found it difficult to compete with imported paper the price of which had not rkeen to tbe mame extent Paper importo mere curtailed in Frusce for instance pretiorely lifted Import datter of palp products were reimposed With prices of imported palp raing there nu greater rerourne to lower priced domestle pals Pulp price in Worth America reamer remart abis stends througbout 1931 and 189, after the Tume of some ) percent in the latter hall of 1851 and the first quarter of 1991 (Fleure IJ) The rela tito adrence in European polp export prices from January 18 to Jlareh 1931 Wan roughls the fame in spite of the extraordinars fuctuatkoo in 1831 and 103 United Statex newpoint pokes advanced in 1859,31 and again in 18% by . Ittle more tban tbe mood peh price increase By the middle of 1813 format producte prices ha Eurore memed to have trached level secept The production of indo trial roadrool in 1952 mas maintained chlefty due to raw material pur chares for 185* and 1953 production being made carlier while tbo demand we still trong Pro doction in 19.32 k otimated to be about the namo u in 10 and lightly aboro Il The increuse in output of rodendrood in \orth Amerku, due to a rise in vlog output nu offset br decreve in Europe In 1952, the European market for forest products declined at a time ben mubatan tial net supplies were reaching bodutry and recordingls purchases of new ny material for 1853 and 1854 were beasily curtailed With demand falling off stocka pero redace. Thi, teodency mus reinforced as replacement cot of 11 materials also fell. The fall in loond mood pro duction Ten mainly in moftwoods Loreo TTT 117 ·in Europe 195 thero me, in gerletal, un almost comploto abronco of my competition botoran diferent categories of roundhood The alight nko in the demand for pitprop. normally pulpmood. strongost compotitor mus much too wurk to compensato to any great ortent for the fall in tho domand for other outegorio. Large roi matorial stocks in most foregt n dustries at tho turn of 1862 acquired in Europe at prices somonhat higher than those now rullng mkou it probablo that the output of industrial roundwood m 1053 will remain rather low Oven If the market for forest produotu strengthens to Hards the end of the your Tho supply atustion to mort indostries to likely to Lo falrly mattlactory batil 1804 An up mulation of stoala in importing countries, wl unprecedented risen to prices, acept in North Amerta. Honour consumers rodstanoo to high pizoot, doveloped in the summer of 1001 rouobod high point by the end of 1951 In 1962, the general slackoning of the coonamio activity in mort countries added weight to this contumor resetanco Though tndo wou ed somo rorival fo the summer of 1982, aftor the sharp fall in prices, It rtin romainod at . nther low level uning In European Indo come in the autumn of 1852 when the United Kingdom oommonood Largo salo purohudng for 1863 thoroutter this trond lovelled off the resulting rise in pricou continueul until the end of 1032 when they poemod to bavo more or loca stalized at a loval somo 20 percent below the previous top prions Other importing countries aboo bogan purobaring for 1903 and bud nem gonerally ru rathor bruk until the end of Aprill 1953 by which timo most of tho awanood availablo in the main European exporting oorn trvog had been sold So far us intor regionaltrado la concorniod, tho alfoots of 1851 ovorbuying appeur not to have been overomo and trado rematou at Alor lorol Babanoo of payments difficulties and shortage of foreign ourrondon, partioularly of dolen alao contribute to this low lorol of activity Imports of uwo rottwood (Tablo 70) in 1868 word 4.44 milhon std. (1 od 4678 ou m) AB against 8 08 million ode in 1951 and exports foll from 8 86 million stdin 1901 to 4.44 million Sawritood International trudo in new wood, partloularly poftroods, reached a partner peak to 1851 bat cunod off by 1802 (Tablo 76 ) In North Amor ice domand had declined rathor atceply in 1881 Trborous in Europo trado was booming and approuobod pronu figure. In region such Austra ina and Africa, which Largely depend on imported supplion, the volume of trado in rewawood was almo on a high lovol All thoro trend were bow over roverhed in 1852, demand roriving in North Amerloo but showing marked fall in Europe and other regions In 1981 tbore nu in sou TAL 76. WORLD TRADE DI SAWAWOOD Bom dottwood de Hardwood EDHOY 19.30 1981 1981 101 1931 151 The onlar ErrorTO Europo 1 North and Contrat Artorio South Amotion 1 020 1 080 2 710 1 210 HO 1 100 10 200 OTO 700 180 460 000 1150 190 100 WORLD TOTAL 4 010 8 30 4 440 3 970 1 720 1040 Іноді Europe North and Central Amorton South America Africa Ooounta 16.30 165 310 140 110 3 990 1 210 210 no 110 00 1 640 i no 170 DO 180 90 1 000 780 00 1 20 780 00 240 1 070 690 70 1900 70 100 170 I TO Wall TOTAL 4 675 6 080 4 40 7 000 2 070 1 H0 1 Ropati ootatat caly 1 Lite 119 ·Tana 7 EXON OF BAN BOTTIMOD Cenda Uut Metod Lero ThrO TTD TO I 1131 1131 1053 1757 1951 Thund wudary 145 0 478 113 11 1 971 3 03 67 190D I 1841 13 B 400 3 1 1996 121 738 61 R 00 3 Europo 1 Tortb Amore Latin Amerion udale Futter and Vorth Atti an countriel Union of South Afria Australia Otbt countric 10 36 120 19 3 37 0 179 1 40 7 31 31 8 110D NI 18 18 3 21 3 219 +6 0 461 873 07 9 13B 1 739 313 1 -76 3 2 2100 1 8800 TOTAL trope Aditrie Belstato, Lambon De merk inland. The West ma derasny Inkrd. ILAW N theranda Xony, wideo, wlperend. Your Une Thorson oludes perte to count of weten Europe tro Cadoulomak, DTDDY Pola Boma, U...6th u reported by ito portior omtree TADLE TYORLD ProDUCTTQX or SAWXWOOD BATX borvoo JAN HAD OOD HADION 11 1001 1732 1950 1991 Thousand sandards Thond er m. 19 8 600 18 670 600 190 Europo arth and Contml Armerice Routh America Alma Ade QOLLA A 200 18 230 1 130 *** 8 000 19 687 1 430 B 200 10 300 1 350 13 7200 780 010 190 2400 2 800 3000 4190 I 020 + 20 1 201 3410 TOTAL 31 0 31 100 3 600 3.3 100 37 110 35 0.0 1 Rorthe wountri toly Inchor state for pomportar entre ta Estero Europarent Lantern Corony XU: 6. R- Total wood (softwoud end hardwood) ho (1 standard - 1.512 cm.) - 1.10 181 00 , 1151 117 171.00 112.00 Atds in 1952, inter regional trdo declinmg rela tirely most The corresponding Ann hardrood trado figurer rero 224 million cum la TAJ: and 207 million ou m in 1831 for imports and 904 million cu. m. In 1952 and 72 salfllon CU m in 1951 for exports. Au born in Table 77 shipments from Europe und from the United States 10 other reglona WeTO markelis loret Carudian erorts, on the con ny rere generally fairly well maintained both to the Unrted State and to more di tant martet The lon demand in 1939 led to a percent clecline in the world output of Hasbrood, with the relatiro decline lightlr Larger in hard rood than in rottwood Despite the recent decline in workl trade and per loction of raramod, there i no me on to belte that the long term trend in demand hus taken a downward tumn Tho world, total roquim ments of Amarool are likely to contrar to Tbo developments of 1952 mos bo regard N in temporary doration from tbo goneral trend caured by consumers reactions to high pri But though total requirements appear to be increuing, comuumphon per bead meems alrculy to here renebed its madmum in the most impor tant mynwood consaming regional & likely to obom * abght gradual declino in the future Wood Palp and Pulp Products 1852 marked the fint poster tettsion In de mand for pulp and repor This wu duo to tho nather high level of stocbs at the end of 1831 and tbe unpreendentel high prieen at that time can ing contumst 1 ymistance toward, products of tho 110 ·paper and lourd Industry and pup milk The reduction in Indnstrial activity also meant rodeoer 000sumption of bound and wrapping grudhat of paper since those aro mod in almost overy moc tor of the coonomy Altbough the demand for mont pulp producta derlined that for non sprint continued at a rather high lovel througbout 182 and tho Artt months of 1903 In North Amerno pruh prioo controle shocked prio fluctuations and the market oondoquently romamed furly stable In Europe how over hopes dan caly stabilization of perfoo lorols following . dolino in purchases and shimologo of stocka, did not acour The slowing down of Industrial progress brought dificulties in the paper und board Industrie und led to . lal in damad Not FIGURE 16 PRICES OF NEWSPRINT 1950-53 TARLA 70 IYORLD PRODUOTIOX or YOOD Porr Popx 11.00 1113 + FUD AR and States Europe Finland, Norway Brodon U 8.&R TRA Canada Latin America Asia (erol Chine) Athos Ocenis 8 01 10 007) D 711 (6 087)) ( 0.39) (800) il 600 11 800 19 000 13 471 14 004 14 000 7 403 8 16 7 970 180 184 1200 1 170 325 125 16 18+ #160 1 012 4 Xo ITORLD TOTAL 3 DOC 37 000 100 ulardt Namrat, port, LA) hace Do Detle prian, tar Devipstat U te st ta Xorlat mudard roll freight allosed, contruct price NI i Attronte until the last quarter of 1852 du parloes show algos of any levelling off By than, box over it was generally conooded that they noro wall bolow otu rent production costs, many clomonte of which Aro temporarily furach, og, roundwood prloon, or nghi, e sonnages In the latter hall al 1852 thara foro prodotton wu roluntarily restricted in the main Excopern pulp exporting countries and in general it remained at a rather low lovel during TADLE 90 WORLD TRAD) IX Wood Puur ROTOT 1016 1.31 105 There were morno parallobs in the demand and prico trends of the pulp and paper industries In North American and Europe but the Enropean market fluctuatod MOTO violently The North American continent is generally self-muincent and forogn trade u marginal Tho great degreo of mtegration in the United States pulp and paper industrien resulting in smaller volumo of market pulp, coupled with the fact that Canadian mond pulp « largely dovoted to nesprint demand for which remained fring stablo heto mainly respon Able for to relatively greater stability of the Worth American wood paip market In Europa tho major part of pulp production I for the market The higgent peper products depend largely on importer pulp Only the three Torthern countries haro considerablo export of pulp al for these countriea pulp asporto aro illal The world demand for wood polp and pulp prodocto had, in 1831 cuccoded the available supply aml pericci rope to imprecedentedly bugte basele Tho atcep ske m Enropean pulp prices, hich reached their marimum in January 1832, led the chlef European Importers embarimad by now Lalance of pements dificulties, to set import price ceiling Other importing couptries and I arriso Au a result nen buying my checked production fell and consumen begun to dnp on stocka Erports Europe Canada 3 970 [ 601 J 331 I 761 TYD TOTAL 6 720 5 2.00 Imports Europa U.S. Latin Ameria 3 000 1 104 317 3 408 1 146 1 755 L. WORLD TOTAL 0 130 . 170 5 000 I taste 120 ·tbo first quarter of 1893 although demand in ly then beginning to repito Morld pulp production (inclaling sinuated outpat in the U88.R.) attained in all time high of 37 million tons in 1931 bat droppel alightly in 195, epecially in the foundinarian countries. Imports also fell by « mon ton u comparel with 1851 (Table 80), the biggest declines being re. corded in Europa und tho USA The main bunden of tho reduced export trado sus bordo by Filand, Lorny and Sweden, whomo exports fell about 20 percent Canadian Ijrorts also dropped. Both exports and importa of wood pulp however fell by about a million tons to a lorel bell a mil lion tons below that of 1850 The efforts made in all regionu doco tho ond of the war to nie trulp prodaction have increured regional solf-safficiency Just us the progrew of Integration he dimin ebedi tho relatiro importance of market pulp on tbo national level, mollarly tho need to rouro comer tlo ropplies of the emontial raw material, hu on the international level, reduced the importance of pulp trade in relation to world pulp output Imports of palp for many countries with notable Icopthors, become steadily log important Along. aldo the development, the altuation of those countries abowo economic lho dopenda on pulp Iports become more yolvorable to futsations in world domand. on output fell from 0 80 million tons in 1031 to 60 million tons in 1939 The year 1032 witneamed a rappearance of the short working weak in some countries and a par tlal oloring down of mills Events romal to mug gent that tho palp and paper abortago which hail been apercut all over the world for moneral years, and which bert bect regardel i llkely to last well into the future rus a posing phun ankl that arlier arrrohenerons wero unjustified. This, bon ote nas taking carly tho short term Tier It ia more acounto to regard tho 101/5 phenomena Han inevitablo offoct of the Korcio ar infla tion and of the abouing dorn of indantrial Progreen Takmg long form stew there are verdral factors making for a steady see in the demand for wood pulp and pulp products through, for OIAmple Inoreuning industrialization and the progressivo liquidation of literacy and the general no in populatzon, real income and contamption mtand ands. Even in parts of Furopo por capot con rumption to all bobow the prowar lovol. Con mmption is generally expected to continue to increase in the United States though at a lower ruto than in recent year For all the reasons tho recenson in tho world demand for pulp and paper may bo rogeriled w a puning photo and a temporary dorlation from the long term up ward trend. Whilo world truda und outpat of rood pulp thus thorod A datinct declino in 1852, non sprint abon od an incre Torld output, whicb in 1951 had been 80 malson tomu, rowo by 0.3 million in 1952, and exports which in 1931 mere LB millon toru increuad by 0.3 million. Au repult of there increases and with an apparenth falrhs tablo nato of consumption, stocks of now point reuched postwar record leteli in many countries and regions, notably in North Ameria The map ply of netprint in 1852 wu for the first time in poteral yean adequate to meet the effectivo demand Production and trado la other peperu anul boards princhpully packaging frides, declined Prodac tion and trade in fiber balding boarde which had Lem meadily expanding since tho end of the wat raffered its Ant post ar rotback in 103: This mealon ns lete ROTTO In Sarth froerkt tban in Europe World production of filer bound fell from 2-3 million tons In 1951 to 1 mil bon tons in 1932, the lorth American share me malain unchanged at about 1 4 million tons In the rest of the workl, notably in Earope which h more dependent on international trade filet FERTILIZERS The treod towards the greater we of fortilizers In all parts of the world continued in 1932/63 Thos tendency is specially markel in countries hero commercial fortilizers have been tuxed rela tirely littlo bithorto Goromments of many coun tries show Increasing Interest in tho wo of forthlı e und manures u one of tho quickest means of getting increased prodoction of food crops Production and consumption returns of fer tilizen in 1932/03 arc kill incomplete wul total figures cannot yet bo giren. Tbo porcentage figurn given below may botorer botaken as traron ably good approadmations being derived from returns catering most of the countries of high production and consumpeion. The total proalue tion of nitrogen (1) phospboric acid (P O) Anil potush () in 1932/63 ibon an increase of u percent orer that for the pretious year The world production of nitrogen (V) shot in exti mated increase in 1932/63 of 9 percent over 1001/ 1852. Too biggest increure wat in lorth America (14 percent) Condilerable interest is being shown la the prodaction on aitrogen fertilliety in the 121 ·JOI: Шал до дидшасtого U pod the removal of restrictions on some nonly ed matorials in the main producing counti As tho Unitod States, indicate that sup generally match the vlerand It bome portant, capocially for countries obstant to Lacing content to place orları canly and thi hortages FARM MACHINERY ery warto gus u Murto OLUR (anu VIJU phor) but no plant has got becn orectod in this roglon. Output of phosphorio acid woned 20 incronne of about 8 poroont for 102/03 for tho world a wholo reflecting nomo essing in the Houte shortero of sulphur sich rue responsiblo for restrioting tho mandacture of suporphosphate in the propious year Somo acid plants werd adapted to do pyrites instead of olamontul mal phor and dotolopment work tres continued on tho manufacture of phosphatto fortilizers lr proco dot requiring mphar lho incroeso in world production of potah in 1062/63 oror 2051/ 1962 is ostimated to hard born ore 10 percent The consomption in 1952/03 of plant nutrionto in the form of oommerolal fertilizers to antimated to havo Inoroued by about 10 percent orar the previous your Nitrogen sbom the highest orer all increase about 14 porcent with phosphorlo add And potuch 8 percent and 9 porcant rospectively Thoro uro of corn, big variations in the nato of Increase in different parts of the norke. Some of the newly doroloping countries abor rotatiroly high rate but highly dovolopod comtries with old establuhod and relatively intensivo Frioul turo hero ab incroured their constumption con alderably in the United States for oxample oon sumption of nitrogen Increased by 16 porcent and in the United Kingdom tho incredino 16 percent Tbo outlook for the immodiato futuro is for contintrod in Tee In consumption of a plant nutrients at nated cloco to thone xborn in recent your end for produotion to inoroase, at kast for the nort for roar, at ratos suffiotent to cover the increased domand Workl production and orports of tric 1852 fell conaldorably short of tho reco in 105] Errupsion In bomo European o was moto than ofiwot by tho decimo of pror in tho United States and United Kingdom. tor numbers in twoulture hou omor con to increase in all regions, including the ect cally moder-dorolopod parts of the worki a shorer mto than in 1861 Production and Export of Tractors The production of troton in tho United (nee Tablo 81) in 1954 was 23 percent lew tb 1951 Thi, deolino mus in part due to the porary steel abortugo erlaing out of tho stool at Exporte, mostly ab orbed by Canada and I Amortaa, xhonod an oven moto subitantial clme, dropping from 101,165 units for 103 72,881 in 10.52 TANLY 31 TRAOTOX PRODUCTION DE LALX PRODUODO COUNTRID COMET II 1.51 1. PESTICIDES 43 60 81 20 90 1 USA United Kingdom W Cortany Fruto NO la 19 91 TOTAL 713 31 60 C Tho kupply situation for nearly all poslucides wu utiduotory in 1802, with tho cxcoption of nulphur which has been in abort rapply form number of yar Tho tuo of pestiadas in steadily increasing froduction could koop paco mth dornand it consum ont would mako known their noch in advanco in order to allow timo for poroduotion, formulation and shipment Tho 1gov domand u mot in. mtuinctory mermer primarily boceto of the wido acceptance of reoontly dovolopod pestiction which, bering outgrown the orparimental stage were wned perthy u mesthuta for and partly us nup plements to tbo oblet pestidden In the Unitod Kingdom, the 1902 trotor pa duction was about 11 percent loor than in t] prorlous your Exporti, borator decreased b only 7 por cont Over 1951 boonuse of the contin uod poloy of wdlgning priority to production fo 122 ·Tau 2 Tugon Errom Ix 1082 Courtnts of the Iagonal total Import Rusom OT DODATION UK TDOO V Germany US 13 764 49 818 1 099 07 450 2 73 82 46 3.03 17 607 8 64 Europe North Amoros Latin Amorice 3 18 19 787 4 011 27 480 1 1 4.9 2013 103 Far East 110 14 10 Tar Eut 1 10 0007 1 003 1 082 4 018 12 70A Afrou 0 060 141 3 VOS 501 Qocanla 7 2018 3 031 82 13 17 Unlmow 104 911 4 240 .14 707 71 881 TOTAL TOA world reports to 1953: 330 1% maits. ciport Approximately 85 percent of the total production was arportech prindjally to Enropo und Ocounle. In tho Fedoral Ropabllo of Gormang tho truc tor industry continued in 1852 tho appard trond observad since the end of the mur settingDe production record, 17 porcent over tho proviaria year Exporta Inceared oten moro significantly and wero 21 percent higher than in 1BJ1 Bubstantial amounts of Chormany's otporto vero abmorbod by other European countries, Argentina and Turkey France produoed in 1952 approximately 60 per cent more tractor than in 1051 and surpassed the 1919 record. Approximately 14 percent of the moduotion ww orported, mostly to other Eurorean countrion and French colonies in Afrion. Italy continued Ite forcign trado drito osporting about 2,700 tractors in 1952, with Europe and Latin American us the most important markets Canades esports amounted to about 0,100 tractot tbo major proportion of which were sold to tho United States und imeller amounts to Latin Americ Bmall numbers al tructori memo alio esported by Bueden, Czechoslorakia Austria and the ot berlanda Latin America continued ita procent of ratho npld mechanization whilah is fairly evenly prou througbont most of tho region, oren though in porte, at 27 000 wore approciably lows than th year boforo Prmalpel importers were Argentina (8 000) Bradl (7 000) and Borloo (8 000) By tho end of 1952 tboro wuro estimated to bo arounil 170 000 tractor in this region. Considerablo prog ron has been mado in many countries in the ostabliment of facilities for training operators and mochania and most countrian hero establlober agricultural machinery pools whoroby small farm en can guin scoou to the uno of farm machinery Tractor pumbers in tho Far Fart Inoroaned only rety slightly during tho your with importa at about One-third of the 1951 lovol Unlllo Latin Amer ica, whoro truoton aro Loing ubod primarily for utual farming operations and ato montly individ. Dally owned, a largo proportion of the tractors ure la ported and wod on gorunment account mainly for land roclamation and cleuinco and the initial tilling of such land boforo it in handed over to amall cultiratare. This oqulpmont is utilizel by central organisations which control the oper ation, servicing maintonance and repair Gen erally peaking the tochnial and economic diffi cultier d using mechanlıod equipment for farm ing are very great in this region and more atten tion needs to be given to the improvement Anul effectho use of animal dom and bani perated implemento Tractor numbers increased salatantlalls in the lear East where importa merr nearly 80 percent Mechanization Newly Developing Region The number of tncton imported into tho under developed artus showed a marked decreto com pared with 1851 Leing about 50 000 units les than the record level of the pretten har 123 ·Thus rut principally due 100 mochanization program of Turkoy which took approximately 40 percent of the regional imports In Africa, honoror the increure doring tho year wu tery slight, Imports dropping to al most half the 1931 figure On the whole progress has bon made during 1052 in providing the facilities and the training that is needed for the effective introduction of mochanization into agriculturo. FAO ha dorod major assistance in this respoot in 1 East, notably to India, Pakistan and a in tho Mar East This existanco Inclur dordlopment of field services to ensure full e ment of machinory organization of adequato shop practices improvement of small in farm imploments and training of toohnlaio auch of these folds TABLE 83 \Urı or TRACTORS USSD IX AXIOULTUUT Raios 011 Europe 1994 Tarth Amortos 1031 Latin Ameron 830 Thwaite 1911 Par East 3 BIO 300 ear Eart +374 99 120 + 270 Afrian Oceania 13 20 163 73 166 124 88 33 TOTAL 8 100 im 11 51. tol. U. Iwd trotaru only sa roveremont ftations in Obna. 19 88.99 61

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·higher than in 1951 This was principally due to the mechanization program of Turkoy which took approximately 30 percont of the regionu importo Ln Africa, homotor the inorear during tho year was very light imports dropping to al mort half the 1931 figure On the whole, progress has been mado daning 1952 in providing the facſlities and the training that is needed for the effectiro introduction of mochanization into agricultura FAO ha dered major asistenco In this rompoot in 1 East notably to India Pakistan and C, in tho Near East This wristanco includ development of field services to ensure fulle ment of machinery organization of adeqr wlop practices Improvement of small in farm implemonts and training of tochnic each of these field TABLE 83 UX or TRACTORS USED EX ATOULTURE PLEONO 1031 Eurupo 1 Tortlı Amorion Latin America Par East 1933 880 3 919 200 +1+ 1 12 ar East As tro 12 Africa Oceania 13 20 183 10 73 8A 39 TOTAL 142 100 10 - 82 1 Ecol. U.I.R. Inetudin motor oly a rovinorent staloos to de 5 889 ·APPENDIX Note on Indices of Agricultural Produc tion The present index number series of the rolume of agricultural production represents farther de velopments of the series appearing in The State of Food and Agriculture Renew and Oullont 19 Tho anulability of more and Lettet statis tler has made it possible to include morcmm modities and to adjust the series more closely to a concept of Det produetion. This yeur tho folowing additional commodities have been included fruits vegetables, all dalry products (otprowed in terms of milk equivalent) poultry and eggu Tho commodity groups included we u folor grains, starchy roots rogar pulscub, oil crope, noto, frolte, regolables wine live stock and brestock products fibers, rubber bever age crops and tobacco The index series thus Includes all tho principal food and agricultural commodities, with the exception of fishery and forestry productı. An commodities are included in the Inder at the farmgate level except in the Cur of livestock production, where the individual items are locładed in terms of meat and fat rather than in terms of total animal arcan welght and in tho mures of ol, wine and sogar To provent double couuting an aloxance is mado for all crops and us foed, both from Indig enous production and importe A deduction la alto marle for corrals and potatoma uurd na 1 further allowanco la ma'lr for shim mil Theor fore and aroul dreIntiina mot leen mailo for Africa cate of the larl data Intlın cave of northern anii muthern Fai alleittonal deductions were made for feculs such as ollcakes and bran loth from meatic production and importa Tone of t allowances were made in the 122 Inder my Tho wrighting muntem lar period and atat cal formula arc centually unchanged from 10. rcrici The weighting Agrict * forex Wheat relativo prico wcightncxisting in the 107 perfol. The commoditt weights are derived from world prices In the care of manr e ities these pricci aru the average prices ing countries adjusted to weighted average national prices in leading producing count For thous commodities Dot moring to amounta in international trade or where conalt largely of special quality reretler weis Averages of national prices in leading prodt countries havo been bred. Calculating each modity price in terms of gold franes per m ton automatically establishes its price to wheat since the prica of a metrio ton of in tho buvo ponod was 100 gold francs. Tho FAO indor numbers are laxed general the fire-year period 1031-39 In the 1952 1 reria this bako mu qed for All countries Fear or options have been modo in some coun to allow for abnormal conditions that in the 1031-38 period. The main onceptions Bpain 1931-30 Australis 1030-31 and Ce Now Zoaland Statc 1035-38 Escoept U.B.BR, which woludes fruits, mutu sine vegetables, cu od tobacco and store the coverage of the other proape is also incompleto and Eutern Europe wbors on and vegetable aro em cluded.